US consumer confidence rises to 110.7 in Dec

    US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose from 101.0 to 110.7 in December, above expectation of 103.9. Present Situation Index rose from 136.5 to 148.5. Expectations Index rose from 77.4 to 85.6.

    “December’s increase in consumer confidence reflected more positive ratings of current business conditions and job availability, as well as less pessimistic views of business, labor market, and personal income prospects over the next six months,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

    “While December’s renewed optimism was seen across all ages and household income levels, the gains were largest among householders aged 35-54 and households with income levels of $125,000 and above. December’s write-in responses revealed the top issue affecting consumers remains rising prices in general, while politics, interest rates, and global conflicts all saw downticks as top concerns. Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months abated in December to the lowest level seen this year—though two-thirds still perceive a downturn is possible in 2024.”

    Full US consumer confidence release here.

    Bundesbank’s Nagel cautions against premature ECB rate cut expectations

      Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has issued a warning to investors and analysts anticipating an early interest rate cut by ECB.

      In an interview, Nagel emphasized the importance of maintaining the current interest rate levels to ensure the effective management of inflation. “We must initially remain at the current interest rate plateau so that monetary policy can fully develop its inflation-dampening effect,” he stated.

      Nagel’s cautionary words to those speculating on an imminent rate cut were stark: “Be careful, some people have already miscalculated that.” However, Nagel did acknowledge that interest rates have likely reached their peak, suggesting that while an immediate rate reduction may not be on the horizon, the period of aggressive rate hikes should have come to an end.

      Germany’s Gfk consumer climate rises to -25.1, consumers still have major worries

        Germany’s Gfk Consumer Climate for January rose from -27.6 to -25.1. In December, income expectations rose from -16.7 to -6.9. Willingness to buy rose from -15.0 to -8.8. Willingness to save rose from 5.3 to 7.3.

        “It remains to be seen whether the current increase represents the start of a sustained recovery in consumer sentiment,” explains Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at NIM.

        “Consumers still have major worries. Geopolitical crises and wars, sharply rising food prices and discussions around national budget for 2024 continue to cause uncertainty. As a result, the level of consumer sentiment is currently still very low.”

        Full German Gfk consumer climate release here.

        UK CPI slows to 3.9% yoy in Nov, core CPI down to 5.1% yoy

          UK CPI slowed from 4.6% yoy to 3.9% yoy in November, below expectation of 4.3% yoy. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) slowed from 5.7% yoy to 5.1% yoy, below expectation of 5.5% yoy. CPI goods fell from 2.9% yoy to 2.0% yoy. CPI services also fell from 6.6% yoy to 6.2% yoy.

          ONS noted, “The easing in the annual inflation rates reflected downward contributions from eight divisions, most notably transport, recreation and culture, and food and non-alcoholic beverages. There were no divisions with large offsetting upward effects.”

          On a monthly basis, CPI was down -0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom rise.

          Full UK CPI release here.

          Australia’s Westpac leading index climbs to 0.3%, signaling stabilization, not an upturn

            Westpac Leading Index in Australia showed an encouraging rise from -0.39% to 0.30% in November, marking the first positive, above-trend reading since mid-2022. However, Westpac cautioned that this uptick might be influenced by temporary factors. Also, the shift in underlying momentum, as RBA’s tightening begins to slow, is seen more as a stabilization rather than the start of an upturn.

            Further, Westpac highlighted weaker conditions in the domestic sphere, particularly impacting the household sector. This weakness is expected to continue into the first half of next year. Hence, Westpac anticipates that barring a “truly disastrous” December quarter CPI update, RBA is likely to maintain its current policy in the upcoming February meeting.

            Full Australia Westpac leading index release here.

            Japan’s divergent export trend: 26 months of US growth, 12 months of China decline

              Japan’s trade statistics for November were, marked by a slight decline in exports and a more significant drop in imports. Exports fell marginally by -0.2% yoy, totaling JPY 8829B, marking the first drop in three months.

              A closer look at export destinations shows contrasting trends. Exports to US continued to grow, marking a 5.3% increase and extending the expansion streak to 26 months. In contrast, exports to China fell by -2.2%, continuing a downward trend for the 12th consecutive month. One of the most notable declines was in food shipments, which plummeted by -60.3%, significantly impacted by China’s ban on Japanese seafood imports.

              On the import side, Japan saw a more pronounced decline of -11.9% yoy, with total imports amounting to JPY 9597B. This reduction in imports contributed to a trade deficit of JPY -777B for the month.

              When adjusted for seasonal variations, exports dropped by -1.8% mom to JPY 8567B, and imports decreased by -2.7% mom to JPY 8976B. Consequently, trade deficit narrowed from JPY -501B to JPY -409B.

              Full Japan trade statistics here.

              RBNZ’s Orr highlights struggle with core inflation and migration impact

                RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, in his address to a parliament select committee today, emphasized there is “still a long way to go” to curb inflation. He added, “it’s core inflation that’s going to be our challenge ahead”.

                Orr also noted the complexity of this challenge, pointing out that much of the core inflation factors are entrenched within central and local government influences, including rates and taxes. He cautioned that tackling these elements in the “last five yards on the inflation battle is going to be tough.”

                Adding to the economic challenges, Orr highlighted the current record-high levels of net inward migration in New Zealand. This surge in migration has surpassed RBNZ’s expectations and presents additional complexities for monetary policy, housing demand, asset prices, and the general inflation outlook.

                Regarding the country’s economic growth, Orr mentioned that GDP was “surprisingly subdued,” with a contraction of -0.3% in Q3. He indicated that RBNZ is internalizing this complex situation and will provide more detailed insights in their monetary policy statement due in February.

                Fed’s Goolsbee cautions against market euphoria on rate cuts

                  Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, in an interview with Fox News overnight, said that investors might be “a little ahead of themselves” with their “euphoria” as stock markets surged to record highs following Fed’s announcement last week.

                  Goolsbee did acknowledge that if inflation continues its downward trend towards target, Fed might reassess its restrictive stance. “If inflation continues to come down to target, then the Fed can reconsider how restrictive it wants to be,” he stated.

                  However, Goolsbee was clear in emphasizing Fed’s independence, asserting that the central bank will not be “bullied” by market pressures.

                  Fed’s Barkin seeks consistency and breath in disinflation for policy decisions

                    Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, acknowledged that the Fed is making “good progress” in its efforts to bring down inflation.

                    However, he pointed out that the economic data has been somewhat erratic, emphasizing his desire for “consistency” and “breadth” in the inflation metrics. He explained that he is looking for “consistency around our target and a broad-based disinflationary set of results.”

                    On the topic of interest rate cuts, Barkin’s stance was cautious and data-dependent. He suggested that a response from Fed would be appropriate if inflation trends downwards as hoped. However, he stressed the unpredictability of economic data

                    “If you’re going to assume that inflation comes down nicely, then, of course, we’d respond appropriately. You know, I don’t assume what the data is going to do. We’ll see what happens,” he said.

                    Fed’s Bostic: No rush to cut rates, eyes second half of 2024 for easing

                      Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized a lack of urgency in cutting interest rates, projecting potential rate reductions only in the second half of 2024.

                      In an event overnight, Bostic expressed his view that inflation is likely to decrease gradually over the next six months. This outlook underpins his stance that there is no immediate need to deviate from the current restrictive monetary policy.

                      “For me, I’m thinking inflation is going to come down relatively slowly in the next six months, which means there’s not going to be urgency for us to pull off our restrictive stance,” he stated.

                      Bostic anticipates that Fed might implement two rate cuts in the latter half of 2024. However, he clarified, “It is not like there has been an active discussion on this.”

                      Highlighting the prevailing economic uncertainties, Bostic advocated for a “cautious but resolute” approach. This strategy involves a resistance to reacting hastily to individual data points and instead focuses on making sure “the trends are really trends.”

                      Canada CPI unchanged at 3.1% yoy in Nov, vs exp 2.9% yoy

                        Canada CPI was unchanged at 3.1% yoy in November, above expectation of 2.9% yoy. Higher prices for travel tours put upward pressure on CPI. Offsetting the upward pressure was slower price growth for food alongside lower prices for cellular services and fuel oil. Excluding food and energy, CPI accelerated from 3.4% yoy to 3.5% yoy.

                        CPI median was unchanged at 3.% yoy, above expectation of 3.3% yoy. CPI trimmed was unchanged at 3.5% yoy, above expectation of 3.4% yoy. CPI common slowed from 4.2% yoy to 3.9% yoy, below expectation of 4.0% yoy.

                        Full Canada CPI release here.

                        BoE’s Breeden focuses on inflationary persistence for future policy

                          BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden acknowledged in a speech that the UK economy is making strides towards bringing inflation back to the BoE’s 2% target, but emphasized that “our job isn’t done.”

                          Breeden expressed a focused concern on the persistence of inflationary pressures, highlighting a key area of the BoE’s attention: “The question I am focused on is whether there is evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures which means we may need to tighten further.”

                          Emphasizing the need for a sustained restrictive monetary policy, Breeden stated, “Regardless, monetary policy still needs to be restrictive for an extended period of time to keep pushing down on inflation and to return it sustainably to target.”

                          Breeden also highlighted the importance of utilizing a diverse range of data sources to gauge the economy’s trajectory. She mentioned using “soft data, such as surveys, as well as real-world conversations with businesses and others,” to inform her assessment of economic trends.

                          Full speech of BoE Breeden here.

                          Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.4%, core at 3.6%

                            Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.4% yoy in November, down from October’s 2.9% yoy. CPI core (excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 3.6% yoy , down from prior month’s 4.2% yoy. The highest contribution came from services (+1.69 percentage points, pp), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+1.37 pp), non-energy industrial goods (+0.75 pp) and energy (-1.41 pp).

                            EU CPI was finalized at 3.1% yoy, down from prior month’s 3.6% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Belgium (-0.8%), Denmark (0.3%) and Italy (0.6%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Czechia (8.0%), Hungary (7.7%), Slovakia and Romania (both 6.9%). Compared with October, annual inflation fell in twenty-one Member States, remained stable in three and rose in three.

                            Full Eurozone CPI release here.

                            Yen weakens further after BoJ Ueda’s dovish press conference

                              Japanese Yen’s decline gained momentum following dovish comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda in the post-meeting press conference. Ueda reaffirmed the central bank’s readiness to take “additional easing steps if necessary,” highlighting the “extremely high” level of uncertainty surrounding the economy.

                              Addressing the possibility of a policy adjustment in January meeting, Ueda downplayed the likelihood of an abrupt rate hike, stating, “I don’t think the chance is high for us to say abruptly that we will hike rates at a subsequent meeting.” He also mentioned that “we won’t see much new data” to come before the meeting, except branch managers’ meeting which will provide insights into regional economies.

                              Ueda spoke about various policy scenarios under consideration, recognizing the high degree of uncertainty in current economic forecasts. He noted the difficulty in outlining a clear exit strategy from the ultra-loose monetary policy due to the unpredictability of achieving sustainable and stable inflation at the target level. Ueda assured that once the BoJ foresees conditions aligning with their targets, more information will be disclosed.

                              BoJ holds steady despite speculation for tweaks

                                BoJ decided to maintain its monetary policy unchanged, a move that has come as a disappointment to some observers who anticipated minor policy changes or at least some alterations in the statement.

                                Under the Yield Curve Control framework, short-term policy interest rate remains at -0.1%. BoJ has also maintains its target for the 10-year JGB yield at approximately 0%, allowing for a cap of 1% for yield fluctuations. This decision was reached unanimously.

                                In addition, BoJ reiterated its commitment to an easing bias, stating it “will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary.”

                                Regarding Japan’s economic outlook, BoJ expects a moderate ongoing recovery in the near term. However, it acknowledges downward pressures, primarily due to a slowdown in the recovery pace of overseas economies.

                                Looking ahead, the central bank projects that as a positive cycle from income to spending strengthens, Japan’s economy will continue to grow at a rate above its potential growth rate.

                                In terms of inflation, BoJ anticipates CPI core to remain above 2% through fiscal 2024. Underlying inflation is expected to “increase gradually toward achieving the price stability target.”

                                 

                                Full BoJ statement here.

                                RBA considered hike and hold, Dec minutes show

                                  Minutes of RBA’s December 5 meeting revealed that both a 25bps hike and maintaining the status quo were considered. Ultimately, they opted to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.35%. The rationale behind this decision was the perceived value in “waiting for further data to assess how the balance of risks was evolving and how best to balance these risks when setting policy.”

                                  The board members concurred that the need for additional monetary tightening to ensure inflation returns to the target within a reasonable timeframe would be contingent on how incoming data influences the economic outlook and the assessment of risks.

                                  The RBA emphasized its commitment to closely monitoring various economic indicators in its future policy decisions. This includes developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labor market.

                                  Full RBA minutes here.

                                  NZ ANZ business confidence improved to 33.2, with mixed inflation signals

                                    New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence climbed from 30.8 to 33.2 in December. Looking into the specifics, own activity outlook improved from 26.3 to 29.3, indicating positive sentiment about future business conditions. However, investment intentions dropped from 4.5 to 2.7, suggesting some hesitancy in capital expenditures. Employment intentions rose from 5.4 to 7.0, reflecting moderately stronger inclination towards hiring.

                                    In terms of pricing, there was a noticeable increase, with pricing intentions moving from 46.8 to 50.2. This rise implies that more businesses are planning to increase their prices, which could contribute to inflationary pressures. Similarly, cost expectations saw an upward movement from 73.9 to 76.2, indicating rising costs for businesses. On the other hand, inflation expectations showed a decline from 4.79% to 4.61%.

                                    ANZ commented on the mixed nature of the inflation indicators, as they do not present an encouraging outlook for inflation. With more data expected before RBNZ’s February decision, this survey’s results might not be among the most favorable. While recent GDP data showed RBNZ’s measures gaining more traction than previously understood, the extent of economic downturn required to bring inflation down to the 2% target remains an unresolved question.

                                    Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

                                    New Zealand’s trade deficit narrows to NZD -1.2B, led by decreased trade with china

                                      New Zealand’s goods trade deficit narrowed from NZD 1.7B to NZD 1.2B in November, aligning largely with market expectations. Exports fell by NZD 337m, representing -5.3% yoy decline, settling at NZD 6.0B. Meanwhile, imports saw a more substantial reduction of NZD 1.3B, -15% yoy decrease, totaling NZD 7.2B.

                                      A key factor in these changes is reduced trade volume with China, which led contraction in both imports and exports. Exports to China decreased by NZD 183m, -9.7% yoy fall. Imports from China also saw a substantial reduction of NZD 347m, marking -17% yoy decrease.

                                      Other key trading partners also showed varied trends. Exports to Australia and EU declined by NZD 35m (-4.5% yoy) and NZD 27m (-9.1% yoy), respectively. Conversely, exports to US increased by NZD 110m, a significant 18% yoy rise. Exports to Japan experienced a sharp decline of NZD 99m, -27% yoy drop.

                                      In the realm of imports, alongside China, EU, Australia, US, and South Korea all registered declines. Imports from the EU decreased by NZD 164m (-14% yoy), from Australia by NZD 219m (-23% yoy), from the US by NZD 68m (-11% yoy), and from South Korea by NZD 231m (-32% yoy).

                                      Full NZ goods trade balance release here.

                                      BoC’s Macklem see rate cuts in 2024, but with focus on core inflation trend

                                        BoC Governor Tiff Macklem, in an interview with Bloomberg overnight, indicated that interest rate cuts are being considered “sometime in 2024,” but he emphasized that this decision hinges critically on the sustained easing of core inflation.

                                        Macklem underlined the importance of core inflation as a key focus for BoC. He stated, “We’re very focused on core inflation.” Specifically, he pointed out the necessity for “a number of months with sustained downward momentum in core inflation” before the central bank can confidently move forward with interest rate cuts.

                                        Nevertheles, Macklem expressed a growing confidence in the effectiveness of the current monetary policy, acknowledging that “increasingly, the conditions are in place to get us back to two-per-cent inflation.”

                                        However, he was clear in conveying that this goal has not been fully achieved yet, stating, “but that is not yet assured, we’re not there yet.”

                                        Fed’s Daly views 2024 as right for rate cuts, timetable uncertain

                                          San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly, in a Wall Street Journal interview yesterday, suggested that it might be appropriate for policymakers to start considering rate cuts in 2024, especially considering the easing of inflation this year. However, she also cautioned that it is premature to speculate on the exact timing of these rate reductions.

                                          Daly emphasized the delicate balancing act Fed faces: the need to achieve price stability while minimizing job losses. Fed’s goal is to bring inflation down to its 2% target, but Daly highlighted the importance of doing so gently, “with as few disruptions to the labor market as possible.”

                                          Another key point from Daly’s interview concerns the real borrowing costs for households and businesses. With inflation showing a downward trend, maintaining the current rate could inadvertently increase these costs. Daly conveyed her wariness that “we could overtighten quite easily, and so that’s what I’m mindful of”.

                                          Aligning with the broader perspective of Fed policymakers, Daly’s views resonate with the median projections released last week. These projections suggest a majority of the 19 Fed policymakers anticipate a 75 basis-point reduction from the current target range of 5.25%-5.50% for the policy rate, aiming to bring inflation down to about 2.4% by the year’s end.