Initial jobless claims from the US have never been so closely watched before. A massive spike in numbers and record jump are expected, as American are suffering heavy impact from coronavirus pandemic. Estimates currently range from 1 million to 4 millions news claims for the weekending March 21. These forecasts are more academic than anything because there is just no way to gauge the impact so far.

Additionally, today’s number might not be very representative. On the one hand, it could just be the tip of the iceberg with claims capped by how quickly they’re processed. A huge number isn’t more disastrous neither as the claims could be somewhat “front-loaded”. We won’t probably know the real picture after getting at least 4 to 6 weeks of data.

While DOW extends the corrective recovery form 18213.65 this week, it’s starting to feel heavy ahead of 38.2% retracement of 29658.57 to 18213.65 at 22551.11. We’d maintain the view that current rebound is, at best, just the second leg of the three wave corrective pattern from 29568.57. The strength of the rebound could reveal how deep the correction would turn out to be, eventually.

It’s reported that Senate Democrats and Republicans have finally reached an agreement of the USD 2T economic response package for coronavirus pandemic, after some unexpected jitters. No details were released yet but the package should include assistance to companies, cities and states. There will be checks to most Americans, with loans and aid for small business, unemployment insurance, tax deferrals etc. Senate vote could be held as soon as Wednesday, then followed by House vote.

DOW surged 2112.98 pts, or 11.37% overnight on optimism over the stimulus. After the biggest rise since 1933, DOW is back above 20000 handle at 20704.91. A short term bottom should be in place at 18213.65, on bullish convergence condition in hourly MACD. Stronger recovery could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 29568.57 to 18213.65 at 22551.22. Reactions from there would reveal some hints on the eventual depth of the fall from 29568.57.

US stocks surge sharply in early trading on optimism that politicians in US are close to getting a deal on another coronavirus stimulus package.

House speaker Nancy Pelosi told CNBC, “I think there is real optimism that we could get something done in the next few hours.” “Overarchingly, I think we are getting to a good place, if they stay there.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said “at last I believe we’re on the five-yard line. It has taken a lot of noise and a lot of rhetoric to get us here. Despite all of that we are very close.”

DOW is currently up from than 1400 pts or 7.6%, and it’s now flirting with 20000 handle again. But major focus for the near term is 20531.26 resistance. Break will confirm short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in hourly MACD. In that case, further rise could be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 29568.57 to 18213.65 at 22551.22.