US ADP employment grew only 169k as recovery slowed

    ADP report showed only 167k growth in US private employment in July, far below expectation of 1200k. Nevertheless, June’s figure was revised sharply higher from 2369k to 4314k. By company size, small businesses added 63k jobs, medium businesses dropped -25k, large businesses rose 129k. By sector, goods-producing companies added just 1k job. Service-providing companies added 166k jobs.

    “The labor market recovery slowed in the month of July,”said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “We have seen the slowdown impact businesses across all sizes and sectors.”

    Full release here.

    Eurozone retail sales rose 5.7% in June, back to pre-pandemic level

      Eurozone retail sales rose 5.7% mom in June, above expectation of 5.0% mom. Sale rose 5.2% mom in EU in June too. Back in May, retail trade volume rose 20.3% mom in Eurozone and 18.3% in EU. Combined, that means sales volumes have already returned to the pre-pandemic level in February.

      For the month, among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Ireland (+21.9%), Spain (+16.5%) and Italy (+13.8%). Decreases were observed in Austria (-2.5%) and Germany (-1.6%).

      Full release here.

      UK PMI composite finalized at 57.0, highest since Jun 2015

        UK PMI Services was finalized at 56.5 in July, up from June’s 47.1, best reading since July 2015. PMI Composite was finalized at 57.0, up from 47.7 in June, highest since June 2015.

        Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “While the latest survey data provide a number of positive signs that the UK economy is back in expansion mode, the weakness of the employment figures reported in July is clearly a cause for concern and likely to hold back the longer-term recovery in business and consumer spending.”

        Full release here.

        Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 54.9, highest since Jun 2018

          Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 54.7 in July, up from June’s 48.3. PMI Composite was finalized at 54.9, up from June’s 48.5. That’s also the highest level since June 2018.

          Looking at some member states, France PMI Composite hit 29-month high of 57.3. Germany hit 23-month high of 55.3. Spain hit 15-month high at 52.8. Italy hit 24-month high of 52.5.

          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Combined with a surge in manufacturing production, the renewed expansion of the service sector bodes well for the economy to rebound in the third quarter after the unprecedented slump seen in the second quarter. Whether the recovery can be sustained will be determined first and foremost by virus case numbers, and the recent signs of a resurgence pose a particular risk to many parts of the service sector, such as travel, tourism and hospitality.

          “However, even without a significant increase in infections, social distancing measures will need to be in place until an effective treatment or vaccine is available, dampening the ability of many firms to operate at anything like pre-pandemic capacity, and representing a major constraint on longer-run economic recovery prospects.”

          Full release here.

          China Caixin PMI services dropped to 54.1, composite dropped to 54.5

            China Caixin PMI Services dropped to 54.1 in July, down from 58.4, missed expectation of 56.8. PMI Composite dropped slightly to 54.5, down from 55.7.

            Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Both the manufacturing and services sectors continued recovering, especially manufacturing. New orders kept increasing and the backlog of work also rose. The gauge for business expectations remained high, suggesting that companies were confident about the economic recovery. Overseas demand continued to be troubled for both sectors.

            “Employment was still a key problem. The combination of expanding demand and production with shrinking employment has dogged the economy for several months. In hard times, enterprises look to shore up profits by cutting costs, like labor. Therefore improving employment requires more time and greater confidence among businesses.”

            Full release here.

            New Zealand unemployment rate dropped to 4% as people left labor force and worked less hours, NZD/USD recovers

              New Zealand employment dropped -0.4% qoq in Q2, much smaller than expectation of -1.9% qoq. Unemployment dropped -5.1% qoq. Unemployment also surprised and dropped to 4.0%, down from 4.2%, way better than expectation of 5.7% . However, labor force participation rate also -0.8% to 69.7%. Labor cost index rose 0.2% qoq, below expectation of 0.4% qoq. Also, total weekly paid hours dropped -3.4% while actual weekly hours worked dropped -10.3%.

              Both employment and unemployment fell in the quarter, as more people were not even in the labor force. Work hours dropped more sharply than employment, reflecting reduced hours worked during lockdown by the people remain employed.

              Full release here.

              NZD/USD recovers mildly after the release but that’s mainly following Dollar’s broad-based weakness. Conditions for a correcting is building up with bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACDs. It’s also just ahead of 0.6755 key resistance. Sustained break of 0.6584 should at least bring deeper pull back to 0.6385 and below. But sustained break of 0.6755 might bring another round of upside acceleration.

              NASDAQ gained 0.35% to new record high, up trend in progress to 11673

                NASDAQ gained another 0.35% overnight to close at new record of 10941.17. The upside range breakout is a sign of strength. But we’d need daily MACD to break sits trend line to confirm re-acceleration. If it happens, it’s likely that NASDAQ would have a take on 138.2% projection of 6190.17 to 9838.37 from 6631.42 at 11673.23 before making a top.

                On the downside, the lower part of this week’s gap, last week’s high of 10747.80, is the first line of defense. 10217.31 support is the key near term structural level to maintain bullishness.

                Gold breaks 2000 with powerful move, 2150 next?

                  Gold’s up trend finally resumes with a powerful move to as high as 2030.86 so far, breaking 2000 handle for the first time ever. It’s now pressing an important long term projection level, 261.8% projection of 1046.37 to 1375.17 from 1160.17 at 2020.96. It remains to be seen if this projection level, together with overbought conditions, would cap gold’s upside and bring an overdue correction.

                  But for now, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1966.89 holds. Sustained trading above 2020.96 will pave the way to next medium term target of 161.8% projection of 1451.16 to 1747.75 from 1670.66 at 2150.54.

                  Canada PMI manufacturing rose to 52.9, 18-month high

                    Canada Markit PMI Manufacturing rose to 52.9 in July, up from 47.8. That’s also an 18-month high, best since January 2019. It’s also significantly above April’s low point of 33.0. Markit also noted that output, new orders and employment increase. Business expectations moderate since June, however.

                    Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit, said:

                    “July data highlights a partial rebound in the Canadian manufacturing sector after the steep downturn seen during the second quarter of 2020. Production volumes expanded at the fastest pace for nearly two years, helped by a tentative recovery in manufacturing sales as customers restarted spending amid an easing of COVID-19 restrictions. A slight increase in employment numbers was also a positive signal that manufacturing companies expect to continue expanding their production schedules in the coming months.

                    “It was not all good news in July, however, as export sales continued to slide and business expectations slipped back from June’s four-month high. Reports from survey respondents suggested that concerns about the global economic outlook and a second wave of the pandemic had curtailed growth projections for some manufacturers in the latest survey period.”

                    Full release here.

                    ECB Lane: PEPP envelop determines the overall monetary stance, not monthly purchases

                      In a blog post, ECB chief economist Philip said despite some rebound in activity, “the level of economic slack remains extraordinarily high and the outlook highly uncertain.” “Further progress in persistently containing the virus will be central in determining the size and speed of the economic recovery, together with sufficiently-supportive fiscal and monetary policies.”

                      He hailed that the recently agreed Next Generation EU instrument will be “vitally important in ensuring sufficient fiscal support across EU Member States in the coming years”. For ECB’s part, the central bank is “committed to providing the monetary stimulus needed to support the economic recovery and secure a robust convergence of inflation towards our medium-term aim.”

                      Lane downplayed the recent lower pace of PEPP purchases in July, “the usual summer lull” in market activity. He emphasized that “the overall envelope of PEPP purchases is a core determinant of the ECB’s overall monetary stance”.

                      Full blog post here.

                      Eurozone PPI at 0.3% mom, -3.7% yoy in June

                        Eurozone PPI rose 0.7% mom in June, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Annually, CPI dropped -3.7% yoy, better than expectation of -3.9% yoy. Over the month, prices in Eurozone increased by 3.1% mom in the energy sector, by 0.2% mom for intermediate goods and by 0.1% mom for capital goods, while prices remained stable for durable consumer goods and decreased by -0.1% mom for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy remained stable.

                        EU PPI rose 0.7% mom, down -3.4% yoy. The highest increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Estonia (+3.7% mom), Denmark (+3.3% mom) and Finland (+2.2% mom), while the only decreases was observed in Czechia (-0.1% mom).

                        Full release here.

                        RBA stood pat, expects uneven and bumpy recovery

                          RBA left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, keeping both the cash rate and 3-yr AGS yield target at 0.25%. The central bank also pledged that the “accommodative approach will be maintained as long as it is required”. It “will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made” on full employment and inflation.

                          RBA reiterated that the economic downturn is “not as severe as early expected”. However, the recovery is likely to be “both uneven and bumpy” with the coronavirus outbreak in Victoria having a “major effect” on its economy.

                          In the baseline scenario, output falls by -6% over 2020 then grow 5% in 202. Unemployment rate will hit around 10% later this year due to job losses in Victor. Unemployment rate is expected to gradually decline to around 7% over the following couple of years. Inflation is expected to stay below 2% target over the next couple of years in all scenarios considered.

                          Suggested readings:

                          Australia retail sales rose 2.7% in June, dropped -3.4% in the quarter

                            Australia retail sales rose 2.7% mom in June, above expectation of 2.4% mom. Over the June quarter, however, retail volumes stilled dropped -3.4% qoq. That’s the largest seasonally adjusted quarterly decline since the introduction of the GST in 2000.

                            Exports of goods and services rose 3% mom to AUD 26.2B while imports rose 1% mom to AUD 28.0B. Trade surplus widened slightly to AUD 8.2B, but missed expectation of AUD 8.8B.

                            BoJ Kuroda: Risks are high with increasing coronavirus infections outside Tokyo

                              According to an interview by Yomiuri newspaper, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned that risks to economic recovery in Japan is high. He pointed to the increasing coronavirus infections outside of Tokyo, the capital city. The central bank is considering the extend the March 2021 deadline for lending facilities that supports companies hit by the pandemic. Kuroda also reiterated the options of further easing, including expanding loan scheme, cutting short-, long-term rate targets, ramping up ETF buying etc.

                              Separately, Tokyo CPI climbed to 0.6% yoy in July, up from 0.3% yoy. CPI core also rose to 0.4% yoy, up from 0.2% yoy, beat expectation of 0.2% yoy. Monetary base rose 9.8% yoy in July, well above expectation of 6.3% yoy.

                              Fed Evans: Monetary policy is about where it can be

                                Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said “monetary policy is about where it can be”. Further monetary easing would only be effective once the situation of coronavirus pandemic is cleared. “At the moment, it’s really fiscal policy that needs to be addressing this.”

                                “Fiscal policy is really fundamental for getting us going,” he added. “The ball is in Congress’ court.” “It’s very important that something be done. If we go very long without somehow addressing the reduction and evaporation of that support, I think it’s going to show up in lower aggregate demand, and that would be very costly for the economy.”

                                Fed Barkin: Coronavirus created economic pothole becomes sinkhole

                                  Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the “pothole” in the economy created by the coronavirus pandemic has turned into a “sinkhole”. He urged Congress to keep support in place or businesses and consumers will “feel the full brunt”.

                                  “Four months ago, when we did the first stimulus, we thought the economy faced a pothole and the stimulus put a plate over it so we could navigate,” he said. “Now escalation of the virus may be making that pothole into a sinkhole and creating a need for a longer plate”.

                                  He warned, “quickly pulling away the support that consumers and businesses are receiving would be a pretty traumatic move for what’s happening in the economy.” “If Congress takes support away too abruptly … the unemployed, their landlords, the places they shop will then feel the full brunt.”

                                  US ISM manufacturing rose to 54.2, recovery continues

                                    US ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 54.2 in July, up from 52.6, slightly above expectation of 54.0. The data suggests that manufacturing is staying in growth for the third month in a row, after a month of contraction in April. Looking at some details, new orders rose sharply to 61.5, up form 56.4. Production jumped to 62.1, up from 57.3. Prices also rose to 53.2, up from 51.3. Employment improved to 44.3, up from 42.1, but stayed in contraction.

                                    Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “In July, manufacturing continued its recovery after the disruption caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Panel sentiment was generally optimistic (two positive comments for every one cautious comment), continuing a trend from June.

                                    Full release here.

                                    UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 53.3, started Q3 on firmer footing

                                      UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 53.3 in July, up from 50.1 in June. That’s also the highest level in 16 months. Markit noted that domestic new orders rise but new exports business falls. but business sentiment still rises to 28-month high.

                                      Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit: “The UK manufacturing sector started the third quarter on a much firmer footing, with output growth hitting a near three-year high and new orders rising for the first time in five months. The recovery strengthened as a loosening of lockdown restrictions allowed manufacturers to restart or raise production. July also saw signs of furloughed employees returning to work and customers resuming spending. Business optimism also rose to its highest for over two years as companies grew more hopeful that the future has brightened.

                                      “Despite the solid start to the recovery, the road left to travel remains long and precarious. An extended period of growth is still needed to fully recoup the ground lost in recent months. This is also the case for the labour market, where job losses are continuing despite businesses reopening. There is a significant risk of further redundancies and of furloughed workers not returning unless demand and confidence stage more substantial and long-lasting rebounds in the months ahead.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 51.8, August to see further output gains

                                        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing is finalized at 51.8 in July, up from April’s 47.4. It’s also the first growth reading in a year-and-a-half with demand continued to recovery with further easing of coronavirus restrictions. Growth was widespread too, with all market groups registering above 50 readings.

                                        Looking at some member states, Spain hit 27-month at 53.5. Austria hit 19-month high 52.8. France hit 22-month high at 52.4. Italy hit 25-month high at 51.9. Germany also hit 19-month high at 51.0. But Greece and the Netherlands stayed in contraction at 48.6 and 47.9 respectively.

                                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Eurozone factories reported a very positive start to the third quarter, with production growing at the fastest rate for over two years, fuelled by an encouraging surge in demand. Growth of new orders in fact outpaced production, hinting strongly that August should see further output gains…

                                        “Increased unemployment, job insecurity, second waves of virus infections and ongoing social distancing measures will inevitably restrain the recovery. The next few months numbers will therefore be all important in assessing whether the recent uplift in demand can be sustained, helping firms recover lost production and alleviating some of the need for further cost cutting going forward.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Australia Frydenberg: Coronavirus lockdown a real kick in the guts to Victorian businesses

                                          Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said Victoria is now “at war” after the state imposed stage four lockdown over the weekend, as coronavirus numbers stayed high. He said, “this is a real kick in the guts to Victorian businesses, which will have an impact on employment.

                                          Frydenberg expected the overall impact of the pandemic to the economy to be larger than prior estimate of AUD 3.3B. “Obviously that 3.3 billion number was not based on stage 4 restrictions, nor was it based on restrictions being right across the state,” he said. “I will make that number available when it comes to me, but clearly this is going to hit the Victorian economy which makes up around a quarter of the national economy, and this will obviously impact on the consumer and business confidence more broadly.”