UK Q1 GDP finalized at 0.5%, services the largest contributor

    UK Q1 GDP was finalized at 0.5% qoq, 1.8% yoy, unrevised. Services output rose 0.4%, production rose 1.1% while construction rose 1.4%.

    Services sector provided the largest contribution to growth in the output approach to measuring GDP, while production also contributed positively, due largely to growth of 1.9% in manufacturing output.

    Household expenditure, government consumption and investment contributed positively to GDP growth in Quarter 1 2019, while net trade contributed negatively.

     

    Full release here.

    Swiss KOF dropped to 93.6, downward tendency flattening out

      Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 93.6 in June, down from 93.8 and missed expectation of 94.9. KOF said “the downward tendency that has been present since the beginning of the year is now flattening out.” But economic outlook “remains dampened” in the middle of 2019.

      The almost unchanged reading is primarily due to balancing tendencies in foreign demand, the goods producing sector (manufacturing and construction) and private consumption. While indicators show a positive tendency with regard to foreign demand, the joint indicators of the goods producing sector and private consumption point in the opposite direction with almost equal magnitude. In addition, there is a slight slowdown in the banking and insurance sector.

      Full release here.

      BoJ: All policy measures should be considered if baseline scenario changes

        In the summary of opinions at June 19-20 BoJ meeting, it’s noted that Japan’s economy is “likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend”. And “year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) is likely to increase gradually toward 2 percent”. Although “downside risks warrant attention”, it’s “appropriate” to continue with “current monetary policy stance”.

        However, there was “an increase in uncertainties regarding overseas economies. US-China trade conflicts and threat of no-deal Break has “started to affect Japan’s economy and people’s sentiment”. The schedule consumption tax hike could “exert downward pressure on economic activity and prices.”

        It’s argued that it’s important for BoJ to take “some kind of policy responses if some changes emerge in the baseline scenario of the outlook for prices”. And, “all policy measures — including adjustments in short- and long-term interest rates, an acceleration in the pace of expansion in the monetary base, and an increase in the amount of assets to be purchased — should be deliberated when considering additional easing.”

        Additionally, it’s also argued that considering growing expectation for easing by Fed and ECB, BoJ “also needs to strengthen monetary easing”. And, “it is necessary to further consider in depth the feasibility of a wide range of additional easing measures, as well as their effects and side effects.”

        Full summary of opinions here.

        Trump and Xi seek alliances in G20 sidelines

          At sideline of G20 today, in Japan, Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a BRICS meeting that protectionist measures taken by some developed countries are “destroying global trade order”. He added “this also impacts common interests of our countries, overshadows the peace and stability world-wide.” Xi called for BRICS to This also impacts common interests of our countries, overshadows the peace and stability world-wide,”

          Trump met Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Trump said he expects to announce “very big” trade deals with both Japan and India. Modi noted that four issues were discussed including Iran, 5G communications networks, bilateral relations and defense relations.

          At a news conference, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned the “difficult” US-China trade relations are “contributing to the slowdown of the global economy”. He’d draw both US and Chinese attention to the “harmful impact this controversial matter is creating.”

          Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet at 0230 GMT on Saturday. For now, it’s believed that some form of agreement is already in place to halt recent escalation in US-China trade war. But nothing is done until it’s done. A Trump-Kim style negotiation breakdown cannot be totally ruled out or now.

          G20: Abe and Xi agreed to promote free and fair trade

            Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping held bilateral meeting today, ahead of G20 leaders summit that starts tomorrow. Both sides agreed to work together to promote “free and fair trade”. A wide range of topics were also discussed.

            Xi said the G20 summit will be held “against the backdrop of an increasingly complicated world economic situation.” He added I strongly hope the summit will form shared views and send out a clear message to protect multilateralism and free trade.” Abe also said he welcomes the”new developments” in relationship with China that is based on the principles of “promoting free and fair trade.”

            Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasutoshi Nishimura noted that Abe urged Xi to maintain the free and open society, one-country, two systems with Hong Kong. This is a response to highly controversial extradition bill that prompted a March of 2 millions Hongkongers against the bill. Also, a world wide newspaper ad campaign is launched by Hong Kong activities, urging G20 leaders to stand by them to defend Hong Kong’s freedoms and autonomy.

            According to Nishimura, Abe also asked Xi to “exercise self-restraint over its activities” around the Japan-held Senkaku islets in the East China Sea and emphasized the importance of demilitarization of disputed islands in South China Sea.

            US initial jobless claims rose 10k to 227k, Q1 GDP finalized at 3.1% annualized

              US initial jobless claims rose 10k to 227k in the week ending June 22, above expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.25k to 221.25k. Continuing claims rose 22k to 1.688m in the week ending June 15. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 6.5k to 1.687m.

              Q1 GDP growth was finalized at 3.1% annualized, unrevised. .Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment were offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and inventory investment and an upward revision to imports.

              China insists on core concerns in US trade talks

                Ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in Japan on Saturday, Chinese reiterated their hard-line stance. Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng warned that “China’s core concerns must be addressed properly” in trade negotiations. He added, “we hope the U.S. side could drop its wrong practices, and we can solve the problems through equal dialogue and cooperation.” Gao also urged US to ” cancel immediately sanctions on Chinese companies including Huawei to push for the healthy and stable development in Sino-U.S. ties”.

                Separately, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said “the Chinese people are not afraid of pressure and never buy this kind of strategy,” referring to Trump’s tariff threats. And, he warned “starting a trade war and adding tariffs harms itself and others.”

                On the other hand, WSJ reported that Xi will insist on lifting Huawei ban as part of a set of terms before China would come back to the table. Xi could also request US to lift all punitive tariffs and drop efforts to get China to buy even more US exports than Xi said it would back in December.

                Eurozone economic sentiment dropped to 103.3, largest decline in industrial confidence in eight years

                  Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped -1.9 to 103.3 in June, below expectation of 104.7. The deterioration was driven by lower confidence in industrial (-2.7 to -5.6) and services (-1.1 to 11.0). The fall in industrial confidence was largest in eight years. Also, it’s below long-term average for the first time since 2013. On the other hand, Confidence improved in retail trade (+1 to 0.1) and construction (+3.6 to 7.7).

                  Also, the ESI decreased in all of the largest euro-area economies, most so in Germany (-2.9), followed by Italy, the Netherlands (both -1.5), France (-1.0) and Spain (-0.6).

                  Business Climate Indicator dropped -0.13 to 0.17, below expectation of 0.28. Managers’ production expectations, as well as their views on overall and export order books and the level of stocks deteriorated. Only the assessments of past production improved.

                  New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -38.1

                    New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped to -38.1 in June, down from -32.0. Agriculture scored worse at -54.5, followed by construction at -42.3 and manufacturing at -41.4. Activity Outlook also dropped from 8.5 to 8.0.

                    ANZ noted: “The outlook for the economy is murky. As things stand, there is no reason for the economy to fall into a deep hole. Commodity prices are good, interest rates are at record lows, and the labour market is tight. But the economy is facing credit and cost headwinds and the global outlook is deteriorating. On the latter, for all that our commodity prices have been resilient, the risks are looking decidedly one-sided. Upside risks to growth appear few and far between and with the inflation outlook not consistent with the target midpoint we expect two more OCR cuts this year.”

                    Full release here.

                    BoJ Wakatabe: Monetary policy won’t be normalized until economy and prices are back to normal

                      BoJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said told business leaders in Aomori that “the ultimate objective of monetary policy is the sound development of the economy. In other words, monetary policy won’t be normalized until the economy and prices are in a normal state.” And he pledged “the BoJ will guide policy to ensure Japan never falls into deflation again.”

                      Meanwhile, Wakatabe urged ” increased attention to heightening risks to the BoJ’s scenario”. In particular, prolonged US-China trade tensions would not just hit the global economy through higher tariffs. Sentiments would be dampened and businesses could be discouraged from investing.

                      Trump-Xi meeting confirmed at 0230GMT on Sat

                        The Trump-Xi meeting on sideline of G20 in Japan is confirmed to be held at 0230 GMT on Saturday. The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong reported that conditions on stopping further escalation in tariffs are already agreed upon. And the agreement will be laid out after the meeting in form of coordinated press releases, rather than joint statement.

                        Public comments regarding 25% tariffs on USD 300B of Chinese imports, essentially all untaxed, would end on July 2. Trump could formally make a decision to start imposing the tariffs very soon, should trade negotiations collapse once again. Trump also made himself very clear yesterday and said “I would do additional tariffs, very substantial additional tariffs, if that doesn’t work, if we don’t make a deal.”

                        Fed Daly uncomfortable on inflation direction, but needs more data to call for rate cut

                          San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said yesterday that she is uncomfortable with current direction of inflation. And, “headwinds, slowing growth could strengthen argument for rate cut.” And that could help “bring the economy back to potential growth, support return of inflation to target”

                          However, she emphasized that it’s a “challenging time” and “risk management is on my mind”. wants to “see another US jobs report to see if last report was noise or a more meaningful sign.” Also, the next several weeks will be key to showing how much of an argument there is for a rate cut.

                          WTI oil surges, pressing 60, as oil inventories dropped -12.8M barrels

                            US commercial crude oil inventories dropped sharply by -12.8M barrels in the week ending June 21. That’s a much larger decline than expectation of -2.7M barrels. At 469.6M barrels, crude oil inventories are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year.

                            WTI crude oil jumps sharply to as high as 59.84 after the release. It’s now in a strong resistance zone between 60.03 and 61.8% retracement of 66.49 to 50.64 at 60.34. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. However, as there is upside re-acceleration above 55 day EMA, further rise would remain expected as long as 58.14 support holds.

                            Sustained break of 60.34 will pave the way to retest 66.49 resistance. This will also add to the case that rise from 42.05 is resuming. Though, break of 58.14 will suggest rejection by the 60.03/34 resistance zone and turn near term outlook bearish for 50.64 support again.

                            US trade deficit widened to USD -74.5B, durable goods orders dropped -1.3%

                              US advance goods trade deficit widened 5.1% to USD -74.5B in May, up from USD -70.9B. That’s also larger than expectation of USD -71.8B. Exports rose USD 4.1B to USD 1402.B. Meanwhile, imports rose USD 7.8B to USD 214.7B.

                              Durable goods orders dropped -1.3% in May, worse than expectation of -0.1%. But ex-transport orders rose 0.3%, above expectation of 0.1%. Ex-defense order dropped -0.6%.

                              Into US session: NZD strongest, Yen weakest on trade optimism

                                Entering into US session, New Zealand Dollar remains the strongest one for today, followed by Australian and then Canadian. On the other hand, Yen is so far the weakest, followed by Swiss Franc. Sentiments were lifted by optimistic comments from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on trade. He reiterated that the negotiations are 90% complete and could be done by end of the year. Additionally, Bloomberg reported, quoting unnamed source, that US is preparing to delay imposition of new tariffs, in exchange for China’s agreement to return to negotiation take. And, some advisers went further to push Trump to refrain from setting a hard deadline, to avoid a situation similar to last December’s Trump-Xi summit.

                                RBNZ kept OCR unchanged and hinted on an August rate cut. The easing bias is actually well priced in and traders responded to the positive reference to the economy instead. That is, RBNZ noted that “GDP growth had held up more than projected” in Q1. And “some of the factors supporting growth in the quarter would continue.” BoE Governor Mark Carney noted again policy response to no-deal Brexit is not automatic. Nevertheless, it’s more likely for BoE to provide additional monetary accommodation in case of no-deal Brexit, then to tighten.

                                In Europe, currently:

                                • FTSE is up 0.13%.
                                • DAX is up 0.47%.
                                • CAC is up 0.16%.
                                • German 10-year yield is up 0.017 at -0.312.

                                Earlier in Asia:

                                • Nikkei dropped -0.51%.
                                • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.13%.
                                • China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.19%.
                                • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.09%.
                                • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0062 at -0.145.

                                BoE Saunders: Series of rolling Brexit deadlines have greater adverse affect on growth

                                  BoE Governor Mark Carney noted both PM candidate, former foreign minister Boris Johnson and the current incumbent Jeremy Hunt had indicated that they wanted to reach a deal with EU on Brexit. Carney reiterated that BoE it would not factor in no-deal Brexit into its economic forecasts, unless the government changes its policy. He told the parliament that “in the event that the policy of the government were to switch, the forecast of the Bank of England would switch accordingly. Also, he noted again policy response to no-deal Brexit is not automatic. Nevertheless, it’s more likely for BoE to provide additional monetary accommodation in case of no-deal Brexit, then to tighten.

                                  MPC member Michael Saunders warned that “a series of rolling deadlines would probably imply a heightened uncertainty and have a greater adverse affect on growth.” And, “now that is not a reason to do the things that business fear…, but the outlook for the economy would be very different if you knew now that there was going to be a smooth Brexit compared to one where you have a rolling series of deadlines and at each point there is the risk of a no-deal Brexit.”

                                  US Ross: China must cease inappropriate activities on trade

                                    US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a Fox Business Network interview that US is “not looking for victory” on trade negotiations. And, the country just want “a sensible deal that addresses the legitimate issues that we have.”

                                    Ross pointed out again that “there are some inappropriate activities underway by the Chinese” and warned “they must cease”. He added, “if they do, if we make some redressing of the trade imbalance, then that’s a reasonable deal for both parties.”

                                    Mnuchin: US-China trade deal 90% done, hopeful to complete by year end

                                      US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC that US-China trade agreement is 90% done. And he’s hopeful to move forward with a plan to complete the deal by the end of the year.

                                      He said “We were about 90% of the way there (with a deal) and I think there’s a path to complete this”. And, “the message we want to hear is that they want to come back to the table and continue because I think there is a good outcome for their economy and the U.S. economy to get balanced trade and to continue to build on this relationship.”

                                      Mnuchin also aid “I’m hopeful that we can move forward with a plan … President Trump and President Xi have a very close working relationship. We had a productive meeting at the last G-20.” He’s hopeful a deal could be struck by the end of the year but said “there needs to be the right efforts in place.”

                                      Japan Abe expects US-China trade resolution, France to insist on climate change agreement at G20

                                        Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, host of this week’s G20 summit in Osaka, urged the group to deliver a strong message on issues including promotion of free trade, innovation-driven global growth and rule-making for the digital economy. He also expressed optimism that US and China will resolve their conflicts on trade. Abe said in a news conference, “I expect that the United States and China will resolve their trade friction in a constructive manner through dialogue such as their bilateral meeting at G20”.

                                        Separately, it’s reported that French President Emmanuel Macron would insist on mentioning Paris climate change accord in the communiques. An unnamed French official was quoted by Reuters, “as for myself, I have one red line. If we don’t talk about the Paris Agreement and if we don’t get an agreement on it amongst the 20 members in the room, we are no longer capable of defending our climate change goals, and France will not be part of this, it’s as simple as that.”

                                        German Gfk consumer sentiment dropped to 9.8, economic expectation halted downward spiral

                                          Germany Gfk consumer sentiment for July dropped to 9.8, down from 10.1 and missed expectation of 10.0. On the positive side, Economic Expectation rose from 1.7 to 2.4. Gfk noted that “the downward spiral that economic expectation began at the start of 2018 halted in June, at least for the moment.” Still, “the global economic cooling off, on-going discussions around Brexit, and the trade war with the USA are putting a strain on the economic indicator”.

                                          On the other hand, Income Expectations, which dropped from 57.7 to 45.5, was a major drag. Gfk noted: “the voices heralding the end of the employment boom are growing. As a result, fears concerning job losses have increased at a number of employers”.

                                          Full release here.