EU von der Leyen: Time extremely short for mass negotiations with UK

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told German Der Spiegel that she’s worried about UK’s schedule to complete negotiations of future relationship by end of 2020. She said, “that worries me a lot, because time is extremely short for the mass of issues that have to be negotiated.”

    Separately, she told French daily Les Echo that both sides need to needed to seriously assess if there is enough time to complete trade negotiations. And, “it would be reasonable to evaluate the situation mid-year and then, if necessary, agree on extending the transition period.”

    ECB: Global recovery projected to be shallow

      ECB said in its monthly economic bulletin that more recent information “points to a stabilisation in global growth”. In particular, survey-based data like PMI point to a “moderate recovery in manufacturing output growth and some moderation in services output growth”. Nevertheless, global recovery is projected to be “shallow”, reflecting moderation of growth in advanced economies and sluggishness in some emerging markets.

      For Eurozone, however, ongoing weakness of international trade continues to weigh on manufacturing sector and is dampening investment growth. Survey-based data, while remaining weak overall, point to some stabilization of slowdown too.

      Measures of underlying inflation in Eurozone “generally remained muted”. ECB added, that “market-based indicators of longer-term inflation expectations have remained at very low levels, while survey-based expectations also stand at historical lows.

      Full ECB Monthly Bulletin here.

      US stocks extend record run as NASDAQ breaks 9000

        US stocks extended record run in holiday trading this week, with all three major indices closing at new record highs. S&P 500’s rally in the past two week is impressive, with strong pick up in upside momentum. Long term channel resistance was taken out without much hesitation.

        Overbought condition in weekly RSI shouldn’t limit the rally for now. Current up trend is now on track to 100% projection of 1810.10 to 2940.91 from 2346.58 at 3477.39. Though, strong resistance should be seen around there to bring corrections.

        NASDAQ also extended recent up trend and closed above 9000 level for the first time. It’s now facing long term channel resistance. Considering that equivalent resistance was taken out by S&P 500 rather decisively, we’d expect NASDAQ to follow soon. NASDAQ should be heading to 100% projection of 4209.76 to 8133.30 from 6190.17 at 10113.71.

        BoJ: May need to expand QQE after consumption tax hike, just like 2014

          In the Summary of Opinions at BoJ’s December 18-19 meeting, it’s noted there has been “no further increase” in the possibility that momentum toward achieving price target will be lost. Therefore, maintaining the current guidelines for market operations and asset purchases is “appropriate”.

          Nevertheless, downside risks to economic activity and prices “continue to warrant attention”, mainly regarding overseas developments. And it’s appropriate to maintain a stance of being “tilted toward monetary accommodation”. With risks “skewed to the downside” BoJ should continue to examine “whether additional monetary easing will be necessary”.

          In particular, it’s noted that BoJ expanded QQE around half a year after the previous consumption tax hike in 2014. “It may become necessary to conduct further monetary easing this time as well”.

          Full summary of opinions here.

          Japan industrial production and retail sales contracted

            Economic data released from Japan showed strain in both the business and consumer sides of the economy. Industrial production dropped for the second month in a row, by -0.9% mom in November. Though, that came in better than expectation of -1.4% mom. Back in October, production dropped -4.5% mom, largest month-on-month decline since 2013. Both months’ data pointed to sharp contraction in factory output in Q4.

            Meanwhile, retail sales dropped -2.1% yoy in November too, worse than expectation of -1.7% yoy. Back in October, sales dropped sharply by -7.1% as sales tax hike took effect, worst since 2015. Sales had clearly not recovered yet and is poised to have a weak quarter too.

            Though, on the positive side, unemployment rate dropped to 2.2% in November, down from 2.4%, beat expectation of 2.4%. Tokyo CPI accelerated to 0.8% yoy in December, up from 0.6% yoy, beat expectation of 0.6% yoy.

            US initial claims dropped to 222k, matched expectations

              US initial jobless claims dropped -13k to 222k in the week ending December 21, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.25k to 228k.

              Continuing claims dropped -6k to 1.719m in the week ending December 14. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 19.25k to 1.704m.

              Full release here.

               

              BoJ Kuroda: Global uncertainties eased somewhat, but downside risks remain significant

                BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today, at the annual meeting of Keidanren, “while continuing to carefully examine various risks, the BOJ will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if there is a greater possibility that the momentum toward achieving the price stability target will be lost.”

                He acknowledged that “uncertainties over the global economy, including developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations, have eased somewhat. But he also warned, “the BOJ considers that downside risks regarding the outlook for the global economy remain significant.”

                China’s soybean import from US surged as both sides prepare for trade deal signing

                  China’s import of US soybeans surged to 2.6m tonnes in November, hitting the highest level since March 2018. That compared to 1.1m tonnes in October and virtually zero from a year ago. On the other hand, soybean shipments from Brazil was nearly unchanged at 3.9m tonnes, comparing to 3.8m tonnes in October, but down -24% from 5.1m tonnes last year.

                  Agricultural purchases by China is set to rises further as the US and China are set to sign the phase one trade deal soon, likely in January. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that “we will be having a signing ceremony, yes. We will ultimately, yes, when we get together. And we’ll be having a quicker signing because we want to get it done. The deal is done, it’s just being translated right now.”

                  Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said on Wednesday, “both sides’ economic and trade teams are in close communication about detailed arrangements for the deal’s signing and other follow-up work.”

                  Gold ready to resume up trend through 1557, to target 1625 projection level

                    Gold surges sharply in the past two days after getting rid of 55 day EMA decisively, breaking 1500 handle. The development now suggests that corrective fall from 1557.04 has completed at 1445.59 already, supported by 38.2% retracement of 1266.26 to 1557.04 at 1445.95.

                    Further rise should now be seen to retest 1557.04 first. Break will resume whole up trend form 1160.17, as well as that from 1046.37. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1266.26 to 1557.04 from 1445.59 at 1625.29. As rise from 1445.59 could be the fifth leg of the five-wave sequence from 1160.17, we’d expect strong resistance from 1625.29 to limit upside to bring medium term correction.

                    WTI’s corrective rise sets to extend, for a short while

                      WTI crude oil jumps notably in Asian session today and it’s now back above 61 handle. With strong support seen from 4 hour 55 EMA, current rebound should be setting the stage for resumption of whole rise form 50.86, through 61.38 temporary top.

                      However, we’d reiterate our view that such choppy rise from 50.86 should be corrective in nature, as part of the pattern that started back at 66.49. At this point, we don’t expect We don’t expect strong pick up in upside momentum with the next move.

                      Indeed, WTI shouldn’t sustain above channel resistance for now and upside should be limited below 63.04 resistance. Meanwhile, break of 59.95 support should indicate short term topping and at least bring test on channel support (now at 56.83).

                      US durable goods orders dropped -2%, second decline in three months

                        US durable goods orders dropped -2.0% mom to USD 242.6B, well below expectation of 0.2%. Headline orders was down in two of the last three months. Ex-transport orders was flat, missed expectation of 1.5% rise. Ex-defense orders, on the other hand, rose 0.8%.

                        Full release here.

                        Canada GDP posted first monthly decline in 8 months, by -0.1%

                          Canada GDP contracted -0.1% mom in October, below expectation of 0.1% mom. That’s also the first decline in eight months. Goods-producing industries had the second consecutive monthly decline, by -0.5% mom. Services-producing industries were essentially unchanged. Overall, 13 of 30 industrial sectors still posted growth in the month.

                          Full release here.

                          China lowers tariffs on 859 imports types to below MFN rates

                            China’s Ministry of Finance announced to cut import tariffs for range of products starting January 1. A total of 859 product types will enjoy provisional import tariffs lower than the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) rates charged in 2020. The move aimed at meeting specific domestic demands but not totally related to US-China trade deal. The MOF also said that Goods from New Zealand, Peru, Costa Rica, Switzerland, Iceland, Singapore, Australia, South Korea, Georgia, Chile and Pakistan will have even lower levies under the re-negotiated free trade agreements with China.

                            In particular, tariffs for frozen pork will be lowered from the MFN rate of 12% to 8%. Also, rate for frozen avocado will be lowered from MFN rate from 30% to 7%. Tariffs for some asthma and diabetes medications will be set at zero. Import tariffs on multi-component semiconductors will be cut to zero.

                            Trump: Signing of giant China trade deal being arranged

                              US President Donald Trump said late Friday that he “had a very good talk with President Xi of China concerning our giant Trade Deal.” He noted that China has already started “large scale purchases” of US farm products. Formal signing of the agreement is “being arranged”. Both presidents also discussed the issues of North Korea and Hong Kong.

                              While Trump is due to travel to Switzerland for the annual World Economic Forum in Davos at the end of January, Xi is not expected to be there. Hence, it’s an unlikely location for the signing. According to comments from US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, the 86-page trade agreement would be signed by him and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in early January in Washington. The agreement is expected to come into effect 30 days afterwards.

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                              UK Johnson’s Brexit deal passed second reading with 358-234 votes

                                UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally won the approval for his Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in the Commons. MPS voted 358-234 to pass the second reading of the bill. The final stage of ratification will take place after Christmas. The Commons are expected to approve the legislation by January 9, then pass the the Lords, and then for Royal Assent.

                                “This is the time when we move on and discard the old labels of ‘leave’ and ‘remain’ … now is the time to act together as one reinvigorated nation, one United Kingdom,” Johnson told parliament before the vote.

                                “Now is the moment to come together and write a new and exciting chapter in our national story, to forge a new partnership with our European friends, to stand tall in the world, to begin the healing for which the whole people of this country yearn.”

                                US Q3 GDP growth finalized at 2.1%, core PCE at 2.1%

                                  US Q3 GDP growth was finalized at 2.1% annual rate, unrevised, slightly up from Q2’s 2.0%. Current-dollar GDP grew 3.8% annualized. PCE price index was finalized at 1.5% yoy, core PCE at 2.1%.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Canada retail sales dropped -1.2%, ex-auto sales dropped -0.5%

                                    Canada retail sales dropped -1.2% mom to 50.9B in October, well below expectation of 0.1% mom rise. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.5% mom, also missed expectation of 0.2% mom. Lower sales were reported in 8 of 11 subsectors, representing 81% of retail trade. Also, sales were down in six provinces. Retail sales dropped -2.0% in Ontario, -1.7% in Quebec, -0.9% in British Columbia.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Former BoE Deputy Governor Bailey named to replace Carney

                                      The UK Government named Andrew Bailey as the next BoE Governor, taking over from Mark Carney starting March 16. Bailey is currently the CEO of the Financial Conduct Authority. He worked at the BoE for 30 years, last serving as Deputy Governor from April 2013 to July 2016. On the appointment, he said he’s honored to take over “particularly at such a critical time for the nation as we leave the European Union.”

                                      Finance Minister Sajid Javid said Bailey would serve an eight-year term. He added, “Andrew was the stand-out candidate in a competitive field. He is the right person to lead the Bank as we forge a new future outside the EU and level-up opportunity across the country.”

                                      UK Q3 GDP finalized at 0.4%, upward revisions to all three main industries

                                        UK Q3 GDP growth was finalized at 0.4% qoq, revised up from 0.3% qoq. There were upward revisions to the output of all three main industries. Services grew 0.37%. Production grew a mere 0.01%. Construction grew 0.07%. Agriculture, forestry and fishing were flat. Also from UK, current account deficit narrowed to GBP -15.9B in Q3. Public sector net borrowing dropped to GBP 4.9B in November.

                                        German Gfk consumer confidence dropped to -0.1, economic expectations tumbled

                                          German Gfk consumer confidence dropped -0.1 to 9.6 in January. Economic expectations dropped sharply to -4.4, down from 1.7. Gfk said that ” impression among consumers that the German economy will weaken significantly has been reinforced.”. Also, “The trade conflicts between the US and China, on the one hand, and the US and the EU, on the other, continue to smolder, hanging like a sword of Damocles over Germany, a nation highly dependent on exports”.

                                          Full release here.