BoJ Amamiya: Prepared to take policy actions to prevent risks from materializing

    BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya signals today that the central bank stand ready to loosen up monetary policy further. In a speech to business leaders, he said, “the BOJ is no different from other major central banks, in that it is prepared to take, if necessary, policy action to prevent risks from materializing.”

    He added that overseas risks could spillover to Japan and, “We need to be mindful that the economy may lose momentum if risks, mainly those from overseas economies, materialize”. BoJ’s tool set includes rate cuts and asset purchases and policy makers may “combine these steps or apply them in various forms.”

    Dollar rally solidified by Trump’s tweets that bash Fed chair Powell

      Dollar surges broadly overnight after Fed cut interest rate by -25bps to 2.00-2.25% as widely expected. The trigger for Dollar buying came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. He described the rate cut as a “mid-cycle” adjustment of policy, and then added he was “contrasting with the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle”. The message was clear that he tried to talk down the expectations of further interest rate cuts ahead. The key would be developments in global economy, trade tensions, domestic data and inflation.

      Suggested readings on FOMC:

      Trump bashed Powell again with his tweets. Trump said “What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle which would keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries around the world….As usual, Powell let us down, but at least he is ending quantitative tightening, which shouldn’t have started in the first place – no inflation. We are winning anyway, but I am certainly not getting much help from the Federal Reserve!”

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      Ironically, Trumps tweets somehow confirmed market understanding of what Powell tried to deliver. And they help solidify Dollar’s rally and stocks’ selloff. DOW dropped -1.23% overnight. S&P 500 dropped -1.09% and NASDAQ dropped -1.19%. While a short term top was clearly formed at 3027.98 record high in S&P 500, it’s too early to call for reversal. The uptrend looks tired with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there will be first line of defense from 55 day EMA and then second line in medium term trend line. Recent uptrend starts to look week but it’s still healthy.

      Dollar jumps as Fed chair Powell said today’s cut is just mid-cycle adjustment

        Dollar rally solidifies after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicates in the post meeting press conference that, today’s rate cut is a “mid-cycle” adjustment of policy. He further clarifies later that he was “contrasting with the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle”. Fed will keep on monitoring the risks from global slowdown, trade, domestic growth and inflation, in adjustment of future policy path. However, today’s cut , as Powell hints, doesn’t guarantee and imply there will be further rate cuts ahead.

        EUR/USD drops through 1.1107 key support decisively, after recovery was rejected by falling 4 hour 55 EMA. The pair was also rejected well by 55 week EMA too. Down trend from 1.2555 is resuming and next medium term target will be 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0862.

        In the stock markets, DOW dives sharply and hits as low as 27812.62. It’s currently down around -1.1%, or -300 pts.

        Fed Chair Powell’s press conference live stream

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          Fed cut interest rates to 2.00-2.25%, full statement

            Fed cuts federal funds rate by -25bps to 2.00-2.25%. The decision was made by 8-2 vote, with two known hawks, Esther George and Eric Rosengren dissenting.

            Fed noted that household spending growth has picked up but growth of business fixed investment “has been soft”. Headline and core inflation are “running below” 2%. And, in light of the “implications of global developments” and “muted inflation pressures” FOMC decided to cut interest rates.

            Fed also pledged to continue to monitor the “implications of incoming information” to decide future interest rate path. The assessment will “take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.”

            Full statement below.

            Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

            Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

            Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

            In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

            The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.

            Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

            US oil inventories dropped -8.5m barrles, WTI mildly higher

              US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -8.5m barrels in the week ending July 26, more than expectation of -2.5m barrels. At 436.5m barrels, crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.

              WTI crude oil’s recovery from 54.79 extends slightly higher after the release. But upside momentum is not too convincing for now. Price actions from 60.93 are still seen as correcting the rise from 50.64. Such consolidation could extend further for a while. Therefore, we don’t expect a break of 60.93 in case of further rally. Instead, another fall through 54.79 is mildly in favor at a later stage when the correcting extends.

              Canada GDP grew 0.2% in May, third straight month of expansion

                Canada GDP grew for a third consecutive month in May, by 0.2% mom, beat expectation of 0.1% mom. The increase was led by a rebound in manufacturing with 13 out of 20 industrial sectors expanding. On a three-month rolling average basis, real gross domestic product increased 0.7%.

                Also from Canada, IPPI dropped -1.4% mom in June versus expectation of -0.1% mom. RMPI dropped -5.9% mom versus expectation of -0.4% mom.

                USD/CAD dips after the releases. But it’s staying above 1.3116 minor support. Rebound in 1.3016 is still in favor to resume at a later stage.

                US ADP employment grew 156k, job growth still healthy but slowing

                  US ADP private employment grew 156k in July, slightly above expectation of 150k. Prior month’s figure was revised up from 102k to 112k. Goods producing jobs rise 9k. Service-providing jobs rose 146k.

                  “While we still see strength in the labor market, it has shown signs of weakening,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “A moderation in growth is expected as the labor market tightens further.”

                  Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is healthy, but steadily slowing. Small businesses are suffering the brunt of the slowdown. Hampering job growth are labor shortages, layoffs at bricks-and-mortar retailers, and fallout from weaker global trade.”

                  Full release here.

                  China MOFCOM: Candid, effective, constructive and deep exchange on major trade and economic issues with US

                    Regarding the two-day face-to-face US-China trade talks in Shanghai, Chinese Ministry of Commerce said “both sides, according to the consensus reached by the two leaders in Osaka, had a candid, highly effective, constructive and deep exchange on major trade and economic issues of mutual interest”.

                    The Ministry also noted in the statement that “the two sides also discussed that China will increase its procurement of US agricultural products according to domestic needs and the US will create favorable conditions for procurement.”

                    On the Chinese side, Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan and Governor of the People’s Bank of China Yi Gang, participated with involvements from Central Finance Office, Finance Ministry, Foreign Affairs Ministry, Industry and Information Technology Ministry, Central Agricultural Office, Ministry of Agriculture, etc.

                    Next high-level trade meeting will be held in the US in September.

                    US-Chin trade talks ended without any progress

                      The two-day US-China trade talks in Shanghai appeared to have ended without any progress. Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of China’s state-run hawkish Global Times tabloid, said there were “efficient and constructive” exchanges. Also “the two sides discussed increasing purchase of U.S. farm products and the U.S. side agreed to create favorable conditions for it. They will hold future talks”.

                      Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying warned earlier today that “I believe it doesn’t make any sense for the U.S. to exercise its campaign of maximum pressure at this time. It’s pointless to tell others to take medication when you’re the one who is sick.”

                      Eurozone CPI slowed to 1.1%, core to 0.9%, GDP grew just 0.2%

                        Eurozone CPI slowed to 1.1% yoy in July, down from 1.2%, matched expectation. Core CPI slowed to 0.9% yoy, down from 1.1% yoy, missed expectation of 1.0% yoy.

                        Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q2, slowed from Q1’s 0.4% qoq and matched expectations. Over the year, Eurozone GDP grew 1.1%. EU 28 GDP grew 0.2% qoq, 1.3% yoy.

                        Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.5% in June, down from 7.6% in May, matched expectations. EU28 unemployment was unchanged at 6.3%. Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates in June 2019 were recorded in Czechia (1.9%) and Germany (3.1%). The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (17.6% in April 2019) and Spain (14.0%).

                        Germany retail sales rose 3.5% in Jun, unemployment rate unchanged at 5% in Jul

                          Germany retail sales rose 3.5% mom in June, well above expectation of 0.5% mom. Over the year, retail sales dropped -1.9% yoy. Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the first six months of 2019 in real terms 2.2% higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year.

                          Also from Germany, unemployment rose 1k in July versus expectation of 2k. Unemployment claims rate was unchanged at 5.0%, matched expectations.

                          Dollar softens ahead Fed’s rate cut, some previews

                            Dollar softens mildly in Asian session as markets are preparing for FOMC rate decision in the upcoming US session. Fed fund futures continue to price in 100% chance of easing (-25bps cut at 78.1%, -50bps cut at 21.9%). There is little chance for Fed to upset such firm market expectations even though some policy makers may be reluctant to do so.

                            A -25bps cut to 2.00-2.25% should very well be priced in. The questions are whether it’s a start of an easing cycle, or just a one-off response to risks. The voting will reflect the split inside the committee. Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference is even more important in framing the cut.

                            Earlier, former Fed chair Janet Yellen endorsed today’s cut but she “wouldn’t see as the beginning… of a major easing cycle.” Former New York Fed President William Dudley also said “there’s a good chance the Fed won’t be cutting further anytime soon”. Dollar could be given a lift if Powell delivers similar messages today.

                            Some suggested previews:

                            Australia CPI accelerated to 1.6% on automotive fuel prices

                              Australia CPI rose 0.6% qoq in Q2, above expectation of 0.5% qoq. Annually, headline CPI accelerated to 1.6% yoy, up from 1.3% yoy ane beat expectation of 1.5% yoy. RBA trimmed mean CPI was unchanged at 1.6% yoy versus expectation of 1.5% yoy. RBA weighted median CPI slowed to 1.2% yoy, down from 1.4% yoy, matched expectations.

                              ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman said: “automotive fuel prices rose 10.2 per cent in the June quarter 2019. This rise had a significant impact on the CPI, contributing half of the 0.6 per cent rise this quarter. Automotive fuel prices returned to levels recorded in late 2018 after falling 8.7 per cent in the March quarter 2019.”

                              And, “annual growth in the CPI continues to be subdued due to falls in a number of administered prices. Through the year, utility prices have fallen 0.2 per cent and child care has fallen 7.9 per cent following the introduction of the Child Care Subsidy package in July 2018.”

                              Full release here.

                              ANZ business confidence dropped to -44.3, two more RBNZ cuts expected this year

                                New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped to -44.3 in July, down from -38.1. That’s also the worst reading sine August 2018. Among the sectors, agriculture scored worse at -78.5 while retail was best at -30.4. Activity Outlook Index dropped to 5.0, down from 8.0. Construction outlook was worst at -33.3 while services was best at 11.2.

                                ANZ noted: “The outlook for the economy is deteriorating. Despite generally good commodity prices and interest rates at record lows, the headwinds of a global slowdown and credit and cost constraints appear to be winning out. With the inflation outlook not consistent with the target midpoint we expect two more OCR cuts this year, helping the economy to find its feet once more.”

                                Full release here.

                                China PMI manufacturing rose to 49.7, foundation for stabilization still needs to be consolidated

                                  The official China PMI Manufacturing Index rose to 49.7 in July, up from 49.4 and beat expectation of 49.6. Looking at the details, production, new order, new export order, backlog, purchase volume, import, purchase price,, ex-factory price, employment, production and operation improved. But finished goods inventories, raw material inventory and supplier delivered dropped.

                                  Analyst Zhang Liqun noted that: “Economic downturn is slowing down…. activities have been restored…. there are signs of recovery in production and operation activities, indicating that the effect of macroeconomic policy counter-cyclical adjustment has begun to appear.”

                                  However, he also warned that ” downward pressure on the economy is still not to be underestimated. And, the foundation for stabilization still needs to be consolidated.

                                  Also released, official PMI Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 53.7, down from 54.2 and missed expectation of 54.0.

                                  UK Johnson: Ready for no-deal Brexit if EU can’t compromise, it’s their call

                                    During a visit to a farm in Wales yesterday, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson appeared to have no interest in meeting EU, unless they shift their position on Brexit. He said “if they can’t compromise, if they really can’t do it, then clearly we have to get ready for a no-deal exit, and I think we’ll do it …. it’s up to the EU, it’s their call.”

                                    His spokesman also noted that, “the prime minister made clear that the UK will be leaving the EU on October 31, no matter what,” referring to Johnson’s call with Irish Prime minister Leo Varadkar. And, “the government will approach any negotiations which take place with determination and energy and in a spirit of friendship, and that his clear preference is to leave the EU with a deal, but it must be one that abolishes the backstop”.

                                    On the other hand, the Irish government said “the Taoiseach explained that the EU was united in its view that the Withdrawal Agreement could not be reopened.”

                                    US consumer confidence rose to 135.7, highest this year

                                      Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index rose to 135.7 in July, up from 124.3, and beat expectation of 125.0. Present Situation Index rose from 164.3 to 170.9. Expectations Index Rose from 97.6 to 112.2.

                                      Conference Board said: “After a sharp decline in June, driven by an escalation in trade and tariff tensions, Consumer Confidence rebounded in July to its highest level this year,”

                                      “Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions. In addition, their expectations regarding their financial outlook also improved. These high levels of confidence should continue to support robust spending in the near-term despite slower growth in GDP.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      US core PCE rose to 1.6%, not enough to change Fed’s decision

                                        In June, personal income rose 0.4%, above expectation of 0.3%. Personal spending rose 0.3%, matched expectations. Headline PCE was unchanged at 1.4% yoy, missed expectation of 1.5% yoy. Core PCE inflation accelerated to 1.6% yoy, up from 1.5% yoy, but missed expectation of 1.7% yoy.

                                        The lack of materialistic acceleration in core inflation does nothing to alter FOMC policymakers’ mind regarding tomorrow’s rate decision. For now, Fed is still generally expected to cut interest rate by -0.25bps to 2.00-2.25%. The main question is whether Fed would explicitly say that it’s a one-off, or it’s a start of a policy easing cycle.

                                        Full release here.

                                        USD/JPY is steady after the release, staying a little bit soft. After temporary top was formed after failing to break through 108.99 resistance earlier this week. But for now, further rise is expected as long as 107.93 support holds. Break of 108.99 should eventually be seen.

                                        Euro lifted by German CPI, capped by poor Eurozone confidence

                                          Euro is lifted mildly by stronger than expectation German inflation data. But upside is capped by deteriorating confidence indicators. German CPI rose 0.5% mom in July, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Annually, CPI accelerated to 1.7% yoy, beat expectation of 1.5% yoy.

                                          Eurozone economic confidence dropped to 102.7 in July, down from 103.3 but matched expectation. Industrial confidence dropped to -7.4, missed expectation of -6.7. Services confidence dropped to 10.6, missed expectation of 10.7. Consumer confidence was finalized at -6.6. Business climate indicator dropped to -0.12, missed expectation of 102.7.

                                          EUR/USD’s recovery is rather weak and outlook remains unchanged. In case of another rise, upside should be limited well below 1.1282 resistance. Break of 1.1101 and sustained trading below 1.1107 key support will resume larger down trend from 1.2555.