Fed keeps rate at 0-0.25%, maintains forward guidance, full statement

    Fed keeps federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% as widely expected. The forward guidance is unchanged too. “The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.”

    Full statement below.

    Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement

    The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

    The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health are inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. The disruptions to economic activity here and abroad have significantly affected financial conditions and have impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

    The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

    The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

    To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor market conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

    US GDP shrank -4.8% in Q1, worst since 2008

      US GDP contracted -4.8% annualized in Q1 slightly worse than expectation of -4.0% annualized. That’s the largest decline since 2008 and marked the formal start of a recession.

      Looking at some details, personal consumption expenditures dropped -7.6%. Gross private domestic investment dropped -5.6%. Exports of goods and services dropped -8.7% while imports dropped -15.3%> Government consumption expenditures and gross investment rose 0.7%.

      Price index for gross domestic purchases rose 1.6%. PCE price index rose 1.3%, slowed from 1.4%. PCE core price index rose 1.8%, up from 1.3%.

      Full release here.

      UK Raab: No intention of changing Brexit transition period

        UK Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said said today that the government’s “position is unchanged” regarding Brexit. That is, “the transition period ends on the 31st of December, that is enshrined in law.”

        He further told the parliament, “there is no intention of changing that and actually what we should do now … is focus on removing any additional uncertainty, doing a deal by the end of the year and allowing both the UK and the European Union and all of its member states to bounce back as we come through the coronavirus.”

        Eurozone economic sentiment crashed to 67, but stays above 2009 low

          Economic sentiment “crashed” in both Eurozone and EU in April. Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped -27.2 pts to 67.0. EU ESI dropped -28.8 pts to 65.8. These were the strongest decline in the ESI on record since 1985. The indicators are now far below their long run averages of 100 and very close to the lowest levels registered during the Great Recession in 2009.

          Industrial confidence dropped -19.2 to -30.4, steepest monthly fall on record, but remained above 2009 low. Services confidence dropped -32.7 pts to record low of -35.0. Consumer confidence dropped -11.1 to -22.7> retail trade confidence dropped -19.7 to -28.3. Employment expectations dropped -30.1 to 63.7.

          Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI crashed in the Netherlands(-32.6), Spain (-26.0), Germany (-19.9), and France (-16.3),2 while no data could be collected in Italy due to the strict confinement measures.

          Full release here.

          Dollar index range bound as US GDP and Fed awaited

            Two heavy weight events are scheduled for the US today. Firstly. Q1 GDP is expected to show -4.0% annualized contraction. That would be the steepest contraction since the Great Recession in 2009. Consumer spending has definitely suffered a big hit from the coronavirus lockdowns. Some focuses would be on business investments. Optimism was lifted just for a brief while by US-China trade agreement phase one, but then nose-dived on the pandemic.

            Fed is generally expected to keep monetary policies unchanged today. There will be no formal economic projections until June, which is agreeable as everything ties to how the coronavirus pandemic is contained. Nevertheless, Fed chair Jerome Powell could still offer a glimpse of what he expected in the second half, and he view on the shape of the recovery. Guidance on interest rates would be something to watch too. Powell has ruled out negative rates for now and we’ll see if he sticks to the same position.

            Suggested readings:

            While Dollar is performing rather poorly this week, the development in Dollar index isn’t that bad. That’s primarily due to indecisiveness in Euro, though. Technically, we’re seeing price actions from 102.99 as a corrective pattern, with the sideway pattern from 98.27 as the second leg. Firm break of 55 day EMA will confirm the start of the third leg towards 98.27 support. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 94.65 to 102.99 at 97.83 to contain downside and bring rebound.

            New Zealand imports and exports surged in March, but trade with China shrank

              New Zealand’s imports rose 7.7% yoy to NZD 5.1B in March while exports rose 3.8% yoy to NZD 5.8B. Trade surplus came in at NZD 672m, smaller than expectation of NZD 700m.

              Trade with its largest partner, China, continued to drop. Imports from China dropped -10% yoy to NZD 714m. Exports to China dropped -5.8% yoy to NZD 1.4B. Meanwhile, exports to Australia also dropped -8.9% yoy to NZD 738m. But exports to US rose 9.4% to NZD 623m. Exports to EU rose 8.2% yoy to NZD 595m. Exports to Japan also rose 22% yoy to NZD 352m.

               

              Full release here.

              Australia CPI jumped to 2.2% in Q1, highest since 2014

                Australia CPI rose 0.3% qoq in Q1, above expectation of 0.2% qoq. Annually, CPI accelerated to 2.2% yoy, up from 1.8% yoy, beat expectation of 2.0% yoy. The annual rate was also the highest level since Q3 of 2014. RBA trimmed mean CPI rose 0.5% qoq, slightly above expectation of 0.4% qoq. Annual rate also accelerated to 1.8% yoy, up from 1.6% yoy and beat expectation of 1.6% yoy.

                ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman said: “There were some price effects of COVID-19 apparent in the March quarter due to higher purchasing of certain products towards the end of the quarter, as restrictions came into effect… More evident effects of COVID-19 are expected in the June quarter CPI.”

                Full release here.

                Fitch downgrades Italy rating to BBB-, significant impact of coronavirus on economy and fiscal position

                  Fitch downgraded Italy’s credit rating to BBB- yesterday, down from BBB, with a stable outlook. The rating is now just a single notch above “junk level”. The agency said “the downgrade reflects the significant impact of the global Covid-19 pandemic on Italy’s economy and the sovereign’s fiscal position…. According to our baseline debt dynamics scenario, the [debt] to GDP ratio will only stabilise at this very high level over the medium term, underlining debt sustainability risks.”

                  Fitch also warned “downward pressure on the rating could resume if the government does not implement a credible economic growth and fiscal strategy that enhances confidence that general government debt/GDP will be placed on a downward path over time.”

                  Italian Finance Minister Roberto Gualtieri responded and said “the fundamentals of Italy’s economy and public finances are solid”.He added that Fitch’s move didn’t take into account the measures by EU. “In particular, the strategic orientation of the European Central Bank does not seem to be adequately valued.”

                  US consumer confidence dropped to 86.9, record drop in present situation

                    Conference Board US consumer confidence dropped to 86.9 in April, down from 118.8, below expectation of 90.1. Present situation index dropped from 166.7 to 76.4. Expectations index, however, improved from 86.8 to 93.8.

                    “Consumer confidence weakened significantly in April, driven by a severe deterioration in current conditions,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The 90-point drop in the Present Situation Index, the largest on record, reflects the sharp contraction in economic activity and surge in unemployment claims brought about by the COVID-19 crisis.

                    ” Consumers’ short-term expectations for the economy and labor market improved, likely prompted by the possibility that stay-at-home restrictions will loosen soon, along with a re-opening of the economy. However, consumers were less optimistic about their financial prospects and this could have repercussions for spending as the recovery takes hold. The uncertainty of the economic effects of COVID-19 will likely cause expectations to fluctuate in the months ahead.”

                    Full release here.

                    US trade deficit widened to USD 64.2B, both imports and exports dropped

                      US goods trade deficit widened 7.2% mom to USD 64.2B in March, up from February’s USD 59.9B. Exports of goods dropped USD -9.1B to USD 127.6B. Imports of goods dropped USD -4.8B to US 19.9B. Wholesales inventories dropped -1.0% mom to USD 650B.

                      Full release here.

                      UK CBI realized sales dropped to -55, record low

                        UK CBI realized sales dropped sharply form -3 to -55 in April, hitting a joint record low with December 2008. A net balance of -55% retailers reported decline in sales. They also expect a similar pace of decline in May, at balance of -54%, weakest expectations on record.

                        Rain Newton-Smith, CBI Chief Economist, said: “It’s no surprise that the lockdown is hitting retailers hard. Two fifths have shut up shop completely for now. And sales of groceries and other essentials also fell, suggesting households may have been dipping into stockpiles built up prior to the lockdown or tightening their belts more generally as incomes take a hit.”

                        Full release here.

                        Ifo: German economy to contract -6.6% this year

                          Ifo head of economic forecasts Timo Wollmershäuser said Germany’s GDP should have dropped by -1.9% in Q1 and would contract -12.2% in Q2. Overall, the economy is likely to shrink by -6.6% in this calendar adjusted year, or -6.2% when the large number of working days are taking into account.

                          Wollmershäuser adds: “We will only be back to the state before Corona at the end of 2021. Then as many goods and services will be produced as in a situation without a corona crisis. The gross domestic product will have to increase by 8.5 percent in 2021. ”

                          Also from Ifo, Germany’s employment barometer plunged to 86.3 in April, down from 93.4, hitting a new record low. All four sectorial employment barometer also deteriorated and turned negative (manufacturing from -18.3 to -28.6, services from -3.4 to -19.4, trade fro m-8.0 to -25.6, construction from 2.3 to -7.0.

                          BoJ Kuroda: Longer coronavirus pandemic could push up credit costs

                            BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament that there could be surge in credit costs if the coronavirus pandemic lasts longer than expected. But for now, the risk is low.

                            “If it takes longer than expected to contain the virus at home and abroad, that could hurt the economy and push up credit costs for financial institutions,” Kuroda said.

                            “The risk of this happening now isn’t big. But it’s something we need to be vigilant about. We’ll closely work with the Financial Services Agency on this matter.”

                            AUD/NZD surges as RBNZ forecasts to cut to -0.50% this year

                              New Zealand Dollar is having completely different fortunate comparing to Australian Dollar, even though the country is a step in the lockdown exit. Divergence on RBA and RBNZ policy expectations is a key driver in the comparative moves. Westpac said in a report last week that RBA target cash rate would stay at currently 0.25% level until end of 2023. On the other hand, Westpac said in another report today that RBNZ could cut interest rate to -0.50% by November.

                              Westpac expects a deeper decline in Q2 GDP by -16%, then followed by a stronger rebound of 13% in Q3. However, it said, “beyond the initial bounce we now expect the recovery phase will be slower, as it will take longer to overcome the damage done by unemployment and business failures”. Unemployment rate will peak at 9.5% followed by a “slow return” to below 5%.

                              It emphasized that “monetary policy not only needs to come to the party, it needs to spike the punch”. RBNZ is expected to double its QE to NZD 60B in May. OCR would be cut from current 0.25% to -0.50% in November. but the timing is uncertain.

                              AUD/NZD hits as high as 1.0745 so far as rebound from 0.9994 extends. Current rise is seen as the third leg of the long term sideway pattern from 1.0016. Further rise could be seen to 1.0865 resistance. Real test is from trend line resistance (now at 1.0894). Sustained break there would pave the way to 1.1676 key long term resistance. And in any case, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0476 support holds, in case of pull back.

                              NSW lockdown relaxation pushes Aussie higher, but key resistance in sight

                                Australian Dollar has been the strongest one for the week so far, as the country is heading towards relaxation of lockdown rules. New South Wales Premier Glady Berejiklian announced today that, starting Friday, groups of two adults and their children are allowed to visit other households for social gatherings. Bondi Beach and two neighboring beaches in Sydney were reopened to local residents on Tuesday after being closed a month ago.

                                While Aussie’s strength has been impressive, it’s partly skewed upward by the strong rebound in AUD/NZD. Meanwhile, some Aussie pairs are already close to key resistance levels. Hence, we’d be very alerted on topping signals for the near term. For example, AUD/JPY is now relatively close to near term cluster resistance at 69.95, 61.8% retracement of 76.54 to 59.89 at 70.17.

                                AUD/CAD is close to an even more important cluster resistance at 0.9105 (38.2% retracement of 1.0784 to 0.8066 at 0.9104. A near term set back should at least be due.

                                US stocks rose on talks of automakers reopenning

                                  US stocks closed higher overnight on optimism that coronavirus lockdown is going to end soon, partially at least. DOW rose 1.51%, S&P 500 gained 1.47% while NASDAQ added 1.11%. WSJ reported that General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler are targeting to resume some productions on May 18. The decision came after the executives’ meeting with United Auto Workers and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s office last week.

                                  None of the companies, nor Whitemer, confirmed the news. It’s should be just a matter of a week or two later when some sort of reopening should happen in less risky areas. Meanwhile, the severely impacted New York state is planning some reopening on May 15 too.

                                  DOW is back pressing 55 day EMA after the rally overnight. For now, we’re still seeing the rebound from 18213.65 as a corrective move. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 29568.57 to 18213.65 at 25230.99. Meanwhile, break of 22941.88 support should now be an indication of completion of the rebound, and turn near term outlook bearish again.

                                  Gold faces resistance from 1747, consolidation might extends

                                    While Dollar is under broad based pressure today, Gold hasn’t been performing very well neither. There’s strong resistance from 1747.75 short term top to limit upside for the moment, as gold retreated. Short term focus is on 4 hour 55 EMA.

                                    Break there would extend the consolidation from 1747.75 with another fall towards 1644.67 resistance turned support. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1451.16 to 1747.75 at 1634.45 to contain downside and bring rebound.

                                    Meanwhile, break of 1747.75 will extend larger up trend to 200% projection of 1046.37 to 1375.17 from 1160.17 at 1817.77 next.

                                    BoJ Kuroda: Removing bond-buying guidance clarified our intention to buy government bonds aggressively

                                      BoJ decided today to purchase JGBs to and T-bills “without setting an upper-limit” to keep 10-year JGB yields at around zero percent. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in the post meeting conference, “by removing the bond-buying guidance, we clarified our intention to buy government bonds aggressively without setting a limit.”

                                      “We will buy as many government bonds as necessary under YCC (yield curve control),” he said. “We’re buying government bonds as part of our monetary policy steps. But our measures and fiscal stimulus will also have a mutually reinforcing impact.” But he emphasized “we aren’t monetizing government debt.”

                                      On future policy changes, he emphasized “we won’t hesitate to take additional monetary easing steps if needed. As for future policy options, we can expand the size of our asset buying or market operations, as well as cut interest rates. We will choose the most appropriate option at the time. We won’t rule out interest rate cuts as a policy option.”

                                      On inflation, he said “I don’t think there’s a risk Japan will revert to deflation. But short-term inflation expectations are falling quite a bit, and those for the long term are also falling somewhat. This needs to be watched carefully.”

                                      BoJ: GDP to contract -5% to -3% in fiscal 2020, return to deflation

                                        In the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, BoJ said the economy is “likely to remain in severe situation for the time being” due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. GDP could shrink as much as -5.0% to -3.0% in fiscal 2020. Japan could also return to deflation with core CPI down -0.7 to -0.4%. BoJ added that “future developments are extremely unclear” and risks to both economic activity and prices are “skewed to the downside”.

                                        GDP growth forecast:

                                        • Fiscal 2019 at -0.4% to -0.1% (down from 0.8% to 0.9%).
                                        • Fiscal 2020 at -5.0 to -3.0% (down from (0.8 % to 1.1%).
                                        • Fiscal 2021 at 2.8% to 3.9% (up from 1.0% to 1.3%).
                                        • Fiscal 2020 at 0.8% to 1.6%.

                                        Core CPI forecast (excluding sales tax hike effects):

                                        • Fiscal 2019 at 0.4% (vs 0.4% to 0.5%).
                                        • Fiscal 2020 at -0.7% to -0.4% (down from 0.9% to 1.0%).
                                        • Fiscal 2021 at 0.0% to 0.7% (down from 1.2% to 1.6%).
                                        • Fiscal 2022 at 0.4% to 1.0%.

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoJ to purchase JGBs without setting an upper-limit

                                          BoJ announced further enhancement on monetary easing after shortening the two-day meeting to just three hours. Short term interest rate is held at -0.1%. Meanwhile, BoJ will purchase JGBs to and T-bills “without setting an upper-limit” to keep 10-year JGB yields at around zero percent.

                                          Other two measures include firstly, commercial papers and corporate bonds purchases upper limit is raised to JPY 20 trillion., with maximum maturity extended to 5 years. Secondly, the Special Funds-Supplying Operates to Facilitate Financing in response to the Novel Coronavirus will expand the range of eligible collateral, counter parities, with 0.1% positive interest rate applied.

                                          Full release here.