Wed, Jul 31, 2024 @ 08:21 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 48

Live Comments

Random

ECB Panetta: PEPP to be used in full unless there are significant upside surprises

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta warned in an interview that it’s “too soon to declare victory” on coronavirus pandemic. Recent economic data “certainly indicate that we’re making progress”, he said.

    “But we need to view these improvements with caution, because they are an effect of the rebound that was to be expected after the earlier disastrous fall in economic activity and reflect the large-scale intervention of economic policies.” “Moreover, they don’t diverge from our forecasts. So they don’t give us sufficient grounds for satisfaction.”

    He added that “economic activity is still well below pre-crisis levels”. Based on ECB’s projections “we won’t see a return to those levels before the end of 2022”. Outlook is also uncertain for the economy and jobs while growth is uneven.

    Regarding monetary policy, Panetta expects to use the resources available under the PEPP “in full” unless there are “significant upside surprises”. “The programme is working well, and I don’t see any economic reasons to change our decisions or actions.”

    Full interview here.

    UK Hammond cheers CPI, BoE May hike back on table

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      After initial post CPI selloff, GBP stabilizes a bit. But it’s still trading as the weakest major currency for today.

      Headline CPI slowed to 2.5% yoy in March, notably below expectation of 2.7% yoy. That’s also the lowest level in a year. More importantly, it’s also the first time wage growth beat inflation since January 2017. Average weekly earnings, despite meeting forecast, grew 2.8% 3moy in February, as released a day ago.

      Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond surely welcomed the data as he tweeted:

      Twitter

      By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
      Learn more

      Load tweet

      But the data is certainly not that welcomed by BoE hawks like Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders. They comments will be closely watched to see if they back down from their hawkish stance.

      It should be noted that BoE’s February projections were based on market pricing that Bank Rate will rise to 0.7% by 2018 year end. And by 2019 Q1, CPI inflation would drop to 2.3%. Inflation is now already in a clear down trend, diving from 3% in January to 2.5% in March. With Bank Rate staying unchanged at 0.50%. There is much room for BoE to wait through at least another quarter to see how things play out.

      November rate decision is now closer to certain, “no”. And May hike is back on the table.

      FOMC Minutes: Slope of yield curve to be monitored

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        The minutes of the June FOMC meeting provided little inspirations to the markets overnight. It’s noted that job gains had been strong, unemployment rate hade decline, growth of household spending had picked up, business fixed investment continued to grow strongly, headline and core inflation have moved close to 2%, long term-inflation expectations were little changed. “Members viewed the recent data as consistent with a strong economy that was evolving about as they had expected.”

        Flattening of the yield curve was a topic discussed during the meeting as that “might signal about economic activity going forward”. A numbers of factors were brought forward, including “reduction in investors’ estimates of the longer-run neutral real interest rate; lower longer-term inflation expectations; or a lower level of term premiums in recent years relative to historical experience reflecting, in part, central bank asset purchases.” And that could ” temper the reliability of the slope of the yield curve as an indicator of future economic activity.” A number of the meeting participants said that “it would be important to continue to monitor the slope of the yield curve.”

        The minutes also noted that escalating trade tensions have already started hurting investments. The minutes pointed out that “many district contacts expressed concern about the possible adverse effects of tariffs and other proposed trade restrictions, both domestically and abroad, on future investment activity.” And, “contacts in some districts indicated that plans for capital spending had been scaled back or postponed as a result of uncertainty over trade policy.” And, most policymakers noted that “uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified and were concerned that such uncertainty and risks eventually could have negative effects”.

        UK GDP contracts -0.1% mom, production a main contributor

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          UK GDP contracted by -0.1% mom in May, slightly better than expectation of -0.3% mom contraction. However, taking a wider view, GDP showed stagnation over the three months to May. The contraction in May was largely due to a decrease in production output by -0.6% mom, contributing significantly to the overall GDP decline. In contrast, services output remained stagnant while construction output dipped by -0.2% mom.

          ONS shed light on the situation, attributing part of the contraction to additional bank holiday for King Charles III’s coronation on 8th May, which impacted a variety of manufacturing industries and construction businesses. On the brighter side, arts, entertainment, and recreation sector reported benefiting from the extra bank holiday.

          The ONS report also highlighted that sectors such as health (specifically nursing), rail network, education, and civil service all saw industrial action take place in May 2023. Such strikes played a part in the month’s economic movements.

          Full UK GDP release here.

          Also released, industrial production came in at -0.6% mom, -2.3% yoy, versus expectation of -0.4% mom, -2.3% yoy. Manufacturing production was at -0.2% mom, -1.2% yoy, versus expectation of -0.5% mom, -1.7% yoy. Goods trade deficit widened from GBP -14.6B to GBP -18.7B, larger than expectation of GBP -14.6B.

          Uncertain if US-China trade deal phase 1 would be completed this year

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            The status of US-China trade agreement phase-one is back into question with recent comments. It’s even unsure if the negotiations could be completed within this year. December 15 is the next key date, when tariffs on around USD 156B of Chinese goods are scheduled to take effect.

            According to a Bloomberg report, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said at a dinner Wednesday night that he was “cautiously optimistic”. Zhang Yansheng, the principal researcher of China Center for International Economic Exchanges said today that the phase-one could be reached this year is there is “no disturbance”. he added, “The optimistic view is that the phase-one deal can be reached within this year, and a more pessimistic one is that the first phase will be dragged to some point next year.” But Hu Xijin, the editor of the state-backed Chinese tabloid Global Times, warned “few Chinese believe that China and the US can reach a deal soon.” He added, “China wants a deal but is prepared for the worst-case scenario, a prolonged trade war.”

            On the US side, President Donald Trump complained to reporters in Texas that “I don’t think they’re stepping up to the level that I want.” White House spokesman Judd Deere said “negotiations are continuing and progress is being made on the text of the phase-one agreement”, without further elaboration.

            Mnuchin blames WSJ and Bloomberg on fake news

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin blamed WSJ and Bloomberg on “fake news”. That’s regarding the report on Trump’s intention to limit Chinese investments in US tech companies. Mnuchin said in his tweet that a statement will be out “not specific to China, but to all countries that are trying to steal out technology”.

              Twitter

              By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
              Learn more

              Load tweet

              First of all, who else is “stealing” other than China?

              Secondly, definition from Oxford dictionary on the verb “steal” – Take (another person’s property) without permission or legal right and without intending to return it.

              When some buy a company, is the property of the company “another person’s property”?

              Or now, you forbid them to buy the company, so that they have to “steal”?

              Anyway we don’t expect anything more than that from Trump and his team.

              Canada retail sales rose 0.1% mom in Feb, to rise 1.4% in Mar

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                Canada retail sales rose 0.1% mom to CAD 59.9B in February, better than expectation of -0.5% mom decline. That’s the fourth increase in the last five months. Higher sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores (+15.1%) and gasoline stations (+6.2%) were offset by lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (-5.1%).

                Sales were up in 6 of the 11 subsectors, representing 47.2% of retail trade. Core retail sales—which exclude sales at gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers—increased 1.4%.

                According to advance estimate, sales increased 1.4% mom in March.

                Full release here.

                US NFP grew 128k, unemployment rate edged higher to 3.6%

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  US non-farm payroll report showed 128k growth in October, above expectation of 105k. Prior month’s figure was revised sharply higher from 136k to 180k. Job growth has averaged 167k per month thus far in 2019, compared with an average monthly gain of 223k in 2018. Unemployment edged higher to 3.6%, from 3.5%, matched expectations. Participation rate was little changed at 63.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom in October, below expectation of 0.3% mom.

                  Full release here.

                  Japan automakers slam Trump’s tariffs as Abe kept silence

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been so far very quiet regarding trade tensions with the US. Abe and his cabinet members have repeatedly said that they do not want bilateral trade agreements. But Trump is insisting to force Japan into it. And that’s not to mention that Japan was the only close ally that was not even given a temporary exemption on the steel and aluminum tariffs. It’s even unsure what retaliation they’ll take. The meeting between Abe and Trump ahead of G6+1 submit also produced no progress on trade.

                    But back in his homeland, Abe is facing increasing pressure on him to take a stance. The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association issued a statement today slamming the US probe of automobile imports using national security as excuse again. In the statement, JAMA expressed “gravely concerned” of the investigation. It emphasized that “automobiles are sold to consumers on the basis of their own choices, and it is consumers themselves who would be penalized, through increased vehicle prices and reduced model options”. Additionally, “business plans of automobile and auto parts manufacturers as well as imported vehicle dealers could be seriously disrupted, with potentially adverse impacts on the U.S. economy and jobs.”

                    JAMA also pointed to “facts” that their member companies operate “24 manufacturing plants and 44 R&D/design centers in 19 U.S. states and in 2017, nearly 3.8 million vehicles were produced by American workers at those facilities.” “Of that total, over 420,000 units were exported to countries around the world, further underscoring our contributions to employment and economic growth in the United States.”

                    JAMA concluded that “free and fair trade and a competitive climate in line with global rules benefit consumers in the United States and strengthen the sustainable growth of the U.S. auto industry and its economy. We will continue to monitor this situation closely and to uphold the vital importance of free trade worldwide.”

                    Full statement here.

                    ECB Panetta: Ready to adjust monetary instruments if downside risks materialize

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said “we can guarantee our commitment to support the recovery. For monetary policy, this means providing certainty about financing conditions well into the future. The PEPP envelope can be further expanded and extended, if warranted.”

                      “We stand ready to adjust all our instruments if downside risks to the outlook materialise, including those stemming from exchange rate dynamics,” he added. “An appreciation of the euro could significantly affect euro area inflation. There should be no doubt here: the ECB will not accept inflation settling at levels that are inconsistent with its aim.”

                      BoJ Uchida: Monetary easing to continue to nurture firms’ changing pricing strategies

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida highlighted in a speech today an emerging trend in firms’ pricing strategies, noting that “firms are developing more forward-looking strategies for setting prices.” According to Uchida, these changes “might be the chance to finally change Japan’s economy.” Hence, he emphasized BoJ will “patiently continue with monetary easing to carefully nurture these signs.”

                        Uchida was explicit in outlining the Bank’s monetary policy stances. Firstly, he ruled out near-term adjustments to short-term interest rate, currently at -0.10%, stating “there is still a long way to go before such decisions are made.”

                        Secondly, BoJ will “maintain the current framework” until sustainable and stable achievement of 2% inflation target “come in sight”.

                        Thirdly, Uchida affirmed the ongoing yield curve control under the present policy framework, aiming to balance its benefits and drawbacks, especially in relation to financial intermediation and the market.

                        Despite the high economic and price outlook uncertainty, Uchida stated the recent yield curve control modification, allowing the 10-year JGB yield to rise to up to 1%, is aimed at sustaining the ultra-loose policy. “Needless to say, we do not have an exit from monetary easing in mind,” he emphasized.

                        UK PMI services rose to 50.4, marginal expansion only

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          UK PMI services rose to 50.4 in April, up from 48.9 and matched expectations. March’s reading was a 32-month low. Markit noted marginal rise in service sector business activity. New work dips for the fourth month in a row. Input cost inflation accelerates to its highest since January.

                          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

                          “A near-stagnant service sector in April means that all three major parts of the economy were struggling to grow in April. Although the service sector joined construction in reporting a return to growth, in both cases the expansions were only marginal. An upturn in manufacturing is meanwhile showing signs of waning, as a temporary boost from Brexit-related stockpiling faded in April.

                          “The resulting rise in business activity signalled collectively by April’s PMI surveys was only marginal, suggesting the economy remained more or less stalled at the start of the second quarter.

                          “The disappointing start to the second quarter follows a first quarter in which the average PMI reading was the lowest since late 2012 and indicative of the economy flat-lining.

                          “Although business grew more optimistic about the outlook, linked in part to more favourable prospects amid the reduced threat of an imminent ‘no deal’ Brexit, forward-looking indicators such as order books and backlogs of work hint at a near-term sustained weakness of demand, which has already filtered through to a reduction of employment.

                          “Both GDP and labour market numbers could therefore disappoint in coming months, as the weakness of the survey data feeds through to official data.”

                          Full release here.

                          BoE Bailey: Not enough finance has gone through to small firms

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview with Daily Mail that there are a number of “bottleneck” in the system, so that not enough finance has gone through to small firms in the coronavirus crisis. Only around GBP 2B has been lent to companies under the Covid Business Interruption Loan scheme.

                            He noted it’s hard for banks to deal with a huge surge in loan demands, at a time when their staff are having health struggles. It’s also difficult to assess the risk with the loans to small firms. Bailey added, “this gums up the operational side. It is clearly not satisfactory and [the system] clearly needs to be un-gummed. I gee up the banks regularly. The Chancellor and I are both extremely keen that credit flows to firms.”

                            Regarding lockdown exit, “I think we have to be careful when thinking about human psychology,’ he said. ‘If we had a lifting and then [lockdown] came back again, I think that would damage people’s confidence very severely.”

                            BoJ Kuroda: Japan isn’t heading toward deflation

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament that there is no need to “overhaul our projections” despite resurgence of coronavirus infections globally. The central bank forecasts the economy to contract -5.5% in the fiscal year ending March 2021, then expand 3.6% in the following year.

                              “Our view is that Japan isn’t heading toward deflation, though we’re watching developments in service consumption and capital expenditure carefully,” he added.

                              Kuroda also said, “there is no need now to review our policy framework. But there could be debate at an appropriate timing in the future.”

                              US initial jobless claims dropped to 214k, continuing claims dropped to 1.419m

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                US initial jobless claims dropped -15k to 214k in the week ending March 12, better than expectation of 221k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -9k to 223k.

                                Continuing claims dropped -71k to 1419k in the week ending March 5, lowest since February 21, 1970. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -42.5k to 1463k, lowest since March 21, 1970.

                                Full release here.

                                Germany PMI composite rose to 47.1, milder recession but inflation remains high

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  Germany’s November PMI data indicates a modest improvement in its economic situation, albeit still within recessionary bounds. Manufacturing PMI rose from 40.8 to 42.3, marking a six-month high, and Services PMI increased from 48.2 to 48.7. Composite PMI, climbed from 45.9 to a four-month high of 47.1.

                                  Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted a cautious optimism about the German economy. He observed, “Despite remaining in recession territory, the rate of slowdown has eased noticeably.”

                                  While, the PMI data aligns with the perspective that Germany entered a recession in the third quarter of this year, the recession’s depth might be less severe than initially anticipated. According to de la Rubia’s nowcasting model, GDP is expected to see -0.7% decline in Q4, an improvement from previous forecasts of -0.9% decline.

                                  Despite these signs of economic easing, inflation remains a significant challenge. De la Rubia pointed out the persistence of inflation, especially in the service sector where input prices surged in November, largely due to increasing wages.

                                  This inflationary pressure is partly transferred to consumers as service sector output prices continue to rise at high rates. The likelihood of sustained inflation is further supported by recent labor market trends, including increased strike activities and significant wage agreements.

                                  Full Germany PMI release here.

                                  Eurozone Sentix improved to -25.2, but recession still very likely

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved slightly from -26.4 to -25.2 in August, better than expectation of -26.3. Current Situation index ticked up from -16.5 to -16.3. Expectations index also edged up from -35.8 to -33.8.

                                    However, Germany Investor Confidence dropped from -24.2 to -24.4, lowest since May 2020. Current Situation index dropped from -13.0 to -14.8, lowest since February 2021. Expectations index, on the other hand, ticked up from -34.8 to -33.5.

                                    Sentix said, the improvement in Eurozone “does not mean that the all-clear has been given”. And, “a recession in the Eurozone is still very likely.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    US durable goods orders rose 3.4% in Jan, ex-transport orders rose 1.4%

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      US durable goods orders rose 3.4% mom to USD 256.6B in January, above expectation of 1.1% mom. That’s the ninth straight month of growth. Ex-transport orders rose to 1.4% mom, above expectation of 0.7% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 2.3% mom. Transportation rose 7.8% to USD 85.1B.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Eurozone CPI accelerated to 5.0% yoy in Dec, another record

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        Eurozone inflation accelerated from 4.9% to 5.0% in December, above expectation of 4.7% yoy. That’s another record print since record began in 1991. CPI core was unchanged at 2.6% yoy, above expectation of 2.3% yoy.

                                        Energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in December (26.0%, compared with 27.5% in November), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (3.2%, compared with 2.2% in November), non-energy industrial goods (2.9%, compared with 2.4% in November) and services (2.4%, compared with 2.7% in November).

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoJ stands pat, continue to closely monitor impacts of pandemic

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged today as widely expected. Under the yield curve control framework, short-term policy interest rate is held at -0.1%. 10-year JGB yield target is kept at around 0%. The central bank will continue to purchase ETFs and J-REITS with upper limits of about JPY 12T and JPY 180B respectively. CP and Corporate bonds purchases will continue with upper limit of JPY 20Y until the end of September 2021.

                                          BOJ also pledged to continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control “as long as it is necessary” and “continue expanding the monetary base” until core CPI exceeds 2% target in a “stable manner”. It will also “closely monitor” of the impact of COVID-19 and “will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary”.

                                          Full statement here.

                                          1...474849...682Page 48 of 682

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.