UK CBI industrial order expectations improved to -26, thick fog of Brexit uncertainty lifted somewhat

    UK CBI industrial order expectations improved to -26 in November, up from -37 and beat expectation of -30. 13% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, but 40$ said they were below, giving a rounded balance of -26%. It remains well below long-run average of -13%.

    Anna Leach, CBI Deputy Chief Economist, said: “While the thick fog of uncertainty from a No Deal Brexit has lifted somewhat, the manufacturing sector remains under pressure from weak global trade and a subdued domestic economy. Order books remain below average, and output volumes continue to fall. When taking into account the deteriorating outlook for manufacturing globally, it’s clear that the outlook for the sector remains precarious.

    “The General Election is an opportunity for all parties to explain how they will shore up our economy. Ratifying a Brexit deal and moving on to build a vibrant future relationship with our biggest trading partner, based on frictionless trade, will be vital – both for UK manufacturers, and business as a whole.”

    Full release here.

    AUD/JPY weakens after RBA minutes noted a case to ease further

      Australian Dollar stays generally pressured today as RBA’s November meeting minutes struck a more dovish than expected tone. Board members noted that “a case could be made to ease monetary policy”. They refrained from easing further this month because of the concerns about “the negative effects of lower interest rates on savers and confidence”. They, however, retained the view that lower interest rates could support economic growth via traditional channels, such as “a lower exchange rate, higher asset prices and higher cash flows for borrowers.

      Suggested readings on RBA:

      AUD/JPY’s recovery from 73.35 was weak, and held below 4 hour 55 EMA and 74.56 minor resistance. Overall outlook is unchanged that corrective rise form 69.95 has completed with three waves up to 75.67, ahead of 76.16 structural resistance. Further fall is expected as long as 74.56 holds. Below 73.35 will target 71.73 support first. Break will solidify this bearish case and target a test on 69.95 low. Nevertheless, above 74.56 will dampen this bearish case and turn focus back to 75.67/76.16 resistance zone.

      BoJ Kuroda: Plenty of scope to deepen negative interest rate

        BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in the semi-annual parliament testimony that “there is plenty of scope to deepen negative rates from the current -0.1%.” However, he emphasized “I’ve never said there are no limits to how much we can deepen negative rates, or that we have unlimited means to ease policy.”

        Kuroda also reiterated that “Japan’s economy is expected to continue expanding and inflation will gradually head towards our 2% target”. And, “we need to remain vigilant to downside risks, particularly those regarding the global economy.” He also noted that “the effect of China’s policy measures is taking somewhat long to appear. But China’s economy will likely sustain growth of around 6% for the time being.”

        Trump had cordial meeting with Fed Powell, and protested on high interest rates

          Fed Chair Jerome Powell had a meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House yesterday, together with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Fed said in a statement that the meeting was to “discuss the economy, growth, employment and inflation.”. Powell’s comments were “consistent” with his remarks at the Congressional hearing last week. And he “did not discuss the economy, growth, employment and inflation.”

          Trump said in twitter that the meeting was “very good & cordial”. “Everything was discussed including interest rates, negative interest, low inflation, easing, Dollar strength & its effect on manufacturing, trade with China, E.U. & others, etc.” He also “protested” that Fed’s interest rate is “too high relative to the interest rates of other competitor countries”. And, “our rates should be lower than all others (we are the U.S.). Too strong a Dollar hurting manufacturers & growth!”

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          Lane: ECB not at policy limit yet, but big conversation on fiscal policy needed

            ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane emphasized today that “we don’t think we’re at a limit as of yet” regarding monetary policy. But he also urged “the bigger focus should be rather on what … other policies can contribute to make this limits question less relevant, less interesting because the economy would be growing more quickly.”

            Lane added, “Europe needs a big conversation among fiscal policymakers about how to stimulate the economy.” Meanwhile, policy makers “do care about how banks are adjusting to negative interest rates.”

            China said to be pessimistic on US trade deal

              Markets quickly turn cautious on news that Beijing is pessimistic regarding the trade deal phase-one, as US President Donald Trump is unwilling to roll back tariffs. China could opt for a “wait” strategy for Trump’s impeachment inquiry and election. China could also prioritize work on supporting its own economy first.

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              ECB Vasle: Things are under control at the moment

                ECB Governing Council member Boštjan Vasle said “I do not see any reason for a further change in growth prospects” of Eurozone. The economy is “developing in a way which was predicted in our latest projections; at the moment things are under control, going in a direction which is not unexpected.”

                He added, “we are in a situation where the business cycle is in the late phase, the economic situation is deteriorating and our monetary policy is quite stretched at the moment”. Nevertheless, “if the situation changes, there is still room to go in that direction” of more policy easing.

                For now, “it’s been too short of a time to judge the impact since we adapted the package” back in September.

                ECB de Guindos: Net interest margins are indeed under pressure

                  ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that ” recent softening of the macroeconomic growth outlook” and the “associated low-for-longer interest rate environment” are likely to weigh further on banks’s profitability prospects.

                  He noted “many market analysts are concerned about the drag on bank profitability that could result from the negative impact of monetary policy accommodation on net interest margins”. And, “net interest margins are indeed under pressure”.

                  He also said that recession in Eurozone is a very unlikely event. Meanwhile, the central banks won’t reach the limits on the QE program shortly.

                  Bundesbank: Not Likely for slowdown to intensify markedly, no recession in Germany

                    Bundesbank warned in its monthly report that “the slowdown of the German economy will probably continue in the fourth quarter of 2019:. Though, it emphasized that “it is not likely to intensify markedly”. “As things currently stand, overall economic output could more or less stagnate.” And, “from today’s vantage point, there is no reason to fear that Germany will slide into recession”.

                    It also noted some tentative signs of stabilization in industrial demand. Meanwhile, domestic economy will continue to provide growth momentum. “Because the labor market is likely to remain fairly robust and wages are expected to grow considerably, households’ income prospects should remain favorable,” it added.

                    UK Johnson: Conservative majority can get Brexit done

                      UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to speak to business leaders at the CBI’s annual conference in a bid in the election campaign. According to advance extracts, he will say “with a Conservative majority government you can be sure we will Get Brexit Done and leave with the new deal that is already agreed – ending the uncertainty and confusion that has paralyzed our economy,

                      Johnson will also said “Britain stuck in gridlock and our economy stuck in first gear. Extension to extension. Marching business up to the top of the hill, only to march them down again.”

                      US and China held constructive phone call on trade

                        A phone call was held between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Saturday morning. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said “constructive” discussions about each side’s core concerns regarding the phase-one trade deal were held. Both sides agreed to stay in close communications. It’s also reported that both sides have held working-level video calls on details and timeline of China’s agricultural purchases.

                        Separately, US President Donald Trump hailed that “Our great Farmers will receive another major round of ‘cash,’ compliments of China Tariffs, prior to Thanksgiving.” “The smaller farms and farmers will be big beneficiaries. In the meantime, and as you may have noticed, China is starting to buy big again. Japan deal DONE. Enjoy!”

                        For now, there is no indication on when the phase-one trade deal would be completed and signed.

                        US retail sales rose 0.3%, ex-auto sales rose 0.2%

                          US headline retail sales rose 0.3% mom in October to USD 526.6B, above expectation of 0.1% mom. But ex-auto sales rose 0.2% mom, missed expectation of 0.3% mom.

                          Import price index dropped -0.5% mom in October, versus expectation of -0.2% mom. Over the year, import price index dropped -3.0% yoy.

                          Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to 2.9, down from 4 and missed expectation of 6.1. “The general business conditions index was sluggish for the sixth consecutive month”.

                          Eurozone CPI finalized at 0.7%, core at 1.1%

                            Eurozone CPI was finalized at 0.7% yoy in October, core CPI at 1.1%. The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came from services (+0.69%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.29%), non-energy industrial goods (+0.07%), and energy (-0.32%),.

                            EU28 CPI was finalized at 1.1% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Cyprus (-0.5%), Greece (-0.3%) and Portugal (-0.1%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (3.2%), Hungary (3.0%) and Slovakia (2.9%). Compared with September, annual inflation fell in fifteen Member States, remained stable in eight and rose in five.

                            Full release here.

                            New Zealand BuinessNZ PMI jumped to 52.6, new orders and production put manufacturing back on track

                              New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index improved drastically to 52.6 in October, up from 48.8. It’s now back in expansion after three months of contraction from July to September. Production rose notably from 46.6 to 52.6. New Orders also jumped from 50.9 to 56.2. But Employment stayed sluggish, up from 50.1 to 50.2.

                              BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said: “After a five month period of both lacklustre and negative growth, the pick-up in both new orders and production put the sector back on track.  If the remaining two months for 2019 are to keep up the momentum, it is important these key sub-indexes remain positive to finish the year on a more upbeat note.

                              However, BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel said that “the October PMI is hardly what you would call strong. But it is certainly much better than the previous three months where the index languished below 50 which indicated a sector going backwards”.

                               

                              Full release here.

                              WH Kudlow: We’re getting close to trade deal but it’s not done yet

                                White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said yesterday that “we’re getting close” to the phase one trade deal with China. And, “the mood music is pretty good, and that has not always been so in these things.” But he added that “it’s not done yet” even though “there has been very good progress and the talks have been very constructive.”

                                China has resumed significant purchase of US products since October 11, when President Donald Trump announced the place for the phase one deal. Both sides have also lifted ban of poultry imports this week. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said “this is great news for both America’s farmers and China’s consumers”.

                                Fed Clarida: Rising wages not putting excessive upward pressure on inflation

                                  Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said in a speech that the US economy is “operating at or close to maximum employment and price stability.” But, “although the labor market is robust, there is no evidence that rising wages are putting excessive upward pressure on price inflation”. Wages growth is “broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation”.

                                  He added that Fed’s monetary policy framework review seek to answer three questions:

                                  • Can the Federal Reserve best meet its statutory objectives with its existing monetary policy strategy, or should it consider strategies that aim to reverse past misses of the inflation objective?
                                  • Are existing monetary policy tools adequate to achieve and maintain maximum employment and price stability, or should the toolkit be expanded? And, if so, how?
                                  • How can the FOMC’s communication of its policy framework and implementation be improved?

                                  Clarida’s full speech here.

                                  US initial jobless claims rose to 225k, versus exp. 215k

                                    US initial jobless claims rose 14k to 225k in the week ending November 9, above expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1.75k to 215.25k.

                                    Continuing claims dropped -1k to 1.683m in the week ending November 2. Four-week moving average of continuing claims was unchanged at 1.688mm.

                                    Also released. PPI rose 0.4% mom, 1.1% yoy in October, above expectation of 0.2% mom, 0.9% yoy. PPI core rose 0.3% mom, 1.6% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy.

                                    De Guindos said ECB needs wider toolkit, but monetary policy cannot address all problems

                                      ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos said today the central bank has to widen its monetary policy toolkit to ensure its effectiveness. Though, he emphasized that monetary policy alone cannot address all problems. He urged country with fiscal spaces to do more. He added that European economy is not going to fall into recession but growth will be below potential.

                                      Separately,chief economist Philip Lane said euro’s exchange rate is not a policy target for the ECB. But, “It’s plausible that the impact of rate cuts on the euro exchange rate has intensified over time.”

                                      Eurozone GDP grew 0.2%, employment grew 0.1%

                                        Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q3, unchanged from Q2, matched expectations. Over the year, GDP grew 1.2% yoy. Employment grew 0.1% qoq, below expectation of 0.2% qoq. EU 28 GDP grew 0.3% qoq, 1.3% yoy. EU 28 employment grew 0.1% qoq.

                                        Full release here.

                                        UK retail sales dropped -0.1%, fuel the only positive contributor

                                          UK retail sales dropped -0.1% mom in October while ex-fuel sales dropped -0.3% mom. Over the month, fuel was the only positive contributor to growth in sales, up 0.2% mom. Non-store retailing was flat while non-food and food stores declined.

                                          Full release here.