Asian market plunged as coronavirus spreads quickly in Europe

    Asian markets recorded some wild move today, as global spread of coronavirus accelerated further over the weekend. stocks are in deep red, with, Nikkei down -5.5% currently. Hong Kong HSI is down -3.5%. China Shanghai SSE is down -2.4%. Singapore Strait Times is down -4.2%. Oil price plunges over -25% as additionally pressured by price-war fear. Gold’s reaction is relative limited, struggling to stay above 1700 handle. In the currency markets, Aussie leads Canadian and New Zealand lower. Yen, Euro and Swiss are the safe haven currencies that surge.

    Coronavirus in situation China, the origin of the global outbreak, continues to stabilize, with just 40 new cases and 22 deaths reported for Sunday. Total accumulated cases now stands at 80735, with 3119 deaths. New cases in South Korea also slowed some what, as total stands at 7382 with 53 deaths. Italy (7375 cases, 366 deaths) and Iran (6566 cases, 194 deaths) are quickly catching up and will likely surpass South Korea very soon.

    Situation in Europe is very worrying with 1209 cases in France, 1040 in Germany, 674 in Spain, 332 in Swiss, 278 in UK, 265 in the Netherlands, 203 in Sweden, 200 in Belgium, 176 in Norway, 104 in Austria. US, with 542 case, will be the next point of focus regarding the coronavirus spread.

    Hong Kong HSI gapped through 25995.15 structural support and hit as low as 25025.05 so far. Current down side momentum suggests that 24520.63 (2018 low) will likely be taken out soon to resume whole down trend from 33484.07 (2018 high). Next down side target will be 61.8% projection of 33484.07 to 24540.63 from 29174.92 at 23647.87. But we’d expect further fall, in the medium term, to 100% projection at 20231.48 at least.

    ECB staff to work form home on Monday as precautionary test

      ECB canceled most of its public events over the next month due to coronavirus outbreak in Europe. Also, it told most of its over 3500 staff to work from home on Monday, as a “precautionary” drill in case of shutdown.

      A spokesman said “the ECB has facilities in place for large scale remote working and Monday 9 March will serve as a precautionary test for the infrastructure but also for ECB staff in case such large scale usage of the facilities becomes necessary at some point.

      Still, the scheduled Governing Council meeting would go ahead as scheduled on Thursday.

      Canada employment grew 30.3k, unemployment rated edged up to 5.6%

        Canada employment grew 30.3k in February, above expectation of 10.5k. Unemployment rose to 5.6%, up from 5.5%, matched expectations. Trade deficit widened to CAD -1.47B in January, versus expectation of CAD -0.83B.

        US non-farm payroll grew 273k, wage growth matched expectations

          US non-farm payrolls rose 273k in February, well above expectation of 178k. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, down from 3.6%, as it continues to gyrate between 3.5-3.6% for the past six months. Participation rate remained unchanged at 63.4%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Also from the US, trade deficit narrowed to USD -45.3B in January versus expectation of USD -48.8B.

          Dollar breaks key support as markets corner Fed into another 75bps rate cut

            Dollar dives across the board as investors seem to be trying to corner Fed into another deep rate cut at March 18 meeting, or even before it. Fed funds futures are now pricing in 80.4% chance of -75bps cut to 0.25-0.50%. 10-year yield hits as low as 0.699 in European session and is currently trading at 0.774, down -0.141. 30-year yield hits as low as 1.274, currently at 1.362, down -0.183. Both are new record lows.

            EUR/USD finally takes out 1.1239 resistance decisively, confirming medium term bottoming at 1.0777. At this point, we’re seeing rise from there as a corrective move. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.0777 at 1.1456 next. Reaction there will reveal the chance of medium term bullish reversal.

            EU Hogan hopeful of a mini trade deal with US in coming weeks

              EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan said there were still difficult issues to overcome in trade negotiations with US. And, “there is a long list (of issues) on both sides that have been outstanding for many, many years. There is no scientific basis for any of these impediments.”

              He pointed out, “clearly there are regulations in respect of food safety and those issues, pathogen treatments, that we will not be in a position to change. Equally we are not asking Congress to change their regulations in some of the asks we are making of the United States.”

              Though, he’s still hopeful of reaching a mini trade deal with the US in the coming weeks. EU is still aiming to see industrial tariffs reduction as an outcome.

              German factory orders rose 5.5%, strongest since 2014

                Germany factory orders rose 5.5% mom in January well above expectation of 1.5% mom. It’s also the biggest monthly rise since July 2014. However, over the year, factory orders dropped -1.4% mom.

                Looking at some details, domestic orders rose 1.3% mom while foreign orders rose 10.5% mom. New orders from Eurozone were up 15.1% mom. New orders from other countries rose 7.8% mom.

                Full release here.

                 

                Markets see 100% chance of another 50bps Fed cut this month, Dollar index eyeing 96.35 key support

                  Dollar’s decline against Euro and Yen are extending as markets increased bets on another deep interest rate cut by Fed on March 18. According to fed fund futures, there is now 100% chance of -50bps cut in federal funds rate to 0.50-0.75%, with 16.1% chance of even a -75bps cut to 0.25-0.50%.

                  Dollar index is now eyeing 96.35 key support. Decisive break there will confirm medium term topping at 99.91. In that case, we’d view fall from 99.91 as correcting the up trend from 88.25. Deeper fall should at least be seen to 38.2% retracement of 88.25 to 99.91 at 95.45, with prospect of hitting as low as 61.8% retracement at 92.70.

                  Global coronavirus cases hit over 98000

                    Global spread of China’s Wuhan coronavirus continues to accelerate as it’s now affecting 90% countries and territories. Total infections reached 98424, with 3386 deaths. China’s increase in cases continue stabilize at low level, with 143 new cases yesterday to accumulated total of 80552. 30 new deaths were reported, bringing total to 3042.

                    South Korea remains the most affected country with 6284 cases and 40 deaths. Italy’s cases surged to 3858, with 148 deaths. Iran reported a total of 3513 cases with 108 deaths. Other countries are also catching up, including Germany (545 cases), France (423 cases, 7 deaths), Japan (364 cases, 6 deaths), Spain (282 cases, 3 deaths), USA (226 cases, 13 deaths), Switzerland (120 cases, 1 death), Singapore (117 cases), UK (116 cases, 1 death) and Hong Kong (105 cases). Sweden (94 cases), Norway (91 cases), (Netherlands 82 cases), will break 100 level soon.

                    WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged the world to pull out “all the stops” top slow the spread of the coronavirus. He said, “This is not a drill. This is not the time for giving up. This is not a time for excuses. This is a time for pulling out all the stops.” “Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans.” There is a global online petition calling for resignation of Tedros for breaking WHO’s political neutrality. More than 440k people have signed.

                    ADB: World to lose 0.4% GDP in worse case scenario of coronavirus

                      The Asian Development Bank warned that ongoing coronavirus outbreak will have a “significant impact on developing Asian economies”, through numerous channels, including “harp declines in domestic demand, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, and health effects”.

                      “There are many uncertainties about COVID-19, including its economic impact,” said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “This requires the use of multiple scenarios to provide a clearer picture of potential losses. We hope this analysis can support governments as they prepare clear and decisive responses to mitigate the human and economic impacts of this outbreak.”

                      In the “worse case” scenario, the world will lose USD 347B or -0.4% of GDP. China will lose USD 237B, or -1.7%B. Developing Asian excluding China will lose USD 42B or -0.5%.

                      Full release here.

                      BoC Poloz: Canada’s resilience could be seriously tested by COVID-19

                        BoC Governor Stephen Poloz warned in a speech yesterday that the economy’s “resilience” could be “seriously tested by COVID-19”, depending on the “severity and duration of its effects”. Global economy will, “at the very least, be significantly disrupted” by the coronavirus in H1. Consumer and business confidence “could be set back for a longer period of time”, causing growth to “slow more persistently”.

                        He added that monetary policy can contribute in the current situation by “buffering their effects on consumer and business confidence, thereby helping the economy bridge the situation.” And, “this contribution can be especially powerful when the shock is global and the response is coordinated.” BoC lowered interest rate by -50bps on Wednesday, following the same move by Fed on Tuesday.

                        Poloz also reiterated that “Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required”. And, “we continue to closely monitor economic and financial conditions, in close coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities.”

                        Fed Williams: Coronavirus poses evolving risks to the economy

                          New York Fed President John Williams said the outbreak and subsequent spread of the coronavirus “has brought with it new risks to the economic outlook”. “Repercussions” have been “especially strong” in hardest-hit countries, including China, South Korea, Japan, Italy, and Iran. In the US, there were also reports of “supply disruptions and weakening demand” and concerns around tourism and travel sectors, in particular.

                          Fed’s -50bps rate cut this week was “strong policy action” that provides “meaningful support to the economy and will help sustain the economic expansion. But “the outlook is evolving and highly uncertain”. He added, “in the weeks and months ahead, we will continue to closely monitor developments and their implications for the economic outlook.”

                          He also noted Fed is monitoring conditions in the money markets closely. “We remain flexible and ready to make adjustments to our operations as needed to ensure that monetary policy is effectively implemented and transmitted to financial markets and the broader economy.”

                          Fed Kaplan: It’s wise to act boldly on coronavirus epidemic

                            Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan hailed Fed’s emergency rate cut this week to counter the impact of coronavirus epidemic. He told Chicago Council on Global Affairs “it’s wise to act sooner, more boldly, and it increases the likelihood that we’ll need to use less policy ammunition” later on.

                            Separately, he told Bloomberg, “a week is an eternity”, regarding what Fed would do in the upcoming March meeting. “I am going to be watching very, very carefully the path of diagnosed cases,” Kaplan said. “We’re just going to have to see what the actual developments are over the next 10 days, two weeks. That will be a key factor, yes, I will be using to judge what’s appropriate and whether we can wait longer.”

                            Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also said it was “prudent” for Fed’s -50bps rate cut. He added, “this was insurance that we took out because nobody knows how bad the virus is going to be. If everybody pulls back at the same time, that in itself can lead to a recession,” he added.

                            Serious divergences between EU and UK for post Brexit relationships

                              EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned that there are “serious divergences” with the UK, after ending the first week of negotiations on post Brexit relationship. The talks were held in a “constructive spirit” but in a “demanding context”.

                              In particular, he pointed four areas that are at odds, including competition policy, cooperation in criminal justice matters, control of U.K. fishing waters, and on the way any deal would be structured.

                              Nevertheless, Barnier remained hopeful as “there are many serious divergences, an agreement is possible — even if difficult.”

                              US initial jobless claims dropped to 216k, matched expectations

                                US initial jobless claims dropped -3k to 216k in the week ending February 29, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 3.25k to 213k.

                                Continuing claims rose 7k to 1.729m in the week ending February 22. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped-7.5k to 1.721m.

                                Full release here.

                                76% of UK firms expect Brexit uncertainty to persist until at least 2021

                                  BoE’s Monthly Decision Maker Panel report noted that “Businesses expect uncertainties around Brexit to take longer to be resolved than in the January survey.” 76% of businesses expected uncertainty to persist until at least 2021, sharply higher than 59% in January survey.

                                  Only 4% said they’re fully prepared for potential extra requirements for trading with EU. 38% were as ready as they can be, 31% partially prepared and 5% not prepared at all. 39% said increased tariffs is the most significant obstacles for trading with EU, 36% said restrictions on movement of people, 30% said custom declarations and checks.

                                  Full report here.

                                  BDI: German industrial sector to stay in recession this year

                                    Germany’s BDI industry group said in a report today that “the industrial sector is likely to remain in recession” this year. That would be the “longest since reunification” in 1990.

                                    It added, “With the production slumps in China and the quarantine measures taken by individual countries, it is becoming clear how vulnerable the export-oriented and internationally organized German economy is.”

                                    Separately, VDMA engineering association economist Ralph Wiechers also said, “we have to expect disruptions along the supply chain from China to Germany.”

                                    Italy to spend EUR 5B on coronavirus support

                                      Deputy Economy Minister Laura Castelli indicated that the government will likely raise coronavirus support spending to EUR 5B. She added that it’s “necessary to raise the bar as much as possible, also considering the fact that Italy has registered a lower than expected deficit”.

                                      Economy Minister has promised fiscal stimulus of EUR 3.6B, including tax break and other measures. But that seems insufficient since Italy is now the third country that’s most affected by coronavirus pandemic, with 3089 cases and 107 deaths. Measures could include supporting parents to stay home to take care of their children, increase in healthcare funding and temporary redundancy benefits.

                                      It’s believed that the government is also considering to ask for a temporary suspension of EU’s European Stability and Growth Pact, which limits the country’s spending. Rome announced to close all schools and universities yesterday to control the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus.

                                      IMF: Global growth in 2020 will be lower than 2.9%

                                        IMF announced a USD 50B aid package for low-income and emerging market countries, to help combat the impact of the Wuhan coronavirus global outbreak. USD 10B in rapid-disbursing emergency financing is available for low-income countries. The rapid financing instrument will provide USD 50B for emerging markets.

                                        Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said global growth in 2020 will “dip below” 2.9% for 2019. That is, at least 0.4% worse than 3.3% growth projection for 2020 as estimated in January. She warned that “how far it will fall and how long the impact will be is still difficult to predict”.

                                        Bullard: Fed positioned for a fairly large coronavirus outbreak already

                                          St. Louis Fed President James Bullard risks “obviously are rising” that the coronavirus could be “more severe” than expected. Fed policymakers “made the best judgement we could” regarding this week’s surprise -50bps rate cut. He said Fed is now “positioned for a fairly large outbreak…across a large swath of the population.”

                                          As for another rate cut in the scheduled meeting less than two weeks away, Bullard didn’t want to “prejudge” what will happen there. ” It’s a very fluid situation and we are keeping track of things,” he said. “We can keep our options open there.”

                                          Bullard also said it would be very difficult to prepare the new economic forecasts for the March meeting. “We are going to have very wide confidence bands around those” forecasts, he said. “It continues to be a volatile environment and we continue to be very cognizant of how the virus is evolving and how this is effecting the economy. We are tracking this day by day.”