Australia Frydenberg: Effective unemployment at around 13.3%, second phase of income support coming

    Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the effective unemployment rate is “around 13.3% right now” and ” “that is a large number of people reflecting the economic challenges that we see right now.” His number is nearly double of the official data of 7.1%.

    “We have seen a big reduction in hours worked in the months since the Covid pandemic first hit in Australia,” Frydenberg further explained. “That just reflects the enormous economic challenge that we face and the impact it’s having on the unemployment rate.”

    Frydenberg added that there will be a “second phase of income support” to be delivered with the fiscal and economic statement on July 23. “It will be governed by the same principles that have defined our economic measures to date, namely that our support will be targeted, it will be temporary, it will be designed based on existing systems and it will also be demand driven,”

    Fed Kaplan: Broad mask wearing and health care protocols executions key to growth

      Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he expects the economy growth in Q3 and Q4. But still, he’s base case is for the economy to contract around -4.5% to -5% for 2020 as a whole. He reiterated that controlling the spread of the coronavirus is the key to economic recovery.

      “How the virus proceeds and what the incidence is is going to be directly related to how fast we grow,” Kaplan said. “While monetary and fiscal policy have a key role to play, the primary economic policy from here is broad mask wearing and good execution of these health care protocols; if we do that well, we’ll grow faster.”

      US PPI dropped -0.2% mom in June, PPI core dropped -0.3% mom

        US PPI dropped -0.2% mom in June versus expectation of 0.4% mom. PPI core dropped -0.3% mom versus expectation of 0.1% mom. Annually, PPI was unchanged at -0.8% yoy, below expectation of -0.4% yoy. PPI core slowed to 0.1% yoy, down from 0.3% yoy, missed expectation of 0.5% yoy.

        Full release here.

        Canada employment rose 953k in June, well above expectation

          Canada employment rose 953k, or 5.8% in June, well above expectation of 675k. Full-time jobs rose 488k, or 3.5% while part-time jobs rose 465k, or 17.9%. Still, employment in June was 1.8m or -9.2% lower than in February.

          Unemployment rate dropped to 12.3%, down from May’s 13.7%, but missed expectation of 11.9%. That’s still more than double of February’s 5.6%. Labor force participation rate rose 2.4% to 63.8%, which is a positive sign even though it’s below February’s 65.5%.

          Full release here.

          Italy industrial output rose 42.1% mom in May, well above expectations

            Italy industrial output rose 42.1% mom in May, well above expectation of 19.2%. That’s also much more than enough to reverse April’s -20.5% mom decline. Nevertheless, for the last three months over the previous three months, productions still dropped -29.9%. Comparing with May 2019, productions dropped -20.3% yoy.

            Full release here.

            French industrial production rose 19.6% in May, still down -21.2% from Feb

              France industrial production rose 19.6% mom in May, above expectation of 15.0%. It also nearly recovered all of April’s -20.6% decline. Nevertheless, compared to February, the last month before the start of general lockdown, outlook was still down -21.2%.

              Full release here.

              US 10-year yield breaking 0.6 while stocks were mixed

                The US stock markets continued to display some divergence overnight. DOW ended down sharply by -361.19 pts or -1.39%. S&P 500 also dropped -17.89 pts or -0.56%. Yet, NASDAQ scored another record high, rose 55.25pts or 0.53% to close at 10547.75. However, the steep decline in 10-year yield could be a sign that risk aversion is sneaking back.

                TNX hit at s low at 0.599, breached 0.6 handle, before closing at 0.605, down -0.048. In Asia, TNX remains pressured, down -0.0172 at 0.591 at the time of writing. Near term focus is back on 0.543 support, which TNX might attempt to test next week. There shouldn’t be any serious trouble for the markets if this 0.543 would remain intact. But a strong break there could bring steep decline back towards to spike low of 0.398. That would be a strong sign of risk aversion if happens.

                AUD/JPY tumbles as Victoria coronavirus cases spiked

                  Australian Dollar drops broadly today and selling pressure also intensified. Victoria state Premier Daniel Andrews confirmed that a total of 288 coronavirus cases were recorded in 24 hours, making a record daily increase since the start of the pandemic. Andrews requested the residents there to wear masks anywhere they can’t social distance. He’s also unsure whether the reimposed lockdown in metropolitan Melbourne would end in six weeks as planned.

                  The Aussie is also weighed down by weakness in Asian stocks, as China Shanghai SSE ended its winning streak. Yen is back in control as the strongest one for today. AUD/JPY’s steep decline today argues that sideway pattern from 72.52 might have finally completed at 75.15. Correction from 76.78 is ready to resume. Focus will be on 72.52 support, probably next week. Break will extend the corrective fall from 76.78 to 38.2% retracement of 59.89 to 76.78 at 70.32.

                  Oil price tumbles, DOW down -2%

                    Both oil price and DOW drop notably in early US session today. WTI is now back at around 39.50 after hitting as high as 40.97 yesterday. Our view is unchanged that price actions from 41.39 are forming a corrective pattern. The break of 39.79 minor support argues that the second leg might have completed. Further fall would now be seen back towards 36.87 support level.

                    DOW is currently trading down over -500 pts or at around -2%. It’s now getting more likely that price actions from 24843.18 are merely a sideway pattern, as the second wave in the pattern from 27580.21. It’s still a bit far but focus is back on 24971.03 support. Firm break there should extend the corrective fall from 27580.21 to 38.2% retracement at 24002.18.

                    US initial jobless claims dropped -99k to 1314k

                      US initial jobless claims dropped -99k to 1314k in the week ending July 4, slightly below expectation of 1375k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -63k to 1437k.

                      Continuing claims dropped -698k to 18062k in the week ending June 27. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -636k to 19.086k.

                      Full release here.

                      Germany exports dropped -29.7% yoy in May, imports dropped -21.7% yoy

                        Germany’s export dropped -29.7% yoy to EUR 80.3B in May. Imports dropped -21.7% yoy to EUR 73.2B. Trade surplus widened to EUR 7.1B (or EUR 7.6B calendar and seasonally adjusted). Current account of the balance of payments showed a surplus of EUR 6.5B.

                        Exports to EU countries dropped -29.0% yoy while imports dropped -25.2% yoy. Exports to non-EU countries dropped -30.5% yoy while imports dropped -17.5% yoy.

                        Full release here.

                        New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to -29.8, activity outlook jumped to -6.8

                          New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rose 4.6 pts from -34.4 to -29.8 in the preliminary July reading. Own Activity Outlook rose even sharply by 19.1 pts from -25.9 to -6.8. Looking at some other details, investment intentions rose from -20.5 to -4.5. Employment intentions rose from -34.7 to -15.3. Profit expectations rose from -46.8 to -25.8.

                          ANZ said: “New Zealand is in an enviable position (touch wood), with activity largely back to normal, as demonstrated by traffic and spending data and many other indicators. After the rigorous of lockdown we deserve a pat on the back and a little splurge…. Uncertainty is extreme and the global outlook dire. But for now, we’re getting on with our economic lives, and that’ll be helping to repair business’ balance sheets.”

                          Full release here.

                          BoJ Kuroda: Severe situation to continue but economy will gradually resume

                            In the branch managers’ meeting, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said “economic activity is expected to gradually resume”. But, for the time being “severe situation will continue due to the impact of infectious diseases both inside and outside Japan”.

                            “If the impact of the infectious disease then subsides, pent-up demand (restricted demand) is expected to emerge and recovery production is expected. As a result, the Japanese economy is expected to improve,” he added.

                            As for monetary policy, Kuroda said “we will closely monitor the effects of the new coronavirus infection and, if necessary, take additional monetary easing measures without hesitation. It is assumed that the policy interest rate will remain at or below the current level of long and short interest rates.”

                            Fed Rosengren: Economy to remain weaker than hoped through summer and fall

                              Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said yesterday that “I do expect unfortunately that the economy is going to remain weaker than many had hoped through the summer and fall”. He added the Fed’s Main Street Lending program could grow over time and the program will be “an important way to make sure that firms don’t close.”

                              Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said “businesses like construction had pretty good pipelines and kept going”. But “new orders are not coming on line in the same way. We have fiscal payments … that are coming to an end and it is not clear what is going to replace them.”

                              St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he’s “still pretty optimistic in my base case about the recovery”. “Masks will become ubiquitous throughout the economy and… fatalities will go way down.” He expected unemployment rate to drop to “maybe even 7%” by year end.

                              US crude oil inventory rose 5.7m barrels, WTI steady

                                US commercial crude oil inventories rose 5.7m barrels in the week ending July 3, versus expectation of -3.2m. At 539.3m barrels, inventories are about 18% above the five year average for this time of the year. Motor gasoline inventories dropped -4.8m barrels. Distillate fuel inventories rose 3.1m barrels. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.2m barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories rose 9.8m barrels.

                                WTI crude oil is steadily in range after the release. We’d continue to expect limited upside on loss of upside moment, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Strong resistance should also be seen fro 42.05 key support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 36.87 support will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall to 34.36 support and below.

                                German Merkel: We should prepare for a possibility of no-deal Brexit

                                  German Chancellor Angela Merkel told the European Parliament today that progress Brexit negotiations “thus far has been slim, to put it diplomatically”. “”We have agreed with the UK to accelerate the pace of the talks,” she added. ” I will continue to push for a good solution, but we should also prepare for a possibility of a no-deal scenario.”

                                  EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier reiterate today that “We are working hard for a fair agreement with the United Kingdom, including on fisheries and a ‘level playing field”. He’s now in London this week for more talks.

                                  Earlier this week, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman said UK could leave EU on Australia terms if no deal could be reached.

                                  Germany Altmaier expects growth from October or November

                                    Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said he expected the economy to start growing again from October or November. Also, he noted that the European Commission has given its approval for the country’s Economic Stabilization Fund.

                                    With the fund’s key framework approved, the would has capital of up to EUR 600B for offsetting the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on German economy. The ministry is already in information talks with some 50 firms about tapping assistance from the fund.

                                    INSEE: France economy to rebound by 19% in Q3 and 3% in Q4

                                      France INSEE said the country’s economy has likely contracted -17% in Q2 over the quarter, unchanged from June’s forecast. Looking ahead, the economy is expected to rebound by 19% in Q3, and a further 3% in Q4. By December economic activity would be around 1-6% below pre-coronavirus levels.

                                      For 2020 as a whole, INSEE expected GDP to contract -9%, worst since record began in 1948. Nevertheless, that was already better than the government’s own estimate of -11% contraction.

                                      ECB Lagarde: Pandemic measures demonstrated efficiency and effectiveness

                                        ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an FT interview that the central bank’s pandemic measures have demonstrated “demonstrated their efficiency, their effectiveness.” For now, “we have done so much that we have quite a bit of time to assess” economic data “carefully.”

                                        ECB will meet again next week. Lagarde’s messages suggested that the central bank will stand pat and adopt a wait-and-see attitude. ECB has nearly doubled the size of its pandemic purchase program to EUR 1.35T in June.

                                        Fed Mester: There’s some leveling off in economic recovery

                                          Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said economic activity started to come back pretty well after reopening in May. However, “over the past week or so, there’s been some leveling off, and I think it’s probably due to the increase in cases not only in Ohio but across the country.”

                                          “It’s going to be a long road back to where we were in February,” she said. “That’s why the Fed has been saying we’re here with our tools and we anticipate having very accommodative monetary policy for quite some time in the future, because it’s just going to take a long time to work through this.”