Japan Tankan large manufacturing dropped to -8, worst since 2013

    Japan’s Tankan large manufacturing index dropped to -8 in Q1, down from 0.That’s the first negative reading in seven years, lowest since March 2013, and the fifth straight decline. Large manufacturing outlook dropped from 0 to -11. Large non-manufacturing index also dropped from 20 to 8 while outlook dropped from 18 to -1. Large all industry capex rose 1.8%, better than expectation of -1.1%.

    Also from Japan, PMI manufacturing was finalized at 44.8 in March, down from February’s 47.8. Manufacturing output contracted at the sharpest rate since aftermath of 2011 tsunami. Production volumes slumped at the fastest rate for almost nine years, with sharpest drop in demand since April 2011. Supply chain issues also intensified further.

    Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit said, “the cascading impact of COVID-19 on the global economy is diminishing the chances of a V-shaped recovery.”

    Australia AiG manufacturing surged to 53.7, somewhat surprising expansion

      Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index jumped to 53.7 in March, up from 44.3. The reading indicates a return to growth after four months of contraction in the sector.

      AiG said: “This somewhat surprising expansion – in the midst of the escalating COVID-19 pandemic and emerging recession – is almost entirely due to a huge surge in demand for manufactured food, groceries and personal care items, as shoppers stock up on processed food, toilet paper, cleaning products and other household essentials”.

      Also from Australia, building permits rose 19.9% mom in February, much higher than expectation of 4.5% mom.

      RBA Minutes: Very material contraction in economic activity across Q1, Q2 and potentially longer

        In the minutes of March 18 meeting, RBA said that Australia would likely experience a “very material contraction in economic activity, which would spread across the March and June quarters and potentially longer.”. The size of contraction would depend on the “extent of the social distancing requirements, and potential lockdowns” for containing the coronavirus. Also, there will be “significant job losses over the months ahead”. Economy is expected to recover following containment of the coronavirus, “but the timing of this was uncertain”.

        At the meeting, RBA decided to roll out a package a measures of four elements. Cash rate was lowered to 0.25%. Purchase of government bonds to keep 3-year yield at 0.25%. Launched a term funding facility to support credit to businesses, and adjustment of interest rate on ES balance held by financial institutions.

        Full minutes here.

        Fed Mester expects some really bad economic numbers, but it’s not a typical recession

          Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CNBC it’s “not unrealistic” to see some “really bad economic numbers” in terms of unemployment and economic activity declining. However, she added that the current downturn is “not a typical recession” as it happened in an otherwise healthy economy brought to a near standstill to fight the coronavirus.

          “Part of the goal now is to offer the kind of lending and making sure the financial markets stay liquid and making sure they stay on a firm foundation and then bridging people from the economy, which in February looked very good … so that when we get to the other side of this … the economy and economic activity can come back,” Mester said.

          “One of the things that makes us in a better spot than some other countries is that our banking system was strong coming into this,” she said. “One of the other actions the Fed has taken is to really encourage the banks to continue lending.”

          US consumer confidence dropped to 120, further declines sure to follow

            Conference Board US Consumer Confidence dropped to 120.0 in March, down from 132.6, but beat expectation of 115.1. Present Situation Index dropped from 169.3 to 167.7. Expectations Index, however, dropped sharply from 108.1 to 88.2.

            “Consumer confidence declined sharply in March due to a deterioration in the short-term outlook,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

            “The Present Situation Index remained relatively strong, reflective of an economy that was on solid footing, and prior to the recent surge in unemployment claims.

            “However, the intensification of COVID-19 and extreme volatility in the financial markets have increased uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and jobs. March’s decline in confidence is more in line with a severe contraction – rather than a temporary shock – and further declines are sure to follow.”

            Full release here.

            Canada GDP grew 0.1% in Jan, coronavirus to have significant effect in Mar onward

              Canada GDP grew 0.1% mom in January, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Growth was recorded in agriculture and forestry, construction, manufacturing, wholesale, finance and insurance, and public sector. Other sectors contracted including mining and oil and gas extraction, utilities, retail, and transportation and warehousing.

              Statistics Canada said also noted: “The pandemic will significantly affect economic activity in March and subsequent months. Since the beginning of March, flight suspensions and travel advisories have been announced and various public events have been cancelled or postponed. Crude oil prices have declined amid lower demand due to a slowdown in global economic activity and travel. Additionally, tensions between oil-producing nations are expected to lead to an increase in supply.

              Because of these factors, as well as supply chain disruptions for many types of goods, temporary closures of non-essential stores and service providers and the recent lowering of interest rates, the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak will be deeply felt in subsequent months.”

              Full release here.

              Eurozone CPI slowed to 0.7%, energy dropped -4.3%

                Eurozone CPI slowed to 0.7% yoy in March, down from 1.2% yoy, below expectation of 0.8% yoy. CPI core slowed to 1.0% yoy, down from 1.2% yoy, below expectation of 1.1% yoy. Looking at the main components, food, alcohol & tobacco rose 2.4% yoy, services rose 1.3% yoy, non-energy industrial goods rose 0.5% yoy. Energy dropped -4.3% yoy.

                Full release here.

                France consumption dropped -0.1% in Feb, CPI slowed to 0.6% in Mar

                  France household consumption expenditure on goods dropped -0.1% mom in February. Energy expenditure fell again (0.9%), manufactured good consumption rebounded (0.2%), driven by durable good purchases (1.4%) and food consumption was stable (0.0%).

                  All item CPI slowed to 0.6% yoy in March, down from 1.4%. HICP slowed to 0.7% yoy, down from 1.6% yoy. The sharp drop in inflation should result from a strong downturn in the prices of energy (-3.9% yoy) and manufactured products (-0.5% yoy) and a slowdown in services (1.0% yoy) and tobacco prices (13.8% yoy)..

                  UK Q4 GDP finalized at 0%, production dropped -0.7%

                    UK Q4 GDP was finalized at 0.0% qoq, 1.1% yoy. Service output rose 0.2% qoq, production output dropped -0.7% qoq, construction output dropped -0.1% qoq. Over the year, US economy grew 1.4% in 2020, up slightly from1.3% in 2018. Both were slowest since financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.

                    Full release here.

                    World Bank: China’s growth could be just 0.1% as EAP suffers significant economic pain

                      In a report released today, the World Bank projected 2020 growth in developing East Asia and Pacific to slow to just 2.1% in the base line scenario, and -0.5% in the lower case scenario. That’s a sharp deterioration from 5.8% growth in 2019. For China, growth could be at 2.3% in the baseline and 0.1% in the lower case scenario, down from 2019’s 6.1%.

                      The report said the region is witnessing an “unusual combination of disruptive and mutually reinforcing events.” “Significant economic pain seems unavoidable in all countries.” “Containment of the pandemic would allow for a sustained recovery in the region, although risks to the outlook from financial market stress would remain high.”

                      Full release here.

                      Japan: No state of emergency, no Tokyo lockdown, just don’t travel

                        Japan’s coronavirus outbreak remains relatively contained so far, but number of cases would likely break 2,000 handle this week. Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, insisted that there is no need to declare a state of emergency for now. He also warned of the “huge” impact on the economy with a lockdown of major cities like Tokyo and Osaka.

                        On the other hand, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi urged Japanese not to travel to 73 countries and regions, around a third of the world. “Level 3” travel warnings were issued against the US, Canada, China, South Korea, UK as well as many countries in Europe. Also, he indicated that the government will likely ban entry of non-Japanese nationals from the newly added countries, as with others.

                        A batch of February economic data was released today, but the pre-pandemic data carry little significance for now. Industrial production rose 0.4% mom, down from January’s 1.0% mom. Retail sales jumped 1.7% yoy, versus January’s -0.4% yoy. Unemployment rate was steady at 2.4%. Jobs-to-applicants ratio dropped slightly from 1.49 to 1.45.

                        New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -63.5, severe recession is guaranteed

                          New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence tumbled to -63.5 in March, down from -19.4, close to a record low. All sectors are in deep negative: Agriculture (-79.4), Construction (-67.6), Services (-66.5), Retail (-65.4), Manufacturing (-46.2). Activity Outlook also dropped from 12.0 to -26.7: Retail (-40.7), Services (-26.8), Agriculture (-26.5), Construction (-23.7), Manufacturing (-21.0).

                          ANZ said: “Times are grim. We’ve never seen such a broad economic shock strike with such ferocity. Firms are right to be alarmed. Both fiscal and policy are leaping into action but a severe recession is guaranteed… It’s going to get worse before it gets better, and firms know that. Rock-bottom confidence is the symptom, not the cause, of the woes in the New Zealand (and global) economy.”

                          Full release here.

                          China PMIs back in expansion, Yuan unmoved

                            China’s official NBS PMI Manufacturing rose to 52.0 in March, up from 35.7. NBS PMI Non-Manufacturing also rebounded to 52.3, up from 29.6. Both PMIs are back in expansion region. “As of March 25, the resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises was 96.6 per cent, an increase of 17.7 per cent from the survey results on February 25,” an NBS statement said. “We cannot say China’s economy has fully returned to normal levels based on a single month. We need to continue observing changes in the following months.”

                            USD/CNH has little reaction to the release as consolidation continues below 7.1649 temporary top. For now, rise from 6.8452 could still extend higher. But such rise is seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 7.1953. Hence, we’d expect strong resistance from 7.1953 to limit upside to start the third leg. Break of 7.0562 resistance turned support will be the first sign of near term reversal.

                            Trump: Coronavirus guidelines may toughen up a little bit

                              US continues to top the coronavirus cases chart with over 160k confirmed cases now (3165 deaths). President Donald Trump said that there were more than 1 million Americans tested, which is a milestone. He indicated that there were discussion in the White House regarding a national stay-at-home order. However, It’s “pretty unlikely, I would think, at this time”, as some parts of the country are “frankly not in trouble at all”. “The guidelines will be very much as they are, maybe even toughened up a little bit,” he also indicated.

                              Separately, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told G20 trade ministers that “over-dependence on other countries as a source of cheap medical products and supplies has created a strategic vulnerability to our economy”. “For the United States, we are encouraging diversification of supply chains and seeking to promote more manufacturing at home.”

                              Mnuchin: Liquidity from the coronavirus program will get through the next couple of months

                                A major component of the USD 2.2T coronavirus relief package approved by Congress last week is the USD 350B small business financing. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said today that the loans will be available starting on Friday, and the sign up would be “very, very easy”.

                                He expected that the program would cover around 50% of the private workforce. And, “if we run out of money, and this is a huge success, we will absolutely go back to Congress and ask for more money.”

                                Meanwhile, he said, “I expect that with all of this liquidity we’re putting into the economy to get through the next couple of months, when we reopen, we’ll be ready and the economy will surge back.”

                                German GCEE: 2020 GDP could shrink -4.5% in long U risk scenario

                                  In the report “The Economic Outlook in the Coronavirus Pandemic”, the German Council of Economic Experts (GCEE) presented three scenarios for the German economy in 2020 and 2021 due to coronavirus pandemic.

                                  In the “baseline scenario”, economic situation will “normalize over the summer”. GDP would contract by -2.8% in 2020. GDP growth would bounce back to 3.7% in 2021, driven by catch-up effects and a large carry-over effect.

                                  In the “risk scenario (pronounced V)”, “widespread stoppage of production” or “restrictive measures” would remain in place longer than planned. GDP could contract -5.4% annualized in H1. In 2021, growth could bounce back to 4.9% with “large carry-over effect of 1.1 percentage points”.

                                  In the “risk scenario (long U)”, coronavirus containment would “last beyond the summer” and “delay economic recovery until 2021”. Policy measures may not be enough to prevent “far-reaching damage” to the economy. Ultimately, there is a risk of “negative feedback loops” through the financial markets or the banking system. 2020 GDP could shrink -4.5% with a slow recovery of 1.0% in 2021.

                                  Full report here.

                                  Eurozone economic sentiment had record monthly decline, before most coronavirus containment measures

                                    Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped to 94.5 in March, down from 103.4. Industrial Confidence dropped form -6.2 to -10.8. Services Confidence dropped from 11.1 to -2.2. Consumer Confidence dropped from -6.6 to -11.6. Retail Trade Confidence dropped from -0.2 to -8.3. Even Construction Confidence dropped from 5.4. to 2.7.

                                    The strongest monthly decline in the ESI on record (since 1985) resulted from “slumping confidence among consumers and in all the business sectors”. The collapse was “particularly strong in services and retail trade”. Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI plummeted in Italy (-17.6) and Germany (-9.8), and fell significantly also in France (-4.9), the Netherlands (-4.0), and Spain (-3.4). Importantly, in many countries the vast majority of survey responses were collected before strict containment measures were enacted to combat the spread of the Corona virus.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Swiss KOF plunged to 92.9, a marked decline in growth rates in near future

                                      Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 92.9 in March, down from 101.8. KOF said, “the Swiss economy can be expected to see a marked decline in growth rates in the near future. This plunge of the Barometer reflects the first economic consequences of the accelerated spread of the Coronavirus.”

                                      The reading was “about as low as after the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc was abandoned in January 2015”. nevertheless, “its troughs at the time of the economic crisis in 2008/9 were still significantly lower”.

                                      Full release here.

                                      China cuts reverse repo rate to inject CNY 50B into banking system

                                        China’s central bank PBoC lowered interest rate on 7-day reverse repo by -20bps to 2.20% today to inject CNY 50B into the banking system. That’s firstly an unscheduled announcement, and secondly, the largest cut since 2015. Thirdly, the 7-day reverse rate is now its lowest on record.

                                        The cut signals that PBOC has entered “a stage with stronger counter-cyclical adjustment,” out of consideration of both domestic demand and global virus outbreak, Ma Jun, a PBOC adviser, said in a statement. “The PBOC doesn’t use its bullets all at once. China still has plenty of room in monetary policy.”

                                        Australia ASX 200 jumps 7% as government announces AUD 130B job keeper program

                                          Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced an unprecedented “AUD 1500 per fortnight job keeper allowance” to safeguards jobs during the coronavirus pandemic. As much as AUD 130B would be spent over six month. “Our job keeper plan sees every Australian worker the same, no matter what you earn,” he said. “If anyone falls on a hard time … we are all in this together.”

                                          Treasurer Josh Frydenberg warned, “the weeks gone have been tough but those to come will be even tougher”. “Today we go further … we are providing support to the Australian worker like never before. This payment will give working Australians the best chance of keeping their job and being connected to their employers.”

                                          The ASX 200 had the biggest one-day surge in decades, by 339ts or 7% to close at 5181. AUD/USD, however, has little reactions.