New Zealand BusinessNZ PMI rose to 51.3, but employment worsened

    New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose to 51.3 in June, up from 50.4. BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that while the sector avoided further deterioration in activity from May, there were still a number of concerns about manufacturing’s current state of play.

    She said: “The key sub-indexes of production (51.0) and new orders (52.8) recovered from May, which ensured the sector didn’t fall into contraction for June.  However,  employment (48.0) worsened to its lowest level since August 2016, while deliveries of raw materials (48.9) also fell into negative territory for the first time since December 2017, and its lowest result since September 2012.

    Full release here.

    Fed Brainard: Softer path of monetary policy called for, on risk management principles

      Fed Governor Lael Brainard said the economic outlook is “solid” as supported by consumer spending. However, business spending has been “lackluster” with soft sentiment. And, lower inflation expectations could be entrenched if Fed allows inflation to run below target for too long. And, that would make it even hard for Fed to cushion the next downturn.

      She expressed her support for a rate cut as “taking into account the downside risks at a time when inflation is on the soft side would argue for softening the expected path of monetary policy according to basic principles of risk management.”

      Though, she added, “of course, my judgment about the actual path of policy will continue to be influenced by the evolution of the data and the risks.”

      Fed Bostic: Storm clouds not generating a storm yet

        Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he would to to July’s FOMC meeting with an open mind. But, “I do feel that with respect to both objectives of our dual mandate, we are in a good position,” suggesting he’s not backing a rate cut for now.

        Bostic noted expectations regarding the economic outlook “are remaining pretty stable”. And, “I am not seeing the storm clouds actually generate a storm yet.” he has been talking business people in the last couple week. He noted, “they are not leaning back…They are not cutting jobs, They are not cutting investments that have already been underway. While “they are cautious… they haven’t stopped… they’ve just slowed”.

        On inflation, he said “the best measures suggest it is close to target and not materially trending away from it.”

        Fed Williams: Expectation of Fed cut contributing to consumer and business spending

          New York Fed President John Williams said that case for rate cut is getting stronger. And, market expectation on Fed’s rate cut are already helping spending.

          He said “if anything, relative to earlier in the year, the conditions, the arguments for adding policy accommodation have strengthened over time, and I think that’s the way I continue to view it.” And, “the markets expect cuts so therefore you see lower mortgage rates, you see lower interest rates, and stronger financial conditions broadly, and I think that contributes to more consumer spending and business spending.”

          On the economy, he said it’s in a “good place” but appears now to be “growing at a more moderate pace” than last year”. He pointed to the uncertainties, “especially related to trade and global growth”. And, “we have issues around inflation expectations being soft, obviously inflation continuing to run below 2%.”

          Trump blasts Bitcoin and Libra, hails Dollar

            Trump blasted Bitcoin and other Crytpocurrencies as they are “not money” with value “highly volatile and based on thin air”. He criticized that “unregulated crypto assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity”. Also, Facebook’s Libra “will have little standing or dependability”.

            He then hailed the only “real currency” the United States Dollar. He said the USD is “stronger than ever, both dependable and reliable”, the “most dominate currency anywhere in the World”.

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            IMF sees Eurozone facing prolonged period of anemic growth and inflation

              IMF forecasts Eurozone growth to slow to 1.3% in 2019, then rebound to 1.6% in 2020. Inflation is forecast to be at 1.3% in 201 and remain far off ECB’s 2% target at least until 2022. it urged that ECB’s monetary policy stimulus was “vital” as Eurozone was facing “a prolonged period of anemic growth and inflation”. And, “the undershooting of the inflation objective calls for prolonged monetary accommodation.”

              IMF expected more monetary easing could be necessary if inflation expectations worsen. However, it also raised doubt on the idea of tiered deposit rate in case of more monetary easing. It said “a regime of tiering… would have a very small impact on aggregate bank profitability and a questionable impact on credit conditions.”

              Fed Barkin: We have a look of time before July FOMC meeting

                In a Bloomberg interview, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin rejected the idea that a July rate cut is a done deal. He emphasized “we have a lot of time left before the meeting, we’ll see what happens.”

                For now, he said the economy was not heading to a recession. He added “I actually still feel pretty good about the economy… I don’t see any issues on the consumer side of the house”.

                Though, risks to outlook is “a little more tilted to the downside” for fragile business confidence. Indicators for second-quarter growth are less strong.

                Trump confirms there is no agricultural purchase from China yet

                  Trump complains with his tweet that China is “letting us down” for not buying agricultural products from the US yet. But he added “hopefully they will start soon”. Separately, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow also said today that he expected China to start purchasing farm products soon.

                  It’s unsure how “soon” China will start the purchase. But comments from both Trump and Kudlow confirmed that the purchase hasn’t even started yet even though trade teams on both sides have resumed communications.

                  It’s reported earlier that China is linking the purchases to lift of Huawei’s sanctions. That is, if China won’t start the purchases if Xi is unhappy with how the restrictions in supplying US tech products to Huawei are removed. It seems that the communications between the trade team haven’t enter into something of substance yet.

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                  Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, Day 2, live stream

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                    US core CPI accelerated to 2.1%, large monthly rise of 0.3% since 2018

                      US headline CPI slowed to 1.6% yoy in June, down from 1.8% yoy, matched expectations. But that was mainly due to a drag from energy price index, which dropped -3.4% yoy.

                      On the other hand, CPI core accelerated to 2.1% yoy, up from 2.0% yoy, beat expectation of 2.0% yoy. Also, over the month, CPI core rose 0.3% mom, largest monthly rise since January 2018.

                      Full release here.

                      US initial jobless claims dropped -13k to 209k

                        US initial jobless claims dropped -13k to 209k in the week ending July 6, below expectation of 221k. Four week moving average of initial claims dropped -3.25k to 219.25k.

                        Continuing claims rose 27k to 1.723m in the week ending June 29. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 5.75k to 1.695m.

                        Full release here.

                        ECB accounts: Broad agreement that update of monetary policy stance was called for

                          Account of the ECB monetary policy meeting in June showed there was “broad agreement” that “update of the monetary policy stance was called for”, due to “prolongation of uncertainties” and the implications for inflation outlook. And inflation was still projected to reach “only 1.6%” in 2021, which was seen to remain “some distance away” from the 2% target. Thus, it’s considered “important” to “demonstration” ECB’s “determination to act”.

                          Also, there was “broad agreement” on adjusting the calendar based component of the forward guidance to keeping rates at present levels “at least through the first half of 2020”; reiterating the guidance on reinvestment; and thirdly, to set interest rate of TTRO II equal to average MRO rate plus 10bps.

                          Full accounts here.

                          BoE: UK banking system remains strong to endure Brexit

                            In the Financial Stability Report, BoE warned that “increased Brexit uncertainties have put additional downward pressure on UK forward interest rates and led to a decline in the sterling exchange rate and an underperformance of UK-focused equities.” However, “the UK banking system remains strong enough to continue to lend through the wide range of UK economic and financial shocks that could be associated with Brexit.”

                            Governor Mark Carney also noted that that material risks of economic disruption remain from no-deal Brexit. And, major financial institutions have done what’s necessary for Brexit. However, he warned that “we can’t fully insulate ourselves from spillovers from Europe where there still are some things to be done.”

                            Globally, risks to outlook have increased during the first half of the year. BoE said “rising trade tensions have resulted in declining business confidence and pose material downside risks to global output growth.” And, “the impact of these risks would be amplified by continued material underlying vulnerabilities.”

                            BoE’s Financial Stability Report.

                            BoE Carney’s press conference on Financial Stability Report

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                              BoE Financial Stability Report.

                              China MOFCOM urges US to remove restrictions on Huawei for healthy trade and economic relations

                                In a regular press conference, China’s Ministry of Commerce Gao Feng urged the US to remove restriction on Huawei and other Chinese companies, to clear the path for healthy and stable development of Sino-US economic and trade relations. He also urged the US to truly implement such commitments

                                Additionally, he noted that “trade teams from both sides, according to the consensus reached at Osaka by leaders from both countries, will restart economic and trade negotiations on the basis of equality and mutual respect”. Also, “China believes that both sides can find a way to resolve the issue if each other’s reasonable concerns are taken into consideration through a dialogue of equals, he added.

                                Gold rebounds on weak dollar, ready for upside breakout

                                  Gold rebounded strongly overnight, following Dollar’s selloff. For now it’s staying in range below 1439.23. But it’s clear that price actions from there are just a consolidation pattern. Bullishness is also retained with 1382.52 support defended. Indeed, gold is probably ready for an upside breakout soon.

                                  On the upside, break of 1439.23 will resume whole up trend from 1160.17. 100% projection of 1160.17 to 1346.71 from 1266.26 at 1452.80 should be taken out with relative ease.

                                  Considering upside acceleration as seen in weekly MACD, gold will likely target 161.8% projection at 1568.08.

                                  Dollar selloff extends as markets see July Fed cut a done deal

                                    Dollar’s selloff extends in Asian session today, riding on the view of Fed’s rate cut in July is a done deal. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress was not decidedly dovish. But he did nothing that toned down market’s full pricing of July cut. Instead, he pointed to the continous uncertainties from trade tension and global slowdown. It seems now that continuation of uncertainties is already enough for an insurance rate, rather than manifested deterioration in outlook.

                                    The tone was somewhat echoed by June FOMC minutes too. The minutes indicated that Fed’s monetary stance has moved to “risk management” with “several” of them believing a rate cut should be implemented to “cushion the effects of possible future adverse shocks”. Additionally, the minutes acknowledged that current financial conditions are “premised importantly on expectations that the Federal Reserve would ease policy in the near term to help offset the drag on economic growth stemming from uncertainties about the global outlook and other downside risks”.

                                    Suggested readings:

                                    German Altmaier open to drop subsides on Airbus, if US does so with Boeing

                                      German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier is set to meet US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to discussion resolution to the Boeing-Airbus dispute. He would be open to eliminating all government subsidies to Airbus, on condition that US would do the same to Boeing.

                                      He said, “I could perfectly go along with … we will no longer provide any subsidies on both sides. Then it is just competition and nothing else.” He added, “it is in the interest of both sides to avoid these tit-for-tit tariffs”, referring to the tariffs between US and EU on the issue.

                                      Altmaier also had a “productive and constructive” meeting with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. He noted that “We are in the middle of intensive discussions. For me, the Americans remain partners and friends despite our disagreements.”

                                      Dollar stays weak as Fed Powell doesn’t dismiss July cut, but loss limited

                                        Dollar remains generally weak but selloff in so far rather limited except versus Yen. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t sound particular dovish at the Congressional testimony. Yet, he basically did nothing to alter market expectations of a 25bps rate cut by Fed in July. That’s generally taken as a nod to the cut.

                                        Among the Q&As, there’s one thing that’s rather important. Asked if June’s stronger than expected job report had changed Fed’s thinking, Powell bluntly said “a straight answer to your question is, no.” But then, Powell still sounded non-committal to any move in interest rates. But he pointed to the upcoming data including CPI this week, retail sales next week, and Q2 GDP the week after. All these data will be taken in to considerations at the next FOMC meeting.

                                        In the stock markets, DOW hit as high as 26983.45 earlier today but pared back much gains to 26860, up only 0.29%. S&P 500 also breached 3000 handle for the first time ever but it’s now back below 2985.

                                        Focus in USD/JPY is now back on 108.28 minor support. Break there will indicate failure to sustain above 108.80 resistance, and completion of rebound from 106.78. Deeper fall would then be seen back to 107.53 support and then 106.78 low.

                                        US oil inventories dropped -9.5m barrels, WTI back pressing 60

                                          US commercial crude oil inventories dropped sharply by -9.5m barrels in the week ending July 5. That’s much larger decline than expectation of -1.9m barrels. At 459.0m barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year.

                                          WTI oil extends this week’s rebound and hits as high as 59.78 so far. It’ possibly set to retest key resistance zone of 60.03 and 61.8% retracement of 66.49 to 50.64 at 60.34. At this point, we don’t expect a firm break there yet. And consolidation pattern from 60.22 should extend with least another fall back to 56.06. In that case, downside should be contained above 54.86 support. Overall, range trading should continue.