UK retail sales picture bleak on Brexit uncertainty

    UK BRC like-for-like sales dropped -1.6% yoy in June, below expectation of -1.5% yoy. Total sales dropped -1.3% yoy. The data were worst in record for June since 1995. Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of BRC, noted, “overall, the picture is bleak: rising real wages have failed to translate into higher spending as ongoing Brexit uncertainty led consumers to put off non-essential purchases.”

    She added: “Businesses and the public desperately need clarity on Britain’s future relationship with the EU. The continued risk of a No Deal Brexit is harming consumer confidence and forcing retailers to spend hundreds of millions of pounds putting in place mitigations – this represents time and resources that would be better spent improving customer experience and prices. It is vital that the next Prime Minister can find a solution that avoids a No Deal Brexit on 31st October, just before the busy Black Friday and Christmas periods.”

    Full release here.

    RBNZ Orr actively preparing a package of additional monetary policy tools

      RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said in a speech that the early policy actions on the pandemic, including significant reduction in the Official Cash Rate, and introduction of the Large Scale Asset Purchases, “have been effective in lowering interest rates across the board, and ensuring there is plentiful liquidity in the financial system.”

      He added that RBNZ is “actively preparing a package of additional monetary policy tools to use if needed”. The tools include “negative wholesale interest rates, further quantitative easing, direct lending to banks, and ongoing forward guidance about our intentions.” While some of the tools are “unfamiliar to many New Zealanders,” he noted, “they are used widely internationally”.

      Orr’s full speech here.

      SNB Jordan: Focus on price stability absolutely essential

        SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said,”inflation is far too high. It is negative not only for the functioning of the economy, it is very negative especially for lower income classes.”

        “The population doesn’t like inflation, so … the focus on price stability for central banks is absolutely essential.”

        Businesses “don’t hesitate any more to increase their prices,” the said. “That is different to two or three years ago, and that is also a signal it is not that easy to bring inflation back to 2%.”

        “Once inflation is high, the pressure coming from wages is here and it is proof it will not be that easy everywhere to bring inflation down quickly,” he said.

        New Zealand recorded highest monthly trade deficit on record

          New Zealand trade deficit widened sharply to NZD -1.484m in August versus expectation of NZD -930m. That’s also the largest monthly deficit on record.

          Exports rose 9.9% yoy to NZD 4.1B. However, imports jumped sharply by 14% yoy to NZD 5.5B, the third highest total on record. It’s also the fourth straight month of imports above NZD 5B.

          Exports to China rose 20% yoy to NZD 870M, to EU rose 12% to NZD 462M, to USA rose 14% yoy to NZD 371m and to Japan rose 28% yoy to NZD 302m. However, export to Australia was down -7.4% yoy to NZD 791m.

          Petroleum and products led the imports rise, up NZD 186m (50%) to NZD 563m.

          Full release here.

          Eurogroup urged Italy to comply to EU budget rules

            In a statement released today, the Eurogroup said Italy’s 2019 Draft Budget Plan (DBP) was breaking EU rules and urged Italy to rectify it.

            It said “The Eurogroup recalls that in its opinion issued on 23 October 2018 the Commission identified a particularly serious non-compliance with the recommendation addressed to Italy by the Council on 13 July 2018 and requested a revised DBP. Italy submitted a revised DBP on 13 November, on which the Commission issued another opinion on 21 November, confirming the existence of a particularly serious non-compliance with the Council recommendation.”

            And, “we support the Commission assessment and recommend Italy to take the necessary measures to be compliant with the SGP. We also support the ongoing dialogue between the Commission and the Italian authorities.”

            Also, the Eurogroup noted that five member states’ DBP are “deemed to be at risk of non-compliance with the SGP”, including  Belgium, France, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain.

            Eurogroup’s statement here.

            German factory orders -3.9% mom, Swiss unemployment rate at 2.9%

              German factory orders Feb: -3.9% mom vs exp -1.6% mom vs prior 3.0% mom

              Swiss unemployment rate Feb: 2.9% vs exp 2.9% vs prior 3.0%

              Little reaction to the data as markets await ECB later today. Recent rebound in EUR/CHF suggests pull back from 1.1832 has completed at 1.1445 already. But the corrective pattern from 1.1832 could still extend with another falling leg before completion. Mario Draghi’s message will likely decide whether EUR/CHF will target 1.1832 first, or 1.1445 again first.

              UK PMI services finalized at 62.4, composite at 62.2

                UK PMI Services was finalized at 62.4 in June, down slightly from May’s 62.9. That’s still the second-highest reading since October 2013. PMI Composite dropped to 62.2, down from 62.9. That’s also the second-highest reading since January 1998.

                Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “The service sector recovery remained in full swing during June as looser pandemic restrictions released pent up demand for business and consumer services. Sales growth eased slightly from May’s recent peak, but capacity constraints and staff shortages meant that many service providers struggled to keep up with new orders…

                “The latest survey data highlighted survey-record rates of input cost and prices charged inflation across the service sector, reflecting higher commodity prices, transport shortages and staff wages. Imbalanced supply and demand was the main driver, while the roll-back of pandemic discounting by some service providers amplified the latest round of price hikes.”

                Full release here.

                Fed Evans: Going to take us until the middle of next year to complete tapering

                  Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in a virtual conference, “we learned back in 2013 that tapering these asset purchases was preferable for financial market functioning; that if we did a sudden stop on our purchases that wasn’t well received. It’s going to take us until the middle of next year to complete that”.

                  “It’s going to take us until the middle of next year to complete that; we are going to be mindful of inflation; we’re going to be looking to see how much additional accommodation is boosting inflation; if indeed that is the case, we’ll be thinking about when the right time to start raising rates will be,” he added.

                  Fed George: Risks to growth “predominately to the upside”

                    Kanasa City Fed President Esther George (a known hawk) said

                    • “Risks to the outlook appear to be predominately to the upside,”
                    • Fed should “carefully calibrate its policy to lean against a potential buildup of inflationary pressure or financial market imbalances.”

                    “Predominately to the upside” is in-line with her hawkishness. Other members generally see risks to be “roughly balanced”.

                    Japan CPI core rose to -0.6% yoy in Jan, CPI core-core turned positive to 0.1% yoy

                      Japan CPI core (ex-food) climbed back to -0.6% yoy in January, up from -1.0% yoy, above expectation of -0.7% yoy. All item CPI also rose to -0.6% yoy, up from -1.2% yoy. CPI core-core (ex-food and energy) turned positive to 0.1% yoy, up from -0.4% yoy.

                      BoJ is set to review its monetary policy tools in March, to make the massive stimulus program “more sustainable and effective”. It’s reported that the central bank could replace some numerical guidelines for ETF purchases. A source to Reuters noted that “to make the BOJ’s policy sustainable, it needs to avoid buying too much ETFs when doing so is unnecessary”.

                      BoE Broadbent: A Brexit deal would lead to quite a strong bounce-back in investment

                        BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent warned that further Brexit delays beyond October 31. risks greater damage to the economy. He said “it’s pretty clear that investment has been feeling the consequences of the uncertainty about Brexit and particularly the possibility of a bad outcome”.

                        He warned, “if you continually expect news to arrive imminently – a resolution – then that can have quite a depressing effect on investment”. And, persistent depression on investment is clearly bad for the economy as “we rely on investment for making us collectively more productive and better off.

                        Instead, a Brexit deal would lead to “quite a strong bounce-back in investment.” “There would be quite a strong bounce-back in investment,” he said. “These are not cancelled projects – it’s delay. If, as a business person, you’re assured that the worst thing is suddenly off the table, that has quite a powerful effect on your incentive to invest.”

                        BoJ Amamiya: Don’t change public perceptions with a shock blow

                          BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said Japan is having “steady progress” towards 2% inflation even though that could take time. And he emphasized that “instead of trying to change public perceptions with a shock blow, we should guide inflation toward our target through steady improvements in the output gap and inflation expectations.”

                          He added that BoJ will “scrutinise factors that are preventing inflation from accelerating” and “look very carefully into what is happening.” He doesn’t rule out fine-tuning of the ultra-loose monetary policy and “an adjustment could happen if that’s necessary to stably achieve our price target.

                          Australia NAB Business confidence unwound post election spike

                            Australia NAB Business Conditions improved from 1 to 3 in June, but remain below average. Business Confidence dropped from 7 to 2, largely unwound the bounce from 0 to 7 in May. NAB said “the recent run of results also suggest that the economy is unlikely to record a significant pickup in growth in Q2.” Further, “forward orders also remain below average (and are negative), suggesting a near-term turn around in business activity is unlikely.”

                            According to Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist, “Business confidence appears to have unwound its spike in May, which we think was driven by a short-term election bounce and increased optimism around a renewed interest rate easing cycle by the RBA. While business conditions increased slightly in the month, they remain well below average after trending lower for over a year now. The decrease in conditions has been relatively broad-based across states and industries – suggesting that there has been sector wide loss of momentum over the past year”.

                            Full release here.

                            Eurozone industrial production rose 1.5% mom in Jul, EU up 1.4% mom

                              Eurozone industrial production rose 1.5% mom in July, above expectation of 0.5% mom. For the month, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.5%, capital goods by 2.7%, durable consumer goods by 0.6% and intermediate goods by 0.4%, while production of energy fell by 0.6%.

                              EU industrial production rose 1.4% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases were registered in Ireland (+7.8%), Belgium (+5.0%) and Portugal (+3.5%). The largest decreases were observed in Lithuania (-2.0%), Slovenia (-1.8%) and Croatia (-1.6%).

                              Full release here.

                              Australia Westpac leading index back at pre-pandemic average

                                Australia Westpac Leading Index rose to -0.48% in September, up from -2.28%. While still negative, the index is now well above the low seen in H1, when it tumbled to well below -5% due to coronavirus shock. The index is now in line with the average recorded over the 12 months prior to the pandemic.

                                On RBA rate decision on November 3, Westpac continues to expect cut in both cash rate and three year yield target from 0.25% to 0.10%. RBA is expected to introduce an open ended commitment to buy government and semi-government bonds out along the maturity spectrum to 10 years.

                                Full release here.

                                IMF Lagarde: Trade war find losers on both sides

                                  IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde on trade wars:

                                  • “The macroeconomic impact would be serious, not only if the United States took action, but especially if other countries were to retaliate, notably those who would be most affected, such as Canada, Europe, and Germany in particular.”
                                  • “In a so-called trade war, driven by reciprocal increases of import tariffs, nobody wins, one generally finds losers on both sides.”
                                  • “There are some countries in the world that do not necessarily respect the World Trade Organization’s agreements, and which impose technology transfers. China is a case in point, but it is not the only country with such practices.”

                                  AUD/CAD turns into consolidation ahead of 0.9870 projection target

                                    AUD/CAD trades mildly softer today, partly because the Canadian Dollar is lifted by oil prices. More importantly, buying lost momentum, as seen in 4 hour MACD, just ahead of 38.2% projection of 0.8066 to 0.9696 from 0.9247 at 0.9870. A short term top is possibly in place at 0.9857.

                                    Some consolidations would likely follow first. Considering that USD/CAD is on the verge of breaking through 1.2688 low, there is prospect of a deeper pull back in AUD/CAD too. Though, downside should be contained by 0.9617 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Break of 0.9870 will target 61.8% projection at 1.0254.

                                    AU PM Turnbull: No ground to complain to WTO, as AU is exempted from steel tariffs

                                      Following Canada and Mexico, Australia was exempted from the steel tariff of the US. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said there were no strings attached to the exemption. He said that “I know exactly what was discussed and there is no, sort of, request for any change or addition to our security arrangements.” He also said that Australia is not going to initiate any complain to the WTO regarding the tariffs. He added that “obviously as a country that will be exempt from those tariffs, we don’t have a basis to bring a complaint,” he said.

                                      Trump tweeted over the weekend that Turnbull is “committed to having a very fair and reciprocal military and trade relationship. Working very quickly on a security agreement so we don’t have to impose steel or aluminum tariffs on our ally, the great nation of Australia!

                                      S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at records, no follow through in Asia

                                        US stocks enjoyed strong rally overnight as boosted by solid corporate earnings from Coca-Cola to Twitter. S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at records of 2933.68 (up 0.88%) and 8120.82 (up 1.32%) respectively. Though, they’re both held below intraday highs. DOW also gained 0.55% to 26656.39.

                                        Technically, the strong momentum suggests that both S&P 500 and NASDAQ will easily take out intraday records at 2490.91 and 8133.30. That could likely pull DOW upward to equivalent level at 26951.81. Yet, we’re still not too convinced that the indices are in long term up trend resumption yet.

                                        Two developments give us some doubts over the underlying momentum of the global markets. Firstly, Asian markets are not following and with major indices, except Singapore Strait Times, turned red after initial gains today. Secondly, Yen is the strongest one for the week so far while USD/JPY is stuck in tight range only, which isn’t the usually development seen in strong risk on market. Thus, there will be a lot of caution in the next move up.

                                        Anyway, for now, near term outlook in SPX will release bullish as long as 2891.90 support holds. Firm break of 2490.91 should at least bring a test on 3000 psychological level.

                                        Similarly, near term outlook in NASDAQ will remain bullish as long as 7950.97 support holds. Firm break of 8133.30 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

                                        Eurozone exports rose 31.9% yoy in May, imports rose 35.2% yoy

                                          In May, Eurozone exports rose 31.9% yoy to EUR 188.2B. Imports rose 35.2% yoy to EUR 180.7B. As a result Eurozone recorded a EUR 7.5B surplus in trade in goods. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 45.4% yoy to EUR 181.5B.

                                          In seasonally adjusted terms Eurozone exports dropped -1.5% mom to EUR 195.1B. imports rose 07% mom to EUR 185.8B. Trade surplus narrowed to EUR 9.4B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose to EUR 183.7B.

                                          Full release here.