EU ready to negotiate, but UK said made a fundamental change first

    European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer said today “we stay ready to negotiate” with the UK on post Brexit trade deal. He added, “in order to come to an agreement, both sides need to meet and this is also obviously the case in this negotiation.”

    On the other hand, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman said, “what the UK’s chief negotiator needs to see is a clear assurance from the EU that it has made a fundamental change in approach to the talks and that this is going to be a genuine negotiation rather than one side being expected to make all of the moves.”

    Separately, UK Trade Minister Liz Truss said, “We’re intensifying negotiations so we are in a good position to move forward after the (U.S.) election… We want a deal that delivers for all parts of (Britain) and is forward-leaning in modern areas like tech & services.”

    BoE Vlieghe: Risk to monetary policy skew towards additional stimulus

      BoE External MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe said in speech, even though “policy rates and long-term interest rates are very low… investment is weak, vacancies are low”. Risks to economic outlook are “skewed towards a longer period of labour market slack with weak inflationary pressure”.

      Risks to monetary policy stance are therefore “skewed towards additional monetary stimulus.” Addition QE remain an “available policy tool”. But it’s “less potent now than in March, at the height of market disruption and uncertainty.”

      Vlieghe said the MPC has also been discussing of the use of negative interest rates. “Growing empirical literature finds that the effect has generally been positive,” he added. “Negative rates have not been counterproductive to the aims of monetary policy. The question for the MPC is “whether there is any reason to think that the UK experience might be different”.

      But his own view is “risk that negative rates end up being counterproductive to the aims of monetary policy is low.” Nevertheless, BoE is “not at a point yet when it can reach a conclusion on this issue.”

      Full speech here.

      New Zealand NZIER business confidence improved to -40

        New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence improved to -40 in Q3, up from -63. That is, a net 40% of firms surveyed expected deterioration in general business conditions, comparing to 63% a quarter ago. Own trading activity also turned position to +1, up from -37.

        “This result supports our expectations of a V-shaped recovery in economic activity, as the New Zealand economy responds to the unprecedented amount of stimulus measures implemented by the Government and Reserve Bank,” NZIER said.

        Full release here.

        RBA minutes confirm imminent easing, GBP/AUD to break 1.8411 resistance

          Minutes of RBA’s October meeting indicated that the board was already ready to push forward new easing measures. The announcement was delayed to November, partly for allowing the market to digest the Government’s budget, and partly for Governor Philip Lowe to outline the changes first.

          In short, the minutes noted that members continued to “consider how additional monetary easing could support jobs as the economy opens up further”. They “discussed the options of reducing the targets for the cash rate and the 3-year yield towards zero, without going negative, and buying government bonds further along the yield curve”. They believed that “these options would have the effect of further easing financial conditions in Australia”.

          Suggested readings on RBA:

          Australian Dollar trades broadly lower after today’s RBA minutes. EUR/AUD has taken out 1.6586 resistance yesterday already. The cross is now at least correcting the whole decline from 1.9799 to 1.6033, with 38.2% retracement at 1.7472 as target. Ideally, we should also see a firm break of 1.8411 resistance in GBP/AUD to double confirm the bearish reversal in Aussie. In the case, GBP/AUD would at least be correcting the fall from 2.0854 to 1.7493, with 38.2% retracement at 1.8777 as next near term target.

          RBA Kent: Interest rates could all go a little lower

            RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent’s comment in a webinar reinforced the case for further monetary easing at November 3 meeting. He noted that monetary easing could gain a bit more traction now as the economy was reopening, echoing previous comments by Governor Philip Low. Interest rates “could all go a little lower than they currently are”, referring to both the cash rate as well as the three-year yield target. While he declined to comment on whether RBA would extend the purchases of securities of longer maturity, he acknowledged that such a move could lower funding costs for both the governments and businesses.

            Regarding fiscal position, Kent said that “debt of course will rise with deficits but that’s part of the very crucial fiscal support that we are seeing.” “The key is not to focus on the potential change in the ratings that come from rising debt. Instead focus on the fact that the rising debt is very manageable,” he added.

            Fed Powell: Some quite difficult policy and operational questions of CBDC need to be thoroughly evaluated

              Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it’s “more important” for the US to “get it right than to be first” regarding Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). “Getting it right means that we not only look at the potential benefits of a CBDC, but also the potential risks, and also recognize the important trade offs that have to be thought through carefully,” he added.

              There are some “quite difficult policy and operational questions that need to be thoroughly evaluated”. He mentioned “the need to protect a CBDC from cyber attacks, counterfeiting and fraud, the question of how a CBDC would affect monetary policy and financial stability, and also how could a CBDC prevent illicit activity while also preserving user privacy and security.”

              ECB de Guindos: Countries want to avoid strict lockdowns as in March

                ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said recent economic data showed that economic recovery is losing momentum. He noted that EU countries are being hit by second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. But it “doesn’t look like countries want to impose strict lockdowns such as seen in March.”

                He also said mergers can improve banks’ profitability. “Removing cost excesses, over-capacity is more necessary than it was before the pandemic. Consolidation is a tool, it is not a goal in itself, but can be helpful in cost savings, in removing over-capacity.”

                EU Sefcovic: ready to work till last minute for a deal with UK

                  European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic said EU is “ready to work until the last minute for a good agreement” with UK for post Brexit relationship. Though he emphasized, “it has to be a fair agreement for both sides – we are not going to sign an agreement at any cost.”

                  UK Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove told EU in the weekend that “the ball is in your court” for making a deal. He insisted that UK will be “flexing every muscle to be match fit for January 1” and that the Government will not be “squeezed or sandbagged into acquiescing to anyone else’s agenda”.

                  China Q3 GDP growth missed expectations, but Sep data shine

                    China’s GDP grew 4.9% yoy in Q3, accelerated from Q2’s 3.2% qoq. Though, that fell short of expectation of 5.2% yoy. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 2.7% qoq, slowed from Q2’s 11.5% qoq.

                    September’s data were upbeat, nevertheless. Retail sales rose 3.3% yoy, speaking up from August’s 0.5% yoy and beat expectation of 1.8% yoy. Industrial production rose 6.9% yoy, up from August’s 5.6% yoy and beat expectation of 5.8% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 0.8% ytd yoy, turned positive.

                    ECB Lagarde: Stimulus cliff effects must be avoided

                      ECB President Christine Lagarde said the recovery from coronavirus pandemic “remains uncertain, uneven and incomplete”. Also, “new coronavirus-related restrictions currently being introduced across Europe will add to uncertainty for firms and households.”

                      Lagarde urged that “fiscal support and monetary policy support have to remain in place for as long as necessary and ‘cliff effects’ must be avoided.”

                      Separately, Governing Council member Klaas Knot said “At this moment, I don’t see any factors looming on the horizon that would make me think that interest rates will change significantly in the coming years”.

                      Japan’s export contraction improved in Sep, but imports still weak

                        In September, Japan’s exports dropped -4.9% yoy to JPY 6.06T. That’s the first single-digit decline in seven months, and a large improvement from August’s -14.8% drop. Though, imports remained weak and dropped -17.2% yoy to JPY 5.38T.

                        In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose 4.5% mom while imports rose 2.5% mom. Trade surplus widened slightly to JPY 0.48%, up fro JPY 0.36%. That’s notably smaller than expectation of JPY 0.85T.

                        Kuroda: BoJ’s framework already quite similar to Fed’s average inflation targeting

                          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank already has a framework that’s “quite similar” the Fed’s average inflation targeting. That is, to allow inflation to overshoot the 2% target. “We have no intention to change our inflation targeting policy and forward guidance,” he added.

                          On the economy, he remained fairly upbeat. “Japan’s economic activity is gradually bottoming out” as exports, output and private consumption pick up, Kuroda noted. “The lessons learnt from the current crisis will contribute to strengthening (Japan’s) growth potential”.

                          BoJ will announce monetary policy decision again on October 29. Most analysts expect no change but some argue that BoJ could extend the time frame of the pandemic measures beyond next March. Also, there might be a slight downward revision in growth outlook to reflect that the world is still facing risks of returning to lockdown.

                          US retails rose 1.9% in Sep, ex-auto sales up 1.5%

                            US retail sales rose 1.9% mom to USD 549.3B in September, much better than expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-auto sales also rose 1.5% mom, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-gasoline sales 1.9% mom. Ex-auto and gasoline sales rose 1.5% mom.

                            Full release here.

                            EU von der Leyen: Our team will go to London next week to intensify negotiations

                              Around an hour after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s comments on Brexit negotiations, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said “The EU continues to work for a deal, but not at any price”.

                              “As planned, our negotiation team will go to London next week to intensify these negotiations,” she said on Twitter.

                              EU summit chairman Charles Michel also said, “we are determined to get a deal but not at any price.” “The level playing field, fisheries and governance are very important topics for the EU.”

                              UK Johnson to EU: Come here if there’s some fundamental change of approach

                                UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the country should now get ready to leave EU without a new free trade deal. “Unless there’s a fundamental change of approach, we should go for the Australia solution.” Though, Johnson is not completely walking away from negotiations, as he added, “what we’re saying to them is come here, come to us, if there’s some fundamental change of approach.”

                                Earlier, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the U.K. is “disappointed and surprised” that the EU had watered down its commitment to intensifying the trade talks. “We have been told that it must be the U.K. that makes all of the compromises in the days ahead. That can’t be right in a negotiation so we are surprised by that.”

                                ECB Visco: We have to avoid too early withdrawals of policies

                                  ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said, policies have to remain extremely accommodating on the fiscal side as well as on the monetary side as we’re prepared to do for the euro area as a whole… We are here to consider the risks of stop and go and we will have to avoid too early withdrawals of policies. ”

                                  Also a Governing Council member, Francois Villeroy de Galhau reiterated the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme will “run until the crisis phase is over, and at least until next June.” “Given the uncertain situation today, it would be a mistake to decide an end date now” he added.

                                  ECB Rehn: Recovery best described as a truncated square root

                                    ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said, “some recent indicators, especially from the service sector, have been somewhat disappointing, which amplifies the downside risk to the economic recovery.” He added. “The shape of the recovery in my view could be best described as a truncated square root.”

                                    Rehn also noted Fed’s change to average inflation targeting. He said, “while price level targeting as suggested by (Former Fed Chair) Ben Bernanke or average inflation targeting is open to criticism from the point of view of communication, in this context is nevertheless worth exploring in depth.”

                                    He’s preferring a single-point inflation target rather than “below but close to 2%”. “This would also imply that we would accept inflation overshooting the point target or undershooting the point target for a period of time, as long as we’re on path to converging to our medium term, symmetric price stability target.”

                                    Eurozone exports dropped -12.2% yoy, imports dropped -13.5% yoy in Aug

                                      Eurozone exports of goods to the rest of the world dropped -12.2% yoy to EUR 156.3B in August. Imports dropped -13.5% yoy to EUR 141.6B. Eurozone record a EUR 14.7B trade surplus in goods. Intra Eurozone trade dropped -4.6% yoy to EUR 129.2B.

                                      In seasonably adjusted term, Eurozone exports rose 2.0% mom while imports rose 0.4% mom. Trade surplus widened to EUR 21.9B, beat expectation of EUR 18.1B.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Eurozone CPI finalized at -0.3% yoy in Sep, EU at 0.3% yoy

                                        Eurozone CPI was finalized at -0.3% yoy in September, down from August’s -0.2% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came from food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.34%), followed by services (+0.24%), non-energy industrial goods (-0.08%) and energy (-0.81%).

                                        EU CPI was finalized at 0.3% yoy, down from August’s 0.4% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-2.3%), Cyprus (-1.9%) and Estonia (-1.3%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Poland (3.8%), Hungary (3.4%) and Czechia (3.3%). Compared with August, annual inflation fell in thirteen Member States, remained stable in seven and rose in seven.

                                        Full release here.

                                        New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing rose to 54, growth not enough to recoup previous losses

                                          New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose to 54.0 in September, up from 41.0. Looking at some details, production rose from 51.6 to 56.5. Employment turned back to expansion, rose from 49.2 to 51.6. New orders surged sharply from 54.2 to 58.1.

                                          BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel said that “although the September PMI pushed above its long-term average of 53.0, it should not be confused with above average activity levels. Rather, it indicates growth off the low base set earlier in the year. Growth has not yet been enough to recoup previous loses, but some progress is being made”.

                                          Full release here.