July’s preliminary reading showed retail sales grew 3.3% mom in Australia. Sales rose in all states and territories except Victoria, coinciding with the resurgence of coronavirus cases and reintroduction of stage 3 restrictions.

“The rise across the rest of the country was driven by continued strength in household goods retailing, and the recovery in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services, and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing” said Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys.

Full release here.

Australia CBA PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly to 53.9 in August, down from 54.0. However, PMI Services sharply sharply by more than -10 pts to 48.1, down from 58.2, back in contraction. PMI Composite also tumbled to 48.8, down from 57.8, back in contraction too.

CBA Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird said: “The decline in business activity over August is hardly surprising given the lockdown measures in Victoria. With the August composite flash PMI only modestly in contractionary territory it is highly likely that outside of Victoria private output continued to expand over the month”.

“The fall in employment is the inevitable consequence of shutting down large parts of the Victorian economy. Encouragingly, firms collectively retain an optimistic view on the outlook despite the setback in Victoria. Ongoing fiscal support for households and businesses remains critical to ensuring that optimism is not misplaced”.

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Australia Westpac leading index rose slightly to -4.37% in July, up from -4.43%. The six-month annualized growth rate, remained in deep negative territory, consistent with recession. Nevertheless, a bottom was likely already reached in April’s -5.61%, while Q2 was already marked the low point in the growth cycle.

Overall, Westpac expected growth in Q3 to be flat. Victorian economy is expected to contract by -9% due to lockdown, which will offset the recovery in other states. It expects economy to grow 2.8% in Q4, on the assumption that Victoria moves through stage 4 to stage 2 restrictions, while other states could avoid second wave of coronavirus infections.

Westpac expects RBA to keep monetary policies unchanged on September 1. The next major event will be the Commonwealth Budget on October 6.

Full release here.