Chance of medium term bearish reversal in Dollar Index is quickly surging as markets are now very aggressive pricing in large rate cuts by Fed. As fed funds futures imply, there is 100% chance of a -50bps cut to 1.00-1.25% this month. More importantly, there is now 85.5% chance of at least one more cut to 0.75-1.00% after June FOMC meeting.
DXY dropped sharply again overnight to close at 97.36. 61.8% retracement of 96.35 to 99.91 at 97.71 was taken out decisively. And focus is now turned to 96.35 key support. Break there will confirm medium term topping at 99.91. Deeper fall should at least be seen to 38.2% retracement of 88.25 to 99.91 at 95.45. There is risk of further decline to 61.8% at 92.70, depending on the reactions fro 95.45.
RBA cut to 0.50% in response to global coronavirus outbreak, maintains easing bias
RBA cut cash rate by -25bps to 0.50% in an act to “support the economy as it responds to the global coronavirus outbreak.” It noted that global growth in H1 will be “lower than earlier expected” due to the coronavirus and it’s “too early to tell how persistent the effects” will be.
For Australian economy, the outbreak overseas is “having a significant effect”, particularly in “education and travel sectors”. The uncertainty is “likely to affect domestic spending too”. Q1 GDP is “likely to be noticeably weaker than earlier expected”. Though, once the coronavirus is contained, Australian economy is “expected to return to an improving trend”.
The outbreak is expected to “delay progress” towards full employment and inflation target. RBA maintains easing bias and “the Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further to support the Australian economy.”