Sat, Jul 27, 2024 @ 18:27 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 4

Live Comments

Featured posts

US core CPI slows to 3.3%, lowest since Apr 2021

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    In June, US CPI fell -0.1% mom, versus expectation of 0.1% mom rise. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) rose 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom rise. Energy index fell -2.0% mom while food index rose 0.2% mom.

    For the 12-month period, headline CPI slowed from 3.3% yoy to 3.0%yoy, below expectation of 3.1% yoy. Core CPI slowed from 3.4% yoy to 3.3% yoy, below expectation of being unchanged at 3.4% yoy. Core CPI was also the lowest since April 2021. Energy index was up 1.0% yoy while food index was up 2.2% yoy.

    Full US CPI release here.

    UK GDP grows 0.4% mom in May, driven by services

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      UK GDP grew by 0.4% mom in May, surpassing expectations of 0.2% mom increase. The primary driver of this growth was a 0.3% mom rise in services output, which significantly contributed to the overall monthly GDP increase. Additionally, production output grew by 0.2% mom , while construction output saw a substantial jump of 1.9% mom.

      On a broader scale, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.9% in the three months leading up to May compared to the previous three months ending in February. This growth was predominantly driven by a 1.1% increase in services output. However, production remained stagnant with no growth, and construction output declined by -0.7%.

      Full UK GDP release here.

      NASDAQ eyes 20k after Powell’s balanced risk remarks

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        US stocks soared overnight, with NASDAQ and S&P 500 both extending their record runs with gains exceeding 1%. Investors responded positively to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s two-day semiannual testimony, even though forex markets remained relatively unchanged.

        Powell refrained from hinting at the timing of Fed’s first rate cut but acknowledged that the risks to the economy are now more balanced. He emphasized that “elevated inflation is not the only risk,” reinforcing expectations that Fed would move quickly to ease policy if economic and job market conditions show significant signs of cooling.

        Technically, near term outlook in NASDAQ will stay bullish as long as 18034.99 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 12543.85 to 16538.86 from 15222.77 at 19217.78.

        Or, NASDAQ might be targeting long term target of 100% projection of 6631.42 to 16212.22 from 10088.82 at 19669.62. Or it’s actually targeting 20k psychological level.

        In summary, if NASDAQ can stay above 18k mark, a rapid move to 20k could be on the horizon.

        Fed’s Cook optimistic on soft landing, pledges vigilance on labor market dynamics

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          Speaking at an event in Australia today, Fed Governor Lisa Cook expressed optimism about the US economy’s prospects, noting that the data so far appears to be “consistent with a soft landing”. She highlighted that inflation has dropped significantly from its peak levels, and while the labor market has “cooled but remains strong”.

          Cook also pointed out that the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment has returned to pre-pandemic levels, and fewer workers are voluntarily quitting their jobs, indicating less confidence in finding better employment opportunities. “My baseline forecast (and that of many outside observers) is that inflation will continue to move toward target over time, without much further rise in unemployment,” she said.

          However, Cook underscored Fed’s attentiveness to changes in the unemployment rate, noting that the situation could shift rapidly and that Fed would be “responsive” to such changes.

           

          BoE’s Mann foresees inflation bounce after touching 2%

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            BoE MPC member Catherine Mann, known for her hawkish stance, expressed caution in a speech overnight. Although headline inflation has fallen to 2%, Mann described this as a “touch and go,” predicting that “we’re going to be above 2% for the rest of the year.”

            Mann emphasized the need to see a “sustained deceleration” in services inflation, signaling her reluctance to support interest rate cuts at this stage. Her comments suggest she remains committed to resisting rate cuts despite recent data showing headline inflation at the BoE’s 2% target.

             

            BoE’s Pill warns of uncomfortable strength in underlying inflation

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              In a speech today, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill highlighted that while it is “welcome news” that the UK’s headline CPI returned to 2% in May, it is crucial for the inflation target to be achieved on a “lasting and sustainable basis.”

              He emphasized three key indicators of inflation persistence: labor market tightness, pay growth, and services price inflation. Pill noted that recent developments in these areas suggest “some upside risk to my assessment of inflation persistence.”

              Pill pointed out that annual rates of services price inflation and wage growth, which remain close to 6%, indicate an “uncomfortable strength” in the underlying inflation dynamics.

              He also cautioned that the MPC should remain cautious about interpreting any “single data” point as either a “necessary or sufficient trigger” for reassessing their stance.

              Full speech of BoE’s Pill here.

              China’s CPI slows to 0.2% in Jun, PPI negative for 21st month

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                China’s CPI slowed to 0.2% yoy in June, down from 0.3% yoy in May, missing expectations of a 0.4% yoy increase. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% yoy, unchanged from May, but slightly slower than the 0.7% increase observed in the first half of the year.

                On a month-on-month basis, inflation remained negative in June, with CPI falling by -0.2%, following a -0.1% decrease in May. This continued negative trend reflects ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy.

                PPI fell by -0.8% yoy, improving from the prior month’s -1.4% yoy decline and matching market expectations. Despite the slight improvement, PPI has remained negative for the 21st consecutive month, indicating persistent weakness in industrial prices.

                AUD/NZD soars after RBNZ, more upside if policy diverges with RBA

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  AUD/NZD soars sharply higher after RBNZ softened its hawkish stance, incorporating language in its latest statement that suggests a shift towards monetary easing. This change has created prospects for stronger rally in the cross, driven by policy divergence between RBNZ and RBA.

                  In particular, if RBNZ moves to cut interest rates sooner than previously projected, while RBA raises rates in response to strong Q2 Australian inflation data, AUD/NZD could see even more significant gains in the medium term.

                  Technically, immediate focus is now on 1.1085 key medium term resistance (2023 high). Firm break there will confirm whole rebound from 1.0469 (2022 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 1.0567 to 1.1027 from 1.0730 at 1.1190.

                  Strong break of 1.1190 would bring upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 1.1474 in the medium term. In any case, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0971 support holds for now.

                  RBNZ holds rates at 5.50%, softens hawkish tone

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    RBNZ left OCR unchanged at 5.50%, as widely expected. The central bank softened its hawkish stance in the accompanying statement, indicating that the extent of monetary restriction “will be tempered over time consistent with the expected decline in inflation pressures.” Markets interpreted this as a signal that RBNZ is moving closer to lowering interest rates.

                    RBNZ also acknowledged that its restrictive monetary policy has “significantly reduced consumer price inflation,” with headline inflation expected to return to the 1-3% target band “in the second half of this year.” This decline in inflation reflects both receding domestic pricing pressures and lower inflation for imported goods and services. Additionally, labor market pressures have eased.

                    While domestically generated price pressures “remain strong,” RBNZ said there are signs that “inflation persistence will ease in line with the fall in capacity pressures and business pricing intentions.”

                    Full RBNZ statement here.

                    Fed’s Powell highlights risks beyond elevated inflation

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      In his prepared remarks for the semiannual testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that it is not appropriate to cut interest rate until there is “greater confidence” that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.

                      Nevertheless, He noted that recent inflation readings have shown “modest further progress,” and that “more good data” would strengthen this confidence.

                      Powell emphasized the Fed’s “meeting by meeting” decision-making process, warning that reducing policy restraint “too soon or too much” could “stall or even reverse the progress” on inflation.

                      Yet, he also acknowledged that, with significant progress made in lowering inflation and cooling the labor market over the past two years, “elevated inflation is not the only risk” faced by the Fed. Delaying policy adjustments “too late or too little” could “unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

                      Full remarks of Fed’s Powell here.

                      ECB’s Panetta backs gradual rate cuts amid stabilizing inflation

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta indicated today the “reduction of official rates could proceed gradually”, in line with the return of inflation towards the ECB’s target. Speaking to bankers in Rome, Panetta emphasized that as long as macroeconomic trends remain consistent with ECB’s expectations, this gradual approach will be maintained.

                        Panetta downplayed concerns over persistently high service sector prices, explaining that it is typical for service prices to decline more slowly compared to goods prices. He also noted that wage growth is expected to moderate in the near future.

                        “Past interest rate hikes are still dampening demand, output, and inflation and will continue to do so in the months to come,” Panetta remarked.

                         

                        Australia’s NAB business confidence rebounds to 4, highest since early 2023

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          Australia’s NAB Business Confidence rose from -2 to 4 in June, marking its highest level since early 2023 and returning to positive territory. However, Business Conditions fell from 6 to 4, indicating some ongoing challenges. Trading conditions decreased slightly from 11 to 10, profitability conditions dropped from 3 to 2, and employment conditions fell sharply from 5 to 0.

                          Labor cost growth slowed to 1.8% on a quarterly basis, down from 2.3% in May, while purchase cost growth eased to 1.3% from 1.7%. Overall product price growth decreased to 0.7%, down from 1.1%. Retail price growth, however, held steady at 1.5%, and recreation and personal services prices declined to 0.7% from 1.1%.

                          Gareth Spence, NAB Head of Australian Economics, noted, the survey signals “another soft quarter” in Q2. Capacity utilisation remains “high with demand and supply yet to fully normalise”.

                          “Price pressures continue to ease in a trend sense though the data certainly remains bumpy,” Spence added.

                          Full Australia NAB business confidence release here.

                          Australia Westpac consumer sentiment falls -1.1% mom, intensifying interest rate concerns

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index dropped by -1.1% mom to 82.7 in July, reflecting increased concerns about persistent inflation and fears of interest rate hikes.

                            The Mortgage Rate Expectations Index, which measures consumer expectations for variable mortgage rates over the next 12 months, surged by 12.8% in July, marking the steepest monthly rise since early 2022. Over the past three months, the index has climbed by 30%, from a below-average 122.8 in April to 159.2 in July, well above historical average of 143.8. This marked increase is the sharpest observed in the past seven years, with detailed responses indicating that nearly 60% of consumers expect mortgage rates to rise over the next year.

                            RBA will meet on August 5–6. Westpac expects the RBA to hold interest rates steady, contingent on inflation continuing to decline as anticipated. The upcoming Q2 CPI and labor market data will be critical.

                            Full Australia Westpac consumer sentiment release here.

                            BoE’s Haskel advocates holding rates amid tight labor market

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              BoE MPC member Jonathan Haskel highlighted in a speech that assuming no further shocks, inflation will depend on the “interaction of a tight labour market and second-round effects as previous inflation works its way through the wage-price system.”

                              Haskel emphasized that the MPC is closely monitoring labor market conditions and underlying inflationary indicators, particularly services inflation.

                              He expressed concerns about the current state of the labor market, stating, “The labour market continues to be tight, and I worry it is still impaired. I would rather hold rates until there is more certainty that underlying inflationary pressures have subsided sustainably.”

                              Full speech of BoE’s Haskel here.

                              ECB’s Knot rules out July rate cut

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot has indicated there is no case for another rate cut in July. In an interview with Handelsblatt, Knot stated, “I don’t see a case for another rate cut in July.” He emphasized that the next ECB meeting that will consider rate adjustments will be in September.

                                Knot expressed satisfaction with ECB’s progress in reducing inflation, projecting that 2% target will be achieved by late 2025. However, he warned against tolerating further delays, noting that inflation will have exceeded ECB’s target for four and a half years by that time.

                                Market expectations suggest between one and two rate cuts this year and just over four cuts over the next 18 months. This implies that the deposit rate would remain above 3% into the second half of next year. K
                                not commented on this outlook, saying, “As long as we are above 3%, we are still restrictive. And that will be the case for the foreseeable future, beyond which I cannot make meaningful statements.”

                                Eurozone Sentix drops sharply to -7.3 on rising political and economic uncertainties

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped sharply in July, falling from 0.3 to -7.3, significantly worse than the expected 0.0. This decline ends a series of eight consecutive rises and marks a severe setback. Current Situation Index also declined from -9.0 to -15.8, while Expectations Index fell from 10.0 to 1.5.

                                  Sentix highlighted that investors are increasingly concerned not just about the French elections but also about upcoming state elections in Germany. Moreover, growing worries about the health of the incumbent US president and the uncertainty surrounding who will run against Donald Trump in the next presidential election are adding to the overall anxiety. This uncertainty is creating a vacuum, compounded by the slowdown in the US economy, which is beginning to affect the rest of the world.

                                  Given this “first mover” trend in the Eurozone, ECB is likely to consider further interest rate cuts. Investors anticipate that ECB will shift its focus more towards addressing economic weaknesses, particularly as the Sentix thematic barometer on “Inflation” signals an easing of inflationary pressures.

                                  Full Eurozone Sentix release here.

                                  BoJ highlights spread of big firm wage hikes to smaller companies

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    In the Regional Economic Report, BoJ maintained its economic assessment for five out of Japan’s nine regions, while upgrading two and downgrading two. Eight regions, with the exception of Hokuriku, indicated that their economies had been recovering moderately, picking up, or picking up moderately, although some weakness was noted in certain areas.

                                    “Many regions reported that big firms’ big pay hikes in this year’s wage negotiations were spreading to small and medium-sized companies,” BoJ noted. This suggests a positive spillover effect from large corporations to smaller businesses.

                                    BOJ also noted that consumption was “firm as a whole,” driven by robust spending from inbound tourists. This strong tourist spending is helping to offset softer consumption among households affected by rising living costs.

                                     

                                    Japan’s nominal wages rises 1.9% yoy, highest in 11months

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      Japan’s nominal labor cash earnings increased by 1.9% yoy in May, up from April’s 1.6% growth. Despite this being the 29th consecutive month of growth and the most substantial increase in 11 months, it fell short of the expected 2.1% yoy.

                                      Regular pay saw a notable rise of 2.5% yoy, marking the best pace since January 1993, while overtime pay rebounded by 2.3% yoy, its first increase in six months.

                                      However, these gains in nominal wages are overshadowed by the continued decline in real wages, which fell by -1.4% yoy, marking the 26th consecutive month of decline. This is also a deterioration from the -1.2% yoy drop recorded in April.

                                      Canada’s employment falls -1.4k in Jun, unemployment rate rises further to 6.4%

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        Canada’s employment contracted -1.4k in June, much worse than expectation of 25.0k growth.

                                        Unemployment rate rose from 6.2% to 6.4%, above expectation of 6.3%. It has now risen 1.3% since April 2023. Employment rate fell -0.2% to 61.1%.

                                        Total hours worked were down -0.4% mom, up 1.1% yoy. Average hourly wages rose 5.4% yoy, up from May’s 5.1% yoy.

                                        Full Canada employment release here.

                                        US NFP rises 206k in Jun, but May and Apr revised sharply lower

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          US Non-Farm Payroll employment increased by 206k in June, above expectation of 180k. Growth was slightly lower than average monthly gain of 220k over the prior 12 months.

                                          However, prior month’s growth was revised sharply lower from 272k to 218k. April’s figure was also revised sharply lower by -57k to 165k. That is, April and May’s combined downward revision was -111k.

                                          Unemployment rate ticked up from 4.0% to 4.1%, above expectation of holding steady at 4.0%. Unemployment rate also rose slightly from 62.5% to 62.6%.

                                          Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Annual hourly earnings growth slowed from 4.0% yoy to 3.9% yoy.

                                          Full US NFP release here.

                                          1...345...671Page 4 of 671

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.