SNB stands pat at -0.75%, expects negative inflation and growth this year

    SNB kept sign deposit rate unchanged at -0.75% today. It noted that coronavirus is posing “exceptionally large challengers” for Switzerland, and the expansionary monetary policy is “more necessary than ever” for ensuring appropriate monetary conditions. The central bank is “intervening more strong” in the FX markets to stabilize the situation. Both negative interest and interventions are “necessary to reduce the attractiveness of Swiss franc investments”.

    Additionally, SNB is raising the exemption threshold as of April 2020 to reduce the negative interest burden on the banking system. The threshold factors will increase from 25 to 30. It’s also examining whether a “relaxation of countercyclical buffer” would be possible.

    New conditional inflation forecast is lowered primarily due to “lower oil prices, significantly weaker growth prospects and stronger Swiss franc”. Inflation is expected to be in slightly negative territory at -0.3% this year, turned slightly positive to 0.3% in 2021, then rise to 0.7% in 2022. Growth is “likely to be negative” for 2020 as a whole.

    Full release here.

    ECB wins European praises as Italian yields fall too

      ECB’s massive EUR 750B Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme announced overnight won praises from top European politicians. French President Emmanuel Macron said he gives “full support for the exceptional measures taken this evening by the ECB.” He added,”it is now up to us, the European states, to step up to the plate via our budgetary interventions and to show a bigger financial solidarity at the heart of the euro zone.”

      Also from France, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said “The plan that the European Central Bank announced is the right one… It’s a massive plan because it foresees 750 billion euros ($813 billion) in asset purchases, it will have a strong economic impact because it will allow companies to be better financed and it will have a major political impact, it will reduce the risk of fragmentation in the euro zone.”

      Germany’s Economy Minister Peter Altmaier also said, “I hope these measures will also make it clear to the stock markets, to the markets today that Europe will protect its interests and Europe is determined to overcome this crisis”.

      The steep fall in Italian bond yield today is also a strong vote of confidence for the ECB. 10-year yield hit as high as 2.961 yesterday but it’s now back at around 1.6.

      RBA cuts rate to 0.25%, starts government bond purchases

        RBA announces a package of coronavirus response today. Firstly, cash rate is cut by 25bps to 0.25%. Additionally, the central bank will start purchases of government bonds to keep 3 year yield at around 0.25%, starting tomorrow. A three-year funding facility will also be set up to provide credit support to small and medium-sized businesses. Lastly, exchange settlement balances will be remunerated at 10 basis points, instead of zero.

        The central said, “the various elements of this package reinforce one another and will help to lower funding costs across the economy and support the provision of credit, especially to small and medium-sized businesses.” “Today’s policy package from the Reserve Bank complements the welcome fiscal response from governments in Australia. Together, these measures will support jobs, incomes and businesses through this difficult period and they will also assist the Australian economy in the recovery.”

        Full statement here.

        Fed Kashkari: Coronavirus impacts potentially even worse than financial crisis

          Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari “how the virus progresses is really going to determine what the ultimate economic impact is”. He’s rather pessimistic, noting “it unfortunately could be devastating, like the financial crisis, or potentially even worse.”

          Meanwhile, he told the Congress that “speed is of the essence here”. “Whatever Congress is going to do, the faster they can do it, and the more aggressively they can do it, the more people we can help.”

          US passed second coronavirus response package, more to come

            US Senate passed the second major coronavirus response bill overnight, which include paid sick leave, food assistance and financial help for coronavirus testeing. President Donald Trump quickly signed the measure hourse after the vote. Republican and Democratic leaders are already working on the third proposal.

            Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, after passing the vote, “the Senate’s going to stay in session until we finish phase three, the next bill, and send it over to the House.” He said he couldn’t predict when a bill will be ready for a vote, but “we are moving rapidly because the situation demands it.”

            ECB launches EUR 750B Pandemic Emergency Purchase, will considering lifting self-impose limits

              In a unexpected move, ECB announced a massive EUR 750B Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). The temporary program is for countering the “serious risks to monetary policy transmission mechanism” and the economy outlook posed by “outbreak and escalating diffusion” of the coronavirus. Purchases of private and public sector securities will be conducted until the end of 2020, including all asset categories under the existing APP.

              ECB Governing Council pledged to “ensure that all sectors of the economy can benefit from the supportive financing conditions that enable them to absorb this shock”. Also, it’s “fully prepared to increase the size” of the purchases and adjust the composition, “by as much as necessary and for as long as needed”. The central bank will also consider to revise the “self-imposed limits” that might hamper its actions.

              “Extraordinary times require extraordinary action,” ECB President Christine Lagarde said. “There are no limits to our commitment to the euro. We are determined to use the full potential of our tools, within our mandate.”

              Euro recovers mildly against Dollar and Yen after the unexpected announcement. But upside is so far limited.

              US oil inventories rose 2.0m barrels, WTI weak after breaking key support

                US commercial crude oil inventories rose 2.0m barrels in the week ending March 13, below expectation 3.5m barrels. At 453.7m barrels, inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.

                WTI crude oil break through 27.69/50 key support level today and stays weak after the release. Near term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 36.54 resistance. WTI should be taking long term support zone between 10.65 and 17.12 made between 1998/2001.

                Canada CPI slowed to 2.2%, impact of coronavirus to be more deeply felt in subsequent months

                  Canada CPI slowed to 2.2% yoy in February, down from 2.4% yoy, but beat expectation of 2.1% yoy. CPI common was unchanged at 1.8% yoy, matched expectations. CPI median slowed to 2.1% yoy, down from 2.2% yoy, missed expectation of 2.2% yoy. CPI trimmed slowed to 2.0% yoy, down from 2.1% yoy, missed expectation of 2.1% yoy.

                  Statistics Canada commented on the impact of coronavirus on CPI. Flight suspensions, travel advisories and cancellations of public evens may leader to lower prices for trave services. Crude oil prices tumbled due to slow down in activity and travel, as well as tensions between oil-producing nations. Also, there are supply chain disruptions, closure of stores and services, lower interest rates and slowing of economic activity. “The price effects of the outbreak could be more deeply felt in subsequent months.”

                  Full release here.

                  ECB reiterates readiness to adjust policy after communication chaos

                    ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel told German news paper Die Zeit that the central bank is “ready to do everything in its mandate to counter market turmoil that disrupts monetary policy transmission, otherwise monetary policy cannot function,””. But she also cautioned against overestimating the power of central banks, and emphasized monetary policy alone could not solve the problem of coronavirus pandemic.

                    Italy’s 10-year benchmark yield spiked to as high as 2.983 earlier today, on comments from Austrian central bank head Robert Holzmann that ECB’s policy was at its limit. Additionally, Italy is the most serious epicenter of the pandemic in Europe. Holzmann’s comments problem and ECB official response, saying that the March 12 decision was unanimous and it stands ready to adjust all of its measures. Holzmann himself later also clarified that “Monetary policy has not yet reached its limits, not by a long stretch.”

                    Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.2%, services the biggest contributor

                      Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.2% yoy in February, slowed from 1.4% yoy. The largest contribution came from services (+0.72%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.41%), non-energy industrial goods (+0.13%) and energy (-0.03%).

                      EU27 CPI was finalized at 1.6% yoy, down from 1.7% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Italy (0.2%), Greece (0.4%) and Portugal (0.5%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (4.4%), Poland (4.1%) and Czechia (3.7%). Compared with January, annual inflation fell in twenty-one Member States, remained stable in one and rose in five.

                      Full release here.

                      EU to close external borders for 30 days to slow coronavirus spread

                        EU leaders agreed overnight to close the external borders for 30 days to slow the spread of coronavirus pandemic. All non-EU citizens are not allowed to enter EU. But movements within EU are allowed. Also, the restrictions do not apply to medical staff nor goods. The restrictions will take effect as soon as individual governments take the necessary internal measure.

                        “The enemy is the virus and now we have to do our utmost to protect our people and to protect our economies,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. “We are ready to do everything that is required. We will not hesitate to take additional measures as the situation evolves.”

                        European Council President Charles Michel pledge that “the union and its member states will do whatever it takes”, and EU will arrange for the repatriation of citizens of member countries.

                        Fed Bostic: Everything is on the table at this stage

                          Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said work continues at the Fed and “at this stage everything is on the table” regarding coronavirus responses. He warned that the challenges are going to be “acute and are going to come fast,” for restaurants, bars and other small firms.

                          Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said the current coronavirus outbreak “in some ways is the proverbial black swan.” “The suffering and fear that is across the world, not just in this country, it’s palpable, it’s real.” He urged central banks to do what they can to stimulate the economy and keep markets functioning.

                          Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Fed is “not at the front line” of the fight against coronavirus. He added, “but we do have a job to do and we are using our tools aggressively to try to make sure the financial system is ultimately working.” He also rejected the idea that Fed could save the rate cuts for later use. “The notion that we should save our cuts for later is a colorful metaphor, but it’s just flat-out wrong.” Meanwhile, he said “I don’t think there’s much interest in going below zero.”

                          US to spend $1.2T on coronavirus relief, DOW recovered slightly by 5%

                            US stocks rebounded slightly overnight as investors responded to the administration’s coronavirus stimulus package, that could add up to USD 1.2T in spending. USD 1000 checks will be made available to Americans as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, “Americans need cash now, and the president wants to give cash now. And I mean now, in the next two weeks.”

                            Mnuchin’s proposal is reported to include USD 300B for small business loans, USD 200B in stabilization funds, USD 250B in cash payments with possibility of second round, as well as tax deferrals. He said, “It is a big number. This is a very big situation in this economy, we put a proposal on the table that would inject $1 trillion into the economy.”

                            DOW ended up 1048.86 pts or 5.20%. S&P 500 rose 6.00%. NASDAQ rose 6.23%. Despite the recovery, there is no confirmation of bottoming in DOW yet. We’re seeing 23189.76 as the key near term resistance to overcome. As long as it holds, further decline remains in favor for the near term, before DOW finds a bottom.

                            US retail sales dropped -0.5% mom, ex-auto sales dropped -0.4% mom

                              US retail sales dropped -0.5% mom to USD 528.1B in February, much worse than expectation of 0.2% mom  rise. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.4% mom, versus expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-gasoline sales dropped -0.3% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales dropped -0.2% mom.

                              Full release here.

                              German ZEW dropped -58.2 pts to -49.5, largest fall on record

                                German ZEW economic sentiment dropped sharply from 8.7 to -49.5 in March, way worse than expectation of -23.4. The -58.2 pts decline was the largest since the survey started back in December 1991. That’s also the lowest since 2008 financial crisis. Current situation index dropped to -43.1, down from -15.7, missed expectation of -25.0. For Eurozone, ZEW economic sentiment dropped -59.9 pts to -49.5. Current situation index dropped -38.2 to -48.5.

                                “The economy is on red alert. The financial market experts currently expect to see a decline in real gross domestic product in the first quarter, while also considering a further drop in the second quarter to be very likely. For the whole of 2020, the majority of experts currently expect a decline in real GDP growth of approximately one percentage point as a result of the corona pandemic,” comments ZEW President Achim Wambach.

                                Full release here.

                                UK OBR: Coronavirus is like a wartime situation

                                  Robert Chote, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, said to the UK parliament that the government needs to unveil a big stimulus package that will help all businesses to counter the coronavirus impact.

                                  He noted, “the lesson of earlier crises is that one sector’s problems in a situation like this quickly become every other sector’s problems.” Also, “this is not a time to be squeamish about one off additions to public sector debt. It’s more like a wartime situation,” he added.

                                  Sir Charlie Bean, OBR member and former BoE deputy governor, said coronavirus hit “ought to be different from the financial crisis. ” “There isn’t a fundamental structural problem in the economy that needs correcting, at least in the most part.”

                                  UK unemployment rate edged higher to 3.9%, wage growth mixed

                                    UK unemployment rose to 3.9% in the three months to January, slightly above expectation of staying at 3.8%. Average earnings excluding bonus grew 3.1% 3moy, slowed form 3.2% and missed expectation of 3.3%. Average earnings including bonus, on the other hand, rose 3.1% 3moy, rose 2.9% and beat expectation of 3.0%.

                                    Full release here.

                                    RBA: Significant coronavirus effect on economy the more realistic scenario

                                      Minutes of March 3 RBA meeting noted that “it was becoming increasingly clear that COVID-19 would cause major disruption to economic activity around the world”. The recent outbreak outside of China ” raised the prospect of a broader and more extended disruption to the global economy”.

                                      The global development “was having a significant effect on the Australian economy, particularly in the education, transport and tourism sectors”. Uncertainty was also likely to “affect household spending and business investment in coming months.” Q1 GDP was likely to be “noticeably weaker than previously expected”.

                                      Board members have considered a “number of scenarios” regarding monetary policy response to coronavirus outbreak. If the outbreak would be contained in the very near future, “maximum effect” of further stimulus would be felt in the “recovery phase”. However, this scenarios was considered “very unlikely, with the more realistic scenario being that the outbreak would have a significant effect on the Australian economy.”

                                      RBA cut interest rate by 25bps to 0.50% at that meeting. Earlier on Monday, it indicated that there will be additional measures to be announced this coming Thursday. Markets generally expect another rate cut to bring the benchmark rate down to 0.25%.

                                      New Zealand launches NZD 12.1B fiscal stimulus to cushion coronavirus impacts

                                        New Zealand government announced a massive NZD 12.1B stimulus program to support the economy at the time of disruptions by coronavirus pandemic. That’s equivalent to 4% of the country’s GDP. The package includes NZD 2.8B in income support, NZD 5.1B in wage subsidy support, NZD 2.8B in business tax changes, NZD 500m support for aviation sector and NZD 600m boost for health services.

                                        Finance Minister Grant Robertson said the economy is expected to fall -1% by Q1 if 2021 if the package is implemented, better than -3% without the support. He also told the parliament that recession was “almost certain” in New Zealand”. “We will have an extended period of deficits and our debt as a country will have to substantially increase,” he added.

                                        BCC downgrades UK 2020 growth forecast to 0.8% on coronavirus impacts

                                          The British Chambers of Commerce downgraded UK 2020 growth forecast due to disruption caused by the impact of coronavirus. GDP is now projected to growth 0.8% in 2020, lowered from prior forecast of 1.0%. That would be the weakest full growth growth since 1992, outside of 2008/09 financial crisis. Growth is than projected to pick up to 1.4% in 2021 and 1.6% in 2022.

                                          Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at BCC, said: “Early evidence of disruption to supply chains and weakening in consumer demand and business activity could mean that even in the case of a temporary shock to the economy, there may be some long-term impact on economic output – particularly if significant action is needed to combat its spread.”

                                          Adam Marshall, Director General, added: “Coronavirus could further weaken an already stagnant UK economy, as many businesses are starting to report an impact on their cashflow and growth prospects. The Chancellor and the Bank of England have responded to the immediate challenge with measures to help firms hit by Coronavirus, and they must now ensure this support gets to businesses as quickly as possible.