Eurozone CPI rose to 1.0%, core up to 1.3%

    Eurozone CPI accelerated to 1.0% yoy in November, up from 0.7% yoy, beat expectation of 0.8% yoy. CPI core also accelerated to 1.3% yoy, up from 1.1% yoy, beat expectation of 1.2% yoy.

    Germany unemployment dropped -16k in November, versus expectation of 5k rise. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5%, matched expectations. Retail sales, however, dropped -1.9% mom, much worse than expectation of -0.2% mom.

    Swiss KOF dropped to 93, economic outlook remains subdued

      Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 93.0 in November, down from 94.8, and missed expectation of 95.0. It’s also the lowest level since 2015. KOF said: “The downward movement, which has been observed since the beginning of the year, continues. The barometer is still well below its long-​term average. The outlook for the Swiss economy remains subdued.”

      Also, “Several bundles of indicators are equally responsible for the decline. However, negative signals from hotel and catering activities and from the banking and insurance sector stand out slightly. Indicators regarding foreign demand and other services are also declining. On the other hand, indicators for the manufacturing sector remain almost unchanged.”

      Full release here.

      UK Gfk consumer confidence unchanged at -14, upcoming election an opportunity to move UK out of doldrums

        UK GfK Consumer Confidence was unchanged at -14 in November, matched expectations. General Economic Situation index over the next 12 months improved by 3 pts from -37 to -34, two points lower than -32 a year ago. Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK, says: “In the face of Brexit and election uncertainty, consumers are clearly in a ‘wait-and-see’ mode…

        “The general election is potentially an opportunity to move us out of the doldrums – but for this to happen there must be a clear result. A hung parliament could be very damaging for consumer confidence and would surely deepen the obvious malaise that we see month after month.”

        Full release here.

        Japan industrial production posted largest contraction in nearly two years

          Japan industrial production dropped sharply by -4.2% mom in October, missing expectation of -2.1% mom. That’s also the worst decline in nearly two years since January 2018. Output was seen as negatively impacted by temporary shutdowns of factories due to typhoon. Also slowing productions of big-ticket items following sales tax hike also weighed.

          METI also noted that according to the Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing, production is expected to decrease in November and increase in December. Finance Minister Taro Aso said the government would consider more funding or cashless support to secure the economy’s recovery trend.

          Also from Japan, unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.4% in October, matched expectations. Tokyo CPI core edged up to 0.6% yoy in November, matched expectations.

          BoJ Kuroda pushes deregulation and structural reforms

            BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today that “a mix of fiscal and monetary policy isn’t enough” to boost the economy. It’s also important to “proceed with deregulation and structural reforms to heighten Japan’s medium- and long-term growth potential.”

            Kuroda repeated his view that the ultra-look monetary policy could increase the effect of fiscal stimulus. However, he also emphasized “our monetary easing efforts are aimed at achieving our price target, not at helping fund government spending. There needs to be a clear line drawn on this point,”

            Executive Director Eiji Maeda told the parliament that “current ultra-loose monetary environment is stimulating the economy by spurring capital expenditure and housing investment.” That will “push up” household income and asset prices. But policymakers are also “mindful” on the “excessive declines” in super-long yields. He warned that could ‘hurt public sentiment and economic activity by lowering the interest life insurers and pension funds earn from their investment”.

            Eurozone economic sentiment imrpoved on consumer and retail trade

              Eurozone Economic Sentiment rose to 101.3 in November, up from 100.8, beat expectation of 101.0. The improvement of sentiment resulted from slight increases in confidence among consumers (up 0.4 to -7.2) and retail trade managers (up 0.7 to -0.2). Confidence remained broadly unchanged in industry (up 0.3 to -9.2) and services (up 0.3 to 9.3).

              Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI increased in Spain (+0.7), France and Germany (both by +0.4), while it remained virtually unchanged in Italy (-0.1) and worsened in the Netherlands (−1.0).

              Business Climate Indicator dropped to -0.23, down from -0.20, slightly better than expectation of -0.24. While managers’ assessments of overall order books and, in particular, past production deteriorated, their production expectations and assessments of the stocks of finished products improved. Managers’ assessment of their export order books remained broadly stable.

              Swiss GDP 0.4% in Q3, but impact of subdued international environment felt

                Swiss GDP grew 0.4% qoq in Q3, accelerated from Q2’s 0.3% qoq and beat expectation of 0.1% qoq. SECO said: “Exports of chemical and pharmaceutical products and energy were key contributing factors. In other areas, the impact of the subdued international environment was felt more strongly. The economic slowdown is being borne out on the whole.”

                Full release here.

                BoJ Kuroda: YCC would make fiscal policy even more effective

                  BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said a mix of fiscal and monetary policy measures is a standard way to support the economy. The challenges Japan is facing, including recent natural disasters and impact from overseas slowdown, “should be better be addressed by government with fiscal policy and structural policies”.

                  On monetary side, the yield curve control of BoJ, which intends to maintain short- and long-term rates quite low, “would make fiscal policy even more effective”. He added, “which intends to maintain short- and long-term rates quite low, would make fiscal policy even more effective.”

                  YouGov predicts 68 Conservative majority in UK Dec elections

                    Sterling jumps broadly after YouGov projected that the Conservative Party is on track to win its biggest majority in more than three decades in the upcoming election on December 12. The results, if realized, would put UK on track for Brexit with a deal finally on January 31.

                    According to the poll, Conservatives would win 359 seats, giving it a majority of 68. Labour is predicted to win 211 seats, SNP 43, and Lib Dems 13. “As expected, the key thing deciding the extent to which each of these seats is moving against Labour are how that seat voted in the European Union referendum,” said Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager. “This is allowing the Tories to overturn quite substantial majorities.”

                    GBP/CHF’s rally resumed by taking out 1.2892 resistance and hits as high as 1.2931 so far. Near term outlook will now remain bullish as long as 1.2673 support holds. Rise from 1.1674 is targeting 1.3399 key structural resistance next.

                    Trump signed HKHRDA into law, China and Hong Kong government oppose

                      US President Donald Trump finally signed the bipartisan supported Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act overnight. A second bill to ban export of crown-control munitions to Hong Kong was also signed. Trump said, “I signed these bills out of respect for President Xi, China, and the people of Hong Kong. They are being enacted in the hope that Leaders and Representatives of China and Hong Kong will be able to amicably settle their differences leading to long term peace and prosperity for all. ”

                      Republican Senator Marco Rubio, a main driver and sponsor of the bill, said, “In an overwhelming display of bipartisan unity, Congress passed our Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, and I applaud President Trump for signing this critical legislation into law. I look forward to continuing to work with the administration to implement this law.” Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, “If America does not speak out for human rights in China because of commercial interests, we lose all moral authority to speak out elsewhere”.

                      The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the act “severely infringed on Hong Kong affairs, seriously interfered in China’s internal politics, and gravely violated international laws and the basic principles of international relations”. It added, “it is a blatant move of hegemony that the Chinese government and the Chinese people firmly oppose”. The China-appointed Hong Kong Government also said, “the two acts are unreasonable”, and they “will also send an erroneous signal to protesters, which is not conducive to alleviating the situation in Hong Kong”.

                      The HKHRDA aims to back Hongkongers in defend of their autonomy, promised by China in the Sino-British Joint Declaration. Hong Kong’s status will be reviewed by the US State Department, annually, to justify continuation of the favorable trading terms. The law also threatens sanctions for human rights violations by Hong Kong Government officials.

                      Market reactions are so far muted as the main risk remains on outcome of US-China trade deal phase one. Talks are ongoing and no one has eve dropped a hint on when it will be completed.

                      Fed Beige Book: Modest expansion but manufacturing stagnant

                        In Fed’s Beige Book report, it’s noted that economic activity expanded “modestly” in the period. Most Districts reported “stable to moderately” growing consumer spending. More Districts reported expectation in manufacturing, but the “majority” continued to experience no growth.

                        Employment continued to “rise slightly over all”. But reports were “mixed” in manufacturing employment, with reports of rising headcounts and layoffs. “Moderate wage growth” continued across move districts and wage pressures “intensified” for low-skill positions. Prices rose at a “moderate pace” and “firms generally expected higher prices going forward.

                        Full report here.

                        US PCE unchanged at 1.3%, core PCE slowed to 1.6%

                          US Personal Income rose less than 0.1% October while spending rose 0.3%. Headline PCE inflation was unchanged at 1.3% yoy, above expectation of 1.2% yoy. However, core PCE slowed to 1.6% yoy, below expectation of 1.7% yoy.

                          Full release here.

                          US Q3 GDP grew 2.1%, revised up from 1.9%

                            According to the second estimate, US GDP grew 2.1% annualized, revised up from first estimate of 1.9%. With the second estimate for the third quarter, upward revisions to private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were partially offset by a downward revision to state and local government spending.

                            Full release here.

                            US durable goods orders rose 0.6%, ex-transport orders rose 0.6%

                              US durable goods orders rose 0.6% to USD 248.7b in October, well above expectation of -0.5% contraction. ex-transport orders rose 0.6%, also above expectation of 0.2%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1%.

                              Full release here.

                              US initial jobless claims dropped to 213k vs exp 223k

                                US initial jobless claims dropped -15k to 213k in the week ending November 23, better than expectation of 223k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -1.5k to 219.75k.

                                Continuing claims dropped -57k to 1.640m in the week ending November 16. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -13k to 1.681m.

                                Full release here.

                                Lagarde: ECB tasked to ensure Euro is safe and stable

                                  ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech that the existence of Euro is to secure that trust in money so that people can focus on what really matters to them. And that’s the reason why ECB’s mandate and objectives reflect the well-known “functions of money”. Policy makers are tasked to “ensure that euro is safe and stable”.

                                  The Euro also serves as the “most tangible symbol of European integration”, and “bears witness to the degree of integration we have achieved.” Support in the Euro is there with “76% of our citizens are now in favour of the single currency”. Though, she also warned that  “trust takes years to build, seconds to break and forever to repair”.

                                  Full speech here.

                                  New Zealand trade deficit narrowed slightly to NZD 1B

                                    New Zealand goods exports rose 4.3% yoy to NZD 5.0B in October. Goods exports dropped -1.4% yoy to NZD 6.0B. Trade deficit narrowed slightly to NZD 1.013B, down from NZD -1.319B, in line with expectations.

                                    Exports to China rose NZD 279m to NZD 1.5B, led by rises in milk powder, lamb and beef. Exports to Australia was little changed at NZD 791m. Imports from China dropped NZD -100m to NZD 1.4B. Imports from EU dropped slightly by NZD-9.9m to NZD 965m.

                                    Full release here.

                                    BoJ Sakurai: Increasing need to be mindful of side-effect of low-rate policy

                                      BoJ board member Makoto Sakurai, warned in a speech, “in guiding monetary policy, there’s an increasing need to be mindful of the side-effect of continuing our low-rate policy such as that on Japan’s banking system.”

                                      “If there’s a crisis that could disrupt Japan’s financial system,” he noted, “a bold policy response is necessary”. However, ” if the overseas slowdown driven by trade woes is moderate, and the speed at which it affects Japan’s economy is slow, we have room to scrutinise economic indicators in deciding on policy”.

                                      He added, “the next half-year is when we need to carefully scrutinise economic developments”, including the impact of sales tax hike and global slowdown.

                                      Trump: We’re in the final throes of trade deal with China

                                        US President Donald Trump said yesterday, “we’re in the final throes of a very important deal”. He hailed again that it’s “one of the most important deals in trade ever” and “it’s going very well. But, “at the same time we want to see it go well in Hong Kong”. He added, “I think that President Xi can make that happen. I know him and I know he’d like to make it happen”, without elaboration.

                                        For now, it’s unsure when Trump will sign the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. The bill was for backing Hongkonger’s defense of its autonomy, and was passed by both Senate and House last week nearly unanimously. China has warned by retaliation if Trump signs it into law.

                                        Separately, White House adviser Kellyanne Conway said US and China were “getting really close” on the phase one trade deal. And the US will “continue to negotiate”. She added, “those forced tech transfers, the theft of intellectual property, the trade imbalance of a half a trillion a year with the world’s second largest economy, China – this makes no sense to people.”

                                        US consumer confidence dropped to 125.5, softening business and employment conditions

                                          US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to 125.5. in November, down from 126.1, missed expectation of 126.9. Present Situation Index dropped from 173.5 to 166.9. Expectations Index rose from 94.5 to 97.9.

                                          “Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month, driven by a softening in consumers’ assessment of current business and employment conditions,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline in the Present Situation Index suggests that economic growth in the final quarter of 2019 will remain weak. However, consumers’ short-term expectations improved modestly, and growth in early 2020 is likely to remain at around 2 percent. Overall, confidence levels are still high and should support solid spending during this holiday season.”

                                          Full release here.