BoE: Coronavirus could have longer-lasting scarring effects on the economy

    In a report, BoE said “increased uncertainty, lower confidence and a tightening in financial and credit conditions can amplify the initial falls in spending and production” due to coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it.

    There could be ” longer-lasting ‘scarring’ effects on the economy” despite the efforts to ease the severity of the economic downturn. Meanwhile, the impact of the pandemic on inflation is “very uncertain”.

    Full report here.

    Separately, Chief Economist Andrew Haldane said “we’ve seen activity across the economy collapse, and we’ve seen a rapid rise in inactivity among workers – both people being made unemployed, but importantly … 8 million people underemployed due to furlough schemes”

    “That’s a level of inactivity in the jobs market we haven’t seen, possibly ever,” he added.

    Gold recovers after hitting 1670, but correction still in favor to extend lower

      Gold’s correction from 1765.25 extended to as low as 1670.66 last week, and met 100% projection of 1765.25 to 1693.54 from 1745.14 at 1673.5. But there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Decline from 1765.25 is still seen as correcting the whole rise from 1451.16. Further fall is expected as long as 1721.90 resistance holds. Break of 1670.66 will target 38.2% retracement of 1451.16 to 1765.25 at 1645.26 next. Nevertheless, break of 1721.90 will argue that the correction has completed and bring rebound to 1745.14/1765.25 resistance zone.

      ECB Lagarde: PEPP expansion essential in avoiding even deeper recession

        In the hearing at European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, ECB President Christine Lagarde said two main factors called for additional monetary policy announced at the last meet. They are the “deteriorating inflation outlook threatening our medium-term price stability objective and the unwarranted tightening of financial conditions.”

        Hence, the central bank decided to rise the amount of the PEPP by additional EUR 600B to EUR 1350B, extend the program until at least end of June 2021, and to reinvest maturing assets until at least end of 2022.

        She emphasized that the crisis-related measures are “temporary, targeted and proportionate”. And the measures “underscore the Governing Council’s continued determination and readiness to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner.”

        The PEPP expansion will “prove to have been essential in avoiding an even deeper recession and in quickening our pathway to normalisation”

        Full statement here.

        German industrial production plunged record -17.9%, economy ministry said low point was reached

          Germany industrial production plunged -17.9% mom in April, worse than expectation of -15.5% mom. That’s also a record decline, due to coronavirus pandemic and responding containment measures. Looking at some details, intermediate goods dropped -13.8% mom. Consumer goods dropped -8.7%. Capital goods dropped -35.5%. Automotive dropped -74.6%.

          Nevertheless, in response to the release, Economic Ministry said “The low point has been reached. With the gradual easing of protective measures and the resumption of production in the automotive industry, the economic recovery is beginning now.”

          Full release here.

          Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose to -24.8, An upswing but reversals not yet assured

            Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved to -24.8 in June. That’s the second straight month of rebound, from April’s -42.9 then May’s -41.8. Current situation index rose from -73.0 to -61.5. Expectations index jumped from -3.0 to 21.8, turned positive, and hit the highest level since November 2017.

            Sentix questioned: “But what do these numbers mean? Is there a “normal” upswing that will soon bring us back to a normal, good economic situation? To get a better understanding of these figures, we conducted a special survey among investors. We wanted to know how much of the economic slump caused by the Corona pandemic will be made up within a year. So where does the recovery go?!”

            They then added: “The result is likely to disappoint optimists. For the eurozone, investors expect that within a year, just over 50% of the slump can be made up. This means that in a year’s time we would still be noticeably below the pre-crisis level. And this despite all the stimulus measures, the fiscal packages and monetary easing. An upswing has begun, but a real trend reversal is not yet assured.”

            Full report here.

            Japan Nishimura: Efforts to stimulate consumption should wait a bit more

              Japan Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said in the an interview that it’s “premature to consider fiscal, monetary steps aimed at stimulating consumption as Japan is still focusing on containing coronavirus pandemic.” And, ‘what’s most important now is to protect jobs and help businesses survive the pandemic.”

              For now, “we’re not at a stage yet where we want to stimulate consumption and encourage people to travel a lot,” he added. “Efforts to stimulate consumption should wait a bit more”. Though, he’s relatively optimistic as “we’re already reopening business,” and “so the economy will probably hit bottom from April through mid-May,”

              Capital injection into companies should be “an area the government can handle”. BoJ should instead “plays its part in helping financial institutions meet corporate funding strains.”

              Japan GDP finalized at -0.6% qoq in Q1, capital spending unexpectedly grew

                Japan GDP contraction was finalized at -0.6% qoq in Q1, better than earlier estimate of -0.9% qoq, marginally missed expectation of -0.5% qoq. In annualized term, GDP contracted -2.2%, revised up from -3.4%. The upward revision was largely thanks to capital expenditure, which rose 1.9% qoq, reversing from a preliminary -0.5% qoq decline.

                The data, nevertheless, confirmed that Japan was already in recession, with -1.8% qoq, -7.1% annualized GDP contraction back in Q4. The slump is expected to deepen again in Q2 with coronavirus pandemic impacts. Another -9% annualized contraction could be seen in Q2, reflecting the worst economic crisis since WWII.

                Also released form Japan, current account surplus narrowed to JPY 0.25T in April versus expectation of JPY 0.33T. Bank lending rose 4.8% yoy in May versus expectation of 3.2% yoy.Japan

                China trade surplus widened to record USD 62.9B as both exports and imports plunged

                  In May, in US term, China’s exports dropped -3.3% yoy to USD 206.8B, better than expectation of -7.0% mom decline. Imports dropped -16.7% yoy to USD 143.9B, worst than expectation of -9.7% yoy. Trade surplus widened to USD 62.9B, up from USD 45.3B. That’s also a record monthly trade surplus, with much help from decline in prices of crud oil and commodities like soy beans.

                  Year-to May, total exports dropped -7.7% yoy to USD 885.0B. Total imports dropped -8.2% to USD 763.6B. Trade surplus for the first give months of the year was at USD 121.4B.

                  USD/CNH recovers mildly today but there is no sign of near term bottoming yet. Further decline is expected as long as 7.1333 minor resistance holds. Fall from 7.1961 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation form 7.1953. Break of 7.0523 support will pave the way to retest 6.8452/9040 support zone.

                  Limited progress made in Brexit negotiations

                    Little progress has been made regarding Brexit negotiations as UK and EU officials indicated.

                    UK chief negotiator, David Frost said, “progress remains limited but our talks have been positive in tone.” He added, “Negotiations will continue and we remain committed to a successful outcome. “We are close to reaching the limits of what we can achieve through the format of remote formal rounds,” Frost said. “If we are to make progress, it is clear that we must intensify and accelerate our work.”

                    EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said, “this week, there have been no significant areas of progress … We cannot go on like this for ever.”

                    Canada employment rose 290k in May, unemployment rate rose to record 13.7%

                      Canada employment grew 290k in May, well above expectation of -500k loss. That also represented a recovery 10.6% of the coronavirus related employment losses. Unemployment rate, however, rose to 13.7%, up from 13.0%, but better than expectation of 15.0%. That was the highest level on record too. Participation rate rose 1.6% to 61.4%, but stayed well below pre-coronavirus level of 65.5%.

                      Full release here.

                      US NFP grew 2.5m, unemployment rate dropped to 13.3%

                        US total non-farm payroll employment grew 2509k in May, well above expectation of -8000k decline. BLS said the improvements in the labor market reflected a “limited resumption of economic activity” curtailed in March and April due to coronavirus pandemic.

                        Unemployment rate dropped to 13.3%, down from 14.7%, beat expectation of 19.6%. Number of unemployed persons dropped -2.1m to 21.0m. Participation rate also rose 0.6% to 60.8%. Average hourly earnings, however, dropped -1.0% mom, below expectation of 0.7% mom.

                        Full release here.

                        ECB Lane: PEPP expansion proportionate to substantial downward revision of outlook

                          ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a blog post that the decision to expand the PEPP is “the proportionate response to the substantial downward revision of the economic and inflation outlooks and the significant deterioration in financial conditions”.

                          He added, “the incoming economic and financial data and future projection rounds will provide essential guidance as to whether the pandemic-related negative shock to inflation dynamics has been sufficiently contained.” “Once the negative pandemic shock has been successfully managed, the primary focus of monetary policy can return to its underlying strategic goal of robustly achieving our inflation aim over the medium term.”

                          Dollar index accelerating downward ahead of NFP

                            US non-farm payrolls report will be a major focus for today. Markets are expecting NFP to show another -8m job less in May. Unemployment rate is expected to jump further up from 14.7% to 19.6%. Other employment data were not too promising. ADP report showed -2.76m contraction in private sector jobs. ISM manufacturing employment improved to 31.8 while non-manufacturing employment rose to 32.1. But both were deep in contraction region. Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims also stayed huge at 2.28m.

                            Dollar index suffered another round of steep decline this week. Selling accelerated further after ECB announced to expand the PEPP yesterday. Technically, the strong break of 55 week EMA in DXY further affirm the case that whole rise form 88.2 (2018 low) has already completed at 102.99, ahead of 103.82 high (2016 high). Next defend zone is between 94.65 support and long term trend line at around 95.5. We’d look for support from there to bring a near term recovery.

                            UK GfK consumer confidence dropped to -36, lowest since 2009

                              UK GfK Consumer Confidence dropped to -36 in May, down from -34. That’s the lowest level since January 2009, and not far from record low of -39 touched in July 2008.

                              GfK’s client strategy director Joe Staton said: “with no sign of a rapid V-shaped bounce-back on the cards, consumers remain pessimistic about the state of their finances and the wider economic picture for the year to come”. Meanwhile, “as the lockdown eases, it will be interesting to see just how the consumer appetite for spending returns in a world of socially-distanced shopping and the seismic shift to online retailing.”

                              Australia performance of services rose to 31.6, muted optimism from easing restrictions

                                Australia AiG Performance of Services Index rose to 31.6 in May, up from 27.1. While the data indicates slower pace of contraction, it’s still the second lowest result on record. In trend term, the index dropped -3.4 pts to 30.8, with declines across all services sectors.

                                AiG also noted, “heavy restrictions on activity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have taken a large toll on most of Australia’s services industries… The recent easing of restrictions in some locations led to muted optimism for businesses who responded later in May.”

                                Full release here.

                                ECB Lagarde: Improvement in economic tepid comparing with the plummet

                                  In the post meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said economic data have shown some signs of a “bottoming-out” in the economy, alongside the gradual easing of coronavirus containment measures. But “the improvement has so far been tepid compared with the speed at which the indicators plummeted in the preceding two months.”

                                  In the baseline scenario of new economic projections, GDP is expected to fall by -8.7% in 2020 (revised down by -9.5% from March projections), then rebound by 5.2% in 2021 (revised up by 3.9%) and 3.3% in 2022. Balance of risks are to the downside.

                                  HICP inflation is projected to be at 0.3% in 2020 (revised down by -0.8%), 0.8% in 2021 (revised down by -0.6%) and 1.3% 2022 (revised down by -0.3%).

                                  Full press conference statement here.

                                  ECB press conference live stream

                                    YouTube

                                    By loading the video, you agree to YouTube’s privacy policy.
                                    Learn more

                                    Load video

                                     

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped to 1.88m, continuing claims rose to 2.28m

                                      US initial jobless claims dropped another -249k to 1877k  in the week ending May 30. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -324.8k to 2284k. Continuing claims rose 649k to 21487m in the week ending May 23. Four-week moving average dropped -222.5k to 22446k.

                                      Also released, US trade deficit widened to USD -49.4B in April versus expectation of USD -41.5B. Non-farm productivity dropped -0.9% in Q1 while unit labor costs rose 5.1%. Canada trade deficit widened to CAD -3.3B in April versus expectation of CAD -2.7B.

                                      BoE Hauser: Negative rate not going to happen in the near term

                                        Andrew Hauser, BoE Executive Director for Markets said even if negative interest rate is the right thing to do, “it’s not going to happen in the near term”. He added, “it’s on the retail side and banking side that we need to think more about it, and no decisions have been made about that either way.”

                                        He also warned, “financial markets could come under strain again if there is another leg to the global infection cycle, or if economic data come out persistently worse than expected.”

                                        ECB increase PEPP by EUR 600B, extend to at least June 2021

                                          ECB announced to increase the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)  by EUR 600B to a total of EUR 1350B today. Purchases will continue to conducted in a “flexible manner over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions”.

                                          Also, the horizon of PEPP net purchases will be extended to “at least the end of June 2021”. Additionally, “the Governing Council will conduct net asset purchases under the PEPP until it judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over.” Maturing principal payments will also be reinvested “until at least the end of 2022”.

                                          Asset purchase programme net purchase will continue at monthly pace of EUR 20B and it’s expected to “run for as long as necessary”. Reinvestments of principal payments will also continue, “for an extended period of time”.

                                          Interest rates are held unchanged, with main refinancing rate at 0.00%, marginal facility rate at 0.25% and deposit rate at -0.50%.

                                          Full statement here.