US exports rose 8.1% in Oct, import rose 0.9%, trade deficit narrowed

    US exports rose 8.1% to USD 223.6B in October. Imports rose 0.9% to USD 290.7B. Trade deficit narrowed to USD -67.1B, from USD -81.4B, but widened than expectation of USD -66.9B. The figure reflected a decrease in goods deficit to USD -83.9B and increased in services surplus to USD 16.8B. Year-to-date, trade deficit increased 29.7% from the same period in 2020.

    Full release here.

    Fed Bullard: A wave of substantial bankruptcies could feed into a financial crisis

      St. Louis Fed President James Bullard warned that the risk of a financial crisis remains. He said “without more granular risk management on the part of the health policy, we could get a wave of substantial bankruptcies and could feed into a financial crisis,”

      Hence, “it’s probably prudent to keep our lending facilities in place for now, even though its true that liquidity has improved dramatically in financial markets.” The idea to is to make sure that markets don’t freeze up entirely in the twists and turns of a crisis.

      BoE Haldane: It’s time to start start tightening the tap

        In an article to the Daily Mail, BoE chief economist Andy Haldane said, “with the economy bouncing back, and with inflation risks on the rise, now is the time to start tightening the tap to avoid the risk of a future inflationary flood.”. He voted to “begin throttling back the degree of support provided to the economy” at last week’s MPC meeting. And he emphasized that’s just “gently taking our foot off the accelerator”, rather than, “slamming on the brakes”.

        “By the end of this year, inflation is likely to be above its 2 per cent target, largely due to the temporary effects of higher energy prices,” he explained. “At that point, the UK economy is likely to be growing rapidly above its potential. This momentum in the economy, if sustained, will put persistent upward pressure on prices, risking a more protracted – and damaging – period of above-target inflation. This is not a risk that can be left to linger if the inflation genie is not, once again, to escape us.”

        Full article here.

        Fed Bostic not seeing urgency to hike again as by others including Powell

          Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signaled a more cautious stance on interest rate hikes, contrary to someof his peers’ sentiments. he said, “I don’t see as much urgency to move as stated by others, including my Chair,” expressing his willingness to assess further signs of economic slowdown before advocating for more aggressive action.

          Bostic highlighted the fact that Fed has “only been in restrictive territory for 8-10 months”. He is waiting for “more signs that a slowdown is happening in the next several months”.

          Nevertheless, Bostic left room for adaptability based on incoming data. He remarked, “If inflation moves away from target or seems to significantly stall out, then we’ll probably have to do more.” However, he also noted that, “We’re not seeing either of those right now.”

          UK RICS house price balance rose to -10, but anecdotal insight shows political and economic concerns

            UK RICS House Price Balance improved to -10 in May, up from -22. That is, 10% more respondents saw a fall rather than rise in May. This would indicate a deceleration in the pace of price declines in six months time.

            Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, said: “Some comfort can be drawn from the results of the latest RICS survey as it suggests that the housing market in aggregate may be steading. However much of the anecdotal insight provided by respondents is still quite cautious, reflecting concerns about both the underlying political and economic climate.”

            Full release here.

             

            Japan’s export to US up 11.7% yoy in Jun, to EU up 15%, to China down -11%

              Japan’s exports rose by 1.5% yoy to JPY 8744B in June. The significant rise in exports to US by 11.7% yoy and to EU by 15.0% yoy was offset by the -11.0% yoy decline in exports to China (marking the most significant drop since January).

              Rise in US-bound exports was primarily driven by shipments of cars and mining machinery. Meanwhile, dip in exports to China was attributed the decreased shipments of steel, chips, and nonferrous metal, which led to an overall double-digit decline.

              Japan’s imports contracted by -12.9% yoy to JPY 8701B. The decrease in value of imports is primarily linked to drop in crude, coal, and liquefied natural gas.

              As a result, Japan recorded a trade surplus of JPY 43B, the first such instance in nearly two years since July 2021.

              In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 3.3% mom to JPY 8269B. Imports rose 0.5% mom to JPY 8822B. Trade balance reported JPY -553B deficit, versus expectation of JPY -550B.

              Full Japan trade balance release here.

              Swiss KOF dropped to 94.4, economy developing rather sluggishly

                Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 94.4 in May, down from 96.2 and missed expectation of 96.2. The reading dived further below its long-term average. KOF noted “Swiss economy is developing rather sluggishly.” And, majority of sets of indicators are tending downwards.

                The indicators for banking and insurance, consumption and foreign demand have developed negatively. The prospects for accommodation and food service activities and the other service providers have become gloomier. In the manufacturing sector, the outlook hardly changed compared to the previous month. For the construction sector, the outlook has improved.

                Full release here.

                NZD/USD pressing channel support, could it bounce from here?

                  In recent weeks, the antipodean currencies have encountered turbulent waters, contending for the title of the month’s poorest performers. Reserve Banks of both Australia and New Zealand are widely perceived to have reached the peaks of their ongoing tightening cycles. In contrast, ECB and BoE (and less certaintly Fed) seem poised for further rate hikes. Also, the broader sentiment, underpinned by belief that global interest rates may remain elevated longer than previously anticipated, has notably dampened risk appetites.

                  However, recent economic concerns stemming from China have played a pivotal role in the accelerated depreciation of these currencies in the last fortnight. China’s less-than-stellar economic recovery post its stringent Covid lockdowns, coupled with looming deflation risks and challenges in its property and finance sectors, have further intensified the pressure on the antipodean currencies. Additionally, PBoC milder than anticipated rate cut today further dampened sentiments towards these currencies.

                  Technically speaking, however, there is prospect of a near term bounce in NZD/USD, given that it’s now pressing a medium term channel support on oversold condition. Break above 0.5995 resistance will trigger a rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6117). However, deeper decline and firm break of 100% projection of 0.6537 to 0.5984 from 0.6410 at 0.5857 could prompt downside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 0.5515, which is close to 0.5511 long term support (2022 low).

                  Enough is enough, US industry group coalition launches new campaign against Trump’s tariffs

                    Over 60 US industry groups formed a coalition “Americans for Free Trade” to launch a campaign against Trump’s abusive use of tariffs and trade policies. Business groups have already expressed they objections to the tariffs on USD 200B of Chinese goods in the public hearing that ended last week. But instead of listening to what the Americans said, Trump raised the stakes last Friday by warning that tariffs on another USD 267B in Chines imports are “ready to go on short notice”.

                    The coalition involves almost every sector of the US economy, with heavy weight names represented including Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp, Target Corp and Autozone Inc., Microsoft Corp, Google owner Alphabet Inc and Apple Inc., Amazon.com, Macy’s Inc and Walmart Inc., IBM Corp and Facebook Inc., Mattel Inc, Hasbro Inc and Barnes & Noble Inc., etc.

                    Matthew Shay, president of the National Retail Federation, who is helping lead the coalition group warned that “there has been no sign of progress in the talks or de-escalation, simply more rhetoric about increasing tariffs, that’s not going to be good for the economy.” Nicole Vasilaros, the top lobbyist for the National Marine Manufacturers Association, also said the layering effect (of tariffs) has finally gotten everyone to say: ‘Enough is enough.'”

                    The campaign includes reaching out to lawmakers, buying ads and hosting town hall style meeting in swing states. Also, the coalition is targeting lawmakers in five states as the first step, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana and Tennessee. And, it’s planned to expand to a dozen states by the end of the year.

                    In a letter to members of Congress, the coalition said “we also strongly encourage Congress to exercise its oversight role on trade policy matters to prevent further harm to U.S. workers, consumers and families that will result from new tariffs — both those already being implemented and future tariffs that have been proposed.”

                    France consumer spending dropped -2.2% mom in Jul, GDP rose 1.1% qoq in Q2

                      France consumer spending dropped -2.2% mom in July, below expectation of 0.7% mom rise. This decrease came from the fallback in purchases of manufactured goods (–2.7%) and the sharp drop in food consumption (–2.9%). Energy expenditure, meanwhile, increased moderately (+1.0%).

                      GDP grew 1.1% qoq in Q2 in volume term better than expectation of 0.9% qoq. GDP closed one quarter of the gap to is pre-crisis level at the end of 2020. It stood -3.2% below its level in Q4 2019.

                      Gold breaks 1700 again as corrective fall resumes

                        Gold dropped to as low as 1689.36 yesterday and the break of 1693.64 support confirmed resumption of corrective fall from 1765.25. Deeper decline is now expected to 100% projection of 1765.25 to 1693.54 from 1745.14 at 1673.53 next.

                        Also, we’re holding on to the view that such decline is correcting whole rise from 1451.16 to 1765.25. 55 day EMA (now at 1685.97) is now a focus. Sustained break there will affirm our view and target 38.2% retracement of 1451.16 to 1765.25 at 1645.26 next. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1746.14 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

                        EU Juncker will visit Trump on July 25 for trade and economic partnership

                          According to a European Commission Statement, its president Jean-Claude Juncker will visit Trump in Washinton on July 25. The topics of discussion include foreign and security policy, counterterrorism, energy security, and economic growth, as well as trade and economic partnership.

                          Here is the full statement.

                          Statement on the visit of President Juncker to Washington

                          Brussels, 17 July 2018

                          President Jean-Claude Juncker will travel to Washington on 25 July 2018 where he will be received by President Donald J. Trump at the White House.

                          The two leaders will discuss the deep cooperation between the European Union and the United States government and institutions across a wide range of priorities, including foreign and security policy, counterterrorism, energy security, and economic growth.

                          President Juncker and President Trump will focus on improving transatlantic trade and forging a stronger economic partnership.

                          Eurozone PMI composite at over four-year low, moved down another gear

                            Eurozone PMI services was finalized at 51.2 in December, down from November’s 53.4. PMI composite dropped to 51.1, down from prior month’s 52.7. It’s also the lowest level in over four years. Among the countries, France PMI composite worsened further to 48.7, a 49-month low. Germany PMI composite dropped to 51.6, 66-month low. Italy, on the other hand, recovered to 50, a 3-month high.

                            Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                            “The eurozone economy moved down another gear at the end of 2018, with growth down considerably from the elevated rates at the start of the year. December saw business activity grow at the weakest rate since late-2014 as inflows of new work barely rose. Levels of unfinished business are now falling for the first time in nearly four years as previously-received orders are not being fully replaced with new work.

                            “The data are consistent with eurozone GDP rising by just under 0.3% in the fourth quarter, but with quarterly growth momentum slowing to 0.15% in December.

                            “While a drop in business activity in France could be partly blamed on the ‘yellow vest’ protests, the rest of the region lacks any such mitigating factors, albeit with the recent weakness of the autos sector hopefully a temporary set-back.

                            “Importantly, with expectations of output dropping to the lowest for over four years, companies are not anticipating any imminent revival in demand. Worries reflect multiple headwinds from trade wars, Brexit, heightened political uncertainty, financial market volatility and slower global economic growth.

                            “Employment growth has already taken a knock as companies take a more cautious approach to hiring in the face of weaker order books. Jobs growth has hit a two-year low.

                            “Better news came in the form of an easing in price pressures to the lowest for over a year, which should provide some breathing space for the European Central Bank to review its policy guidance.”

                            Full release here.

                            ECB Schnabel: It’s appropriate to preserve financing conditions rather than ease much further

                              Regarding the upcoming policy recalibration, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said it’s “appropriate to focus on preserving” the financing conditions, “rather than easing much further”. She emphasized, “if it’s necessary to do something that doesn’t meet market expectations, we have to do that nevertheless.”

                              “I indeed hope this will be the last big push (on monetary stimulus”, but we can never know what’s going to happen,” she said. “There is a positive scenario where we get a swift recovery and the scarring is relatively limited. But there is also the risk of the crisis being more protracted.”

                              She’s open to extending the PEPP window by 12 months to June 2021. On the topic of further rate cut, “there is no technical reason why this could not be lowered,” she said. “The question is whether this is considered appropriate.”

                              Amamiya: BoJ mindful of risks including financial imbalances

                                BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said the central bank is “ready to respond” financial crisis threatens the stability of the banking system.

                                He pointed to experience in the late 1980s, and noted “one of the factors that led to Japan’s asset-inflated bubble was the fact we kept monetary policy easy even as the economy continued to expand”. Hence, “the BOJ must be mindful of the potential risks to the economy and prices, including financial imbalances,”

                                Regarding monetary policy, Amamiya said “we’re ready to respond if financial problems have a big impact on the economy.”

                                Eurozone GDP grew 2.0% qoq in Q2, EU up 1.9% qoq

                                  Eurozone GDP grew 2.0% qoq in Q2, well above expectation of 1.5% qoq. EU GDP grew 1.9% qoq. Among the Member States for which data are available for the second quarter 2021, Portugal (+4.9%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Austria (+4.3%) and Latvia (+3.7%), while Lithuania (+0.4%) and Czechia (+0.6%) recorded the lowest increase. The year on year growth rates were positive for all countries.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Japan’s export rises 7.3% yoy in Mar, fourth month of growth

                                    Japan’s exports marked the fourth consecutive month of growth with a 7.3% yoy increase to JPY 9470B in March, slightly surpassing expected 7.0%. This growth was largely fueled by robust performances in automotive and semiconductor & electronic parts, which reported gains of 7.1% yoy and 11.3% yoy respectively.

                                    Regionally, exports to China accelerated to 12.6% yoy, from just 2.5% yoy in the previous month. However, exports to the US and Europe saw a slowdown, growing at 8.5% and 3.0% respectively.

                                    Import contracted -4.9% yoy to JPY 9103B, which was slightly better anticipated -5.1% yoy. Overall trade balance for March showed a surplus of JPY 366.5B.

                                    In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 2.6% mom to JPY 8768B. Imports rose 3.9% mom to JPY 9470B. Trade balance came in at JPY -701B.

                                    France PMI composite dropped to 52.7, a 9-month low

                                      France PMI Manufacturing ticked down from 55.6 to 55.5 in January, matched expectations. PMI Services dropped notably from 57.0 to 53.1, below expectation of 55.3, a 9-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 55.8 to 52.7, a 9-month low too.

                                      Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit said: “Given the surging number of daily COVID-19 cases we’ve seen in France, it’s no surprise to see softer PMI numbers in January…. Supply chain issues continue to impact the economy, particularly manufacturers, but we do appear to have seen the worst as delivery times lengthened to a far weaker extent than seen during much of 2021. That being said, the inflationary side effects remain in play and are being exacerbated by rising staff costs and energy prices.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      GBP/CHF extending near term fall as BoE awaited

                                        Today’s BoE meeting is, as new BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill described, “live” and “finely balanced”. There is a thin majority of economists expecting no change. But market pricing suggests that a hike is not really a surprise. But in either case, the new economic projections, as well as voting would more likely be the things that move markets.

                                        Here are some previews:

                                        Sterling is generally soft ahead of BoE’ rate decision. GBP/CHF broke through 1.2467 support this week and resumed the whole decline from 1.3070. For now the structure of the fall suggests that it’s corrective in nature. Hence, even in case of deeper decline, we’d expect strong support from 1.2259 to contain downside and bring rebound.

                                        Nevertheless, while break of 1.2541 minor resistance will bring recovery, break of 1.2759 resistance is needed to signal a near term bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at best.

                                        Fed keeps rate at 0-0.25%, maintains forward guidance, full statement

                                          Fed keeps federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% as widely expected. The forward guidance is unchanged too. “The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.”

                                          Full statement below.

                                          Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement

                                          The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

                                          The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health are inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. The disruptions to economic activity here and abroad have significantly affected financial conditions and have impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

                                          The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

                                          The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

                                          To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor market conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

                                          Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.