WH Kudlow: Still planning for Chinese trade team to come in September

    White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said yesterday that there was “quite constructive” telephone conversations at deputy level between US and China and trade. The deputies have agreed to set up another conference call and were working through some of the key issues.

    Kudow added “we are still planning for the Chinese team to come over here in September.”

    On the economy, Kudlow dismissed the concerns of a downturn. Instead, he said “we don’t anticipate anything but a solid strong economy.”

    Italian President Mattarella gave parties till Tuesday to form new coalition

      Italian President Sergio Mattarella completed two days of talks with parties in search for a solution for the political turmoil. He told reports that dissolving parliament just 17 months after last election shouldn’t be a decision that’s taken lightly. Some parties are trying to form a solid majority for coalition. Mattarella requested the parties, without naming them, to report back on Tuesday for two more days of talks.

      It’s known that the 5-Star Movement is trying to form a coalition with center-left Democratic Party. Speaking to reporters after his meeting with the president, 5-Star leader Luigi Di Maio said “in recent hours, all the necessary contacts have been launched to find a solid majority”. Additionally, Di Maio had handed Mattarella a list of 10 reforms that he wanted to see completed before parliament was dissolved.

      Fed Harker said “no, not right now” for another rate cut

        Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker told CNBC “No. Not right now”, when asked if he sees a case for further rate cut. He explained, “the labor markets are strong, inflation is moving up slowly — but with the last CPI print, it was a good print,”

        On the current interest rate, he said: “We’re roughly where neutral is. It’s hard to know exactly where neutral is, but I think we’re roughly where neutral is right now. And I think we should stay here for a while and see how things play out.”

        US PMI manufacturing dropped to 119-month low, contractionary at 49.9

          US PMI Manufacturing dropped to 49.9 in August, down from 50.4 and missed expectation of 50.5. That’s the lowest level in 119 months. PMI Services dropped to 50.9, down from 53.0 and missed expectation of 52.8. PMI Composite dropped to 50.9, down from 52.6.

          Commenting on the flash PMI data, Tim Moore, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit said:

          “August’s survey data provides a clear signal that economic growth has continued to soften in the third quarter. The PMIs for manufacturing and services remain much weaker than at the beginning of 2019 and collectively point to annualized GDP growth of around 1.5%.

          “The most concerning aspect of the latest data is a slowdown in new business growth to its weakest in a decade, driven by a sharp loss of momentum across the service sector. Survey respondents commented on a headwind from subdued corporate spending as softer growth expectations at home and internationally encouraged tighter budget setting.

          “Manufacturing companies continued to feel the impact of slowing global economic conditions, with new export sales falling at the fastest pace since August 2009.

          “Business expectations for the year ahead became more gloomy in August and remain the lowest since comparable data were first available in 2012. The continued slide in corporate growth projections suggests that firms may exert greater caution in relation to spending, investment and staff hiring during the coming months.”

          Full release here.

          German Merkel said Irish backstop solution could be achieved by Oct 31

            Sterling is given a lift after German Chancellor Angela Merkel hinted that the Irish border solution could be achieved within 30 days to avoid no-deal Brexit.

            Merkel denied that she’s set a 30-day deadline for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to find a solution to remove the Irish backstop from the withdrawal agreement.

            Though, she clarified that what one can achieve in three or two years can also be achieved in 30 days. Better said, one must say that one can also achieve it by October 31.”

            US initial jobless claims dropped to 209k, vs exp. 217k

              US initial jobless claims dropped -12k to 209k in the week ending August 17, below expectation of 217k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 0.5k to 214.5k.

              Continuing claims dropped -54k to 1.674m in the week ending August 10. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -0.75k to 1.697m.

              Full release here.

              ECB accounts: Policy package more effective than a sequence of selective actions

                Accounts of the July 24-25 ECB policy meeting showed that members “broadly supported the reintroduction of an easing bias” to the forward guidance. That came in light of “weakness of the economic outlook and the muted inflation developments”.

                For further easing, “the view was expressed that the various options should be seen as a package, i.e. a combination of instruments with significant complementarities and synergies”. That’s because “experience had shown that a policy package – such as the combination of rate cuts and asset purchases – was more effective than a sequence of selective actions.”

                Full meeting accounts here.

                French Macron to Johnson: UK’s Destiny is Your Choice Alone

                  French President Emmanuel Macron told UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, alongside him, that there was not enough time to negotiate a new Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. And, it’s for Johnson alone to choose the UK’s destiny. Macron added that EU is ready for a no-deal Brexit scenario even though it’s not the bloc’s wish. And, Irish backstop was not just a technical mechanism but a guarantor of stability.

                  On the other hand, Johnson said he wanted to make sure works are done on both sides of the Channel to make smooth Brexit, with, or without an agreement. And that’s as ” smooth and pain-free as possible for citizens and businesses on both sides.”

                  German Chancellor Angela Merkel challenged Johnson to come up with alternatives to the Irish backstop within 30 days, which Johnson accepted. So, focus in the upcoming weeks will be on UK’s response.

                  Fed George: July’s rate cut wasn’t required, policy at equilibrium now

                    Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who dissented the rate cut at July FOMC meeting, repeated her stance that the rate cut “wasn’t required”. She told CNBC that “with this very low unemployment rate, with wages rising, with the inflation rate staying close to the Fed’s target, I think we’re in a good place relative to the mandates that we’re asked to achieve.”

                    Though, she admitted that risks are tilted to the downside. She noted, “as you look at global growth weakening and as you look at the amount of uncertainty associated with some of these trade issues, I think both of those are weighing on the outlook. Whether they spill over in a way that we see in the real economy is what I’m watching for.”

                    Separately, she told Bloomberg TV that “We’re at a sort of equilibrium right now and I’d be happy to leave rates here absent seeing either some weakness or some strengthening, some kind of upside risk that would cause me to think rates should be somewhere else.”

                    Eurozone PMIs: Dynamics little changed, indicate 0.1-0.2% GDP growth in Q3

                      Eurozone PMI Manufacturing rose to 47.0 in August, up from 46.5 and beat expectation of 46.2. PMI |Services rose to 53.4, up from 53.2 and beat expectation of 53.0. PMI Composite rose to 51.8, up fro 51.5.

                      Commenting on the flash PMI data, Andrew Harker, Associate Director at IHS Markit said:

                      “The dynamics of the eurozone economy were little changed in August, with solid growth in services continuing to hold the wider economy’s head above water despite ongoing manufacturing decline. While the rate of overall expansion ticked up, we’re still looking at GDP only rising by between 0.1% and 0.2%, based on the PMI data for the third quarter so far.

                      “The lack of a quick rebound from the recent economic slowdown has impacted firms’ confidence, with sentiment the lowest in over six years. It appears that companies are braced for a sustained period of weakness, and as a result are showing greater reluctance to take on additional staff.

                      “France was a relative bright spot in August, seeing manufacturing return to growth alongside a further solid expansion of services activity. The same can’t be said for Germany, however, where new orders fell to the greatest extent in over six years and firms were pessimistic around the future path for activity. The risk remains, therefore, that the euro area’s largest economy will have fallen into technical recession in the third quarter.”

                      Full release here.

                      German PMIs: Two-speed economy, threat of GDP contraction in Q3 remains

                        Germany PMI Manufacturing rose slightly to 43.6 in August, up from 43.2 and beat expectation of 43.0. PMI Services dropped to 54.4, down from 54.5, but beat expectation of 54.0. It’s nevertheless a 7-month low. PMI Composite improved to 51.4, up from 50.9.

                        Commenting on the flash PMI data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said:

                        “Germany remains a two-speed economy, with ongoing growth of services just about compensating for the sustained weakness in manufacturing. Although improving slightly, the survey’s output data haven’t changed enough to dispel the threat of another slight contraction in GDP in the third quarter, especially given the deterioration in the forward-looking indicators.

                        “The headline services business activity index has come down a touch but remains indicative of a robust pace of output growth in that sector. However, cracks are starting to appear elsewhere in the services data, with inflows of new work barely rising in August and business confidence at its lowest for almost five years. Manufacturing expectations have also taken a turn for the worse, and are now at a record low.

                        “The sustained weakness in demand continues to filter through to the jobs market. Employment growth has now almost stalled, reflecting falling capacity pressures and lower business confidence generally.”

                        Full release here.

                        France PMI composite rose to 52.7, outperformance likely to continue in Q3

                          France PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.0 in August, up from 49.7 and beat expectation of 49.5, back in expansionary region. PMI Services rose to 53.3, up from 52.6 and beat expectation of 52.5. It’s also a 9-month high. PMI Composite Rose to 52.7, up from 51.9.

                          Commenting on the Flash PMI data, Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said:

                          “French private sector businesses posted another solid increase in output during August. Service sector expansion continued to surpass manufacturing growth, reflecting the broader trend seen across the eurozone in recent months.

                          “However, in contrast to its peers, economic growth in France has remained solid and the latest set of PMI figures only add weight to the argument that this outperformance is likely to continue in the third quarter.”

                          Full release here.

                          Australia PMI shift back into contraction, not immune to global risks

                            In August, Australia CBA PMI Manufacturing dropped from 51.6 to 51.3. CBA PMI Services dropped from 52.3 to 49.2. PMI Output dropped from 52.1 to 49.5. The set of data signalled the first reduction in output since March, centering on the service sector. CBA noted that “currency weakness led to a faster rise in manufacturing input prices, but services costs increased at a weaker pace, as did output prices across both monitored sectors.”

                            Commenting on the Commonwealth Bank Flash PMI data, CBA Chief Economist, Michael Blythe said:

                            “A persistent concern is that the fallout from the US-China trade war will dent global capex and consumer spending as cautious businesses and households retreat to the sidelines. The shift back into contractionary territory in the CBA Flash PMI reading for August indicates that Australia is not immune to these global risks. The concerns about weak output readings are tempered a little by positive indications on the labour market and future business expectations.”

                            “The challenges faced by the RBA in their attempts to return inflation to the 2-3% target band are also highlighted in the survey. The lower Aussie dollar is putting upward pressure on input prices. But the competitive trading environment is limiting the flow through to output prices.”

                            Full release here.

                            Japan PMIs: Plenty of promise, fears allayed for now

                              Japan PMI Manufacturing rose 0.1 to 49.5 in August. PMI Services rose 1.6 to 53.4. PMI Composite rose 1.1 to 51.7.

                              Joe Hayes, Economists at IHS Markit noted: “Preliminary August PMI data give plenty of promise that the solid growth trend seen in the GDP outturns so far this year could indeed stretch into the third quarter, providing a timely boost before the fourth quarter, which is likely to be adversely impacted by the consequences of sales tax hike”.

                              “The driving force behind this remains the service sector, which is lifted by resilient demand within the domestic economy. Flash data showed services activity growing at the fastest rate in almost two years in August, allaying fears, at least for the time being, that strong external headwinds being felt within manufacturing could spread to other parts of the economy.”

                              Full release here.

                              Japan Motegi: Gaps to be filled in US trade talks

                                Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi met US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on trade in Washington yesterday. After the meeting, he noted that talks have been “narrowed down quite a bit”, discussions are “deepening”. But there are still “gaps” to be filled.

                                Motegi said: “Issues that need to be sorted out in ministerial-level talks have been narrowed down quite a bit… We agreed to speed up discussions and work on the remaining issues for an early achievement of results… Discussions are undoubtedly deepening. But there are still gaps that need to be filled.”

                                Discussions will continue today after working level talks between the two sides. The teams are aiming to lay the groundwork for a possible meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US President Donald Trump, to be held on the sidelines of this weekend’s G7 summit in France.

                                FOMC minutes reaffirmed rate cut as mid-cycle adjustment

                                  The Minutes of July FOMC meeting showed that most members viewed the -25bps rate cut as “mid-cycle adjustment”, in response to the evolution of the economic outlook. That was in-line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post meeting message that it’s not the start of a lengthy easing cycle. For any future adjustments, FOMC would “assess realized and expected economic conditions”, taking into account a wide range of information, including labor market, inflation, financial and international developments.

                                  For those who voted for the cut, they sought to be “better position” the policy to counter effects from weak global growth and trade policy uncertainty, “insure” from downside risks and “promote” faster return of inflation to target. For the two dissenters, they noted larger positive economic data and anticipated “continued strong labor markets and solid growth in activity”.

                                  Full minutes here.

                                   

                                  US CBO expects tariffs to lower GDP growth by 0.3% by 2020

                                    US Congressional Budget Office projected the economy to grow 2.3% in 2019, unchanged from January forecasts. Growth is expected to gradually slow from 2020 to 2023, averaging 1.8% per year.

                                    The slowdown ahead would be because growth of consumer spending subsides; as growth in purchases by federal, state, and local governments ebbs; and as trade policies weigh on economic activity, particularly business investment.

                                    Additionally, “higher trade barriers—in particular, increases in tariffs—implemented by the United States and other countries since January 2018 are expected to make U.S. GDP about 0.3 percent smaller than it would have been otherwise by 2020.”

                                    CBO further explained that “Tariffs reduce domestic GDP mostly by raising domestic prices, thereby reducing the purchasing power of consumers and increasing the cost of business investment. Tariffs also affect business investment by increasing businesses’ uncertainty about future barriers to trade and thus their perceptions of risks associated with investment in the United States and abroad.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    US oil inventory dropped -2.7m barrels, WTI range bound

                                      U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by -2.7m barrels in the week ending August 16, larger than expectation of -1.4m barrels. At 437.8m barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% above the five year average for this time of year.

                                      WTI staying in sideway pattern from 50.64. After multiple attempts, WTI is still unable to sustain above 55 day EMA so far. Further decline remains in favor. Sustained break of 50.64 could pave the way back to 42.05 low. Nevertheless, sustained trading above the EMA will put focus back to 60.93 resistance.

                                      Canadian Dollar rebounds as headline CPI rose 0.5% mom, 2.0% yoy

                                        Canadian Dollar rebounds notably after stronger than expected inflation data. CPI rose 0.5% mom in July versus expectation of 0.2% mom. Annually, CPI was unchanged at 2.0% yoy, above expectation of 1.7% yoy. CPI core-common rose to 1.9% yoy, up from 1.8% yoy and beat expectation of 1.8% yoy. CPI core-median slowed to 2.1% yoy, down from 2.2% yoy, matched expectations. CPI core-trim was unchanged at 2.1% yoy, above expectation of 2.0% yoy.

                                        Full release here.

                                        USD/CAD dips notably after the release. But it’s, after all, staying in consolidation from 1.3345. And, as long as 1.317 minor support holds, further rally through 1.3345 resistance is expected at a later stage.

                                        Kashkari: Fed should use forward guidance now to avoid recession

                                          In an op-ed article published in the Financial Times, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Fed should use forward guidance now to stimulate the economy. He explained that “forward guidance can also provide stimulus by signalling that overnight rates will be low in the future.” That is, Fed can “influence long-term rates by giving guidance about the future path of their short-term equivalents. The firmer the Fed’s commitment, the more influence it can have.”

                                          Kashkari added that “forward guidance should be used now, before the federal funds rate returns to zero.” He argued that “if a central bank cuts rates to zero in response to a downturn and then announces that it plans to keep rates low, that can actually be perceived as a sign of weakness rather than strength.” Instead, “it would be better to deploy guidance now in an effort to avoid hitting zero.

                                          Regarding the guidance, he said “at a minimum, we should commit to not raising rates again until core inflation returns to our 2 per cent target on a sustained basis.”