BoJ: All nine regions expanding or recovering, but uncertainties heightened

    In the quarterly Regional Economic Report, BoJ kept assessment of all nine regions unchanged. All nine regions reported that their economy had been “either expanding or recovering”. Domestic demand had “continued on an uptrend”, with a virtuous cycle from income to spending operating in both the corporate and household sectors. But, exports and production had been affected by the “slowdown in overseas economies”.

    Also, while the assessments were overall unchanged, “a somewhat increasing number of firms were pointing to heightening uncertainties over the outlook for overseas economies and their impacts, reflecting, for example, the U.S.-China trade friction.”

    Full report here.

    Wang: China can’t shut out the world, world can’t shut out China

      Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan said in the World Peace Forum that “China’s development can’t shut out the rest of the world. The world’s development can’t shut out China”. Without naming any country, he warned against “protectionism in the name of national security”

      Wang also called on major powers to contribute more to global peace and stability. He added, “large countries must assume their responsibilities and set an example, make more contributions to global peace and stability, and broaden the path of joint development.”

      And he emphasized that “development is the key to resolving all issues”. At the same time, Wang pledged that China will walk the path of peace, as “if there is no peaceful, stable international environment, there will be no development to talk of.”

      Wang is an extremely close ally of President Xi Jinping but rarely speaks in the public regarding public issues. It remains to be seen if he’s speech was part of the campaign in stronger rhetorics in Sino-US relationships. Recently, China has warned that all punitive tariffs have to be removed to complete a trade deal. Also, it’s reported that purchases of US agricultural products are tied to how Huawei ban would be lifted.

      China foreign exchange reserves rose 0.6% to USD 3.119T

        China’s foreign exchange reserves rose USD 18.2B, or 0.6%, to USD 3.119T in June. Value of gold reserves rose from USD 79.83B to USD 87.27B. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange noted that Dollar index dropped while asset prices in international markets rose in June, factored by global trade situation and monetary policy of major central banks. Combined together, exchange rate conversion and asset price changes contributed to the increase in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

        SAFE also noted despite increased uncertainties, China’s economy has been “generally stable and operating in a reasonable range”. Supply and demand in the foreign exchange market has been “basically balance”. Looking forward, China will continue to promote high-quality economic development and actively implement all-round opening up measures.

        Resilience and sustainability of economic growth will be further enhanced. These will provide strong support for the stability of China’s foreign exchange market, thus providing a solid foundation for maintaining the overall stability of foreign exchange reserves.

        BoJ Kuroda: Will make necessary policy adjustments to sustain the economy’s momentum

          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the central bank’s regional branch managers that inflation is still expected to pick up gradually to 2% target. The economy is expected to continue expanding moderately as a trend, even though it’s affected by overseas slowdown. But still, BoJ would maintain easing for as long as needed to hit stable target.

          Kuroda reiterated that short- and long-term interest rate will be kept at current very low levels for extended period, “at least through around spring 2020”. Also, monetary base will continue to expand, and QQE will be maintained under the yield curve control framework.

          Also, Kuroda pledged that “the BOJ will make necessary policy adjustments to sustain the economy’s momentum towards achieving its inflation target.”

          ECB Villeroy: Economic signals continuing slowdown, but also significant wage increase and job creation

            ECB Governor Council member François Villeroy de Galhau hinted that the central bank could launch fresh stimulus before IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde takes over Mario Draghi’s job as ECB President. He noted that “If we speak about monetary policy we have several Governing Councils to come, in the next month, including with Mario Draghi. And if and when needed, there must be no doubt about our determination to act and our capacity to act.”

            Villeroy said policymakers look at the market, but emphasized “we are not market dependent, we are data dependent”. And, “if we look at the economic signals there is a continuing slowdown but there also significant wage increases … significant job creation on both sides of the Atlantic. So let us wait for our next Governing Council, and there are several to come, to assess the data and then to decide.”

            Meanwhile, he also pointed to trade tensions as the biggest uncertainty and threat to the global economy. However, “it’s up to political leaders to reduce these uncertainties, which are sometimes self created. We cannot compensate for trade tensions.”

            Canada employment dropped -2.2k, missed expectation, USD/CAD rebound

              Canada employment contracted -2.2k in June, below expectation of 10.0k. Unemployment rate rose to 5.5%, up from 5.4% but matched expectations.

              USD/CAD rebounds strongly with the contrast in today’s job data from US and Canada. Focus is back on 1.3145 minor resistance immediately. Break will suggest that 1.3052/68 cluster support zone is defended for now. And a short term bottom is formed at 1.3037. Further rise could be then be seen back to 1.3239 support turned resistance next.

              US NFP grew 224k in June, dollar jumps sharply

                US non-farm payroll report showed 224k growth in the job market in June, notably above expectation of 164k. Prior month’s dismal figure was revised slightly down from 75k to 72k. Unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 3.7%, above expectation of 3.6%. Participation rate rose 0.1% to 62.9%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. But prior month’s wage growth was revised up from 0.2% mom to 0.3% mom.

                Employment growth has averaged 172,000 per month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018. In June, notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

                Full release here.

                Dollar jumps sharply after the release. In particular, GBP/USD is heading to retest 1.2506 support.

                BoJ survey shows 83.4% of public expects prices to rise over five years

                  According to BoJ’s Opinion Survey, 83.4% of public expects price level to go up over the next five years. That’s up from 82.3% in March and was the highest since June 2016. Among them, 28.7% expects price level to go up significantly, up from 26.9%. 54.7% expects price to go up slightly, down from 54.7%.

                  On price levels one year from now, 80.5% expects prices to go up. 11.7% expects prices to go up significantly, up from 11.3%. 68.8% expects prices to go up slightly, up fro 67.4%.

                  Full survey results here.

                  Separately, BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya told a Reuters Newsmaker event today that the baseline scenario is that “economy will continue to expand moderately and gradually push up inflation to our target”.

                  He added that “The output gap is still positive. More companies are raising prices. If this trend continues, people’s perception of future price moves will change. At present, the momentum (for inflation to hit 2%) is sustained.”

                  Though, he also warned of various downside risks. And he emphasized “if such risks hurt the economy’s momentum to achieve our price target, we won’t hesitate to consider easing more.”

                  German factory orders dropped -2.2%, foreign orders plunged

                    German factory orders dropped sharply by -2.2% mom in May, much worse than expectation of -0.1% mom. Looking at some details, domestic orders increased by 0.7% mom but foreign orders plunged -4.3% mom. New orders from Eurozone dropped -1.7% mom while orders from other countries dropped -5.7% mom.

                    The contraction was also broad-based. Intermediate goods orders dropped -1.5% mom. Capital goods orders dropped -2.8% mom. Consumer goods orders dropped -0.7%.

                    EUR/USD trades mildly lower in European session today but that’s mainly due to Dollar’s pre-NFP recovery. German 10-year bund yield breached ECB’s deposit rate (-0.4%) for the first time yesterday. It’s recovering mildly today, at -0.394 for the moment. But -0.4 level remains vulnerable.

                    NFP watched as markets still pricing 100% chance of July Fed Cut

                      US non-farm payroll report will be the major focus today, as it’s a crucial factor to Fed’s rate decision later in the month. For now, fed funds futures are still pricing in 100% chance of a rate cut on July 31, with 30.7% chance of 50bps cut. The pricing suggests that even a set of strong job data today won’t deter Fed’s cut. But a set of weak number would solidifies it. At least, this seems to be what the traders think.

                      Looking at other job related data, ADP employment rebounded in June and grew 102k. ISM Manufacturing Employment rose from 53.7 to 54.5. ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment dropped from 58.1 to 55.0. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims dropped rose slightly from 215k to 222k. Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped from131.3 to 121.5, lowest since September 2017.

                      As for NFP, markets are expecting 164k growth in June. Unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% mom. Dollar could suffer some heavy selloff on downside surprises today. But reactions to upside surprise are relatively uncertain.

                      Some previews here.

                      Japan household spending rose 4% yoy in May, highest in four years

                        Japan overall household spending rose 4.0% yoy in May, well above expectation of 1.40% yoy. That’s the fastest pace in four years since May 2015. The results argued that pickup in consumption could help offset some weakness in external demand in Q2.

                        However, spending ahead could be weighed down by sluggish wage growth ahead. Sentiments could also weaken on uncertainty over economic outlook, due to trade war. Additionally, the scheduled sales tax hike could also have negative impacts on spending.

                        For now, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is holding on to the plan to raise sales tax to 10% this October.

                        BoJ Amamiya: No plan to issue digital currency in the near future

                          BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said today the central bank has no plan to issue digital currency in the near future. And he disagreed to the idea that central banks can boost the effectiveness of negative interest rate policies by issuing digital currencies. “To overcome the nominal zero lower bound, central banks would need to eliminate cash,” Amamiya said. “Eliminating cash would make settlement infrastructure inconvenient for the public, so no central bank would do this.”

                          On the economy, Amamiya still expected to climb to 2% target. But he repeated BOJ wouldn’t hesitate to ease policy further if momentum to hit inflation target is disrupted. While downside risks are strong, he noted many global central bankers share the view that global economy will recover in the second half.

                          China said to tie US agricultural purchases to lift of Huawei ban

                            An SCMP report in Hong Kong suggested that China’s commitment to buy additional agricultural products, as part of the agreement with US to halt trade war escalation, was not unconditional. Apparently, as Chinese media noted, if US “flip-flops” again in future trade negotiations, the purchase will be stopped again.

                            Additionally, China would want to see how the ban on tech giant Huawei is lifted, before committing the purchases. Trump has promised to ease supply ban on Huawei and White House could make an announcement on the details soon. For now, it’s believed that Trump’s administration was still debating how to ease the restrictions.

                            German 10-yr yield breaks ECB’s -0.4% deposit rate, Rehn calls for easing now

                              German 10-year bund yield drops to another record low of -0.407 so far today. More importantly, it’s now below ECB’s -0.40% deposit rate for the first time ever. The steep decline is interpreted as a clear sign that markets are expecting further rate cut by the central bank.

                              Firstly, ECB President Mario Draghi has already set the easing course last month, even though he’s on the way out later this year. Secondly, the nomination of current IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is seen as a node to further easing.

                              Such expectation is further affirmed by explicitly dovish comments from Governing Council member Olli Rehn. He told German newspaper Boersen Zeitung that “if we really want to live up to our mandate, further monetary stimulus is now needed until there is improvement in economic and inflation prospects”.

                              “We should no longer see the recent slowdown in growth as a brief temporary dip in the economy, as a ‘soft patch’, Rehn added. “We are experiencing a longer phase of weaker growth.” Also, what is also of great concern to us now are inflation expectations,” Rehn said. “Market-based inflation expectations have fallen sharply and remain far too low.”

                              China: US must lift all punitive tariffs for a trade deal to be reached

                                Gao Feng, spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Commerce, said US must remove all punitive tariffs for a trade deal to be reached between the two countries.

                                He noted in a regular press briefing that tariffs hurt both sides and ultimately harm the interests of American corporations and consumers. Tariffs also create uncertainty for the global economy.

                                Gao also confirmed that teams from both sides are in contact on trade negotiations.

                                Eurozone retail sales dropped -0.3% mom, well below expectation

                                  Eurozone retail sales dropped -0.3% mom in May, below expectation of 0.4% mom rise. Volume of retail trade decreased by -1.3% for automotive fuel, by -0.5% for food, drinks and tobacco, and by -0.1% for non-food products

                                  EU28 retail sales dropped -0.4% mom. Trade volume decreased by -1.6% for automotive fuel, by -0.5% for food, drinks and tobacco, and by -0.3% for non-food products.

                                  Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Croatia (-4.4%), Lithuania (-3.0%) and Sweden (-2.8%). The highest increases were observed in Portugal (1.5%), Spain (1.1%) and Belgium (1.0%).

                                  Full release here.

                                  Australia retail sales rose 0.1%, missed expectations, AUD/JPY steady

                                    Australia retail sales rose 0.1% mom in May, below expectation of 0.2% mom.

                                    ABS Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, Ben James said: “There were mixed results across the industries with rises in Cafes, restaurant and takeaway food services (0.7%), Household goods retailing (0.5%), and Other retailing (0.6%). These rises were offset by falls in Food retailing (-0.3%), Department stores (-0.4%), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.2%).”

                                    In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in Victoria (0.6%), South Australia (0.5%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.7%), and the Northern Territory (0.5%). There were falls in Queensland (-0.3%), New South Wales (-0.1%), Western Australia (-0.2%), and Tasmania (-0.4%).

                                    Full release here.

                                    AUD/JPY is steady despite the data miss. AUD is lifted this week despite RBA rate cut. Strong rise in iron ore price and solid export data are supporting the Aussie. A short term bottom should be in place at 73.93 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 70.27 to 80.71 at 74.25. For now, further rise is in favor as long as 75.13 minor support holds. Break of 76.28 resistance and sustained trading above 55 day EMA will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement of 80.71 to 73.93 at 78.12. However, rejection by 55 day EMA, followed by 75.13 minor support, will likely resume the fall from 80.71 through 73.93 low.

                                    WH Kudlow: Won’t lift tariffs during trade talks with China

                                      White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow said US-China trade negotiations will “continue in earnest this coming week”. The teams are “on the phone” and are “going to be on the phone this coming week”. He doesn’t know “precisely when” but the teams will be scheduling face-to face meeting.

                                      Meanwhile, Kudlow emphasized that “We’ve been accommodative. We will not lift tariffs during the talks” He added, “we are hoping that China will toe its end of it by purchasing a good many of American imports.”

                                      Crude oil inventories dropped -1.1m barrels, WTI soft after prior rejection by 60

                                        US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -1.1m barrels in the week ending June 28, higher than expectation of -2.8m barrels. At 468.5m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year.

                                        WTI crude oil stays soft after the release. It tumbled earlier this week as market is concerned that the output cut announced by OPEC+ would not be sufficient to correct the imbalance driven by the global economic slowdown. (More in this report)

                                        Technically, a short term top should be formed at 60.22 after rejection by resistance zone between 60.03 and 61.8% retracement of 66.49 to 50.64 at 60.34. WTI is also back below both 55 day and 4 hour 55 EMA. Deeper fall is now mildly in favor to 54.86 resistance turned support.

                                        For now, we’re slightly favoring the case the decline from 66.39 has completed at 50.64. Thus, we’d look for strong support below 54.86 to contain downside to bring rebound. Near term outlook will, for now, stays neutral until a break of 50.64 or 60.22.

                                        EU won’t open excessive deficit orocedure for Italy

                                          European Commission decided today not to go ahead to open the so called Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) for Italy’s lack of compliance with the debt criterion.

                                          In the statement, Valdis Dombrovskis, Vice-President for the Euro and Social Dialogue, also in charge of Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, said: “I welcome the actions taken by the Italian government to ensure a better budget outcome in 2019. Ensuring sound public finances is a bedrock for confidence and growth. Respecting the commitment to prepare a 2020 budget in line with the EU fiscal rules and thus avoiding further uncertainty will be important in this context.”

                                          Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs, said: “The aim of the Stability and Growth Pact is not to punish or discipline anyone; it is to ensure that governments pursue sound public finances and correct problems swiftly when they occur. I am pleased to note this is the case today. The Italian government has responded to the Commission’s signal one month ago that an Excessive Deficit Procedure was warranted by adopting a sound package of measures that ensure broad compliance with the Pact. We will carefully monitor the implementation of these measures in the second half of the year. Moreover, we stand ready to ensure that the 2020 draft budget to be presented this autumn will be compliant with the Pact. I have no doubt that we will work seamlessly in this context with the next Commission.”

                                          Full statement here.