RBA Governor Philip Lowe told a parliamentary economics panel that the board is “expecting progress to be made towards the inflation target and full employment”. But the progress will be “only gradual” with uncertainties. The board “has been discussing” the case of further easing. But considering the balance of pros and cons, RBA decided to keep cash rate unchanged this week.

Lowe added, “if the unemployment rate were to be moving materially in the wrong direction and there was no further progress being made towards the inflation target, the balance of arguments would tilt towards a further easing of monetary policy.”

Additionally, he also said it’s “still too early to tell” about the impact of China’s coronavirus outbreak. But he warned, “the impact is going to be large”. And, “given what we know at the moment”, the hit to Australian economy would be worse than SARS. He added, the outbreak could take 0.2% off the Australia’s growth. But, if the virus “persists for an extended period, the effect on economic activity is likely to be larger than currently projected,”

In the Statement of Monetary Policy, RBA cut 2020 year-average GDP growth forecast from 2.75% to 2.25%. But 2020 year-average GDP growth forecasts was held unchanged at 3.00%. Unemployment rate forecast was lowered from 5.25% to 5.00% by December 2020, and from 5.00% to 4.75% by December 2021. Headline CPI forecasts was unchanged at 1.75% by December 2020 and 2.00% by December 2021.

Australia NAB Business Confidence was unchanged at -1 in Q4. Current Business Conditions, improved from 2 to 4. However, Business Conditions for the next three months dropped from 10 to 9, for the next 12 months dropped from 20 to 16.

Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist: “The survey broadly fits with our overall read of the economy. A weak private sector – particularly in the consumer space and only modest inflation pressure. There also appears some risk around the outlook for the labour market and business investment. We think more policy support is needed and that this is still likely to occur in 2020, but for now the RBA appears in wait and see mode with labour market conditions still faring well”.

Full release here.

In an address to the National Press Club today, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said the rate hold yesterday “reflects a judgement about the benefits from a further reduction in interest rates against some of the costs and risks associated with very low interest rates.”

He added, a further cut would help households balance sheet adjustment and “bring forward the day that consumption strengthens”. It would also have a further effect on the exchange rate which would ” boost demand for our exports and therefore support jobs growth.” However, there were global concerns on the “resource allocation” and “confidence” on very low interest rates. It could also encourage more borrowing for house purchases and increase risk of problems down the track.

But the board will continue to look at “both sides of the equation”. “If the unemployment rate were to be trending in the wrong direction and there was no further progress being made towards the inflation target, the balance of arguments would change.” There would be a “strong case for further monetary easing” in those circumstances.

Lowe’s full speech here.