Fed Daly: Longer support to economy needed with resurgence in coronavirus

    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she expects recovery to be slow and gradual, depending on the coronavirus. A V-shaped recovery is not expected. “As we get more information about how the virus will affect the economy, we will be thinking about how can we use forward guidance to telegraph to people, to signal to markets, households and businesses what our intentions are in terms of supporting the economy going forward”, she said.

    Also, with resurgence in infections, more stimulus is needed for the economy. “It’s becoming quite clear that the virus will be with us for longer and more vigorously than anyone had hoped for,” she said in an interview Tuesday. “The length of the support that the economy is going to need, before we can ever stimulate the economy, it just has to be longer.”

    US holds off tariff hike on EU, to start new negotiations instead

      The US held off from a threatened tariff hike on EU products regarding the 16-year Airbus subsidies dispute, and signal its willingness to go back to negotiation table. The amount of products subject to the tariffs are kept unchanged at USD 7.5B, with 15% rate for aircraft and 25% on for other products.

      “The EU and member states have not taken the actions necessary to come into compliance with WTO decisions,” Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer stated. “The United States, however, is committed to obtaining a long-term resolution to this dispute. Accordingly, the United States will begin a new process with the EU in an effort to reach an agreement that will remedy the conduct that harmed the U.S. aviation industry and workers and will ensure a level playing field for U.S. companies. ”

      “The Commission acknowledges the decision of the U.S. not to exacerbate the ongoing aircraft dispute by increasing tariffs on European products,” an EU official said in response. “The EU believes that both sides should now build on this decision and intensify their efforts to find a negotiated solution to the ongoing trade irritants.”

      US oil inventories dropped -4.5m barrels, WTI range bound

        US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -4.5m barrels in the week ending August 7, versus expectation of -3.4m barrels decline. At 514.1m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 15% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories dropped -0.7m barrels. Distillate dropped -2.3m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -2.6m barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped -6.2m barrels.

        WTI crude oil is staying in the consolidation pattern from 43.38 after the release. Further rise is expected as long as 38.58 support holds. Focus is now on 55 week EMA (now at 44.02). Sustained break there could bring some upside acceleration to 55 month EMA (now at 54.24).

        NIESR expect UK economy to grow15% in Q3

          NIESR said UK economy is expected to grow around 15% in Q3 as the economy reopens, “on the assumption that Covid-19) remains contained. And that would leave GDP in September just around -10% lower than pre-pandemic level in February.

          “Today’s ONS estimates suggest that GDP fell by a record 20.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, following a decline of 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of the year, thereby confirming the UK’s first recession since the financial crash. However, the monthly estimate for June suggests a rebound of 8.7 per cent, reflecting further easing of Covid-19 lockdown measures – though it remains a sixth below its level in February. Despite the recovery noted in June, the path ahead remains precarious. An extended period of growth will be required to make up the ground lost in recent months” Dr Kemar Whyte Senior Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting

          Full release here.

          US CPI picked up to 1.0% yoy, core up to 1.6% yoy

            US headline CPI rose 0.6% mom in July, above expectation of 0.4% mom. CPI core rose 0.6% mom, also above expectation of 0.2% mom. Annually, CPI accelerated back to 1.0% yoy, up from 0.6% yoy, beat expectation of 0.8% yoy. CPI core picked up to 1.6% yoy, up from 1.2% yoy, also beat expectation of 1.6% yoy.

            Full release here.

            Eurozone industrial production rose 9.1% in June

              Eurozone industrial production rose 9.1% mom in June, below expectation of 10.0% mom. Annually, production dropped -12.3% yoy. Production of durable consumer goods rose by 20.2%, capital goods by 14.2%, intermediate goods by 6.7%, non-durable consumer goods by 4.8% and energy by 2.6%.

              EU industrial production rose 9.1% mom, dropped – 11.6% yoy. The highest increases were registered in Slovakia (+21.7%), Hungary (+17.1%) and Romania (+16.3%). Decreases were observed in Belgium (-1.4%) and Finland (-0.8%).

              Full release here.

              UK GDP rose 8.7% mom in June, down -20.4% qoq in Q2, -17.2% below Feb’s level

                UK GDP grew 8.7% mom in June, better than expectation of 8.0% mom, and a strong improvement from May’s 2.4% mom. For the quarter, Q2 GDP, however, still contracted -20.4% qoq, slightly below expectation of -20.2% qoq. That’s also notable deterioration from Q1’s -2.2% qoq. Overall, GDP remains -17.2% below levels seen back in February, before the full impact of the coronavirus.

                In June, services grew 7.7% mom. Production rose 9.3% mom. Manufacturing rose 11.0% mom. Construction rose 23.5% mom. Agriculture rose 2.7% mom. But all sectors were down in the rolling three-month to April-to June, with services down -19.9% 3mo3m, production down -16.9% 3mo3m, manufacturing down -20.2% 3mo3m, construction down -35.0% 3mo3m, and agriculture down -4.8% 3mo3m.

                Also from UK, goods trade deficit widened to GBP -5.1B in June, larger than expectation of GBP -4.5B.

                 

                Australia consumer confidence plunged back near April low

                  Australia Westpac consumer confidence dropped -9.5% to 79.5 in August, down from 87.9. Westpac said “the scale of the fall comes as a major surprise” and it’s now back near the “extreme low” of 75.6 made in April. Nevertheless, that could prove to be a “significant overreaction” to the return to lockdown.

                  Westpac expects RBA to maintain current policies in the upcoming September 1 meeting. The next major event would be the Commonwealth Budget in October 6. As the consumer sentiment survey highlights the uncertainties around the current outlook, Westpac expects the government commit to providing “generous ongoing support the the economy”.

                  Full release here.

                  New Zealand delay dissolution of parliament, Auckland back in lockdown, NZD/JPY resilient so far

                    New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern put Auckland back into stage 3 lockdown, for three days as a “precautionary approach”. That came after the country recorded first new local coronavirus cases in 102 days. More importantly, the mystery cases, which were all diagnosed in one family, was spread from an unknown source.

                    Besides, Arden also decided to postpone the dissolution of parliament, due on Wednesday, ahead of an election just weeks away. The electoral commission was working through the implications of the coronavirus outbreak, and a decision would be on on the elections which are scheduled for September 19.

                    Despite the double hit by RBNZ and coronavirus, NZD/JPY is relatively resilient so far. Though, the condition is building up for a near term fall to correct the whole rebound from 59.49. Focus is now on 69.54 support and firm break there would pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 59.49 to 71.67 at 67.01.

                    RBNZ expands QE, prepare for negative rates, NZD/USD tumbles

                      RBNZ kept the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 0.25% today, but expanded the Large Scale Asset Purchase program to NZD 100B, up from NZD 60B. Eligible assets for the program remain unchanged. RBNZ also said a “package of additional monetary instruments must remain in active preparation”, including negative interest rates and purchases of foreign assets. Full statement here.

                      NSD/USD tumbles notable after the announcement. The development should confirm short term topping at 0.6715, after rejection by 0.6755 medium term resistance, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The correction will likely take some time to complete and should eventually target 38.2% retracement of 0.5469 to 0.6715 at 0.6239. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6626 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

                      Gold accelerates down after breaking 2000, support expected at 1920

                        Gold’s selloff accelerates today after taking out 2000 handle. Currently the decline from 2075.18 is seen as corrective the rise from 1670.66 only. Hence, while the pull back is deep we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1670.66 to 2075.18 at 1920.65 to contain downside to bring rebound. Nevertheless, Gold needs to climb back above 2000 handle to indicate stabilization. Sustained break of 1920.65 could pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1,825.18 before finding a bottom.

                        US PPI picked up to -0.4% yoy, core PPI at 0.3% yoy

                          US PPI rose 0.6% mom in July, above expectation of 0.3% mom. PPI core rose 0.5% mom, also above expectation of 0.1%. Annually, PPI climbed back to -0.4% yoy, up from -0.8% yoy, above expectation of-0.6% yoy. PPI core picked up to 0.3% yoy, up from 0.1% yoy, matched expectations.

                          Full release here.

                          German ZEW economic sentiment rose to 71.5, growing hope of recovery

                            German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 71.5 in August, up from 59.3, beat expectation of 55.0. That’s also the highest level since 2004. Current Situation index however, dropped to -81.3, down from -80.9, missed expectation of -69.5. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 64.0, up from 59.6. But Eurozone Current Situation dropped -1.1 pts to -89.8.

                            “Hopes for a speedy economic recovery have continued to grow, but the assessment of the situation is improving only slowly,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach on the current expectations. “According to the assessments of the individual sectors, experts expect to see a general recovery, especially in the domestic sectors. However, the still very poor earnings expectations for the banking sector and insurers regarding the coming six months give cause for concern,” Wambach points out.

                            Full release here.

                            UK unemployment rate unchanged at 3.9%, but worked hours and pay tumbled sharply

                              UK unemployment was unchanged at 3.9% in the three months to June, better than expectation of 4.2%. As estimated 1.34m people were unemployment, -10k fewer than the previous quarter.

                              However, total actual weekly hours worked decreased by a record 191.3m, or 18.4%, to 849.3m hours, worst since 1971. The total hours also hit the lowest level since 1994. Additionally, there was strong falls in pay, with total nominal pay fell by -1.2% yoy and regular nominal pay fell by -0.2% yoy.

                              In July, claimant count jumped 94.4k to 2.7m. Since March, claimant counts has more than doubled, rose 116.8% or 1.4m.

                              Full release here.

                              Australia NAB business confidence dropped to -14, deteriorated even before Melbourne stage 4 lockdown

                                Australia NAB Business Confidence dropped sharply to -14 in July, down from June’s 0. Business Conditions improved to 0, up from -8. Trading conditions turned position to 1 (up from -6), while profitability rose to 2 (up from -8). Employment also improved from -11 to -2 but stayed negative.

                                The survey was conducted prior to stage 4 lockdown in Melbourne as confidence already deteriorated of fear of the spread of the coronavirus. Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist said, “while the improvement in conditions is very welcome, capacity utilisation and forward orders point to ongoing weakness overall. Therefore, with confidence still fragile there is some risk that conditions lose some of their recent gains in coming months.

                                Full release here.

                                UK BRC total sales rose 3.2%, still catching up lost ground

                                  UK BRC total sales rose 3.2% yoy in July, second straight month of increase since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Also, it’s above 3-month average growth of 0.4% and 12 month average decline of -1.9%. Like-for-like sales grew 4.3% yoy.

                                  Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of BRC: “While the rise in retail sales is a step in the right direction, the industry is still trying to catch up lost ground, with most shops having suffered months of closures. The fragile economic situation continues to bear down on consumer confidence, with some retailers hanging by only a thread in the face of rising costs and lower sales.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  BoE Ramsden: Significant headroom to do more QE

                                    Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said in a the Times interview that the BoE ” still got significant headroom to do more QE if we saw a much weaker recovery”. The pace of QE could accelerate is there are signs of market “dysfunction.

                                    Ramsden is “confident” that there wouldn’t be more quarterly GDP contractions ahead. But “a key outcome is what happens to the labour market. Some companies are going to go under. Some jobs are going to be lost.”

                                    Fed Evans: New policies needed to address this unique recession

                                      Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the current recession is “unique in its swiftness severity and scope”, without modern precedent. He added that not all businesses could survive even after the coronavirus subsides. New policies are required to help the people affected through the downturn.

                                      “Tragically, the most affected are our most vulnerable neighbors – those who don’t enjoy paid sick leave, can’t work from home or don’t have much cushion in their savings accounts. Their future is highly uncertain and will require new policies to help them through this difficult transition,” he said.

                                      Bank of France: July economic activity -7% below normal levels

                                        Bank of France said in the monthly report that economic activity is running -7% below normal levels in July. That follows -13.8% contraction in the economy in Q2.

                                        It also noted, in July, “industrial activity continued to recover, albeit at a more subdued pace compared to June”. “Services sector activity continued to expand, but at a slower rate than previous month”. “Construction sector activity continued to grow but decelerated.”

                                        For August, business leaders expect industry to “grow moderately”, services to “remain almost stable”, construction to “tick upwards”.

                                        Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose to -13.4

                                          Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose to -13.4 in August, up from -18.3, beat expectation of -15.2. It’s also the fourth increase in a row, and highest since February. Current Situation index rose to -41.3, up from -49.5, highest since March. Expectations, however, dropped slightly to 19.3, down from 19.5.

                                          Sentix said: “If one compares the development of the current situation following the financial crisis in 2009 with the recovery movement of the sentix economic indices this year, it is noticeable that the recovery of the current situation is very similar in terms of both level and timing. At that time, the expectations were also the first to rise. For a long time, the current situation values bobbed in the deep red range. It was not until summer 2009 that the economic indicators began to recover. The path in 2020 is now very similar, giving rise to the fantasy that the low point has definitely been passed and that the initiated recovery can continue.”

                                          Full release here.