RBA cut to 0.50% in response to global coronavirus outbreak, maintains easing bias

    RBA cut cash rate by -25bps to 0.50% in an act to “support the economy as it responds to the global coronavirus outbreak.” It noted that global growth in H1 will be “lower than earlier expected” due to the coronavirus and it’s “too early to tell how persistent the effects” will be.

    For Australian economy, the outbreak overseas is “having a significant effect”, particularly in “education and travel sectors”. The uncertainty is “likely to affect domestic spending too”. Q1 GDP is “likely to be noticeably weaker than earlier expected”. Though, once the coronavirus is contained, Australian economy is “expected to return to an improving trend”.

    The outbreak is expected to “delay progress” towards full employment and inflation target. RBA maintains easing bias and “the Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further to support the Australian economy.”

    Markets pricing in 85% chance of Fed funds rate at 0.75-1.00% after June

      Chance of medium term bearish reversal in Dollar Index is quickly surging as markets are now very aggressive pricing in large rate cuts by Fed. As fed funds futures imply, there is 100% chance of a -50bps cut to 1.00-1.25% this month. More importantly, there is now 85.5% chance of at least one more cut to 0.75-1.00% after June FOMC meeting.

      DXY dropped sharply again overnight to close at 97.36. 61.8% retracement of 96.35 to 99.91 at 97.71 was taken out decisively. And focus is now turned to 96.35 key support. Break there will confirm medium term topping at 99.91. Deeper fall should at least be seen to 38.2% retracement of 88.25 to 99.91 at 95.45. There is risk of further decline to 61.8% at 92.70, depending on the reactions fro 95.45.

      Australia Morrison: This coronavirus health crisis is different from a global financial crisis

        Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the economic impact of coronavirus outbreak is complete different to those of the global financial crisis. “This health crisis – with economic, significant economic implications – is different from a global financial crisis.”

        “This is a health crisis which has had serious disruptive impact on … the movement of people, and of goods around the world. That obviously disrupts supply chains and has a suppressing impact on demand,” he added.

        “It is a very different set of economic circumstances and issues we are seeking to address. The most important thing is the cashflow, particularly of more vulnerable small- and medium-sized enterprises; the workers – those who work for those businesses – and ensuring that they are in a position to be there on the other side when the economy bounces back.”

        He said the Treasury is working through the details of a “targeted”, “measured” and “scalable” fiscal plan. The plan will be ” targeted on the real diagnosis of the economic issue we are looking to confront here.”

        Japan Abe: We’ve already compiled a spending package to forestall various risks

          Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said today that the government is ready to implement further stimulus measures to offset the impact from coronavirus outbreak. He noted, “we’ve already compiled a spending package to forestall various risks” in the supplementary budget.

          “We’ll scrutinize the impact of the coronavirus on the global and Japanese economies. If further steps are deemed necessary, we will take action without hesitation,” he added.

          ECB Lagarde ready to take appropriate and targeted measures against coronavirus impact

            ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an emergency statement that “the coronavirus outbreak is a fast developing situation, which creates risks for the economic outlook and the functioning of financial markets.”

            “The ECB is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economy, medium-term inflation and the transmission of our monetary policy. We stand ready to take appropriate and targeted measures, as necessary and commensurate with the underlying risks.”

            Global coronavirus surge, G7 to consider concerted actions

              New cases of coronavirus in China continued to slow. According to the National Health Commission, there were only 125 new confirmed cases on March 2, lowest since data being published in January. Excluding the epicenter of Hubei province, there were only 11 news cases. Total accumulated cases stands at 8015. Death toll rose 31 to 2943.

              Outbreak elsewhere shows no signs of slowing,however. South Korea added 477 cases and total at 4812, with 6 new deaths to 34. Italy now stands at 2036, with 52 deaths. Iran stands at 1501, with 66 deaths. Japan is relatively steady at 274 with 6 deaths. Numbers in Europe are surging, however, with France at 191 and 3 deaths, Germany at 165 and Spain at 120. USA at 100 might soon take over Singapore’s 108. Hong Kong stands steady at 100.

              French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Monday that G7 countries will take “concerted action” to limit the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. He told France 2 television, “There will be a concerted action. Yesterday I spoke with the G7 president, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and this week we will have a meeting by phone of the finance G7 ministers to coordinate our responses.”

              ISM manufacturing dropped to 50.1, global supply chains impacting most sectors

                US ISM Manufacturing index dropped to 50.1 in February, down from 50.9, missed expectation of 50.5. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 14 reported growth. Looking at some details, new orders dropped -2.2 to 49.8, back in contraction. Production dropped sharply by -4.0 to 50.3. Employment rose 0.3 to 46.9, staying in contraction. Prices dropped sharply by -7.4 to 45.9.

                Timothy Fiore Chair of ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said: “Global supply chains are impacting most, if not all, of the manufacturing industry sector… Overall, sentiment this month is marginally positive regarding near-term growth”. ISM reading corresponds to 2.1% increase in real GDP on annualized basis.

                ECB de Guindo stands ready to act on coronavirus outbreak

                  ECB Vice President Luis de Guindo said today that policymakers “remain vigilant and will closely monitor all incoming data” to gauge the impact of the global coronavirus outbreak.

                  He repeated that “our forward guidance steers the orientation of our monetary policy.” That is, “in any case, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner.”

                  OECD slashes global growth forecast, coronavirus is not only a demand shock

                    In the interim report titled “Coronanvirus: the world economy at risk”, OECD warned that world is in its “most precarious position” since the 2008 global financial crisis. 2020 full-year growth forecasts is slashed from 2.9% to 2.4%, weakest since 2009.

                    OECD added that the outbreak “has already brought considerable human suffering and major economic disruption”. Growth prospects also “remain highly uncertain”. It also warned that if the situation worsens, “coordinated policy actions across all the major economies would be needed” for health care and economic stimulus.

                    OECD chief economist Laurence Boone said however, noted that “it’s not only a demand shock, it’s a confidence shock and supply chain disruption shock that central banks could not deal with alone.” She added, “confidence is falling everywhere so you don’t want to send a reactionary message, but at least a message that you are discussing and being prepared to take measures, and to do that jointly.”

                    Full blog post here.

                    UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 51.7, supply-chain disruptions emerging rapidly

                      UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 51.7 in February, up from January’s 50.0. Markit noted that output rose at the fastest pace since April 2019. Vendor lead times lengthened as supply-china disruption rose.

                      Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey: “Supply-chain disruptions were emerging rapidly, however, as the COVID-19 outbreak led to a substantial lengthening of supplier lead times, raw material shortages, reduced inventories of inputs, rising input costs and reduced export orders from Asia and China in particular… With supply-chain headwinds rising, and trade negotiations with the EU starting, it remains to be seen whether the recovery can stay on course during the coming months.”

                      Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.2, encouraging signs despite coronavirus risks

                        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.2 in February, up from January’s 47.9. Markit noted that output and new orders declined at slower rates. Average lead times lengthened market as firms utilized inventories. Looking at the member states, readings in France (49.8), Italy (48.7) and Germany (47.8) remained in contraction. Though, Greece hit 10-month high at 56.2 and the Netherlands hit 13-month high at 52.9.

                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “February saw encouraging signs that the eurozone’s manufacturing downturn is easing. Production contracted at the slowest rate for nearly a year and, despite lost export sales, new orders fell at the weakest rate for 15 months amid signs of rising internal demand, notably from consumers.”

                        But he warned that “any further spreading of the COVID-19 epidemic risks driving increased risk aversion and a reduction of spending by both businesses and consumers.”

                         

                        ECB Villeroy: We’re not there yet for more action to support coronavirus affected economy

                          ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that the central bank is prepared to act to support the economy if needed due to impact of coronavirus outbreak. However, the current policy is already accommodative, and ECB has already committed to support the economy through keep interest rates low. He added that “we are not there yet” regarding additional stimulus.

                          Separately, EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton said European tourism industry would suggest EUR 1B loss in revenue per month due to the outbreak. He said, “Chinese tourists are not coming to Europe since January. It means two million nights lost. That is one billion euros per month since January.”

                          China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 40.5, supply and demand sides both weak

                            China’s Caixin PMI Manufacturing dropped to 40.5 in February, down form 51.1, missed expectation of 45.7. That’s a record low since survey began in April 2004. Markit noted record falls in output, new orders and employment. Travel restrictions led to sharp deterioration in supply chains. But business confidence rose on hopes of output recovering.

                            Zhengsheng Zhong, Chairman and Chief Economist at CEBM Group said: “The sharp decline was due to stagnant economic activity across the country disrupted by the pneumonia epidemic caused by a novel coronavirus. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing sector were both weak.”

                            Released over the weekend, official NBS PMI Manufacturing dropped to 35.7 in February, down from 50.0, worst on record. PMI Non-Manufacturing dropped to 29.6, down from 54.1, lowest since November 2011.

                            Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.8, near term prospect very bleak

                              Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 47.8 in February, down from 48.8 in January. Markit noted that company cut production as demand deteriorates markedly. Supply chains were also adversely impacted by the coronavirus outbreak. Output growth expectations also weakened.

                              Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, said: Near-term prospects for industrial sector appear “very bleak”. “Consumer, intermediate and capital goods producers recorded faster declines in demand and overall order books fell at the sharpest rate in over seven years”. The manufacturing recession “goes much deeper” than the coronavirus outbreak, but lower sales in China “further woes to an already-fragile external environment.”.

                              Also from Japan, capital spending dropped -3.5% in Q4, below expectation of -2.5%.

                              Australia manufacturing in worst contraction in five years, coronavirus disruption deepens slowdown

                                Australian AiG Performance of Manufacturing index dropped to 44.3 in February, down from 45.4. That’s the fourth straight months of contraction in the manufacturing sector, last occurred back in 2014. It’s also the lowest monthly reading in nearly five years. All sectors were in contraction except for food & beverages.

                                Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox warned, “The disruptive effects of the coronavirus, including on supply chains, are deepening and adding to the slowdown that has been in train since the closing months of 2019… The coronavirus is negatively impacting the exports of fast-moving consumable items to China and a number of businesses reported supply chain difficulties arising from factory shutdowns in China.”

                                TD securities inflation gauge dropped -0.1% mom in February. Company gross operating profits dropped -3.5% qoq in Q4 versus expectation of -1.2% qoq.

                                BoJ Kuroda suggests no imminent easing in emergency statement

                                  BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda issued a rare emergency statement today, warning of the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus. He said, “Overseas and domestic financial markets continue to make unstable movements due to heightening uncertainty over the impact on the economy from the spread of the coronavirus. The BOJ will monitor developments carefully, and strive to stabilize markets and offer sufficient liquidity via market operations and asset purchases.”

                                  The statement argues that BoJ would use the current tools to counter the impact of coronavirus outbreak first. That is, focuses will be on market operations and liquidity. Apparently, further monetary easing is not seen as an imminent step that BoJ would take.

                                  Global coronavirus cases surge, China’s slowing, Yuan rebounds

                                    Global spread of China’s Wuhan coronavirus continued to intensify over the weekend. Total number of cases outside China reached 9051 with 141 deaths. Situation in South Korea remains the worse, with 4212 cases and 22 deaths. Italy reported 1701 cases with 41 deaths. Iran’s cases also jumped to 978 with 54 deaths.

                                    Contagion to other European countries is also increasing, in particular to France (130 cases, deaths), Germany (130 cases) and Spain (84 cases). Japan (256 cases), Singapore (106 cases) and Hong Kong (100 cases) are relatively steady.

                                    On the other hand, China’s own news cases continued to slow, with 573 new cases and 35 new deaths on February 29, 202 new cases and 42 new deaths on March 1. As of end of yesterday, there are an accumulated total of 80026 confirmed cases and 2912 deaths.

                                    Chinese Yuan is extending last week’s rebound, partly as situation in China eased, and partly on weakness on Dollar. USD/CNH’s decline from 7.0562 suggests that rebound from 6.8452 has completed, ahead of 7.0867 resistance. Focus is now on 6.9571 support. Break there will confirm this case and bring deeper decline through 06.8452 to resume whole corrective fall from 7.1953.

                                    Fed Bullard: Rate cut a possibility if global pandemic develops

                                      St. Louis Fed President James Bullard warned that “further policy rate cuts are a possibility if a global pandemic actually develops with health effects approaching the scale of ordinary influenza”. However, ” this is not the baseline case at this time.” FOMC is “in a good position in early 2020 as we closely monitor the evolving coronavirus impact on the global economy.”

                                      Bullard said there will be a noticeable impact of China’s Q1 GDP growth due to the coronavirus outbreak. Impact to other countries will be on a smaller scale. He added, “temporary disruptions to global supply chains are likely to have ripple effects across the global economy.”

                                      Meanwhile, “experience with previous viral outbreaks suggests that the effects on U.S. interest rates are tangible and last until the outbreak is clearly contained.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Canada GDP rose 0.3% in Dec, above expectation of 0.1%

                                        Canada GDP rose 0.3% mom in December, beat expectation of 0.1% mom. Growth is recorded in 15 of 20 industrial sectors. Both goods-producing and services-producing industries expanded, led by rebounds in transportation and warehousing and in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector. Also released, RMPI dropped -2.2% in January versus expectation of 2.1%. IPPI dropped -0.3% versus expectation of 0.1%.

                                        US personal income rose 0.6%, spending rose 0.2%, PCE and core PCE accelerated

                                          US personal income rose strongly by 0.6% in January, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Spending, however, rose 0.2%, missed expectation of 0.3%. Headline PCE accelerated to 1.7% yoy, up from 1.5% yoy, matched expectations. Core PCE also accelerated to 1.6% yoy, up from 1.5% yoy, but missed expectation of 1.7% yoy.

                                          Goods trade deficit dropped -4.6% to USD -65.5B in January, smaller than expectation of USD -68.5B. Goods exports dropped USD -1.4B to USD -135.7B. Imports dropped USD -4.6B to USD 201.2B. Wholesale inventories dropped -0.2% in January versus expectation of -0.6% .