UK PMI Manufacturing rose to 53.6 in July, up from 50.1, well above expectation of 51.0. That’s also a 16-month high. PMI Services rose to 56.6, up from 47.1, above expectation of 51.0. That’s the highest level in 60 months. PMI Composite rose to 57.1, up from 47.7, a 61-month high.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The UK economy started the third quarter on a strong footing as business continued to reopen doors after the COVID-19 lockdown… However, while the recession looks to have been brief, the scars are likely to be deep. Even with the July rebound there’s a long way to go before the output lost to the pandemic is regained and, while businesses grew more optimistic about the year ahead, a V-shaped recovery is by no means assured…. July’s PMI represents a step in the right direction, but there is a mountain still to climb before a sustainable recovery is in sight.”

Full release here.

UK retail sales, in volume term, rose 13.9% mom in June, much better than expectation of 8.5% mom. Excluding automotive fuel, sales rose 13.5% mom, also well above expectation of 7.5% mom. Total sales have now recovered back to similar levels as before the coronavirus pandemic.

Full release here.

UK Gfk Consumer Confidence came in at -27 in July, up from June’s -30, unchanged from flash reading. Joe Staton, GfK’s Client Strategy Director, says: “There’s been little to boost the public’s mood as the cost of the pandemic to the UK’s economy is becoming apparent. Amidst significant job losses and the end of the furlough scheme, it is perhaps surprising Consumer Confidence has held steady at -27 this month.

“Many people have been savvy and saved money during lockdown, as the most recent GDP figures show. That could explain the one bright spark on the horizon — the three-point uptick in consumer expectations for the financial position of their households in the next 12 months. The way we perceive our ‘future wallets’ is key as it’s the one area over which we have day-to-day control and is a good indicator of our personal financial outlook for the year to come.”

Full release here.

UK CBI monthly order book balance rose to -46 in July, up from -58. While that was the best reading since March, it missed expectation of -35. Output volumes dropped further to -59, down from -57, worst on record since 1975.

Rain Newton-Smith, CBI Chief Economist, said: “There are tentative signs of gradual recovery on the horizon, with firms expecting output and orders to begin to pick up in the next three months. But demand still remains deeply depressed.”

Tom Crotty, Group Director at INEOS and Chair of the CBI Manufacturing Council, said: “The latest survey showcases the significant challenges that manufacturers have faced over the last three months due to the COVID-19 crisis. However, these results may prove to be a low point in the crisis, with manufacturers expecting output to grow for the first time since the pandemic hit.”