German BDI projects growth to slow to 0.5% in 2020

    Germany’s BDI association expected growth to slow further in 2020 to 0.5%. After calendar adjustment, growth could be as low as 0.1%. President Dieter Kempf said “industry remains stuck in recession, there are no signs for the sector bottoming out.”

    He called for the government to lower corporate taxes to push averaged burden from the current 31% to 24%. He also urged massive public infrastructure investment over the next 10 years to boost the economy.

    Released earlier, Germany CPI was finalized at 0.5% mom, 1.5% yoy in December.

    Chinese VP Liu: Correct choice for US to remove China as currency manipulator

      Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said after signing the trade deal that “cooperation is the only correct option, especially in this new era… We don’t think tariffs are a good solution. Both sides need to solve problems through negotiation.” “China and the U.S. will make positive impacts on the whole world.”

      Liu also noted that the negotiations were “cultural talks, not just economics…or just trade” and “after two years of talks, we realize that this is a systematic process.” “We will use the results of the phase one deal to prove that our negotiations are working to improve the economy.”

      On currency manipulation, he said “it is the correct choice for the U.S. to remove China from the currency manipulator list. A week after the U.S. labeled China as a currency manipulator, the IMF issued a report that China did not manipulate the exchange rate. The U.S. realized this fact, and we welcome the U.S. meeting China halfway on this.”

      US-China trade deal phase one signed to right the wrongs

        US President Donald Trump finally signed the trade deal phase one with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He yesterday. Trump hailed that both countries are “righting the wrongs of the past and delivering a future of economic justice and security for American workers, farmers and families.” And the deal has “total and full enforceability.” On further tariff relieves, he added, “I will agree to take those tariffs off if we’re able to do phase two, otherwise we don’t have any cards to negotiate with.” Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a letter that the deal is “good for China, for the U.S. and for the whole world”. And, “in the next step, the two sides need to implement the agreement in earnest.”

        Some core elements of the deal including an action plan for China to strengthen intellectual property protection within 30 days. The proposal would include “measures that China will take to implement its obligations” and “the date by which each measure will go into effect.” American companies will be ensured to work “without any force or pressure from the other Party to transfer their technology to persons of the other Party.” China will also increase purchases of US products by at least USD 200B over two years.

        Questions remain on implementation of the deal even though Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer insisted there is a strong enforcement mechanism “with real teeth”. Some criticized that the enforcement mechanism is too simplistic, as it’s ultimately just a decision of one party pulling out.

        Full US-China trade agreement phase one.

        US oil inventories dropped -2.5m barrels, WTI ignores and extends decline

          US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -2.5m barrels in the weekending January 10, versus expectation of 0.4m barrels rise. At 428.5 million barrels, crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.

          WTI crude oil pays little attention the the data, however. WTI’s decline from 65.38 is in progress and reaches as low as 57.35 so far. Outlook is unchanged that such decline is a leg in the sideway pattern that started back at 66.49. As long as 60.34 resistance holds, we’d expect further fall towards 50.86 support.

          Russian PM resigns to give way to Putin’s constitutional changes

            As reported by Russia’s Tass, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev submitted his resignation to President Vladimir Putin today. That’s seen as a move to make way for Putin’s changes in the constitution, to increase the powers of both the prime minster and the cabinet.

            The news came after Putin’s annual state of the nation address earlier, where he proposed constitutional amendments. He said, the changes would “increase the role and significance of the country’s parliament … of parliamentary parties, and the independence and responsibility of the prime minister.”

            The moves reignites speculations on Putin’s plan after his current presidential term ends in 2024. One possibility is that he would shift power to the parliament and assume an enhanced role as prime minister afterwards.

            Swiss Franc jumps broadly on the news, taking Euro higher.

            US Empire State manufacturing rose to 4.8

              US Empire State Manufacturing general business conditions rose to 4.8 in January, up from 3.5, beat expectation of 4.1. Twenty-eight percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 23 percent reported that conditions had worsened. Business activity “edged somewhat higher”.

              PPI rose 0.1% mom, 1.3% yoy in December, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.2% yoy. PPI core rose 0.1% mom, 1.1% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.4% yoy.

              US Mnuchin: China made very strong commitments to stop forced technology transfer

                US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC that the “first step” regarding trade deal with China is “really focusing on enforcement”. There will be additional tariff rollbacks in Phase 2. “This gives China a big incentive to get back to the table and agree to the additional issues that are still unresolved”.

                On the details, he added, “China has agreed to put together very significant laws to change rules and regulations and have made very strong commitments to our companies that there will not be forced technology going forward.”

                President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He scheduled to sign the trade deal at a ceremony at the White House today, at 11:300am EST.

                Eurozone industrial rose 0.2% mom in November

                  Eurozone industrial production rose 0.2% mom in November, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Production of capital goods rose by 1.2% and energy by 0.8%, while production of intermediate goods fell by 0.5%, non-durable consumer goods by 0.7% and durable consumer goods by 0.8%.

                  EU 28 industrial production dropped -0.1%. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in industrial production were registered in Lithuania (+3.0%), Malta (+2.6%), Poland and Sweden (both +1.6%). The largest decreases were observed in Denmark (-4.7%), Ireland (-4.1%) and Greece (-3.7%).

                  Full release here.

                  UK CPI slowed to 1.3%, lowest since Dec 2016

                    UK CPI slowed to 1.3% yoy in December, down from 1.5% yoy, below expectation of 1.5% yoy. That’s also the lowest level since December 2016. Core CPI also slowed to 1.4% yoy, down from 1.7% yoy, missed expectation of 1.7% yoy. RPI was unchanged at 2.2% yoy, below expectation of 2.3% yoy.

                    Also released, PPI input rose to -0.1% yoy, up from -1.9%, versus expectation of -0.7% yoy. PPI output rose to 0.9% yoy, up from 0.5% yoy , matched expectation. PPI output core dropped to 0.9% yoy, down from 1.1% yoy, missed expectation of 1.0% yoy.

                    BoE Saunders: Possibly appropriate to cut rates further

                      In a speech, BoE dove Michael Saunders said the UK economy has “remained sluggish”. The “most likely outlook ” is a “further period of subdued growth” and hence, a “disinflationary backdrop of a persistent – albeit modest – output gap”. Additionally, neutral rate may have fallen further over the last year or two, both in UK and externally.

                      Therefore, “against this backdrop, it probably will be appropriate to maintain an expansionary monetary policy stance and possibly to cut rates further, in order to reduce risks of a sustained undershoot of the 2% inflation target.”

                      Also, “with limited monetary policy space, risk management considerations favour a relatively prompt and aggressive response to downside risks at present.”

                      Saunder’s full speech here.

                      BoJ downgrades economic assessments of three regions

                        In the latest Regional Economic Report, BoJ downgraded the assessments of three regions, Hokuriku, Tokai and Chugoku. Nevertheless, all nine regions reported that “their economy had been either expanding or recovering.”

                        “The background to this was that domestic demand, in terms of such items as business fixed investment and private consumption, had continued on an uptrend, with a virtuous cycle from income to spending operating in both the corporate and household sectors, although exports, production, and business sentiment had shown some weakness, mainly affected by the slowdown in overseas economies and natural disasters.”

                        Earlier today, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that “we will adjust policy as necessary to maintain momentum toward our price stability target while examining risks… We will not hesitate to take additional easing steps if risks heighten to an extent that the momentum toward the price target is undermined.”

                        Full report here.

                        BoJ Kuroda pledges again to take additional easing if risks heigten

                          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remained optimistic that inflation, at around 0.5% currently, would accelerate toward the 2% target. Though, he reiterated again that “we will adjust policy as necessary to maintain momentum toward our price stability target while examining risks.”

                          And, “we will not hesitate to take additional easing steps if risks heighten to an extent that the momentum toward the price target is undermined.”

                          US, EU and Japan to push WTO rules on subsidies and forced technology transfers

                            After a trilateral meeting yesterday, US, EU and Japan agreed to propose new global trade rules to the WTO address issues including subsidies and forced technology transfers. A joint statement was issued by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan and Japan Economy Minister Hiroshi Kajiyama. No specific country is mentioned in the statement, but the context is clearly directed to China.

                            Under the proposal four banned subsidy types would be added to WTO rules, including unlimited guarantees, subsidies to ailing enterprises without a restructuring plan, subsidies to firms unable to obtain long-term financing and certain forgiveness of debt. The three representatives also agreed to urge WTO members to address forced technology transfer issues and their commitment to effective means to stop harmful forced technology transfer policies and practices, including through export controls, investment review for national security purposes, their respective enforcement tools, and the development of new rules.

                            Full statement here.

                            Mnuchin: No further tariff relief on China until phase 2 trade deal

                              US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicated yesterday that there was “no side agreements”, “no secret agreements”, regarding the trade deal phase one with China. That is, whether the US will further remove tariffs on Chinese goods “has nothing to do with the election or anything else”. Instead, “these tariffs will stay in place until there’s a phase two. If the president gets a phase two quickly, he’ll consider releasing tariffs as part of phase two.”

                              Mnuchin also reiterated that President Donald Trump has been very clear with his demand on China. “One was he wanted to reduce the trade deficit, and two — he wanted structural changes particularly around technology and other issues.”

                              The English version of the agreement is expected to be released today. Mnuchin said “people will be able to see there’s a very detailed dispute resolution process,” and “this is an enforceable agreement just as the president dictated it would be.”

                              SNB: Currency intervention not aimed at bringing advantage for Switzerland

                                After a statement by the Swiss Finance Ministry, the SNB also issued a statement in response to US putting Switzerland into currency manipulation watchlist.

                                SNB said, “the SNB’s interventions in the currency market are motivated purely by monetary policy considerations”. “They are not aimed at bringing an advantage for Switzerland by making the franc undervalued.”

                                US CPI accelerated to 2.3%, core CPI unchanged at 2.3%

                                  US CPI rose 0.2% mom in December, matched expectation. Core CPI rose 0.1% mom, slightly below expectation of 0.2% mom. Annually, CPI accelerated to 2.3% yoy, up from 2.1% yoy, matched expectation. Core CPI was unchanged at 2.3% yoy, matched expectation too.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Swiss tells US it’s not engaging in currency manipulation

                                    In the US Treasury Department’s semiannual foreign-exchange report to Congress, Switzerland was added to the monitoring list regarding currency manipulation, along with China, Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam. The Treasury urged Swiss officials to publish intervention data more frequently.

                                    In response, Swiss Finance Ministry said in a statement, “it should be stressed that Switzerland does not in any way engage in manipulation of its currency to prevent adjustments to the balance of payments or gain unjustified competitive advantage.”

                                    ECB Mersch: Economy giving goods signs of stabilization

                                      ECB Executive Board Member Yves Mersch said that the economy is “certainly giving good signs of stabilization”, and “the same goes a little bit for inflation.” Current development could prompt reassessment on whether growth risks are still skewed to the downside.

                                      However, he noted, “it will be premature to give you an answer, but we are certainly moving in the right direction, and for us central bankers, it means that we were proven right to have very accommodative monetary.”

                                      Gold dips as correction from 1611 extends

                                        Gold correction from 1611.37 extends lower today and hits as low as 1535.91 so far. At this point, we’re seeing such decline as corrective the whole five way sequence from 1160.17. Deeper fall could be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1501.65) first. Sustained break there will affirm our view and target 1145.59, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1160.17 to 1611.37 at 1439.01. However, break of 1563.11 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1611.37 high instead.

                                        US, EU and Japan urged to launch trilateral effort against China’s mercantilist trade practices

                                          The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation called on the US, EU and Japan to “band together in strong trilateral partnership to pressure China into rolling back the mercantilist trade practices it uses to grow advanced, innovation-driven industries”.

                                          In a report released on Monday, the think tank warned “without aggressive, coordinated action, leading economies in Europe, Asia, and North America are likely to face a crushing wave of unfair competition”. Jobs are also threatened in industries as diverse as aerospace, automobiles, biopharmaceuticals, chemicals, electronics, digital media, Internet services, machine tools, semiconductors, and others.

                                          “China has progressed enough economically and technologically that it no longer fears bilateral pressure against its mercantilist trade violations, but it sees collective action as a real deterrent,” said ITIF’s associate director for trade policy, Nigel Cory, who co-authored the report with ITIF President Robert D. Atkinson. “Neither the United States nor the European Union nor Japan can make China change its ways alone, but together, through a stronger trilateral agenda, they can.”

                                          US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Japan Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Hiroshi Kajiyama and EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan are having bilateral and trilateral meetings this week.