UK Johnson pledges no further Brexit delay after another Commons defeat

    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered his sixth consecutive defeat at the Commons yesterday. His second call for snap election was also rejected as widely expected. The Commons is now suspended for five weeks.

    At the same time, Johnson pledged after the vote that “this government will press on with negotiating a deal, while preparing to leave without one,” referring to Brexit. And, “I will go to that crucial summit in Brussels on Oct. 17, and no matter how many devices this Parliament invents to tie my hands, I will strive to get an agreement in the national interest.”

    Johnson also insisted “this government will not delay Brexit any further.” That even the Parliament has passed a law that requires Johnson to seek Brexit delay from October 31 if he couldn’t get a deal.

    New York Fed: One year inflation expectations dropped to 2.4%, series low

      New York Fed’s August consumer expectations survey showed that median inflation expectations at one-year horizon dropped -0.2% to 2.4%, hitting a new series low. Inflation expectations at three-year horizon dropped -0.1% to 2.5%.

      On labor wages, median one-year ahead expected earnings growth fell -0.1% to 2.3% in August, below the 12-month trailing average of 2.5%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased for the second consecutive month from 13.8% in July to 14.2% in August.

      Full release here.

      Germany said to consider fiscal stimulus, Euro and yield lifted

        Euro is given a mild lift on news that Germany is considering fiscal stimulus to boost the economy. The government is said to be considering to create a “shadow budget”. With that public investment beyond constitutional restrictions could be limited. Additionally, there is another idea of setting up independent public entities to take on debt to increase infrastructure investment and climate protections.

        German 10-year yield is up notably by 0.062 at -0.571 at the time of writing. It hit record low of -0.739 earlier this month.

        NIESR expects UK economy to return to growth, but unsure for how long

          The NIESR said in a report that UK economy is on course to grow 0.3% in Q3, rebounding from Q2’s -0.2% contraction. NIESR said it’s a “welcome resumption of economic growth”. However, it also warned that “it is not clear how long growth will continue.”.

          NIESR added, “Only the services sector is expanding, primarily to meet higher demand from consumers driven by increased household incomes fuelled by rising real wages. But there is a limit to how much further real wages can grow without a pick-up in investment and productivity, and this seems unlikely in the near term.”

          Full report here.

          Bank of Franc MIBA indicates 0.3% GDP growth in Q3

            According to its monthly index of business activity (MIBA), Bank of Franc said GDP is expected to grow 0.3% in Q3. Manufacturing indicator rose from 96 to 99 as industrial production gained ground. Services indicator was unchanged at 100, picked up slightly. Construction indicator was unchanged at 104 as activity was almost stable in August in both structural and finishing works.

            Full report here.

            UK parliament to be suspended after today’s businesses

              UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s call for general election today will very much likely fail. Labour already indicated in a statement that they “would not support Boris Johnson’s ploy to deny the people their decision by crashing us out of the EU with No Deal during a general election campaign”. Meanwhile, Johnson’s spokesperson James Slack has confirmed that Parliament will be suspended once today’s business has been completed.

              Separately, Johnson said in Ireland, alongside Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar that he wants to “find a deal” and “get a deal” on Brexit. And, “for the sake of business, for farmers, and millions of ordinary people who are counting on us to use our imagination and creativity to get this done. I want you to know I would overwhelmingly prefer to find an agreement.”

              Varadkar, on the other hand, said “in the absence of agreed alternative arrangements, no backstop is no deal for us… We are open to alternatives, but they must realistic ones, legally binding and workable and we haven’t received such proposals to date.”

              UK GDP grew 0.3% in July, but flat in the three months

                UK GDP grew 0.3% mom in July, well above expectation of 0.1% mom. However, for the three months to July, GDP was flat, following -0.2% from April to June. Looking at the details for the three months to July, Index of services rose 0.13%. Index of production dropped -0.07%. Index of construction dropped -0.05%.

                Head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said: “GDP growth was flat in the latest three months, with falls in construction and manufacturing. While the largest part of the economy, services sector, returned to growth in the month of July, the underlying picture shows services growth weakening through 2019. The trade deficit narrowed due to falling imports, particularly unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), chemicals and road vehicles in the three months to July.”

                 

                Also from UK, industrial production came in at 0.1% mom, -0.9% yoy in July versus expectation f0.0% mom, -1.0% yoy. Manufacturing production was at 0.3% mom, -0.6% yoy versus expectation of 0.0% mom, -1.0% yoy. Visible trade deficit widened slightly to GBP-9.1B, smaller than expectation of -9.6B.

                Eurozone Sentix investor confidence improved to -11.1, but economy not far from recession

                  Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved to -11.1 in September, up from -13.7 and beat expectation of -16.0. Expectations Index improved notably from -20.0 to -12.8. However, Current Situation Index declined for the fourth month in a row, from -7.3 to -9.5, hitting the lowest level since January 2015.

                  The Current Situation Index shows that “Eurozone is not far from a recession”, as noted by Sentix, as they expected a recession from -10 points. Sentix added: “It is also questionable whether a recession can be avoided. For even if the expected values have improved significantly to -12.8 points, they still bear a negative sign. A sustained turnaround would require positive expectations.”

                  Sentix also said, “Investors are focusing on two issues here: firstly, the trade dispute between the USA and China. After the bad experiences with US President Trump’s tweets, however, hardly anyone is prepared to make an advance payment here. What remains is the ECB, from which investors expect real wonders at the forthcoming meeting. The sentix barometer for central bank policy is +30 points. So, the expectations of Mario Draghi to deliver something big and effective are high. We’ll see if he can deliver. For the financial markets, but even more for the real economy.”

                  Full release here.

                  Japan Q2 GDP finalized at 0.3% qoq, private consumption driven

                    Japan Q2 GDP growth was finalized at 0.3% qoq, revised down from 0.4% qoq. The economy grew at annualized pace of 1.3%, sharply lower than preliminary reading of 1.8%. GDP deflator was finalized at 0.4% yoy, unrevised.

                    Growth was primarily driven by consumer spending, which grew 0.6% qoq. While continued growth in private consumption is expected ahead, it could take a hit from the planned sales tax hike in October.

                    Meanwhile, business investment was weak and just grew 0.2% qoq. Considering global slowdown and uncertainties from trade tensions, business investment has already shown some resilience. Yet, as US-China trade war intensified in Q3, there is more headwind for businesses for the rest of the year.

                    Also from Japan, current account surplus narrowed to JPY 1.65T in July, slightly below expectation of JPY 1.70T.

                    Canada employment rose 81.1k, well above expectations

                      Canada employment jumped 81,1k in August, well above expectation of 12.5k. The bulk of the employment increase was in Ontario and Quebec. There were also smaller gains in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick. Employment held steady in the other provinces. There were more people employed in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing; educational services; and in professional, scientific and technical services. In contrast, employment declined in business, building and other support services. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.7%, matched expectations.

                      Full release here.

                      NFP grew just 130k, unemployment rate at 3.7%, but wage growth accelerated

                        US non-farm payroll report showed only 130k employment growth in August, below expectation of 162k. Prior month’s figure was also revised down from 164k to 159k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, matched expectations. Participation rate edged up to 64.2%. However, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Dollar is slightly lower after the release as weak headline number was offset by strong wage growth.

                        Full release here.

                        Eurozone Q2 GDP growth finalized at 0.2% qoq

                          Eurozone Q2 GDP growth was finalized at 0.2% qoq, unrevised, down from Q1’s 0.4% qoq. EU 28 GDP growth was finalized at 0.2 qoq, down from Q1’s 0.5% qoq.

                          Among Member States for which data are available, Hungary (+1.1%) recorded the highest growth compared with the previous quarter, followed by Romania (+1.0%) and Bulgaria, Denmark, Greece, Cyprus, Lithuania and Poland (all +0.8%). Decreases were observed in the United Kingdom (-0.2%), Germany and Sweden (both -0.1%), while in Italy, stagnation was observed.

                          Household final consumption expenditure rose by 0.2% in the Eurozone and by 0.3% in the EU28 (after +0.4% in both zones in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU28 (after +0.2% and +0.5% respectively). Exports did not change in the euro area and decreased by 0.3% in the EU28 (after +0.9% in both zones). Imports increased by 0.2% in the euro area and decreased by 1.4% in the EU28 (after +0.4% and +1.6%).

                          Full release here.

                          PBoC announces RRR cut to support the real economy

                            China’s central bank PBoC announced to lower reserve requirement ratio for all banks by 50bps, starting September 16. Additionally, the RRR will be lowered by further 100bps for commercial banks operating only in the provincial administrative region, to support small and micro enterprises. This additional RRR cut will be implemented by two batches on October 15 and November 15.

                            Together, the RRR cuts are expected to release around CNY 900B. They will increase resources of financial institutions for supporting the real economy. And, targeted RRR cut is an important measure to improve the “three-grade and two-optimal” policy framework for small and medium-sized banks to implement a low deposit reserve ratio.

                            PBoC also said that the RRR cut will hedge against tax period in mid-September. Total liquidity of the banking system will remain basically stable. Thus, stable monetary policy orientation has not changed.

                            Solid NFP expected as markets weigh chance of another Fed cut

                              US non-farm payroll report will be a major focus today and could seal the case for another FOMC rate cut later in the month. Fed fund futures are pricing in “only” 93.5% chance of another -25bps cut to 1.75 to 2.00%. Markets are expecting 162k job growth in August. Unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% mom.

                              Looking at other related data, ADP reported 195k growth in private sector jobs, which is positive. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims was largely unchanged, edged up slightly from 211.5k to 216.3k. However, ISM manufacturing employment dropped sharply from 51.7 to 47.4, signaling contraction. ISM non-manufacturing employment dropped -3 pts to 56.2. Conference Board consumer confidence dropped slightly from 135.8 to 135.1. The over all set of data suggested some solid NFP readings today.

                              There is hope for some sort of progress in US-China trade negotiations in October. More importantly, as China stop short of retaliating against the latest round of 5% tariffs by the US, chance of further escalation has somewhat receded. Strong job numbers will give Fed policy makers more reasons to keep bullets at bay first.

                              German industrial production dropped -0.6% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom

                                German industrial production dropped -0.6% mom in July, well below expectation of 0.3% mom. Over the year, production dropped -4.2% yoy. Looking at some details, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by -0.8%. Within industry, the production of intermediate goods decreased by -0.7% and the production of capital goods by -1.2%. The production of consumer goods showed an increase by 0.6%. Outside industry, energy production was down by -1.3% and the production in construction increased by 0.2%.

                                Full release here.

                                BoJ Kuroda doesn’t rule out deeper negative interest rate

                                  In a Nikkei interview, BoJ Governor Harukiho Kuroda maintained his optimistic view on the economy. He noted that “we’re maintaining momentum toward the price stability target” of 2% inflation”. Also, “domestic demand — consumer spending and capital investment — are relatively firm.” However, “caution is needed” due to overseas uncertainties, in particular with trade war. Cutting interest rates “further into the negative zone is always an option” if more monetary stimulus is needed.

                                  BoJ has laid out the four policy options in case of a downturn. Those include cutting the short-term policy rate, lowering its target for long-term rates, stepping up asset purchases and accelerating expansion of the monetary base. Kuroda said “we’re considering a variety of possibilities, including combinations of these and improved versions.”

                                  Released from Japan, overall household spending rose 0.8% yoy in July, below expectation of 0.9% yoy. Labor cash earnings dropped -0.3% yoy, below expectation of 0.1% yoy. Leading indicator rose 0.3 to 93.6, above expectation of 93.2.

                                  Australia AiG construction index recovered to 44.6, slower contraction

                                    Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index recovered to 44.6 in August, up from 39.1. The reading indicated an easing in the construction industry’s overall rate of decline. Looking at some details, rates of decline in new orders, supplier deliveries and employment were all slower in the month. But overall, key activity sub-index fell for an 11th consecutive month.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Merkel: Germany welcomes Chinese investment but there are checks in some strategic sectors

                                      German Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared at a business forum with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing today, after part of her trip to China. Merkel said that her country welcomes all Chinese companies for investment. But the government checks investments in certain strategic sectors and critical infrastructure.

                                      Merkel also urged “there will be a solution in the trade dispute with the United States since it affects everybody” in the world”

                                      On the other hand, Li hoped that Germany will accept more Chinese companies and loosen up export rule for certain goods. Li also pledged that China is opening up its economy.

                                      DOW up over 450 pts, 30-year yield back above 2%

                                        US markets are clearly in risk seeking mode today, with strong rally in stocks an treasury yields. Resumption of US-China trade talk is an important positive factor. Most notably, DOW is trading up over 450pts at the time of writing. 30-year yield is also up 0.112 at 2.068, solidly above 2% handle.

                                        DOW’s strong break of 55 day EMA should confirm that pull back from 27398.68 has completed at 2.5440.39. Also, strong support from 55 week EMA is another sign of bullishness. Further rise is now in favor for the near term and break of 27398.68 high could be seen. Though, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, DOW could feel heavy again after making new historical high.

                                        30-year yield is now back above 2% after today’s rebound. Though, break of 2.123 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook remain bearish and another fall is expected for a new low. But break of 2.123 could bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 2.300).

                                        ISM services rose to 56.4, respondents mostly positive about business conditions

                                          ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite rose to 56.4 in August, up from 53.7 and beat expectation of 54.0. Business Activity jumped sharply by 8.4 to 61.5. New Orders also rose strongly by 6.2 to 60.3. However, Employment dropped notably by -3.1 to 56.2.

                                          ISM noted: “16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector’s rate of growth rebounded after two consecutive months of cooling off. The respondents remain concerned about tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty; however, they are mostly positive about business conditions.”

                                          Full release here.