US oil inventories rose 0.5m barrels, WTI crude recovers back above 50

    US commercial crude oil inventories rose 0.5m barrels in the week ending February 21, below expectation of 2.3m barrels. At 443.3 barrels, crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.

    WTI crude oil dipped to as low as 48.98 earlier today but recovered after the release, back above 50 handle. Prior rejection by falling 55 day EMA is a sign of near term bearishness. Further fall is now in favor as long as 54.59 resistance holds. Decline from 65.38 could target a test on 42.05 low.

    ECB Makhlouf: There is uncertainty about exactly what ‘close to, but below’ means

      ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said that “we central banks need to do a better job at communicating and explaining”. He criticized “there continues to be uncertainty about exactly what ‘close to, but below’ means” regarding ECB’s price stability definition of “below but close to 2%”.

      Makhlouf added, “it has been argued that since central banks are unlikely to hit a point target on a regular basis, having one makes it harder to explain policy to the public and that a range, with or without a focal point, may be more realistic and therefore provide the central bank with more credibility.”

      DIW: German economy to grow 0.1% in Q1 only, risk from coronavirus outbreak

        German Institute for Economic Research, DIW, said the country’s economy would grew only 0.1% in Q1, nearing stagnation. Economic Director Claus Michelsen warned economic performance could be even worse if global outbreak of China’s coronavirus continue.

        “So far, however, the corona effect has been unclear and cannot be quantified”, he said, “The export-dependent German industry would be particularly affected if coronavirus continued to spread worldwide.” Industry will also be affected in case of supply disruption for wholesale products sourced from China.

        ECB Holzmann said there were heated discussions regarding inflation target

          ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said that policymakers had “heated discussions” regarding inflation target last week. Currently the central bank’s definition of price stability is having inflation “below but close to 2%”.

          Holzmann said, “Is our monetary policy target – (inflation of) just under 2% – where it should be? Should it be less, should it be more? Should it be symmetrical? Should it be asymmetrical? … We had heated discussions about that last week in the (Governing) Council.”

          A focus was on how far inflation could deviate from the the target. Some policymakers support the idea of a band around a target. But some worried that the mechanism would effectively make the bottom of the band the de facto target. Holzmann prefers an inflation target of 1.5%.

          World not ready for Wuhan coronavirus pandemic, as cases in South Korea and Italy continue to surge

            A team of 25 global health experts returned from China’s Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak. Team leader Bruce Aylward warned in a press conference that the Wuhan coronavirus is a “rapidly escalating epidemic in different places that we’ve got to tackle superfast to prevent a pandemic.” However, “big conclusion for the world is – it’s simply not ready,”

            According to data from China’s National Health Commission, situation seems to be easing with slowing increase in new cases and deaths. On February 25, there were 406 new confirmed cases, bringing the total accumulated number to 78064. Death tolls rose 52 to 2715. Separately announced, the northwestern regions of Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang and the southwestern province of Sichuan have downgraded their emergency response level. Gansu, Yunnan, Guangdong, Shanxi, Guizhou and Anhui downgrade emergency level earlier this week.

            Situations in other countries worsen, however. South Korea reported 169 news cases today, bringing the total to 1146,with 11 deaths. There are 323 cases in Italy, with 11 deaths. Japan’s cases rise steadily to 159, with 1 death. Iran has reported a total of 95 cases, with 16 deaths.

            Fed Clarida: To soon to speculate the spillover effects of China’s coronavirus outbreak

              Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida reiterated overnight that monetary policy is “in a good place”. “As long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook, the current stance of monetary policy likely will remain appropriate.”

              Also, the economy is “in a good place” too. FOMC will “proceed on a meeting-by-meeting basis and will be monitoring the effects of our recent policy actions along with other information bearing on the outlook as we assess the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”

              He warned that the Wuhan coronavirus is likely to have a “noticeable impact” on China’s economy and “the disruption there could spill over to the rest of the global economy.”. However, it’s “still too soon” to speculate the size or persistence of the spillover effects, or “whether they will lead to a material change in the outlook.” Should that outlook change, he said, “we will respond accordingly.”

              Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said it’s “too soon to make a judgment” about how the coronavirus outbreak might relate to monetary policy. “We are still in the heat of this and there’s just a lot of uncertainty”, he added. “In the next three or four weeks some of the uncertainty is going to get cleared up, either for better or worse”.

              US consumer confidence rose to 130.7, improving expectation enough to support spending and growth

                Conference Board US Consumer Confidence rose to 130.7 in February, up from 130.4, but missed expectation of 132.6. Present Situation Index dropped from 173.9 to 165.1. Expectation Index rose fro m101.4 to 107.8.

                “Consumer confidence improved slightly in February, following an increase in January,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators. “Despite the decline in the Present Situation Index, consumers continue to view current conditions quite favorably. Consumers’ short-term expectations improved, and when coupled with solid employment growth, should be enough to continue to support spending and economic growth in the near term.”

                Full release here.

                EU announced mandate to negotiate ambitious, wide-ranging and balanced partnership with UK

                  European Council announced the mandate for chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to open the negotiations for a new partnership with the UK after the Brexit transition period. Andreja Metelko-Zgombić, Croatian State Secretary for European Affairs, said, “This confirms our readiness to offer an ambitious, wide-ranging and balanced partnership to the UK for the benefit of both sides. The EU is now ready to start negotiations.”

                  In the announcement, EU said the future partnership “should be underpinned by robust commitments to ensure a level playing field for open and fair competition, given the EU and the UK’s geographic proximity and economic interdependence.” EU also intends to establish a free trade agreement which “ensures that zero tariffs and quotas apply to trade in goods.” The agreement should provide for “cooperation on customs and regulatory aspects”, and “include effective management and supervision, dispute settlement and enforcement arrangements.”

                  Full release here.

                  WHO: China coronavirus literally knocking at the door

                    WHO spokesperson Christian Lindmeier warned in a press conference in Geneva that China’s Wuhan coronavirus is “literally knocking at the door” of countries. He added that many countries have so-called “pandemic plans” ready. But for how, WHO is not planning to make “big announcement” of any kind.

                    Death toll in Iran surged to 15 today, with total of 95 confirmed cases. It’s just reported that the country’s deputy health minister has tested positive for the coronavirus. Situation in South Korea remains serious with 10 deaths and 977 confirmed cases. President Moon Jae-in warned the country is in “very grave” situation and the coming week would be key in the battle to contain the outbreak. After a sudden surge to 229 cases in Italy, 12 towns are locked down to contain the outbreak.

                    EU de Montchalin: Any tariffs on UK is economically rational position not revenge

                      EU is expected to approve today the negotiation mandate on future relationship with UK after the Brexit transition period. It’s widely believed that EU will guard against any distortions of trade and unfair competitive advantages as the basis of tariffs and quota free trade agreement.

                      France’s Europe Minister Amelie de Montchalin said that “we can have an agreement with zero tariffs and zero quotas if we can be sure … we will have common norms …regulatory proximity on the basis of EU rules.” And, “If we cannot maintain this regulatory proximity, then we must … apply tariffs or quotas,” she said. “It’s not a position of revenge, it’s an economically rational position.”

                      The time frame to complete a deal by year end is seen as extremely challenging by EU officials. German Europe Minister Michael Roth warned “this is an extremely ambitious timetable.” “The time pressure is immense, the interests are huge, it’s a very complicated treaty, so it will be very hard work.”

                      UK, on the other hand, is expected to publish its own negotiation guidelines on Thursday. It’s believed that the economic and political independence will remain the primary bottomline in the talks.

                      Odds of July Fed rate cut jumps to 80%, Dollar index continues correction

                        Dollar turned mixed this week and extends the correction that started last Friday. In particular, USD/JPY was under heavy selloff on risk aversion and falling treasury yields overnight. 30-year yield hit record low at 1.811 before closing at 1.837, down -0.081. 10-year yield also hit 3-year low at 1.352 before closing at 1.377, down -0.094.

                        Traders are quickly increasing their bets that global coronavirus outbreak would eventually force Fed to cut interest rate again this year. Fed fund futures are now pricing in more than 80% chance of a cut by July meeting. It was 50-50 chance just a month ago.

                        Dollar index tumbled to as low as 99.11 on Fed cut speculations. But there is no change in the view that it’s merely in consolidation from 99.91 near term top. The index might gyrate lower for the near term. But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 96.35 to to 99.91 at 98.55 to contain downside to bring rebound. medium term up trend is expected to resume through 99.91 at a later stage.

                        Wuhan coronavirus cases top 80k, global outspread worsens

                          DOW tumbled -1031.61 pts, or -3.56%, to 27960.80 overnight as global outspread of China’s Wuhan coronavirus worsened. That’s also the the third-worst point drop in history. S&P 500 dropped -3.35%, largest percentage drop in two years. Asian markets are mixed though, with Nikkei down -2.7% at the time of writing, coming back from holiday. Hong Kong HSI and Singapore Strait Times are trading positive, recovering.

                          Total number of confirmed Wuhan coronavirus cases surged pass 80k to 80096 globally. In China, the National Health Commission said 508 new cases were confirmed on February 24, brining he total accumulated number to 77658. Death tolls increased by 71 to 2663. Globally, situation in Italy is worrying with confirmed cases standing at 229, with 7 deaths. Number for South Korea stay high at 893 case as and 8 deaths. 47 cases were found in Iran with 12 deaths.

                          In the US, there are 35 cases for now, with no death. The White House said yesterday that “the Administration is transmitting to Congress a $2.5 billion supplemental funding plan to accelerate vaccine development, support preparedness and response activities and to procure much needed equipment and supplies.”

                          BoE Haldane: A big chunk, if not all of uncertainty dissipated since last year

                            BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane said a “big chunk, if not all” of uncertainty regarding domestic politics and Brexit had dissipated since the end of 2019. “Some early stage signs in surveys suggest there could be a stirring in the undergrowth when it comes to company investment plans”. Nevertheless, it’s “too early to declare victory,”

                            Haldane added that the global economy has grown stronger since the financial crisis more than a decade ago. BoE’s balance sheets are in better shape are in better shape too. He doesn’t see the buildup of new asset bubbles. Nor does he see a “wholesale retrenchment” of globalization even with US China trade war.

                            Fed Mester: Patient approach appropriate unless there is a material change to outlook

                              Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said a in a speech that “the economy has been performing well and I expect that to continue”. Fed should continue with a “patient” approach regarding interest rate adjustments. Also, she didn’t favor further policy accommodation to lift inflation back to target.

                              Mester said, “my current view is that monetary policy is well calibrated to support our dual mandate goals, and a patient approach to policy changes is appropriate unless there is a material change to the outlook. She added that Fed has been undershooting inflation goal for some time, “so a natural question is whether policymakers should add even further accommodation to spur a faster return of inflation to our goal.” But, “I would not favor that at this time,” she said. “In my view, doing so would raise the risk of generating imbalances that would threaten the expansion and undermine our employment goal.”

                              “Recent emergence of the coronavirus in Wuhan, China” is among the risks to the US economy. “This might mean a larger negative impact on growth in China in the near term but perhaps a less protracted one,” she said. “At this point, it is difficult to assess the magnitude of the economic effects, but this new source of uncertainty is something I will be carefully monitoring.”

                              Mester’s full speech here.

                              DOW drawing support from 28000 after gap down, 10-year yield in free fall

                                DOW open sharply lower today in response to worries over global outbreak of China’s Wuhan coronavirus. It hit as low as 27995.37 and is currently down -780pts or -2.7%. Currently it’s trying to draw support from 28000 handle, which is close to 28169.52 support, as well as 38.2% retracement of 25743.46 to 29568.57 at 28107.37. We’d expect current cluster level to provide some support for a recovery. However, it all depends on how the global outbreak develops. Another decline could send DOW to 61.8% at 27204.65, in rather quick manner.

                                10-year yield also suffers steep fall on massive safe-have flow into treasuries. TNX hits as low as 1.359, taking out 1.429 support decisively to resume larger down trend. Next near term target will be 100% projection of 1.949 to 1.512 from 1.639 at 1.202.

                                Mnuchin: Coronavirus has no material pact on US-China trade deal phase 1

                                  US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in Reuters interview that outbreak of Wuhan Coronavirus in China is not going to have any material impact on US-China trade deal phase one. He said, “I don’t expect that this will have any ramifications on Phase 1. Based on everything that we know, and where the virus is now, I don’t expect that it’s going to be material.”

                                  Though, he cautioned that “obviously that could change as the situation develops. Within the next few more weeks, we’ll all have a better assessment as there’s more data around the rate of the virus spreading.”

                                  Meanwhile, the outbreak also delays the start of phase two negotiations. But Mnuchin isn’t worried about the time frame for now. “If we get the right deal before the election, that’s great. If we get the right deal after the election, that’s great. We don’t feel any pressure one way or another,” he said.

                                  German Ifo business climate rose to 96.1, economy seems unaffected by coronavirus developments

                                    German Ifo Business Climate rose to 96.1 in February, up from 95.9, beat expectation of 96.0. Current Assessment index rose to 93.4, up from 92.9, beat expectation of 93.3. However, Expectations index dropped slightly to 98.9, down from 99.1, missed expectation of 99.0.

                                    Clemens Fuest, President of the ifo Institute, said, “the German economy seems unaffected by developments surrounding the coronavirus. The survey results and other indicators suggest economic growth in the first quarter will amount to 0.2 percent.”

                                    Looking at some details, manufacturing index rose from -1.6 to -1.3, staying negative for the eighth straight months. Services index dropped for the third month, down form 18.8 to 17.3. Trade index dropped form 2.2. to 1.0. Construction index dropped from 13.5 to 13.1.

                                     

                                    Full release here.

                                    New Zealand retail sales rose 0.7% in Q4, ex-auto sales up 0.5%

                                      New Zealand retail sales rose 0.7% qoq in Q4, slightly below expectation of 0.8% qoq. Ex-auto sales rose 0.5% qoq, below expectation of 0.9% qoq. Electrical and electronic goods retailing had the largest rise of all 15 industries in the December 2019 quarter. After adjusting for price and seasonal effects, the sales volume of electronics was up 4.3 percent, following a 4.4 percent rise in the September quarter.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Gold surges to 1680 on coronavirus fears, 1713 next target

                                        Gold surges to as high as 1680.74 today on concerns of global coronavirus outbreak. 61.8% projection of 1445.59 to 1611.37 at 1547.49 at 1649.94 was taken out with ease. There is no sign of topping yet and near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1611.37 resistance turned support holds. Next near term target is 100% projection at 1713.27.

                                        In the bigger picture, the current upside acceleration suggests that up trend from 1046.37 (2015 low) might be heading to retest 1920.70 (2011 high). This will be the favored case as long as 1445.39 medium term support holds.

                                        G20: Global growth remains low, downside risks persist

                                          In the joint communique of the G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting at Saudi Arabia over the weekend, it’s noted that “global economic growth remains slow and downside risks to the outlook persist, including those arising from geopolitical and remaining trade tensions, and policy uncertainty.” The group also pledged to “will enhance global risk monitoring, including of the recent outbreak of COVID-19. We stand ready to take further action to address these risks.”.

                                          Separately, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said, “in our current baseline scenario, announced policies are implemented and China’s economy would return to normal in the second quarter… As a result, the impact on the world economy would be relatively minor and short-lived.” She added, “but we are also looking at more dire scenarios where the spread of the virus continues for longer and more globally, and the growth consequences are more protracted”.