US initial jobless claims dropped to 212k, below expectation of 216k

    US initial jobless claims dropped -6k to 212k in the week ending October 19, below expectation of 216k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -0.75k to 215k. Continuing claims dropped -1k to 1.682m in the week ending October 12. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 6.5k to 1.677m.

    Full release here.

    Navarro: US-China trade deal ph 1 adopts the entire IP chapter in May’s deal

      White House economic adviser Peter Navarro told Fox Business Network that the “good news” about US-China trade deal phase one is that “it adopted virtually the entire chapter in the deal last May that they reneged on for IP”. Hence, “practically it means, if they steal our IP we’ll be able to take retaliatory action without them retaliating.”

      Separately, it’s reported that China aims to buy at least USD 20B of American farm products in the first year, as part of the phase one deal. That would bring purchases back to the level in 2017, before trade war began. In the second year of a final deal, purchases could rise further to USD 40B-50B, when all punitive tariffs are removed.

      ECB keeps policy unchanged, full statement

        ECB left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Main refinancing rate is held at 0.00%. Marginally lending and deposit rates are held at 0.25% and -0.50% respectively.

        Forward guidance was unchanged that key ECB interest rates will remain at present or lower levels “until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.”

        Full statement below.

        Monetary Policy Decisions

        At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.

        As decided at the last Governing Council meeting in September, net purchases will be restarted under the Governing Council’s asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion as from 1 November. The Governing Council expects them to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.

        The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

        The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.

        Eurozone PMI composite at 50.2, points to just 0.1% growth in Q4

          Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was unchanged at 45.7 in October, below expectation of 46.0. PMI Services rose slightly to 51.8, up from 51.6, but missed expectation of 51.9. PMI Composite rose to 50.2, up from 50.1.

          Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

          “The eurozone economy started the fourth quarter mired close to stagnation, with the flash PMI pointing to a quarterly GDP growth rate of just under 0.1%.

          “The manufacturing downturn remains the fiercest since 2012, and continues to infect the service sector, where October saw the smallest increase in new work for almost five years.

          “The labour market is meanwhile being hit as firms retrench amid signs of excess capacity and uncertainty about the year ahead intensifies. Optimism about future prospects deteriorated further in October to the lowest for over six years, commonly linked to global trade tensions, Brexitrelated worries and increasingly gloomy economic forecasts.

          “A further deterioration in jobs growth adds to the risk that the trade-led weakening is spreading further to the household sector, which could dampen growth further as we head towards the end of the year.

          “The survey indicates that Mario Draghi’s tenure at the helm of the ECB ends on a note of near-stalled GDP, slower jobs growth, near-stagnant prices and growing pessimism about the outlook, piling pressure on Christine Lagarde to drive new solutions to the eurozone’s renewed malaise.”

          Full release here.

          German PMI manufacturing improved slightly from 10-year low, increasing strains on domestic economy

            Germany PMI Manufacturing rose to 41.9 in October, up from 41.7, and missed expectation of 42.0. That was just a marginal improvement from September’s 10-year low. PMI Services dropped to 51.2, down from 51.4, missed expectation of 51.7. That’s also the worst reading in 37 months. PMI Composite rose to 48.6, little change from seven-year low of 48.5 in September.

            Commenting on the flash PMI data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said:

            “Hopes of a return to growth in Germany in the final quarter have been somewhat dashed by the October flash PMI numbers, which show business activity in the eurozone’s largest economy contracting further and underlying demand continuing to soften.

            “Manufacturing remains the main weak link, though here there are some signs of encouragement with rates of decline in production and new orders easing and business confidence improving to a four-month high.

            “Perhaps most concerning are the signs of increasing strain on the domestic economy, with growth of service sector activity slowing to the weakest since September 2016 and employment now in decline for the first time in six years.”

            Full release here.

            France PMI composite rose to 52.6, manufacturing still lags

              France PMI Manufacturing rose to 50.5 in October, up from 50.1 and beat expectation of 50.3. PMI Services also rose to 52.9, up from 51.1, and beat expectation of 51.8. PMI Composite rose notably to 52.6, up from 50.8.

              Commenting on the Flash PMI data, Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said:

              “Following a slowdown in activity growth during September, the private sector rebounded at the start of the start of the fourth quarter. A recovery in manufacturing output coupled with faster growth in services saw total activity rise solidly.

              “That said, the rate of expansion in manufacturing continued to notably lag behind that registered in the service sector, extending the trend seen throughout the majority of 2019 so far.

              “Nonetheless, the data are consistent with the continuation of solid gains in both official economic output and employment heading into the end of the year.”

              Full release here.

              Euro mildly softer ahead of Draghi’s last ECB meeting

                Euro follows other European majors and is trading generally lower this wee. Focus turns to Mario Draghi’s last monetary policy meeting as ECB President today. After the stimulus package announced last month, no new measure is expected this time. Instead, Draghi could make use of the opportunity to defend the latest policy changes. In particular, the minutes for the September meeting revealed that the members were divided over QE resumption. This not only would be the focus in the Q&A session, but also a legacy left to the incoming president, Christina Lagarde.

                Some suggested previews:

                Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 48.5, lowest since June 2016

                  Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped to 48.5 in October, down from 48.9 and missed expectation of 49.2. That’s the sixth successive sub-50 reading, and lowest since June 2016. PMI Services dropped to 50.3, down from 52.8. PMI Composite dropped to 49.8, down from 51.5.

                  Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit said: “Japan’s economy hit a widely-expected bump in October following the consumption tax increase which took effect during the month. However, the impact has been somewhat obscured by the typhoon, which panelists, particularly in the service sector, were disrupted by…. Overall it seems that temporary domestic factors have been the primary cause of reduced output at the start of the fourth quarter, suggesting there is potential for some pay-back in November.”

                  Full release here.

                  Australia PMI composite dropped to 50.7, subdued start of Q4

                    Australian CBA PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.1 in October, down from 50.3. CBA PMI services dropped sharply from 52.4 to 50.8. PMI composite dropped from 52.0 to 50.7. The reading suggested subdued business conditions at the start of Q4. Output rose at a softer pace amid the weakest new order growth since April. Business confidence also softened and firms raised their staffing levels only marginally. Meanwhile, input costs continued to increase at a marked pace, leading firms to raise their own selling prices to the greatest extent since last November in a bid to protect profit margins.

                    CBA Chief Economist, Michael Blythe said: “The trade war and other uncertainties mean businesses are deferring capex and consumers are putting off spending. The resulting drop in production has pulled global manufacturing PMIs lower, taking services PMIs along for the ride. Australian manufacturing and service firms are not immune to these global trends. The ongoing weakness in the flash PMI readings for October should be judged against this global backdrop. Australia is faring a little better than the global trend. PMI readings remain in expansion territory, albeit just. Employment is still growing and longer-run expectations are still positive”.

                    Full release here.

                    No EU decision on Brexit extension until Friday

                      EU27 is said to be generally supportive to giving UK another Brexit extensions. But there are some minor differences on the duration. A final decision might not be made until Friday. The question is on whether to follow European Council President Donald Tusk’s recommendation of a three-month delay through a “written procedure”. Or, leaders would likely to France’s idea of a shorter extension, possibly to November 15 only.

                      In UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson failed to agree on a timetable for the Brexit bill with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn yesterday. Johnson could opt for a general election if the parliament is seen as unwilling to vote for the Brexit deal. But it’s reported that his own Conservative party is 50/50 split on the idea of election. Meanwhile, Corbyn is also said to be facing significant pressure from Labour to resist any call for an imminent election.

                      US crude oil inventories dropped -1.7m barrels, WTI breaches 55

                        US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped -1.7m barrels in the week ending October 18, versus expectation of 2.5m barrels increase. At 433.m barrels, crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.

                        WTI crude oil’s recovery from 50.86 extends higher after the realize. The support from 4 hour 55 EMA is a bullish sign. But structure of the price actions from 50.86 remains corrective look. Hence, it’s still seen as in a corrective face for now. That is, another fall could be seen to test 50 psychological level before bottoming. Meanwhile, break of 54.71 will indicate near term reversal and target 63.04 resistance.

                        Johnson and Corbyn couldn’t agree on timetable for Brexit bill

                          UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson met opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn today. But they failed to agree on a timetable to press ahead with the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

                          Labour spokesperson said “Jeremy Corbyn reiterated Labour’s offer to the prime minister to agree a reasonable timetable to debate, scrutinise and amend the withdrawal agreement bill, and restated that Labour will support a general election when the threat of a no-deal crash-out is off the table.”

                          Afterwards in the PMQs, Johnson accused Labour of seeking to scupper Brexit. Corbyn called for “the necessary time to improve on this worse-than-terrible treaty”.

                          EU said to move quickly to approve uncontroversial Brexit extension

                            It’s reported that EU27 leaders would move quickly to approve request for another Brexit extension. It’s noted that it’s the first time UK has not rejected a Brexit deal. And there was agreement among MPs that there is not enough time to complete the whole legislation process before the October 31 deadline. thus, the principle for the extension is “completely uncontroversial”.

                            Germany’s government spokesman Steffen Seibert also said that ” I can say on behalf of the federal government that Germany will not stand in the way of an extension.” UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson still seemed to disagree on the delay, European Council President Donald Tusk talked to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on phone and explained why he recommended EU 27 leaders to accept UK’s request for another Brexit extension.

                            Italy Gualtieri: Debt reduction has to be gradual and sustainable to be credible

                              Italian Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri said today that the European Commission for was challenging the country’s draft budget. Instead it’s only asking for clarifications on the path of debt reduction.

                              He also emphasized “Italy has made use in the past of ‘flexibility’ on public finances because public debt must be lowered but the reduction can only be gradual and sustainable to be credible.”

                              New Zealand trade deficit narrowed to NZD -1.24B

                                New Zealand trade deficit narrowed to NZD -1.24B in September, down from NZD -1.63B, slightly better than expectation of NZD -1.38B. Exports rose 5.1% mom to NZD 4.47B. Imports dropped -2.1% mom to NZD 5.71B. For September quarter, exports dropped -0.9% qoq to NZD 14.8B. Imports rose 3.4% qoq to NZD 16.4B. Quarterly trade balance was a deficit of NZD 1.6B.

                                Full release here.

                                Separately, RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said he’s “very” happy with the way in which interest rate cuts are feeding through into the economy. Additionally, he added that rising house prices could boost consumption and ultimately inflation..

                                US Ross: Far better than 50-50 chance for signable trade deal with China next month

                                  On trade talks with China, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said there is “far better than 50/50” chance that the trade agreement is “signable on or about the time of the Chile conference”, referring the APEC summit on November 16-17. Though, “you never know with paperwork, you can always run into a glitch at the last minute. Also, he said China was “following through in good faith on the promises that they made” earlier this month to press ahead with big purchases of US farm products.

                                  Ross also indicated new trade negotiations with EU could be an alternative to auto tariffs. He said, “one would be to say, ‘I’m just not going to do anything’, the second would be to impose tariffs on some or all . . . the third might be some other form of negotiation.” Ross added that President Donald Trump has “quite a lot of alternatives as to what he can decide to do, and I don’t think we should prejudge what the conclusion will be”.

                                  So far, Trump’s administration has hesitated to start auto tariffs, and turned to trade negotiations instead. A six-month reprieve was offered back in May which pushed the deadline for decision in mid-November. And so far, Canada, Mexico, South Korea and Japan have each struck deals with the US already. EU will be the most relevant should auto tariffs come into effect.

                                  Johnson’s Brexit deal approved by Commons in principle, timetable rejected

                                    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson got the backing from Commons on his Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill in principle (second reading), with 329 to 299 votes. However, more MPs were against the ultra tight timetable to complete the legislative process. They believed that more time is needed to scrutinize the details, than just three days of debate. The schedule for the bill was voted down by 322 to 308 votes.

                                    Another Brexit delay beyond October 31 looks inevitably needed. But Johnson refused to commit to that yet. He said after the votes “let me be clear: our policy remains that we should not delay, that we should leave the EU on Oct. 31 and that is what I will say to the EU and I will report back to the House”.

                                    Hours later, European Council President Donald Tusk tweeted that he will recommend the EU27 to accept UK request for extension. And he will propose a written procedure, i.e., without another emergency summit.

                                    Twitter

                                    By loading the tweet, you agree to Twitter’s privacy policy.
                                    Learn more

                                    Load tweet

                                    Sterling weakens slightly after the news. GBP/USD’s retreat from 1.3012 might extend lower. But there is no indication of reversal yet.

                                    UK Johnson urges parliament ot vote for the Brexit deal to turn the page

                                      The UK parliament is due to vote on, finally, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill today. Ahead of that, Johnson told the parliament that “if we pass this deal and the legislation that enables it we can turn the page and allow this parliament and this country to begin to heal and unite”. Additionally, if the bill is approved, the government would de-escalate no-deal Brexit preparations.

                                      Additionally, the tight time table for the bill will also be voted on. Johnson’s spokesman said earlier that “Voting down a program motion has serious implications. It means legislation can drift on and on … Voting down the program motion risks handing control over the situation to the European Union and therefore making no deal more likely.”

                                      China said to offer 10m tonnes of tariff-free quota for US soybean imports

                                        Reuters reported that China offered 10m tonnes of tariff-free quota for US soybean imports today. The quota is allocated to major Chinese and international soybean crushers at meeting called by the state planner.

                                        This is seen as follow up actions, in-line with US President Donald Trump’s claim that China agreed to by USD 50B in farm products annually, after trade talks earlier this month. However, after that China has indeed bought at least 480k tones of Brazilian soybeans.

                                        Canada retail sales dropped -0.1%, ex-auto sales dropped -0.2%

                                          Canada retail sales dropped -0.1% mom in August to CAD 51.5B, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.2% mom, above expectation of -0.3% mom. Sales were down in six sectors, representing 51% of total retail trade.

                                          Retail sales in Ontario dipped -0.8%. In Manitoba (-1.6%) retail sales were down for the first time in three months. Sales rebounded in British Columbia (+0.8%) and New Brunswick (+3.8%).

                                          Full release here.