US President Trump complains ECB President Draghi’s comments on monetary stimulus

    Trump complains ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments earlier today, while triggers broad based selloff in Euro. He tweeted “Mario Draghi just announced more stimulus could come, which immediately dropped the Euro against the Dollar, making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA. They have been getting away with this for years, along with China and others.”

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    Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.2%, core CPI at 0.8% in May

      Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.2% yoy in May, down from April’s 1.7% yoy. CPI core was finalized at 0.8% yoy, unchanged from April’s figure. EU28 CPI was finalized at 1.6% yoy in May, down from April’s 1.9% yoy.

      The lowest annual rates were registered in Cyprus (0.2%), Portugal (0.3%) and Greece (0.6%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (4.4%), Hungary (4.0%) and Latvia (3.5%). Compared with April 2019, annual inflation fell in sixteen Member States, remained stable in five and rose in six.

      In May 2019, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (0.47%), followed by energy (0.38%), food, alcohol & tobacco (0.29%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.08%).

      Full release here.

      German ZEW dropped -21.1, substantially worsened German data and increased global uncertainty

        German ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped sharply to -21.1 in June, down from -2.1 and missed expectation of -5.8. That’s also the lowest reading since November. Current Situation gauge dropped to 7.8, down from 8.2, beat expectation of 6.1. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped to -20.2, down from -1.6 and missed expectation of -3.6. Eurozone Current Situation gauge rose 3.3 pts to -3.7.

        ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said: “The sharp drop in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment coincides with an increased uncertainty regarding the future development of the global economy and substantially worsened figures for the German economy at the beginning of the second quarter. The intensification of the conflict between the USA and China, the increased risk of a military conflict in the Middle East and the higher probability of a no-deal Brexit are all casting a shade on the global economic outlook. On top of this, German industry has been reporting worse than expected figures for production, exports and retail sales for April.”

        Full release here.

        Ifo affirms 2019 Germany growth forecasts, downgrades 2020

          Ifo institute maintains 2019 German growth forecast at 0.6%, but revised down 2020 growth forecasts by -0.1% to 1.7%. Private consumer pending is expected to drive the economy, rise 1.4% in 2019 and 1.3% in 2020. Investments are expected to growth 3.0% and 2.8% respectively,d riven by construction. Export is expected to grow just 1.3% in 2019 and normalizes to 3.8% in 2020.

          Timo Wollmershaeuser, Head of ifo Economic Forecasts, said “there are increasing signs that industrial weakness is gradually spreading to the domestic economy via the labor market and deep value chains.” And, “that means the German economy will enter the coming year without any momentum.” Wollmershaeuser also warned, “economic policies that attempt to change the globalized economic order through isolation, sanctions, and threats have increased uncertainty worldwide, cooled industrial activity, and caused world trade to collapse.”

          Full report here. .

           

          ECB Draghi: Additional stimulus required in absence of improvement in downside risks

            ECB President Mario Draghi emphasized in a speech that “monetary policy remains committed to its objective and does not resign itself to too-low inflation… forever or even for now.” Also, he reiterated monetary policy is “patient, persistent and prudent”.

            He added: “Patient, because faced with repeated negative shocks we have had to extend the policy horizon. Persistent, because monetary policy will remain sufficiently accommodative to ensure the sustained convergence of inflation to our aim. And prudent, because we will pay close attention to underlying inflation dynamics and to risks and will adjust policy appropriately.”

            Draghi also reiterated risks remains “tilted to the downside” and indicators point to “lingering softness”. And he warned, “in the absence of improvement, such that the sustained return of inflation to our aim is threatened, additional stimulus will be required.” The options on further measures were “raised and discussed” at ECB’s last meting.

            The measures including enhancing the forward guidance on bias and conditionality. Also, “Further cuts in policy interest rates and mitigating measures to contain any side effects remain part of our tools”. And, “the APP (asset purchase program) still has considerable headroom.”

            Full speech here.

            Euro drops notably after the comments.

            Australia house prices dropped -3% in Q1, decline in all capital cities

              Australia house price index dropped -3.0% qoq in Q1, much worse than expectation of -2.6%. There’s also deterioration from Q4’s -2.4% qoq. House prices also declined in all capital cities: Sydney (-3.9%), Melbourne (-3.8%), Adelaide (-0.2%) and Hobart (-0.4%), Brisbane (-1.5%), Perth (-1.1%), Canberra (-0.9%) and Darwin (-1.8%).

              ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman said: “These results are in line with soft housing market indicators, with sales transactions and auction clearance rates lower than one year ago, and days on market trending higher. A continuation of tight credit supply and reduced demand from investors and owner occupiers has contributed to weakness in property prices in all capital cities this quarter.”

              Full release here.

              RBA Minutes: Further rate cut is more likely than not

                Australian Dollar falls broadly today on dovish RBA minutes as well as miss in house price data. RBA cut cash rate by -25bps to 1.25% at the June 4 meeting. The minutes noted that “members agreed that it was more likely than not that a further easing in monetary policy would be appropriate in the period ahead.”

                Policymakers acknowledged that inflation has been below 2-3% target range for three years and even deteriorated to 1.5% in Q1. Unemployment rate had not declined any further in the last six months despite ongoing job growth. It has eve edged up in the most recent two months. Thus, “a lower level of interest rates would support growth in the economy, thereby reducing unemployment and contributing to inflation rising to a level consistent with the target.”

                Also, lower interests could support the economy through lower exchange rate, reduced borrowing rates for businesses, and lower interest payments for households. And give the extent of spare capacity in the economy and the subdued inflationary pressures, there was “a low likelihood of a decline in interest rates resulting in an unexpectedly strong pick-up in inflation.”

                Instead, lowest interest rates would ” stimulate activity and thereby improve the resilience of the Australian economy to any future adverse shocks.”

                Full minutes here.

                BoJ Kuroda will certainly debate risks from trade war and China at upcoming meeting

                  Ahead of BoJ’s June 19-20 monetary policy meeting, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned the parliament of risks from US-China trade war and China’s economy. And he pledged that the issues will “certainly” be debated.

                  Kuroda said, “as for recent overseas economic developments, there are strong downside risks regarding the Sino-U.S. trade friction and China’s economy.” And, “we’ll certainly debate such overseas developments” at the upcoming meeting.

                  He also reiterated that “BOJ will guide monetary policy appropriately taking into account the impact overseas economic changes could have on Japan’s economic outlook and the momentum for achieving our inflation target”.

                  Sterling falls broadly ahead of next UK Conservative leadership voting

                    Sterling drops broadly this week breaking out near term support against Dollar and Yen. The next round of UK Conservative leadership voting will be held today. For now, despite the lack of public appearances, face of the Brexit campaign Boris Johnson appears to be unstoppable. Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove are believed to have secured enough votes for the next round. Meanwhile, Sajid Javid, Rory Stewart and Dominic Raab are still battling for support. Those staying in the race after current around will compete in a BBC debate later in the evening. That would likely be Johnson’s first TV appearance since the race started. Pound is also weighed down by news that Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond is “prepared to resign” over Prime Minister Theresa May’s legacy spending plans.

                    Let’s have a quick review on Sterling pairs. GBP/USD broke 1.2559 support to resume the fall from 1.3381. It’s now on track to retest 1.2391 low.

                    GBP/JPY also resumed recent fall from 148.87 and is targeting a test on 131.51 low.

                    EUR/GBP is reaccelerating, as seen in daily MACD. It’s targeting 0.9101 key resistance.

                    GBP/CHF also resumed the fall from 1.3399 and is now targeting 1.2297 low.

                    EU: China tops the list of trade and investment barriers

                      In a report released today, European Commission said, in 2018, China had the highest stock of recorded barriers, with 37 obstacles hindering EU export and investment opportunities. Russia was a close second with 34 barriers in place. India (25), Indonesia (25) and US (23) followed. On new barriers, Algeria and India topped with five new measures. US and China followed with four new measures each.

                      Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström said: “In the complex context we have today with a growing number of trade tensions and protectionist measures, the EU must keep defending the interests of its companies in the global markets. Making sure that the existing rules are respected is of utmost importance. Thanks to our successful interventions, 123 barriers hindering EU exports opportunities have been removed since I took office in late 2014. Working on specific problems reported by our companies we manage to deliver economic benefits equivalent in value to those brought by the EU’s trade agreements. Those efforts certainly must continue.”

                      Full report here.

                      US Empire State Manufacturing dropped to -8.6, largest decline on record

                        US Empire State Manufacturing index dropped by a record -26 pts to -8.6 in June. That’s much worse than expectation of 11. It’s also the first negative reading in more than two years. Looking at some details, new orders receded, while shipments increased modestly. Unfilled orders fell, and delivery times and inventories moved slightly lower. Labor market indicators pointed to small declines in employment and hours worked.

                        Index for future business conditions dropped -5 pts to 25.7. capital expenditure index dropped -11 pts to 10.5, pointing to slower growth in capital spending. Firms expected solid increases in employment but no change in the average workweek in the months ahead.

                        Full release here.

                        Into US session: Euro higher in crosses in quiet markets

                          Entering into US session, the forex markets are a bit mixed for the moment as more important events, like FOMC meeting, lie in the week again. Euro is lifted mildly by record wage growth in Q1. Though, New Zealand Dollar is the strongest one for now. At the same time, Australian Dollar is the weakest for today so far, followed by Yen. Data from US and Canada are unlikely to trigger much reactions.

                          Nevertheless, Euro crosses are worth a watch in the rest of the day. In particular, EUR/AUD’s strong rally in early US session suggests that recent rise might be extending after very brief consolidation since Thursday. 1.6363 temporary top is the level to watch. Also, EUR/GBP could also extend recent rally through last week’s high at 0.8932.

                          In Europe, currently:

                          • FTSE is down -0.16%.
                          • DAX is down -0.03%.
                          • CAC is up 0.22%.
                          • German 10-year yield is up 0.0121 at -0.239.

                          Earlier in Asia:

                          • Nikkei rose 0.03%.
                          • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.40%.
                          • China Shanghai SSE rose 0.20%.
                          • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.45%.
                          • Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.029 to -0.127.

                          Eurozone labor costs rose 2.4%, wages grew record 2.5%

                            Eurozone hourly labor costs rose 2.4% yoy in Q1, accelerated from 2.3% yoy in Q4, but missed expectation of 2.6% yoy. On of the main components, wages & salaries per hour rose 2.5% yoy, accelerated from 2.3%. That’s also the highest rise since record started in 2010. Another one, no-wage component rose 2.2% yoy, slowed from 2.4% yoy.

                            Breaking down by economic activity, hourly labour costs rose by 2.5% in industry, by 2.3% in construction, by 2.4% in services and by 2.5% in the (mainly) non-business economy.

                            EU28 hourly costs rose 2.6% yoy, slowed down from 2.8% yoy. Among the member states, the highest annual increases in hourly labour costs for the whole economy were registered in Romania (16.3%) and Bulgaria (12.9%), while the only decrease was recorded in Greece (-0.2%).

                            Full release here.

                            Bundesbank: Dichotomy in German economy will continue, GDP may shrink slightly in Q2

                              Bundesbank said in the monthly report that “the German economy should shrink slightly in the spring”, referring to Q2. That’s because “special effects that contributed to a noticeable rise in gross domestic product in the first quarter are either expiring or being reversed.”

                              The report added that Germany is facing headwinds from trade tensions, Brexit and slowdown in the global economy. These factors are weighing down on the export-led manufacturing sector. Nevertheless, “the buoyant forces underpinning the strong domestic-oriented sectors of the economy remain fundamentally intact”.

                              Overall, “the dichotomy in the economy will continue.”

                              Full report here.

                              ECB Coeure: Tiering system may be needed if rate cuts is the way to go

                                In a Financial Times interview, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said the Eurozone economy is not performing too badly for now, as supported by services and construction. However, signals from the financial markets, in particular from bonds, were “quite alarming”.

                                He added ECB have different tools to use if outlook worsened. If cutting interest rates is the beat option, ECB would have to “consider the impact of negative rates on financial intermediation, especially for banks”. In that case, policymakers “would have to consider whether a tiering system is needed.” But he also emphasized that “today the prevailing view in the Governing Council is that it is not, but we also agree that it deserves further reflection.”

                                On reviewing ECB’s inflation target, Coeure said “we have more urgent issues to face right now, but I’m pretty sure that we’ll do it at some point nevertheless.”

                                BCC: Contraction in business investment to drag UK growth in 2020 and 2021

                                  The British Chambers of Commerce revised up 2019 UK growth forecast to 1.3% (from 1.2%), driven by the “exceptionally rapid stock-building” early in the year. However, 2020 growth forecast was downgraded notably to 1.0% (from 1.3%), 2021 downgraded to 1.2% (from 1.4%). In particular, business investment is forecast to contract -1.3% in 2019 before recovering slightly by 0.4% 2020.

                                  Adam Marshall, Director General of BCC noted: “Businesses are putting resources into contingency plans, such as stockpiling, rather than investing in ventures that would positively contribute to long-term economic growth. This is simply not sustainable”,

                                  Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at BCC said: “The deteriorating outlook for business investment is a key concern as it limits the UK’s productivity potential and long-term growth prospects…. A messy and disorderly exit from the EU remains the main downside risk to the UK’s economic outlook as the disruption caused would increase the likelihood of the UK’s weak growth trajectory translating into a more pronounced deterioration in economic conditions.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  ECB de Guindos: De-anchoring of inflation expectations needed before more monetary stimulus

                                    Over the weekend, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said current monetary policy is “fully compatible with both inflation and real activity.” And, “de-anchoring of inflation expectations” is needed before ECB ease monetary policy again.

                                    He told Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera that “what we need to see is a de-anchoring of inflation expectations” for more policy stimulus. However, “this has not yet happened, despite the fact that there has been a drop in market-based inflation expectations.” “If there is a further deterioration, then we will react,” de Guindos added. “But for now, our monetary policy stance is fully compatible with both inflation and real activity.”

                                    On the impact of global trade tensions, de Guindos said “you can certainly smooth the impact with monetary policy, but you will not be able to address and fix this kind of problems with monetary policy”.

                                    Separately, Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said it would be “reasonable” to have “some more flexibility” on inflation target. And, he was “in favor of keeping the 2 percent target but with a corridor of 0.5 or 1 percent, up or down. A precision landing is hardly possible.”

                                    US retail sales rose 0.5%, ex-auto sales rose 0.5%, EUR/USD dives

                                      US retail sales rose 0.5% mom in May, below expectation of 0.7% mom. But ex-auto sales rose 0.5% mom, above expectation of 0.4% mom. April’s headline sales was revised up from -0.2% mom to 0.3% mom. April’s ex-auto sales was also revised up from 0.1% mom to 0.5% mom.

                                      Full release here.

                                      EUR/USD breaks through 1.1251 minor support after the release. The development suggests that rebound from 1.1107 has completed at 1.1347. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for retesting 1.1107 low.

                                      ECB Draghi: Policy has neutral effect of bank profitability, lower-income households are main beneficiaries

                                        ECB President Mario Draghi sent separate letters to four Members of the European Parliaments today, explaining the impact of the central bank’s monetary policy. There Draghi noted the “overall effect” of ECB’s monetary policy on bank profitability has so far been “broadly neutral”. The negative impact on banks’ net interest margins has been offset by an improvement in the economic outlook that has led to an “increase in the total volume of loans” and, moreover,” improved credit quality”, which has reduced provisioning costs. Though, he also pledged to carefully monitor the overall effects of negative interest rates.

                                        Draghi also said lending to non-financial corporations (NFCs) “recovered significantly” since the ECB introduced its non-standard monetary policy measures. And overall, the non-standard measures “have contributed to a more uniform transmission of monetary policy to bank lending rates across euro area countries and firm sizes.”

                                        Moreover, taking into account both financial and macroeconomic effects, ECB research finds that “lower-income households have been among the main beneficiaries of the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures, through their positive impact on growth and employment creation.”

                                        Gold breaks key resistance as up trend resumes finally

                                          Gold finally resumes recent up trend by breaking through 1346.71 resistance decisively and reaches as high as 1358.16 so far. Further rise should now be seen to 61.8% projection of 1160.17 to 1346.71 from 1266.26 at 1381.54 next. And in any case, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1319.95 support holds, in case of retreat.

                                          More importantly, upside re-acceleration is seen in weekly MACD after drawing support from 55 week EMA. The development is rather medium term bullish. Rise from 1160.17 could indeed be resuming whole rise from 1046.37 (2015 low) as consolidation from 1375.17 completed with three waves to 1160.17. That is, we’d likely see decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1920.70 (2011 high) to 1046.37 (2015 low) at 1380.36 finally. In that case, further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1586.70 in medium to long term.