Chance of no-deal Brexit jumped to 35% according latest Reuters poll

    According to the median forecast of a Reuters poll, between August 2-7, chance of no-deal Brexit jumped to 35%, up from 30% in July. And forecasts ranged from as low as 15% to as high as 75%. New UK Prime Minister Boris has been rather indecisive regarding his Brexit strategy. Except that, it’s trying to force through a exit on October 31, with or without a deal. And as Brexit uncertainty continues, economists expect GBP/USD to trade between 1.17 and 1.20 before the divorce data. That is, there is a bit more downside in the pair.

    Regarding the economy, median chance of recession within a year was put at 35%, up from 30% in July. For the next two years, media chance of recession rose to 40%, up from 35%. However, 24 of 55 economists expected BoE to stand pat this year and next. On the one hand, buoyant wage growth makes it too early for call of a cut. Yet Brexit uncertainty, in whatever form, will make it hard to tighten in the foreseeable future. 12 of 55 economists expected a cut, while 19 expected a hike.

    Separately, UK Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said in Washington, at a joint news conference with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, “We will manage the risks come what may. We will leave at the end of October and are determined to make a success of it.”

    US oil inventories rose 2.4m barrels, WTI eyes 50.64 support

      US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.4m barrels in the week ending August 2. At 438.9m barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% above the five year average for this time of year. WTI drops sharply after the release and is now eyeing 50.64 support.

      The steep decline this week now argues that decline from 60.93 is part of the whole move from 66.49. Firm break of 50.64 will target 100% projection of 66.49 to 50.64 from 60.93 at 45.08. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 54.79 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.

      Trump: Proud and incompetent Fed is the problem, not China

        Trump complained today Fed is the problem the US, not China. He tweeted, “Our problem is not China – We are stronger than ever, money is pouring into the U.S. while China is losing companies by the thousands to other countries, and their currency is under siege”.

        Instead, Fed is “too proud to admit their mistake of acting too fast and tightening too much”. And, Fed policymakers “must Cut Rates bigger and faster, and stop their ridiculous quantitative tightening NOW.” And, he further complained that “Incompetence is a terrible thing to watch, especially when things could be taken care of sooo easily.”

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        China’s foreign reserve dropped slightly to USD 3.104T in July

          China’s PBoC said that the country’s foreign currency reserves dropped to USD 3.104T in July, down from USD 3.119T. The modest decline suggested that PBoC has refrained from selling foreign exchange directly for currency intervention. And according to economists, China’s capital inflows and outflows are roughly balanced. Thus, there is little need for PBoC to buy of sell foreign currencies.

          State Administration of Foreign Exchange spokeswoman Wang Chunying said China’s economy has continued ” the overall stable, steady and progressive development trend, and the main macroeconomic indicators have remained within a reasonable range.” Also, ” cross-border capital flows have remained stable. ” Wang also dismissed claim of China as currency manipulator as groundless.

          German industrial production dropped -1.5%, 10-yr bund yield hits new record low

            Germany industrial production dropped -1.5% mom in June, (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted), worse than expectation of -0.5 mom. Production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by -1.8%. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods decreased by -2.0% and the production of capital goods by -1.8%. The production of consumer goods showed a decrease by -1.4%. Outside industry, energy production was down by -1.6% in June 2019 and the production in construction increased by 0.3%.

            Full release here.

            German 10-year bund yield drops to new record low of -0.561 today. Euro also softens mildly, but downside is so far limited.

            Bullard: Fed should wait and see before next move, not respond to each tit-for-tat

              Yesterday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, one of the most dovish policymaker, said Fed shouldn’t response to every move in trade war. He said that Fed’s shift since the beginning of the year had made monetary policy “considerably” looser already. And, he added, “I don’t think it is realistic for the Fed to respond to each threat and counter threat in a tit-for-tat trade war”.

              Bullard also said the economy is still adjusting to the looser stance. And it was appropriate to “wait and see” how upcoming economic data “roll in” before deciding the next move. He noted that “while additional policy action may be desirable, the long and variable lags in the effects of monetary policy suggest that the effects of previous actions are only now beginning to impact macroeconomic outcomes”.

              BoJ summary of opinions indicates needs to discuss pre-emptive easing

                According to Summary of Opinions of July 29-30 BoJ meeting, some policymakers were clearly concerned with risks to economic outlook. And there were calls for discussions on ideas of ramping up monetary stimulus. Some economists took that as a signal that BoJ could deploy pre-emptive easing measures as soon as at the meeting next month.

                In the summary, one member warned that “the BOJ must communicate more clearly its resolve to take additional monetary easing steps without hesitation if the momentum to achieve its price target is under threat”. And, “we must also consider in advance what steps we can take if we were to ease.”

                Another member urged to use both interest rates and forward guidance to ease policy further. But there was also voice regarding the need to “assess the benefits and demerits of various monetary easing steps”.

                Full summary of opinions here.

                RBNZ surprises with -50bps cut, NZD/USD dives through key support

                  New Zealand Dollar drops sharply after RBNZ surprised the markets by cutting OCR by -50bps to 1.00%. The central bank noted that both options of cutting by -25bps with easing bias and -50bps were discussed in the meeting. However, consensus was reached that ” larger initial monetary stimulus would best ensure the Committee continues to meet its inflation and employment objectives.”

                  There was no clear signal in the statement regarding further rate cuts. Though, in the key forecast variables table, OCR could bottom out at 0.9% in second half of 2020 before picking up again in mid-2021. It appears that even if there would be more rate cut ahead, that would only be marginal. As some economists would expect, the next cut, if delivered, would be the last one in the current easing cycle.

                  Full statement here.

                  NZD/USD drops sharply through 0.6422 low today. The development suggests resumption of whole down trend from 0.7558 (2018 high). Multiple rejections by 55 week EMA confirmed medium term bearishness. Current fall should now target 0.6102 (2015 low) next.

                  WH Kudlow said Trump would like to continue negotiations with China and make a deal

                    White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow told CNBC that despite recent intensifications in US-China tensions, “the reality is we would like to negotiate”. He reiterated that “we’re planning for the Chinese team to come here in September. Things could change with respect to the tariffs.”

                    Regarding Trump’s series of aggressive tweets against China, Kudlow said “in the course of his tweets and his conversations with the trade team, he would like to continue negotiations”. And, “He would like to make a deal. It has to be the right deal for the United States. We would much prefer a commercial transaction.”

                    Additionally, Kudlow saw clear advantage over china as tariffs burden “is falling almost 100% on China.” “The American economy is in great shape. It’s booming, there is no inflation,” Kudlow said. “We’re in terrific shape. The Chinese, regrettably, are not.”

                    EU: No-deal Brexit is not our preferred option, but current deal is best possible

                      A European Commission spokesperson said today that the bloc was still hoping to avoid no-deal Brexit. But EU is prepared for such an outcome. She noted that “a no-deal scenario is not our preferred option,” but reiterated that the current withdrawal agreement was the “best possible” one. And, “our no-deal preparedness protects the EU 27 and the interests in the case of a no-deal Brexit,”

                      She also noted that the Commission does remain available over the coming weeks should the United Kingdom wish to hold talks and clarify its position in more detail, whether by phone or in person.”

                      Earlier, The Guardian reported that no-deal Brexit is now UK government’s central scenario. An unnamed EU official was quoted saying the UK has ““no intention to negotiate, which would require a plan”.

                      Fed Daly: Trade headwind blowing in picked-up position

                        San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she is focused on U.S. and China trade tensions as a factor, regarding the next move in monetary policy. He said that trade tension is “amplified” and she’s focusing her attention” on these headwinds. She described that “sometimes the blowing slows down and sometimes it picks up, and now we’re in a picked-up position”.

                        Though, she also noted that aggressive rate cuts are not warranted for now, without evidence of a stronger economic downturn. ANd she didn’t see the economy heading into a recession.

                        PBoC: China has not and will not use exchange rate to deal with trade disputes

                          China’s PBoC said today that the country “has not used and will not use the exchange rate as a tool to deal with trade disputes”. And it “advised” the US to “rein in its horse before the precipice, and be aware of its errors, and turn back from the wrong path”.

                          Further, PBoC warned that US designation of China as currency manipulator would ratchet up currency tensions and “prevent a global economic and trade recovery.”

                          China condemns US deliberately destroying international order

                            In a strongly-worded editorial, the People’s Daily, China’s official newspaper, condemned that the US was “deliberately destroying international order”. The piece was published hours after US decision to designate China as currency manipulator, even though such issue was not mentioned. The editorial said the responsibility of big countries is to provide the world with stability and certainty. However, “some people in the United States do just the opposite”.

                            USD/CNH edged higher to 7.1399 earlier today but pulled back from there. It’s currently trading at 7.07, below yesterday’s close. There is sign that PBoC is looking at stem the free fall in Yuan. The general consensus remains that China wouldn’t want steep fall in Yuan exchange rate, which would trigger disastrous capital outflow and decline in asset prices. Instead, the Chinese government would likely prefer controlled depreciation.

                            RBA stands pat, tweaks statement towards dovish side

                              Australian Dollar recovers mildly after RBA left cash rate unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected. The accompanying statement is a tweaked a bit further to the dovish side. The central bank noted that “it is likely to take longer than earlier expected for inflation to return to 2 per cent.” Also, “it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia”. But overall, the statement doesn’t alter expectations for one more rate cut this year, probably another in the first half of next year depending on development.

                              On the economy, RBA acknowledged that growth has been “lower than earlier expected” in first half. The central scenario is for growth to be at around 2.50% over 2019 and 2.75 over 2020. Consumption remains the main domestic uncertainty. Unemployment rate is expected to “decline over the next couple of years to around 5 percent”. And RBA reiterated that “Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.” Inflation is projected to stay a “a little under” 2% over 2020 and a little above 2% over 2021.

                              Full statement here.

                              New Zealand unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, lowest since 2008

                                New Zealand employment rose 0.8% qoq in Q2, much stronger than expectation of 0.3% qoq. Unemployment rate also dropped to 3.9%, down from 4.2% and beat expectation of 4.3%. That’s also the lowest rate since June 2008.

                                Wage growth was also positive. Average ordinary time hourly earnings rose 4.4% yoy, largest jump since 2009. Private sector average ordinary time hourly earnings increased 4.7% yoy. Public  sector average ordinary time hourly earnings increased 3.5%.

                                Full release here.

                                NZD/JPY recovers after the release but upside is apparently capped by overall risk aversion in the markets. For now, some consolidations could be seen above 68.65 temporary low. But won’t expect a break of 38.2% retracement of 73.24 to 68.65 at 70.40. Break of 68.65 is expected sooner or later.

                                US Treasury determined China as currency manipulator, citing PBoC statement

                                  US Treasury Department, formally determined China as currency manipulator yesterday, for the first time since 1994, after USD/CNH surged through the psychologically important 7 handle. In the statement, US said under Section 3004 of the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988 , the Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has “determined that China is a Currency Manipulator.”And, He will “engage with the International Monetary Fund to eliminate the unfair competitive advantage created by China’s latest actions,”

                                  It’s pointed out that “the Chinese authorities have acknowledged that they have ample control over the RMB exchange rate.” In particular, US Treasury referred to PBoC statement that noted  it “has accumulated rich experience and policy tools, and will continue to innovate and enrich the control toolbox, and take necessary and targeted measures against the positive feedback behavior that may occur in the foreign exchange market.”US said “this is an open acknowledgement by the PBOC that it has extensive experience manipulating its currency and remains prepared to do so on an ongoing basis.

                                  Full statement here.

                                  US ISM non-manufacturing dropped to 53.7, lowest since Aug 2016

                                    US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite dropped to 53.7 in July, down from 55.1 and missed expectation of 55.5. That’s also the lowest reading since August 2016. Looking at some details:

                                    • Headline index dropped -1.4 to 53.7.
                                    • Business Activity index dropped -5.1 to 53.1.
                                    • New orders dropped -1.7 to 54.1.
                                    • Employment rose 1.2 to 56.2.
                                    • Prices dropped -2.4 to 56.5.

                                    The 13 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Information; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting a decrease are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; and Educational Services.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Trump accuses China of currency manipulation

                                      Trump accused China for currency manipulation today, and with the same tweet, he also urged Fed to “listen” He said “China dropped the price of their currency to an almost a historic low. It’s called ‘currency manipulation.’ Are you listening Federal Reserve? This is a major violation which will greatly weaken China over time!” But it’s unsure what “historic low” he referred to.

                                      On the other hand, China dismissed Trump’s claim that the country didn’t buy US agricultural products. A National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) was reported saying that such accusation was “groundless”. The official noted China bought 130,000 tonnes of soybeans, 120,000 tonnes of sorghum, 60,000 tonnes of wheat, 40,000 tonnes of pork and products, and 25,000 tonnes of cotton from the United States between July 19 and August 2.

                                      Also, the NDRC official also said China purchased 75,000 tonnes of hay, 5,700 tonnes of dairy products, 4,500 tonnes of processed fruits, and 400 tonnes of fresh fruits from the United States during the same period.

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                                      Eurozone Sentix dropped to -13.7, spectre of recession is going around

                                        Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped to -13.7 in August, down from -5.8 and missed expectation of -7.0. That’s also the lowest level since October 2015. Current Situation Index dropped from 1.8 to -7.3, lowest sine January 2015. Expectations Index de August 2012.

                                        Sentix warned that “the spectre of recession is going around.” It also said number of economists merely dismissed the deterioration as a “mood correction”. The current “manufacturing deterioration” is referred to as a “recession in the manufacturing sector” only, with “service sectors excluded. And it’s a “big mistake” from Sentix’s view.

                                        For Germany, Overall Index dropped from -4.8 to -13.7, lowest since August 2009. Current Situation Index dropped from 7.0 to -5.5, lowest since March 2010. Expectations Index dropped from -16.0 to -21.5, lowest since July 2012.

                                        Sentix said, “the former world champion exporter is feeling the effects of the backward roll of globalisation.” It also complained that the “entire political spectrum in Germany is discusses climate issues but “completely overlooks the fact that the economic climate is fading”.

                                        Full release here.

                                        UK PMI services rose to 51.4, 9-month high, economy stagnating at start of Q3

                                          UK PMI Services recovered to 51.4 in July, up from 50.2 and beat expectation of 50.4. That’s already the highest level since October 2018 even though rate of expansion remained subdued overall. Markit noted there was modest increase in service sector output. There was rebound in new work, helped by export sales. But business expectations eased to a four-month low.

                                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

                                          “An improved rate of growth in the service sector to the highest since October is welcome news after other PMI surveys showed the sharpest drop in manufacturing output for seven years and a construction sector that is mired in its deepest downturn for a decade. However, the overall picture is one of an economy that is only just managing to skirt recession, with July’s performance among the worst since the height of the global financial crisis in 2009.

                                          “The latest PMI numbers are indicative of the economy stagnating at the start of the third quarter after indicating a 0.1% decline in the second quarter.

                                          “Even growth in the service sector remains worryingly subdued, constrained by a marked fall in business services activity, where the rate of decline in July has been exceeded only once in the past ten years. The best performing sector was consumer services, highlighting how the economy remains dependent on consumer spending to avoid contraction.

                                          “Inflationary pressures remained muted, with average prices charged for goods and services rising at one of the weakest rates recorded over the past three years, as firms increasingly resorted to competing on price to help drive sales.”

                                          Full release here.