China inquiring US farm products, including pork and soybeans

    Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said in a regularly weekly press briefing that working-level teams from US and China will meet soon in preparation for high-level trade talks next month. Additionally, Chinese companies has started inquiry on US agricultural products, including pork and soybeans. Gao added that China hope both countries could create favorable conditions for negotiations.

    The comments came after US President Donald Trump announced yesterday to postpone the additional 5% tariffs on China from October 1 to October 15. That’s in responses to China’s tariff exemptions on some American imports.

    ECB to announce new easing package, some previews

      ECB rate decision is the mega events today. It’s widely expected to announce a package of stimulus measures. But up till now, it’s unsure what the exact package would be. Opinions are rather divided, leaving much room for disappointments for both sides. Additionally, ECB will release new economic projections which would be closely watched too.

      Here is our take on the package:. 1. Deposit rate cut by -20bps to -0.60%. 2. Two-tiered system to exempt some backs on paying deposit interests. 3. Restart QE at EUR 30B per month. 4. Adjustments to TLTRO. 5. Change of forward guiance to keep interest rates low well past horizon of QE.

      More in ECB Preview – Awaiting New Easing Package

      Suggested readings:

      Chinese Yuan recovers on stabilizing trade tensions, but USD/CNH won’t break 7

        The Chinese Yuan rises notably today as both US and China offered gestures of good will ahead of next month’s trade meeting. China announced tariffs exemptions on some US products yesterday while US responded by delaying the next batch of new tariffs. USD/CNH topped in the near term at 7.1964 after both sides agreed to come back to the table.

        Technically, USD/CNH’s pull back from 7.1964 is set to continue as tensions stabilize. Deeper fall would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 7.0307). However, we’d expect very strong support at 6.9909 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 6.6704 to 7.1964 at 6.9949) to contain downside to bring rebound. That is, the psychological important 7 handle might be breached, but not broken.

        Trump postpones some tariffs on China as they celebrates anniversary

          As a gesture of exchange of good will, US President Donald Trump announced yesterday to delay the next batch of tariffs on China by half a month. The imposition of additional 5 tariffs on USD 250B in Chinese imports will be postponed from October 1 to October 15.

          Trump tweeted: “At the request of the Vice Premier of China, Liu He, and due to the fact that the People’s Republic of China will be celebrating their 70th Anniversary on October 1st, we have agreed, as a gesture of good will, to move the increased Tariffs on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods (25% to 30%), from October 1st to October 15th.”

          Earlier, China announced to exempt 16 categories of US imports from new tariffs, including some anti-cancer drugs and lubricants, as well as animal feed ingredients whey and fish meal. Trump referred to that separately and said “They made a couple of moves … that were pretty good… I think it was a gesture, okay? But it was a big move.”

          The moves by both sides are more symbolic than substantial in nature. Yet, it’s a sign that both are working towards to create an easier atmosphere for the expected face-to-face high level trade meeting in Washington next month.

          US oil inventories dropped -6.9m barrels, OPEC cuts 2020 demand forecasts

            US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by -6.9m barrels in the week ending September 6, larger that expectation of -2.7m barrels. At 416.1m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.

            Separately, OPEC lowered 2020 oil demand forecasts due to economic slowdown. OPEC expected oil demand worldwide would expand by 1.08 million barrels per day, 60,000 bpd less than previously estimated. It also noted that next year’s increase in oil demand would be outpaced by “strong” growth in supply. At the same time, it lower global growth forecasts in 2020 to 3.1%, down from 3.2%.

            WTI crude oil dips mildly in early US session in responses to the news. Overall, it’s staying in range of 50.43/60.93. Recent corrective price actions suggest that range trading is set to continue.

            Trump: We’re missing once in a lifetime opportunity before of Fed’s boneheads

              In a pair of tweets, US President Donald Trump urged Fed to cut interest rates down to zero or less. And the US government could then start to refinance its debt. He complained again that it’s only “naivete” of Fed chair Jerome Powell” for not allowing the US to pay lowest interest rate.

              He said The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt. INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term. We have the great currency, power, and balance sheet. The USA should always be paying the the lowest rate. No Inflation! It is only the naïveté of Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn’t allow us to do what other countries are already doing. A once in a lifetime opportunity that we are missing because of “Boneheads.”

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              Scotland’s supreme court rules Johnson’s parliament suspension as unlawful

                Scotland’s highest court of appealed ruled that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend the parliament until October 13 was unlawful. Scottish National Party lawmaker Joanna Cherry, who led the challenge immediately called for parliament “to be recalled immediately”.

                Johnson’s spokesman, on the other hand, said he has absolute respect for the independence of the judiciary. However, they’re still going to appeal the Scottish court’s ruling.

                US PPI at 1.8% yoy, core PPI at 2.2% in August

                  US PPI rose 0.1% mom, 1.8% yoy in August, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 1.7% yoy. PPI core rose 0.3% mom, 2.3% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 2.2% yoy.

                  Full release here.

                  Kiel Institute revises down German growth forecast as economy enters technical recession

                    Kiel Institute revised down 2019 Germany growth forecast to 0.4%, down from 0.6%. It noted that the economy is “facing one of the weakest years since the financial crisis” and “such weak figures were last seen in 2013”. GDP is expected to contract by -0.3% in Q3, following -0.1% in Q2. Though, growth is expected to pick up to 1.0% in 2020, and then 1.4% in 2021.

                    Referring to two consecutive quarters of contraction, “Germany thus formally meets the definition of a ‘technical recession’, but this is not yet associated with a macroeconomic underutilization of capacities. Only in such a case could we speak of a recession in the sense of a cyclical phenomenon,” said Stefan Kooths, Head of the Forecasting Centre at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

                    Kiel said the economic outlook has been adversely affected above all by the political uncertainty caused by trade conflicts and the Brexit crisis, with investment and exports coming under particular pressure. Kiel Institute President Gabriel Felbermayr criticized that “the real problem with Donald Trump’s trade disputes is not the tariffs themselves, but the great uncertainty about what is to come. Uncertainty is poison for investment decisions.”

                    Full release here.

                    China exempts 15 categories of US imports from tariffs

                      Sentiments are lifted after China announced to exempt range of US imports from the 25% tariffs imposed last year. The exemptions cover 16 categories of products, ranging from fish food to pesticides, and will be effective from Sept. 17 to Sept. 16 2020. Negotiations between the teams are continuing, in preparation for top level meeting to be held in Washington next month.

                      Additionally, China also announced yesterday to abolish the investment quota restriction for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII) to boost financial reforms and opening-up.

                      NAB expects RBA to cut to 0.5% by February, more stimulus might be needed afterwards

                        Australia’s NAB revised their RBA interest expectations today, now factoring in an additional rate cut in February, in addition to one in November, to take cash rate to 0.50%. NAB also said RBA “could cut as soon as October if there was further weakness in the labour market revealed next week.”

                        NAB noted that “the forecast of lower interest rates reflects increased downside risks to the domestic economy and greater uncertainty about the world economy.” Domestically, growth continued to undershoot RBA’s forecast and unemployment is likely to edge higher. Private demand has fallen for the first time since the global financial crisis. business survey also points to continued weakness in private demand. Internationally, global trade and manufacturing fell on US-China trade war escalation. Business confidence has slumped with firms deferring investment.

                        NAB also urged for additional fiscal stimulus through new infrastructure investment, cash hand-outs and/or the pull-forward of tax cuts. It also warned that more stimulus could be needed by mid-2020 even with interest rate at 0.50%, “unless the Government steps in”.

                        Full report here.

                        Over half of US companies in China delay or reduce investment due to trade war

                          The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai warned that with no sign of a trade agreement between US and China, “2019 will be a difficult year” and “2020 may be worse”. It said that “revenue growth projections have lowered, optimism about the future has waned, and many companies are redirecting investment originally planned for China”.

                          In the 2019 China Business Report, AmCham noted that the survey results are “decidedly mixed”. In particular, revenue growth estimates for 2019 are weak. Only 50.5% of companies expect revenues to beat their 2018 numbers. 27.1% of companies anticipate lower revenues, markedly up from the 6.1% that projected lower revenues for 2018. 47.6% of automotive companies anticipate lower revenues.

                          Five-year optimism dropped by one fifth to 61.4%, against historical rates of 80-90%, while pessimism about the future rose by 14.0 percentage points. The most downbeat industries included non-consumer electronics and chemicals.

                          35.6% of survey respondents see the U.S.-China trade tensions continuing for 1-3 years, and 12.7% expect them to continue for 3-5 years. 16.9% believe the trade tensions will continue indefinitely. 53.4% of companies say that they are either delaying or reducing investment as a direct result of the U.S.-China trade tensions, with only 4.5% increasing investment in response.

                          Full report here.

                          BoE Carney: Sterling volatility at emerging market levels

                            BoE Governor Mark Carney noted that volatility of Pound’s exchange rate is now at “emerging market levels” and has “decoupled from other advanced economy pairs for obvious reasons”. Also, he warned that “a variety of other indicators show financial markets are going to move substantially in one way or another depending on the outcome of” Brexit.

                            Carney also said yield curve inversion is not a “vote of confidence in the economic outlook. Both yield curves in US and UK have inverted for a while.

                            WH Navarro urges patience on trade negotiations with China, 100% sure on USMCA passage

                              White House economic adviser Peter Navarro urged investors to be patient regarding US-China trade negotiations. He emphasized that “if we’re going to get a great result, we really have to let the process take its course.” And, “in the meantime, we need to be patient with the China negotiations.”

                              Navarro was also optimistic that he’s 100% sure on passing USMCA by the end of 2019, because “it’s so important for this country and I can’t imagine that Nancy Pelosi would not put this on the floor to at least have a vote.”

                              EU Hogan: Trump has to see the error of his ways and abandon reckless behavior

                                Phil Hogan, EU’s Agriculture Commissioner, urged US President Donald Trump to see the “error” of his protectionist way when it comes to trade negotiation with EU. Hogan is expected the be appointed by incoming European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, to be the next EU Trade Commissioner starting November 1.

                                Hogan told Irish national broadcaster RTE that “Mr Trump certainly has indicated his clear preference for trade wars rather than trade agreements. If he keeps up this particular dynamic of protectionism, I expect that the European Union will continue to forge deals around the world,”

                                “But obviously we are going to do everything we possibly can to get Mr Trump to see the error of his ways and hopefully that he will be able to abandon some of the reckless behavior that we have seen from him in relation to his relationship with China and describing the European Union as a security risk.”

                                Germany in position to counter economic crisis with many, many billions of euros

                                  Finance Minister Olaf Scholz told the Bundestag lower house of parliament that “it will be very important for us as the largest economy in the middle of the European Union, whether we are actually able to counteract a negative economic trend”.

                                  And, “with the solid financial foundations we have today, we are in a position to counter an economic crisis with many, many billions of euros if one actually breaks out in Germany and Europe.”

                                  He added, “we’ll really do it then, it’s Keynesian economics, if you want to put it that way, it’s an active policy against the crisis.”

                                  UK unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, wage growth solid

                                    UK unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in the three months to July, down from 3.9% and beat expectation of 3.9%. That’s also the lowest level since 1974. estimated unemployment rate for men was at 4.0%, for women at 3.6%.

                                    Wage growth was also solid. Average weekly earnings including bonus rose 4.0% 3moy, above expectation of 3.7% 3moy. Weekly earnings excluding bonus slowed to 3.8% 3moy, matched expectations.

                                    Full release here.

                                    German Scholz urges quick US-China trade agreement

                                      German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz urged US and China to resolve their trade tension quickly. He told the parliament that “everywhere in the world companies are waiting to finally get a positive signal that things are moving in another direction again so they can finally invest.” And, “it is urgently necessary for the U.S. and China to reach an agreement in the trade dispute,” he added.

                                      Separately, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas Foreign Minister Heiko Maas met prominent Hong Kong activist Joshua Wong at an event hosted by newspaper BILD. That came just after Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Beijing last week. Meeting of Maas and Wong triggered furious reaction from China, where Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said China was “extremely dissatisfied and resolutely opposed” to the meeting.

                                      Australia NAB business condition and confidence dropped

                                        Australia NAB Business Confidence dropped to 1 in August, down from 4. Business Condition dropped to 1, down from 3. Both readings are well below long-run averages. And the outcome suggests that “momentum in the business sector continues to weaken, with both confidence and conditions well below the levels seen in 2018”. NAB added that the results are “in line with the weak outcome for the private sector in the Q2 national accounts, prompting us to review our outlook for interest rates”.

                                        Full release here.

                                        US Mnuchin: Currency manipulation is a focus in upcoming China trade talk

                                          US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said currency manipulation will be a focus in the upcoming trade talk with China. He said yesterday that “I expect the governor of the People’s Bank of China to come over for these talks… So part of the conversations we will be having with them is around currency and currency manipulation.”

                                          He added that “If the RMB depreciates 15 percent and you put on a 15 percent tariff, that means that U.S. companies can buy in dollars items 15 percent cheaper. So the fact that they buy things 15 percent cheaper means that China is paying for indeed the tariff”. And, “it really is simple math with depreciation of the RMB.”

                                          Separately, Mnuchin also told Fox yesterday that there was a “conceptual” agreement on enforcement of the agreement. “They’re coming here. I take that as a sign of good faith that they want to continue to negotiate, and we’re prepared to negotiate,” Mnuchin said.