Canada GDP grew 0.1% in November, matched expectations

    Canada GDP grew 0.1% mom in November, matched expectations. On three-month rolling average bases, GDP grew 0.1%, down from 0.2% in the three month to October. Goods-producing industries edged up 0.1% after posting declines in September and October, while services-producing industries also edged up 0.1%.

    Full release here.

    UK Johnson: Brexit is a moment of real national renewal and change

      UK is finally due to leave the EU today and the relationship will enter into a transition period. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to say Brexit is “the moment when the dawn breaks and the curtain goes up on a new act”. And, “it is a moment of real national renewal and change.”

      European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said “we want to have the best possible relationship with the United Kingdom but it will never replicate the benefits of membership.” European Council President Charles Michel warned, “the more the UK will diverge from the EU standards, the less the access to the single market they will have.”

      Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% in Q4, CPI rose to 1.4% in Jan

        Eurozone GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4, below expectation of 0.2% qoq. Annually, GDP grew 1.0% yoy. EU28 GDP grew 0.1% qoq, 1.4% yoy.

        Eurozone CPI accelerated to 1.4% yoy in January, up from 1.3% yoy, matched expectations. CPI core slowed to 1.1% yoy, down from 1.3% yoy, missed expectation of 1.2% yoy.

        France GDP contracted -0.1% qoq in Q4

          France GDP dropped -0.1% qoq in Q4, much worse than expectation of 0.3% qoq expansion. On average over 2019, GDP growth slowed to 1.2%, from 1.7% in 2018.

          Looking at some details, household consumption expenditure slowed to 0.2% qoq, down from 0.4% qoq. Total gross fixed capital formation slowed sharply to 0.3% qoq, down form 1.3% qoq. Exports stayed in contraction, for the third quarter, by -0.2% qoq.

          Full release here.

          Japan industrial production contracted most since 2013 in Q4, despite Dec rebound

            Japan industrial production grew 1.3% mom in December, beat expectation of 0.7% mom. However, in the three months of October-December, factory output has indeed contracted -4.0%. That was the worst decline since data began in 2013. The Trade Ministry also said “the pace of rebound (in Dec) was not big… we will closely monitor whether factory output will recover in coming months.” It also kept the assessment of production as weakening.

            Retail sales dropped -2.6% yoy in December, down for a third straight month, and missed expectation of -1.8% yoy. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.2%, better than expectation of 2.3%. Housing starts dropped -7.9% yoy, versus expectation of -11.5% yoy. Tokyo CPI core slowed to 0.7% yoy in January, down from 0.8% yoy, missed expectation of 0.8% yoy.

            China’s coronavirus cases hit 9692, death toll at 213

              According to latest data from China’s National Health Commission, as of January 31, confirmed cases of coronavirus in the country rose 1982 to 9692. Death toll rose 43 to 213. Serious cases rose from 157 to 1527. Suspected cases rose 3071 to 15238. Number of people tracked rose 24886 to 113579.

              WHO has finally declared the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergence. Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said “the main reason for this declaration is not what is happening in China but what is happening in other countries.” But he added that the organization “doesn’t recommend – and actually opposes” restrictions on travel or trade with China.

              Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte halted all air traffic between Italy and China, after having two confirmed cases in two Chinese tourists. Japan raised travel warning to China to Level 2 and urge its people to avoid unnecessary travel to the country.

              US GDP grew 2.1% annualized in Q4

                US GDP grew at annualized rate of 2.1% in Q4, unchanged from prior quarter, matched expectations. There were positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, state and local government spending, residential fixed investment, and exports. Part were offset by negative contribution from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports decreased.

                Full release here.

                US initial jobless claims dropped to 216k

                  US initial jobless claims dropped -7k to 216k in the week ending January 25, slightly better than expectation of 218k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -1.75k to 214.5k.

                  Continuing claims dropped -44k to 1.703m in the week ending January 18. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -6.25k to 1.756m.

                  Full release here.

                  BoE Mark Carney press conference live stream

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                    Sterling rebounds as BoE keeps Bank Rate unchanged at 0.75%

                      BoE left Bank Rate unchanged at 0.75% on 7-2 vote. Jonathan Haskel and Michael Saunders voted for a 25bps cut, for the third straight meeting. Asset purchase target is held at GBP 435B on unanimous vote.

                      In the accompanying statement, the central bank noted that “policy may need to reinforce the expected recovery in UK GDP growth should the more positive signals from recent indicators of global and domestic activity not be sustained or should indicators of domestic prices remain relatively weak” Though, “further ahead, if the economy recovers broadly in line with the MPC’s latest projections, some modest tightening of policy may be needed to maintain inflation sustainably at the target.”

                      Statement and monetary policy report.

                      Sterling recovers notably after the decision. In particular, EUR/GBP was knocked from 0.8487 minor resistance and retains near term bearishness in the cross. That is, corrective recovery from 0.8276 has completed at 0.8595 already. Break of 0.8386 will bring retest of 0.8276 low next.

                      Eurozone economic sentiment rose to 102.8 on industry and construction

                        Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose to 102.8 in January, up form 1013, beat expectation of 102.0. That was a result of marked improvement in confidence in industry (up 2.0 to -7.3) and construction (up 1.2 to 6.9). Services confidence was virtually unchanged (down -0.3 to 11.0.

                        Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI rose strongly in Germany (+2.0) and France (+1.5), while it remained broadly stable in the Netherlands (-0.3) and Italy (-0.1) and decreased in Spain (-1.0)

                        Business Climate Indicator rose to -0.23, up from -0.32, beat expectation of -0.26.

                        Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.4%, lowest since 2008

                          Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% in December, down from 7.5% and beat expectation. That’s also the lowest level since May 2008. EU28 unemployment was at 6.2%, down from 6.3%.

                          Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates in December 2019 were recorded in Czechia (2.0%) as well as in Germany and the Netherlands (both 3.2%). The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (16.6% in October 2019) and Spain (13.7%).

                          Full release here.

                          Swiss KOF rose to 100.1, Swiss economy free somewhat from its shackles

                            Swiss KOF Economic Barometer rose to 100.1 in January, up from 96.4, beat expectation of 96.5. The reading is higher than any levels reported back in 2019. KOF said “the Swiss economy can free itself somewhat from its shackles”.

                            “The indicator bundle for manufacturing is no longer as unfavourable as before and the prospects for other services have improved. In addition, the changes in the indicators for foreign demand, accommodation and food service activities, financial and insurance services and construction are slightly positive. The private consumption prospects are practically unchanged.”

                            Full release here.

                            BoE to stand pat on a close call, some previews

                              BoE rate decision is a major focus today and it will be Mark Carney’s last meeting as Governor. The central bank is more likely to keep Bank rate unchanged at 0.75%. Markets are just pricing in around 45% chance for a cut as of yesterday. Bets on a cut receded sharply last week after data showed strong improvement in business optimism. But the decision would be a close call.

                              Here are some suggested previews:

                              GBP/CHF fall from 1.3310 lost momentum after hitting 1.2528. Such decline is seen as a corrective move. In case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 1.2447 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1674 to 1.3310 at 1.2492) to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.2854 resistance will bring retest of 1.3310 high. However, firm break of 1.2477 will likely bring deeper fall through 61.8% retracement at 1.2299.

                              China’s coronavirus cases jump to 7711, Yuan to extend selloff

                                China’s National Health Commission reported that, as of January 29, number of confirmed coronavirus case in the country rose 1737 from 1459 to 7711. Serious cases rose from 1239 to 1370. Death toll rose from 132 to 170. Suspected cases rose from 9239 to 12167. Number of people being tracked rose from 65537 to 88693.

                                WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in Geneva, “in the last few days the progress of the virus especially in some countries, especially human-to-human transmission, worries us.” “Although the numbers outside China are still relatively small, they hold the potential for a much larger outbreak.”

                                Offshore Chinese Yuan is back under selling pressure today. USD/CNH’s rebound suggests that rise from 6.8452 is resuming for channel resistance (now at 7.0061). Sustained break there should confirm that corrective fall from 7.1953 has completed. Further rally would be seen to 7.0867 resistance next. Nevertheless, break of 6.9420 support will indicate rejection by the channel resistance and turn focus back to 6.8452 low.

                                Fed carefully monitoring coronavirus, 10-year yield breaks 1.6 handle

                                  Fed left interest rate unchanged at 1.50-1.75% overnight as widely expected, by unanimous vote. Chair Jerome Powell said in the post meeting press conference that current monetary stance is “appropriate”. He added that global growth stabilizing and trade uncertainties receded.

                                  However, “uncertainties about the outlook remain, including those posed by the new coronavirus.” “China’s economy is very important in the global economy now, and when China’s economy slows down we do feel that – not as much though as countries that are near China, or that trade more actively with China, like some of the Western European countries”. He added that Fed is “very carefully monitoring the situation” regarding the coronavirus, but it’s “too early” to assess the impact.

                                  Here are some reviews:

                                  10-year yield extended recent fall and closed down -0.047 to 1.594. The decline was mainly due to coronavirus related safe haven flow rather than FOMC statement. TNX is expected to drop further to retest 1.429 low. At this point, we’re not expecting a firm break there. Instead, range trading should continue between 1.429 and 1.971.

                                  Fed left interest rate unchanged at 1.50-1.75%, full statement

                                    Fed left interest rate unchanged at 1.50-1.75% as widely expected, on unanimous vote.

                                    Full statement below.

                                    Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement

                                    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a moderate pace, business fixed investment and exports remain weak. On a 12­month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

                                    Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1­1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective. The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.

                                    In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

                                    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

                                    US crude oil inventories rose 3.5m barrels, WTI softens mildly

                                      US commercial crude oil inventories rose 3.5m barrels in the week ending January 24, versus expectation of 0.7m rise. At 431.7m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.

                                      WTI crude oil dips notably after the release but stays above 52.09 temporary low made earlier this week. At this point, while further fall is mildly in favor, we’d continue to look for strong support from 50.64, which is close to 61.8% retracement of 42.05 to 66.49 at 51.38, to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 55.89 will indicate short term bottoming. However, sustained break of 50.64 will invalidate our view and open up the case for a test on 42.05 low.

                                      China’s GDP growth could slow to 5% or below in Q1 due to coronavirus outbreak

                                        Zhang Ming, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China’s annualized growth could slow to 5.0% in Q1 this year, or even lower, due to coronavirus outbreak. That’s sharply lower than original estimate of 6.0% annualized growth. While there could be recovery afterwards, full-year expansion could flow from 2019’s 6.1% to just 5.7%.

                                        He estimated that the impact of the current coronavirus would be significantly higher than that of SARS back in 2003. Now, China’s economy is much more reliant on services and consumption. The outbreak has also hit sectors including transportation, tourism, catering and entertainment. It could also weigh on the employment market as unemployment rate could exceed 5.3% in the coming months.

                                        In response, Zhang expected the government to step up policy support while PBoC could lower the reserve requirement ratios for banks and interest rates.

                                        US goods trade deficit widened to $68.3B

                                          US goods trade deficit widened 8.5% mom to USD -68.3B in December, larger than expectation of USD -64.5B. Goods exports rose USD 0.4B to USD 137.0B. Goods imports rose USD 5.8B to USD 205.3B.

                                          Wholesale inventories dropped -0.1% mom to USD 675.6B. Retail inventories was flat at USD 661.2B.

                                          Full release here.