Canada’s CPI accelerates to 2.9% yoy, driven by service sector price hikes

    Canada’s CPI recorded a notable increase in May, climbing to 2.9% yoy from 2.7% yoy the previous month, surpassing the anticipated rate of 2.6%. This acceleration in headline CPI was primarily fueled by a significant uptick in service prices, which rose by 4.6% yoy in May, following a 4.2% yoy increase in April.

    Diving deeper into the components, CPI median—which represents the midpoint of price changes—escalated from 2.6% yoy to 2.8% yoy, again outstripping the forecast of 2.6%. CPI trimmed, another measure that excludes extreme price movements, held steady at 2.9% yoy, also exceeding expectations of 2.8%. In contrast, CPI common, which reflects the common price changes across categories, slowed slightly from 2.6% yoy to 2.4% yoy, falling below the anticipated 2.6%.

    On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.6% mom in May, doubling the expected 0.3% mom increase. Similarly, the core CPI also increased by 0.6% mom, well above the forecast of 0.2%. This indicates a broader upward pressure on prices beyond just volatile categories.

    Full Canada CPI release here.

    NZ ANZ business confidence falls to 34.7, patchy economy

      New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence fell from 36.6 to 34.7 in February. Own activity outlook rose from 25.6 to 29.5. Inflation expectations fell from 4.28% to 4.03%. Pricing intentions eased from 50% to 48%, continuing their sideways trend of recent months. Cost expectations fell from 75.6 to 73.5. Wages expectation fell from 81.4 to 78.9.

      ANZ’s describes the economy as “patchy,” with visible “green shoots” in some sectors, yet acknowledges the “ongoing challenges” facing other segments. The survey does not imply the “economy is rolling over” or that “inflation has been beaten”.

      Full ANZ business confidence release here.

      BoE Bailey: Some further hike may be appropriate, but nothing is decided

        BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in a speech, “I would caution against suggesting either that we are done with increasing Bank Rate, or that we will inevitably need to do more”.

        “Some further increase in Bank Rate may turn out to be appropriate, but nothing is decided. The incoming data will add to the overall picture of the economy and the outlook for inflation, and that will inform our policy decisions.,” he added.

        Regarding the economy, he said that data since February meeting, is that the economy is “evolving much as we expected it to”.

        “Inflation has been slightly weaker, and activity and wages slightly stronger, though I would emphasise ‘slightly’ in both cases,” he said. “A further set of data will be coming in before our next monetary policy decision later this month.”

        Iran FM Zarif had “very good and constructive” meeting with EU Mogherini

          Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the meeting with European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini in Brussels was “very good and constructive”. Zarif also said that both sides were on the “right track” to ensure that the interests of the JCPOA’s “remaining participants, particularly Iran, will be preserved and guaranteed.” Zarif’s comments came before meeting with foreign ministers of Germany, France and the UK, on continuing the JCPOA nuclear agreement after US withdrawal.

          Separately, IRNA news agency quoted Iranian President Hassan Rouhani asking EU to stand against the US’ “illegal and illogical” actions of pulling out from JCPOA.

          BoE Mann: Important to dampen very robust inflation expectations

            BoE MPC member Catherine Mann said, “to me, the data was still showing very robust (inflation) expectations and I thought it was important to dampen those expectations using a 50 basis point increase.”

            “There was very little in the data that showed any diminution of expected wage increases, expected price increases or for that matter in financial markets … other than in gilts,” she added.

            Mann was among the four policymakers who voted for a 50bps at last BoE meeting, which lost to a 5-4 vote.

            US retail sales dropped -3.0% mom in Feb, ex-auto sales down -2.7% mom

              US retail sales dropped -3.0% mom to USD 561.7B in February, much worse than expectation of -0.5% mom. Ex-auto sales dropped -2.7% mom, versus expectation of -0.5% mom. Ex-gasoline sales dropped -3.5% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales dropped -3.3% mom.

              Full release here.

              Fed Logan: We shouldn’t lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates

                Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said, “we must remain prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated, if such a path is necessary to respond to changes in the economic outlook or to offset any undesired easing in conditions.”

                “And even after we have enough evidence that we don’t need to raise rates at some future meeting, we’ll need to remain flexible and tighten further if changes in the economic outlook or financial conditions call for it,” she added.

                “The most important risk I see is that if we tighten too little, the economy will remain overheated and we will fail to keep inflation in check,” Logan said. “That could trigger a self-fulfilling spiral of unanchored inflation expectations that would be very costly to stop.”

                “My own view is that, given the risks, we shouldn’t lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates,” she said.

                BoE Bailey: It’s right to smooth the pandemic economic over a number of years to come

                  BoE Governor Andrew Bailey supported Chancellor of Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s latest spending plans. He told BBC Radio, “it is absolutely sensible that public resources, resources of the state, are being used to cushion the huge impact of this absolutely unprecedented shock.” “We are smoothing the impact over a number of years to come, and that is the right thing to do,” he added.

                  Sunak admitted that borrowing and debt are at “record peacetime highs”. Also, the UK government is “on a path where that continues to be at a very elevated level, so that’s not a sustainable position,” “Once we get through this and we have more certainty about the economic outlook, we’ll need to look at how we can make sure we have a strong set of public finances,” he added.

                  ECB de Guindos: New wave of coronavirus in US a drag to global trade

                    ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warn the news about second wave of coronavirus infections form the US is “not good”, as well as from Latin American and parts of Asia. “This is going to have a negative impact on the evolution of world trade,” he added.

                    De Guindos also noted that ECB expected global trade to drop by more than -10% in 202. For Eurozone countries that relay on external demand, the decline in trade would be a drag to them.

                    BoJ Kuroda: We will continue with our current monetary easing

                      In an interview by Nikkei, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, “we will continue with our current monetary easing to support corporate funding, and stand ready to take additional easing measures without hesitation as needed.” He added that there is no plan to end the asset purchases or begin selling its holdings.

                      Most candidates in the race to replace Yoshihide Suga as LDP leader and Prime Minister are pushing for another big pandemic relief package. Kuroda said, “even if fiscal policy becomes more aggressive, interest rates will remain low and help enhance the effect of fiscal policy.”

                      “Even if fiscal policy becomes more aggressive, interest rates will remain low and help enhance the effect of fiscal policy,” he added.

                      Australia NAB business conditions dropped to -34, broad-based deterioration across industries

                        Australia NAB Business Confidence rose to -46 in April, up from -65. But that remain well below the trough of 1990s recession. Business Conditions, however, dropped to -34, down from -22, below the level seen in the 08/09 financial crisis. Looking at some details, trading conditions dropped form -19 to -33. Profitability conditions dropped from -28 to -35. Employment conditions also dropped from -20 to -35. Forward orders dropped from -28 to -36, suggesting activity is likely to weaken further in the near term.

                        Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist “confidence saw a rebound in the month after the sharp fall last month, but this provides little comfort given it remains around twice as weak as the 1990s recession. Business conditions declined further in the month, with a broad-based deterioration across industries”.

                        “We see a recovery in growth late this year, but even though it could be a solid bounce the level of output is not expected to be recovered to pre-COVID levels until early 2022. We expect unemployment to match this pattern, falling in 2021 but remaining above 7%. This all points to required ongoing policy support for some time” said Oster.

                        Full release here.

                        Trump didn’t anticipate much from this week’s US-China trade talk

                          On trade dispute with China, Trump said he had “no time frame” for ending it. While the Chinese delegation is arriving the US soon, Trump said he did not “anticipate much” from the discussions.

                          He emphasized that the resolution will “take time” because “China’s done too well for too long, and they’ve become spoiled. They dealt with people that, frankly, didn’t know what they were doing, to allow us to get into this position.”

                          BoE’s Pill signals rate cut discussions in upcoming meetings

                            BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill expressed growing confidence in the possibility of lowering interest rates and stated that the committee would start discussing it “over the next few meetings”.

                            “We’re growing more and more confident that we can begin to reduce the restriction that monetary policy is putting in the economy and start to cut interest rate,” Pill said at a Q&A session organized by the central bank yesterday.

                            Pill emphasized that the Bank is not quite ready to make these adjustments, stating, “We’re not quite there yet, and we need more evidence.”

                            Yet, he also mentioned, “In the absence of big new disturbances in the economy, we’re going to be thinking about moving interest rates over the next few meetings.”

                            This commentary came after the Bank’s decision to maintain the interest rate at 5.25%, a decision supported by an 8-2 vote. Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden joined Swati Dhingra, the usual dove, in voting for a rate cut, signaling a slight shift towards a more dovish stance within policy-setting committee.

                            Into US session: Canadian Dollar recovers ahead of BoC, FX decoupled from risk markets

                              Entering into US session, Sterling is trading as the weakest one today, followed by Japan Japanese Yen. On other hand, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar are generally higher. The forex markets seem to have decoupled from risk sentiments today. But we’d reckon recoupling soon. BoC rate decision will be a focus in US session and it’s widely expected to save bullet for October. US-Canada trade negotiation will resume in Washington today and that will also catch some attention.

                              In other markets, major European indices are in red today, with FTSE down -0.33%, DAX down -0.58%, CAC down -0.85%. Earlier today, Hong Kong HSI closed down -2.61%, China Shanghai SSE down -1.68%, Nikkei down -0.51% while Singapore Strait Times fell -1.69%. WTI crude oil once again failed to stay above 70 handle and is now back below 69. Gold is now defending 1190 as near term consolidation extends.

                              Euro in broad based selloff, another update on EUR/JPY short

                                Euro is suffering steep selloff just ahead of European session. In particular, EUR/USD’s break of 1.1507 support confirms medium term down trend resumption. The pair should be targeting 1.1186 fibonacci level next.

                                EUR/CHF is on course for 1.1366 support. Based on current momentum, the medium term correction from 1.2004 should be resuming for 1.1198 key support level before bottoming.

                                EUR/GBP also suffers steep pull back after failing 0.9043 fibonacci level. But for the cross, outlook stays bullish as long as 0.8854 support holds.

                                EUR/JPY’s break of 127.13 support confirms our view that corrective rise from 124.61 has completed with three waves up to 131.97 already. The larger fall from 137.49 could already be resuming.

                                Here is an update to our short position (sold at 128.60) as mentioned in prior comment. The development is in line with our expectations so far. We’ll hold short in EUR/JPY and lower the stop to 128.10 (slightly above 128.04 minor resistance). The stop is relatively wide for giving the position a bit of space to breathe in case of mild recovery. As noted before, we’re indeed eyeing at least a test on 124.61 low. We’re decide whether to take profit around there later, based on downside momentum in the cross.

                                ECB Schnabel: It’s appropriate to preserve financing conditions rather than ease much further

                                  Regarding the upcoming policy recalibration, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said it’s “appropriate to focus on preserving” the financing conditions, “rather than easing much further”. She emphasized, “if it’s necessary to do something that doesn’t meet market expectations, we have to do that nevertheless.”

                                  “I indeed hope this will be the last big push (on monetary stimulus”, but we can never know what’s going to happen,” she said. “There is a positive scenario where we get a swift recovery and the scarring is relatively limited. But there is also the risk of the crisis being more protracted.”

                                  She’s open to extending the PEPP window by 12 months to June 2021. On the topic of further rate cut, “there is no technical reason why this could not be lowered,” she said. “The question is whether this is considered appropriate.”

                                  Italy said to lower slash 2019 growth forecast, raise deficit target to 2.3-2.4% of GDP

                                    It’s widely reported today that Italy is going to cut 2019 growth forecast within this month. The government previously projected 1% growth this year and agreed to 2.04% budget deficit to GDP with EU.

                                    Reuters said Italy will lower GDP growth forecast to just 0.3-0.4%. Bloomberg went further and said it could be revised down to just 0.1%. The budget deficit target, could then be raised up to 2.3-2.4% of GDP.

                                    The final numbers will be approved by the Cabinet next week. But based on current situation, another clash with EU seems inevitable.

                                    ECB Liikanen: Time needed for underlying inflation to accelerate

                                      ECB Governing Council member, Finnish Central Bank Governor Erkki Liikanen, tells the Finnish parliament today that it takes time for underlying inflation in the Eurozone to accelerate. And that would support rise in headline inflation.

                                      Also, he pointed out that there was an exceptional amount of uncertainty on how ECB’s unconventional monetary policy worked out. However, loose policy is still necessary to boost inflation back to 2% target.

                                      Eurozone Sentix shows signs on stabilization, Asia ex-Japan on the rise

                                        Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved to -2.2 in March, up from -3.7 and beat expectation of -3.1. Current Situation index dropped from 10.8 to to 6.3, lowest since September 2016 and the seventh monthly decline. Expectations Index improved to -10.3, up from -17.3. Sentix noted that the indexes are “sending signs of stablisation” and “fueling hopes that there will be no recession. However, “it is too early to give the all-clear”.

                                        And, thematically “investors expect slight support from monetary policy in the coming months from a pause in the interest rate cycle. Nevertheless, the central bank policy barometer does not give the impression that a sustained easing of monetary policy is to be expected. On the one hand, a rapid comeback of the economy would also surprise the central bank and, on the other, investors expect inflationary pressures to rise again.

                                        On development to now in the strong improvement in Asia ex-Japan. Overall Investor Confidence index rose 9.9 to 15.3, highest since August 2018. Current Situation index rose from 22.3 to 24.5. Expectations index rose from -1.8 to 6.5, highest since March 2018. Sentix noted that the Chinese “government’s measures to stimulate economic growth both in fiscal and monetary terms are well received by the investors surveyed by Sentix.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Japan tankan capex surged, PMI manufacturing improved

                                          Economic data released from Japan today are not bad. Based on the results of the Tankan survey, it’s unlikely for BoJ to ease monetary further. Yet, it’s not time for the central bank to start stimulus exit too.

                                          • Large manufacturing index was unchanged at 19 versus expectation of a drop to 17.
                                          • Large manufacturing outlook dropped notably by -4 to 15, missed expectation of 16.
                                          • Large non-manufacturing index rose 2pts to 24, above expectation of 21.
                                          • Large non-manufacturing outlook also rose 2pts to 24, above expectation of 20.
                                          • Large all industry capex rose 14.3% in Q4, beat expectation of 12.7%.

                                          PMI manufacturing improved to 52.4, up from 52.2 and beat expectation of 52.3. Markit noted that “new order growth accelerates despite exports declining to sharpest extent in over two years”. However, “business confidence drops for seventh straight month to lowest since October 2016”.

                                          Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, said in the release that “Japan’s manufacturing sector closed 2018 with a strong finish.” But the data also “bring some cautious undertones to the fore,”. In particular “Export orders declined at the fastest pace in over two years, while total demand picked up only modestly. Confidence also continued to fall, a seventh straight month in which this has now occurred.” He added “the prospects heading into 2019 ahead of the sales tax hike still appear skewed to the downside.”