WTI oil jumps on double-whammy production distruptions, but upside limited

    Oil prices jumped notably today double-whammy of disruptions in two key producers, in Libya and Iraq. WTI hits as high as 59.56 but fails to extend gains so far. Also, despite the recovery, near term bearish outlook is unchanged with 60.24 minor resistance intact. That is, current decline from 65.38 is seen as a leg inside medium term sideway pattern that started back at 66.49. Deeper fall would be seen and break of 57.35 temporary low will target 50.86 key support zone. However, firm break of 60.24 will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 65.38 high instead.

    Japan PM Abe said South Korea is the most important neighbor sharing basic values and strategic interests

      Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe offered some warm words to South Korea today, suggesting both sides are moving towards normalization of relationship. He upgraded description of South Korea from an “important neighbor” to “the most important neighbor” who “shares basic values and strategic interests.”

      Abe told the parliament that “under an increasingly severe security environment in Northeast Asia, diplomacy with neighboring countries is extremely important”. And, “essentially, South Korea is the most important neighbor with which Japan shares basic values and strategic interests.”

      Abe also urged to leave the issues of wartime labor behind. And, “I sincerely hope South Korea honors the commitments between the two counties and works toward building future-oriented relations.”

      US farmers’ approval of Trump hits record after China trade deal

        American farmers’ support for President Donald Trump hit records after completion of US-China trade deal phase one. According to the Farm Journal Pulse poll, 64% of 1286 respondents said they strongly approve of Trump. 19% said they somewhat approve. Only 13% said they disapprove of the president’s performance.

        Trump said he would seriously enforce the trade agreement with China and he believed “it’s going to work out. He added that “China is going all out to prove that the agreement that we signed is a good agreement.” According to the deal, China will buy USD 36B of US agriculture products this year, and more than USD 43B in 2021.

        China: Pressure on stabilizing industrial growth is still big

          China’s Minister of Industry and Information Technology spokesperson Miao Wei said the government will continue with tax and fee reductions in 2020 to support growth. Focus will be on manufacturing sector, with increase in research and development investments.

          Miao said “looking forward to 2020, industrial development faces many difficulties and risks,” and “pressure on stabilizing industrial growth is still big.” But the government will be able to “ensure the smooth operation of the industrial economy” with the above efforts.

          On 5G technology, Miao said more than 130,000 base stations were built by the end of last year. 35 mobile phone terminals received network access licenses. More than 13.77m 5G phones were made. These phones are expected to cost less than CNY 1500 in Q4.

          US housing starts has strongest gain since 2016, industrial production dropped -0.3%

            US housing starts jumped 16.9% mom to 1.61m annualized rate in December, well above expectation of 1.38m. That’s the largest percentage gain since October 2016. Building permits dropped -3.9% mom to 1.42m, below expectation of 1.47m.

            Industrial production dropped -0.3% mom in December, below expectation of 0.0% mom. Capacity utilization dropped to 77.0%, below expectation of 77.2%.

            Fed Bullard could wait and see through 2020 on interest rates

              St. Louis Fed President James Bullard indicated he’s comfortable to wait for the impacts of the three rate cuts last year before deciding the next month on interest rates. He told Reuters, “we eased substantially in 2019” and, “we will see how much impact we have in the first half of 2020 and probably all the way through 2020, and then we will see where we are.”

              He also noted that 2019 was “a year where we really came to grips with the idea that we were not going to go to 1990s or 2000 level interest rates in the United States.” “Not only did we quit trying…but we turned around and went the other way.”

              For 2020, Bullard believes there could be positive surprise. If trade uncertainty lifts, US “might grow faster than 2019, and it is that kind of dynamic that would lead us back to a better expected inflation environment”.

              Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.3% in Dec, services inflation led

                Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.3% yoy in December, up from November’s 1.0% yoy. the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+0.80%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.38%), non-energy industrial goods (+0.12%) and energy (+0.02%).

                EU inflation was at 1.6%, up from 1.3% yoy a month ago. The lowest annual rates were registered in Portugal (0.4%), Italy (0.5%) and Cyprus (0.7%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (4.1%), Romania (4.0%), Czechia and Slovakia (both 3.2%). Compared with November, annual inflation fell in two Member States, remained stable in three and rose in twenty-three.

                Full release here.

                UK retail sales dropped -0.8%, ex-fuel sales dropped -0.6%

                  UK retail sales contracted sharply in December. Headline sales dropped -0.8% mom versus expectation of 0.8% rise. Ex-fuel sales dropped -0.6% mom versus expectation of 0.5% rise. “Anecdotal evidence from a number of stores stated that goods did not sell as well as expected,” the ONS said.

                  In the three months to December, both the amount spent and quantity bought decline, by -0.9% and -1.0% respectively. More importantly, from three-month to three-month respectively, sales hasn’t grown since October.

                  Full release here.

                  EU Chapuis: Managed trade, quantitative targets, bilateral deals are not what a global world needs

                    Nicolas Chapuis, EU ambassador to China, said “the fact that trade tensions may be reduced, thanks to the U.S.-China deal is good news”. China’s promises on intellectual property issues will benefit other trading partner as well.

                    However, he warned that “managed trade, quantitative targets, bilateral deals” are “not what a global world needs.” “We do not like bilateral arrangements in globalization. Of course, the U.S. is entitled to any deal it wishes with China. But if it is not WTO compatible, then we have an issue”, he added.

                    Also, EU is taking a “different approach” than the US with China. Chapuis said “we think that policy of engagement, clarity, the possibility to strike smart deals, to take stock of China’s innovation policies and formidable economy of this country is of interest to us and engagement rather confrontation is the right path.”

                    China GDP grew 6.0% in Q4, 6.1% in 2019 overall

                      China’s GDP grew 6.0% yoy in Q4, matched market expectations. Overall growth in 2019 was at 6.1%, slowed from 2018’s 6.6%. That’s the slowest annual growth since 1990. In December, industrial production grew 6.9% yoy, above expectation of 6.2% yoy, strongest pace in nine months. Retail sales rose 8.0% yoy, above expectation of 7.9% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 5.4% ytd yoy, above expectation of 5.2%.

                      The set of data suggests stabilization in the Chinese economy. Yet, there is question regarding the sustainability, not to mention the chance of a rebound. US-China trade deal phase one should provide some short-term support. But uncertainties lie in the medium to long term we core issues to be resolved with the US in phase two negotiations. At the same time, large chunk of the tariffs remains in place.

                      New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing index dropped to 49.3

                        New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index dropped to 49.3 in December, down from 51.2. That’s the second consecutive decrease and the lowest reading since September. NZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said that “the December result was disappointing.  After a couple of months flirting with positivity, the PMI dipped back just below the breakeven line again”.

                        Looking at some details, production dropped from 49.4 to 48.2. Employment rose from 49.1 to 49.9 but stayed below 50. New orders dropped from 54.0 to 51.0. Finished stocks jumped from 49.2 to 52.0. Delivers dropped from 52.6 to 50.7.

                        Full release here.

                        US Senate passed USMCA, Canada next

                          US Senate approved the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement yesterday with 89-10 vote. House already passed the legislation on December 19. The USMCA will now be sent to President Donald Trump for signing into law.

                          Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin hailed, “this historic agreement not only modernizes and rebalances our trade relationship with Canada and Mexico, but it promotes economic growth, creates jobs, and provides crucial certainty for farmers, workers and manufacturers.”

                          Canada is the only country which hasn’t ratified the agreement yet. The parliament does not return to session until January 27 and, for now, the schedule remains unclear. But little resistance is expected as both Liberal and Conservatives should back it.

                          Philly Fed manufacturing business outlook jumped to 17

                            Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook jumped to 17.0 in January, up from revised 2.4 in December, beat expectation of 3.7. The percentage of the firms reporting increases (39 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting decreases (22 percent).

                            All of the survey’s broad indicators remained positive and increased from their readings in December. The survey’s future indexes indicate that respondents continue to expect growth over the next six months.

                            Full release here.

                            US initial jobless claims dropped 10k to 204k

                              US initial jobless claims dropped -10k to 204k in the week ending January 11, better than expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -7.75k to 216.25k.

                              Continuing claims dropped -37k to 1.767m in the week ending January 4. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 10.5k to 1.756m.

                              Full release here.

                              US retail sales rose 0.3%, ex-auto sales up 0.7%

                                US retail sales rose 0.3% to USD 529.6B in December, matched expectations. Total sales for the 12 months of 2019 were up 3.6% from 2018. Ex-auto sales rose 0.7% mom versus expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.1% mom. Ex-auto and gasoline sales rose 0.5% mom.

                                Full release here.

                                EU Hogan warned devil is in the detail in US-China trade deal

                                  EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan sounded skeptical regarding US-China trade deal as he spoke in a press conference. he noted that “the devil is in the detail”, and “we will have to assess whether it is WTO compliant”.

                                  Meanwhile, Hogan also sounded harsh against China as he complained that the EU is “very open” while China is not opening as promised. He added that China is looking for dominance, influence geopolitically through trade and investment. Also, EU cannot let Chinese dominance put EU companies out of business based on unfair subsidies.

                                  ECB minutes: Policy rates not yet reached reversal rate

                                    In the December 11-12 monetary policy accounts, ECB said incoming data since October pointed to “continued weakness” in Eurozone growth dynamics, but there were “some initial signs of stabilisation”. Inflation development remained “subdued overall” while there were “some indications of a slight increase in measures of underlying inflation in line with previous expectations.”

                                    Policy makers were confidence that current monetary policy would “provide the necessary monetary stimulus” to support stabilization of growth. “Perceptions of receding uncertainties” regarding US-China trade dispute also supported positive market sentiments and equity prices.

                                    There was “broad agreement” on the need to carefully monitor incoming data and evolution of risks. Some members highlighted the need to be “attentive to the possible side effects” of current policy measures. But “confidence was expressed that policy rates had not yet reached the so-called reversal rate”.

                                    Full accounts here.

                                    German BDI projects growth to slow to 0.5% in 2020

                                      Germany’s BDI association expected growth to slow further in 2020 to 0.5%. After calendar adjustment, growth could be as low as 0.1%. President Dieter Kempf said “industry remains stuck in recession, there are no signs for the sector bottoming out.”

                                      He called for the government to lower corporate taxes to push averaged burden from the current 31% to 24%. He also urged massive public infrastructure investment over the next 10 years to boost the economy.

                                      Released earlier, Germany CPI was finalized at 0.5% mom, 1.5% yoy in December.

                                      Chinese VP Liu: Correct choice for US to remove China as currency manipulator

                                        Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said after signing the trade deal that “cooperation is the only correct option, especially in this new era… We don’t think tariffs are a good solution. Both sides need to solve problems through negotiation.” “China and the U.S. will make positive impacts on the whole world.”

                                        Liu also noted that the negotiations were “cultural talks, not just economics…or just trade” and “after two years of talks, we realize that this is a systematic process.” “We will use the results of the phase one deal to prove that our negotiations are working to improve the economy.”

                                        On currency manipulation, he said “it is the correct choice for the U.S. to remove China from the currency manipulator list. A week after the U.S. labeled China as a currency manipulator, the IMF issued a report that China did not manipulate the exchange rate. The U.S. realized this fact, and we welcome the U.S. meeting China halfway on this.”

                                        US-China trade deal phase one signed to right the wrongs

                                          US President Donald Trump finally signed the trade deal phase one with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He yesterday. Trump hailed that both countries are “righting the wrongs of the past and delivering a future of economic justice and security for American workers, farmers and families.” And the deal has “total and full enforceability.” On further tariff relieves, he added, “I will agree to take those tariffs off if we’re able to do phase two, otherwise we don’t have any cards to negotiate with.” Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a letter that the deal is “good for China, for the U.S. and for the whole world”. And, “in the next step, the two sides need to implement the agreement in earnest.”

                                          Some core elements of the deal including an action plan for China to strengthen intellectual property protection within 30 days. The proposal would include “measures that China will take to implement its obligations” and “the date by which each measure will go into effect.” American companies will be ensured to work “without any force or pressure from the other Party to transfer their technology to persons of the other Party.” China will also increase purchases of US products by at least USD 200B over two years.

                                          Questions remain on implementation of the deal even though Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer insisted there is a strong enforcement mechanism “with real teeth”. Some criticized that the enforcement mechanism is too simplistic, as it’s ultimately just a decision of one party pulling out.

                                          Full US-China trade agreement phase one.