USTR confirms trade deal with China, maintain 25% tariffs on $250B and 7.5% on $120B of Chinese goods

    US Trade Representative confirmed in a formal statement that US and China have reached an “historic and enforceable” agreement on a Phase one trade deal. The deal requires “structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange.” Also, China commits to make “substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years.” A strong dispute resolution system is established with the deal that “ensures prompt and effective implementation and enforcement.”

    Meanwhile, USTR said “The United States will be maintaining 25 percent tariffs on approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5 percent tariffs on approximately $120 billion of Chinese imports.”

    US President Donald Trump also tweeted: “We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more. The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder. The Penalty Tariffs set for December 15th will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal. We will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 Election. This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!”

    In a delayed press conference, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said the text of trade deal phase one was agreed with the US. And there will be removal of tariffs on Chinese goods in stages. Also, China will increase imports from US and other countries.

    Markets rocked as Trump said WSJ report on China trade deal was fake news

      Markets are rocked by US President Donald Trump’s tweet again. He complained that WSJ’s story regarding US-China trade deal was “completely wrong, especially their statement on Tariffs.” He added, “Fake News. They should find a better leaker!”

      Trump said yesterday that he’s getting “VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China.” WSJ  indicated US would cut the currently imposed tariffs by 50% as part of the deal. New tariffs would be put on hold. China generally believed to offer to step up US farm products purchases in 2020, possibly doubling from the value in 2017 to USD 50B.

      Markets are expecting some form of formal announcement to be made today by US administration. It remains to be seen if that would happen.

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      US retail sales rose 0.2%, ex-auto sales rose 0.1%

        US retail sales rose 0.2% mom to USD 528.0B in November, below expectation of 0.4% mom Ex-auto sales rose 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.1% mom. Import price index rose 0.2% mom, matched expectations.

        Full retail sales release here.

        EU von der Leyen aims at zero tariff, zero quotas, zero dumping with UK

          European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen talked about future relationship with UK after Brexit. She said “We aim at zero tariff, zero quotas and zero dumping, and this is very important for us.”

          She also warned that “we are addressing the challenge that the time is very short, we have 11 months to negotiate a broad field”. “And it’s not only about trade, but we are also speaking about education, transport, fisheries, many, many other fields are in the portfolio to be negotiated.”

          ECB de Guindos said UK election results eliminate uncertainty in the short term

            ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos hailed that “the results of the elections in Great Britain are positive because they eliminate uncertainty in the short term”. And, “we know perfectly well that on the 31st January the United Kingdom will leave the union – this is good in terms of uncertainty, but also hails a new period, one which will not be easy.” “It will not be easy because commerce rules will have to be renegotiated.”

            Separately, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said “The economic situation in the euro zone is beginning to stabilise … and as the situation stabilizes so does monetary policy”. He added, “we are applying the measures decided in September and aren’t adding any more… For how long depends on the economic situation and its improvement.” Another Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle said “domestic factors represent the main drive of economic activity while the growth of foreign demand will be weak”.

            Sterling surges as Conservative on track to massive election victory

              Sterling strengthens broadly as exit poll suggested that Conservative Party is on course for a thumping 86-seat majority after the landslide win in the elections. Boris Johnson is expected to push his Brexit deal through the parliament, with a second reading before Christmas. UK would then be on track to finally leave the EU in an orderly manner on January 31.

              Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said he will stand down after the worst defeat since 1935. The party would lost 61 seats since the 2017 elections, finishing on just 201 MPs.

              Formal announcement of US-China trade deal phase one expected on Friday

                It’s reported that US President Donald Trump has already signed off the phase one trade agreement with China. A formal announcement is expected on Friday. The terms are believed to be generally agreed even though it could take some more time to finalize the legal texts.

                Under the agreement, China would buy as much as USD 50B in US farm products in 2020, doubling the purchases in 2017, before the start of trade war. Both sides would also cut the currently imposed tariffs by 50%. New tariffs would be put on hold.

                The news is welcomed by businesses. US-China Business Council President Craig Allen said “If signed, this is an encouraging first phase that puts a floor under further deterioration of the bilateral relationship. But this is just the beginning. The issues facing the US and China are complex and multi-faceted. They are unlikely to all be resolved quickly.”

                However, the reactions from politicians are mixed, even within Trump’s Republican party. Republican Senator Marco Rubio warned, “White House should consider the risk that a near-term deal with China would give away the tariff leverage needed for a broader agreement on the issues that matter the most such as sub sidies to domes tic firms, forced tech transfers & blocking U.S. firms access to key sectors”.

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                DOW hits record, Dollar jumps as US-China very close to a BIG trade deal

                  Sentiments are given a strong boost as it now appears that US and China are ready for a trade agreement. US President Donald Trump tweeted: “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!”

                  WSJ also reported: “U.S. negotiators have offered to slash existing tariffs by as much as half on roughly $360 billion of Chinese-made goods as well as to cancel a new round of levies set to take effect on Sunday, according to people briefed on the matter”.

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                  DOW hit news record higher at 18203.30 so far and is currently up 0.96%.

                  In the currency markets, Yen and Swiss Franc are broadly under pressure while Dollar and Aussie are the strongest.

                  ECB Lagarde noted signs on stabilization and mild increase in underlying inflation

                    ECB President Christine Lagarde said in the post-meeting press conference that incoming data pointed to “muted inflation pressures and weak euro area growth dynamics”. However, there were “some initial signs of stabilisation” in slowdown and a “mild increase” in underlying inflation. Job and wages growth continue to “underpin the resilience” of Eurozone economy too.

                    There were some slight adjustments in the new Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. GDP growth are forecast to be at 1.2% in 2019 (revised up from Sep’s 1.1%), 1.1% in 2020 (revised down from 1.2%) and 1.4% in both 2021 (unchanged) and 2022. HICP inflation is projected to be at 1.2% in 2019 (unchanged), 1.1% in 2020 (revised up from 1.0%), 1.4% in 2021 (revised down from 1.5%) and 1.6% in 2022.

                    Full introductory statement here.

                    US initial jobless claims surged to 253, highest since Sep 2017

                      US initial jobless claims surged 49k to 253k in the week ending December 7, well above expectation of 211k. That’s also the highest level since September 30, 2017. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 6.25k to 224k.

                      Continuing claims dropped -31k to 1.667m in the week ending November 30. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -6.25k to 1.676m.

                      PPI came in at 0.0% mom, 1.1% yoy in November, below expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.2% yoy. Core PPI was at -0.2% mom, 1.3% yoy, below expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy.

                      ECB keeps main refinancing rate at 0.00%, maintains forward guidance

                        ECB keeps main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.00% as widely expected. Marginal lending facility rate and deposit rate are held at 0.25% and -0.50% respectively too.

                        Forward guidance is maintained that “The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.”

                        Ifo: No ground to fear an economy-wide recession in Germany

                          Ifo institute said Germany’s economy stabilized in Q3 but remains divided, with manufacturing industry “caught in recession”. Though, spread of industrial weakness has been “limited to industry-oriented service providers”. There has been “no indirect transmission to consumer- and construction-related sectors. At present, there is “no grounds” to fear an “economy-wide recession”. Ifo forecasts GDP growth to accelerate form 0.5% in 2019 to 1.1% in 2020, and then 1.5% in 2021.

                          For Eurozone, economic momentum is “not expected to get any worse at this juncture”, even though it will “take several quarters before” a “tangible recovery”. GDP is expected to growth 1.2% in 2019, 1.2% in 2020, and then 1.3% in 2021.

                          Full report here.

                          Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.5%, led by capital goods

                            Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.5% mom in October, below expectation of -0.3% mom. Production of capital goods fell by -2.0% mom and energy by -0.7% mom, while production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.4% mom, intermediate goods by 0.6% mom, and durable consumer goods by 1.9% mom.

                            EU 28 industrial production dropped -0.4% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in industrial production were registered in Denmark and Greece (both -2.6% mom), and in Latvia and Lithuania (both -2.3% mom). The highest increases were observed in Portugal (+3.1% mom), Slovenia (+2.0% mom) and Poland (+1.1% mom).

                            Full release here.

                            SNB left policy rate at -0.75%, downgrades inflation forecasts slightly

                              SNB kept policy rate unchanged at -0.75% as widely expected. It also reiterated the willingness for FX intervention as necessary. Franc is seen as remaining “highly valued”, and the foreign exchange market is “still fragile”. “Negative interest and the willingness to intervene counteract the attractiveness of Swiss franc investments and thus ease the upward pressure on the currency”. In this way, the SNB “stabilises price developments and supports economic activity.”

                              Conditional inflation forecasts were lowered slightly. 2019 inflation forecast was unchanged at 0.4%. For 2020, inflation forecast was downgraded from 0.2% to 0.1%. For 2021, inflation forecast was also downgraded from 0.6% to 0.5%. GDP is expected to growth by around 1% in 2019. SNB expects growth at 1.5-2.0% in 2020, reflecting “gradual firming” in global activity.

                              In the press conference, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan emphasized that negative interest rate “remains necessary” after being introduced five years ago. While the policy “attracts criticism”, policy makers “are convinced that the benefit clearly hold sway”. He also pledged to monitor the impact of negative interest “precisely” and “take the side-effects seriously”.

                              SNB statement here.

                              Jordan’s introductory remarks here.

                              ECB and SNB to stand pat today, some previews

                                ECB and SNB rate decisions are the major focuses for today. SNB is widely expected to keep interest rate unchanged at -0.75%. The central bank would continue to note that Swiss Franc is overvalued. Negative interest rate remains necessary, as well as the readiness to intervene.

                                Christine Lagarde will hold her first meeting as ECB President. New round of monetary easing was already announced back in September while forward guidance was firmly set too. There is no expectation on any policy change for today, and possible for the near future. Instead, focuses will be on new Eurosystem staff macro economic projections, as well as information regarding the upcoming strategic reviews.

                                Here are some suggested readings:

                                BoJ Amamiya: Global risks warrant most attention, domestic demand to decelerate temporarily

                                  BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said in a speech that “Japan’s economy is likely to continue on an expanding trend, albeit at a moderate pace.” Currently, downside risks, “mainly regarding developments in the global economy” require the “most attention”. “Exports and production are projected to continue showing some weakness for the time being, with a pick-up in the global economy being delayed.”

                                  But the impact of global slowdown on domestic demand “has been limited so far”, with growth in all three sectors of corporate, household and public sectors. While growth in domestic demand would “decelerate temporarily” due to global slowdown and consumption tax hike, it will remain firm in “somewhat longer-term perspective”.

                                  Nevertheless, Amamiya reiterated BoJ’s usual message. “In a situation where downside risks to economic activity and prices, mainly regarding developments in overseas economies, are significant, the Bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if there is a greater possibility that the momentum toward achieving the price stability target will be lost.”

                                  Full speech here.

                                  Trump to hold high-stake meeting to decide on China tariffs on Thursday

                                    While there were rumors flying around regarding US delay of the December 15 tranche of tariffs on China, nothing has been confirmed by any named official so far. It’s reported that President Donald Trump is going to hold a high-stake meeting on Thursday with all his trade advisers to make the final decision.

                                    Officials are seen as rather split on the issue. It’s believed that China hawks like Peter Navarro would most likely prefer to hit the button on new tariffs. On the other hand, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin could prefer a hold. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s position is relatively unclear.

                                    The political implication of the situation is rather significant though. It’s rather clear now that Trump’s administration hasn’t seen enough commitments from China to justify at least a delay without debate. The ball is suddenly back on the US’s court. A tariff delay without sufficient concessions from China would in no doubt weaken Trump’s hand for the next phase of trade talks, or even the closure of phase one.

                                    On the other hand, the impact of tariffs imposed so far could be seen by some as relatively muted, or at least not as disastrous as some claimed. Trump’s team could instead go for more tariffs while emphasizing to the public that they won’t be painful. Either way, the decision would be know rather soon.

                                    Dollar index breaks key support on Fed Powell and projections

                                      Dollar was sold off deeply overnight after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that Fed will stay on hold unless inflation materially surprises on the upside ahead. Fed’s median projections might point to one hike in each of 2021 and 2022 after staying on hold for next year. Core inflation projection, estimated at between 1.9-2.0% through the horizon, argues that there is indeed no need for the projected hikes.

                                      In the press conference, Powell reinforced his recent messages that both the economy and monetary policy right now are “in a good place”. Outlook remains a “favorable one despite global developments and ongoing risks”. And, “as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook, the current stance of monetary policy likely will remain appropriate.”

                                      More importantly, he added that “we don’t have to worry so much about inflation”. It would take a “persistent” jump in inflation to warrant higher interest rates. At the same time, unemployment can remain at quite low levels for an extended period of time “without unwarranted upward pressure on inflation”.

                                      Dollar index is now trading below the key support of  55 week EMA. More decline and sustained break of the EMA would confirm medium term topping at 99.66 and broke the up trend since 88.26. A correction would at least be seen to 38.2% retracement of 88.25 to 99.66 at 95.30.

                                      Fed chair Jerome Powell’s press conference live stream

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                                        Fed stands pat, projections no move in 2020 and a hike in 2021

                                          Fed left federal funds rate unchanged at 1.50-1.75% as widely expected. The decision was made by unanimous vote, with no dissent. Fed sounds cautious as “business fixed investment and exports remain weak”, with inflation running below target and market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low. Nevertheless, “current stance of monetary policy is appropriate”.

                                          In the new economic projections, GDP forecasts were left unchanged. Unemployment rate projections were lowered to 3.5% in 2020, 3.6% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022 respectively. Core PCE inflation projections were also left unchanged for 2020, 2021 and 2020.

                                          Federal funds rate projections revised lower as expected. Most importantly, median projections show federal funds rate at 1.6% in 2020, that is, no more rate cut next year. Then, interest rate will climb to 1.9% (one hike) in 2021 and 2.1% (another hike) in 2022. But rates will stays below the longer run average of 2.5%, which is unchanged from September estimation.

                                          Full statement here.