In-person Brexit trade talks to resume this weekend

    It’s reported that in-person Brexit trade talks are to resume in London this weekend. But firstly, it’s unsure if EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier would attend. Secondly, a UK government spokesman also said “it’s for the EU to decide when and if they come.”

    UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak reiterated that “it is preferable” to get a deal. But, again, “we absolutely should not be stretching for a deal at any cost, that is not the right thing to do.”

    Barnier said earlier that further further negotiations would be pointless if the UK was not willing to compromise on the outstanding issues.

    ECB Panetta open to case-by-case resumption of bank dividend payouts

      Executive Board member Fabio Panetta told Portuguese newspaper Expresso that he’s open to allowing some banks to resume paying dividends. Nevertheless, “if they don’t distribute dividends this year, they can distribute more next year and in the meantime they will be in a better position to face a situation of serious crisis”.

      “If I had to choose between the two approaches, I would opt to be more prudent, but that could imply a cost for banks,” he said. “I consider that a reasonable solution, as economic conditions improve, would be a case-by-case approach by banking supervision authorities.”

      BoC Macklem: The very rapid growth of reopening is over

        BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told a parliamentary committee that “the very rapid growth of the reopening phase is now over”. The economy has “has entered in the slower-growth recuperation phase”. GDP would have shrunk around -5.5% in 2020 and it’s expected to grow around 4% in 2021 and 2022.

        Growth is anticipated to be “uneven across sectors and choppy over time”. Business investment will “remain subdued” and exports to “grow only slowly”. The economy will still be operating its potential into 2023. Inflation is expected to stay below the 1-3% target range “until early next year”, and remain less than 2% “into 2023”.

        Interest rate will remain at 0.25%, the effective lower bound “for an extended period”. BoC has committed to keep it there “until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved”. In the current outlook “this takes us into 2023”. The QE program all also “continue until the recovery is well underway”.

        Full remarks here.

        ECB accounts: Warranted to recalibrate the monetary policy instruments in Dec

          In the account of October 28-29 ECB meeting, it’s noted that “risks surrounding the growth outlook to be clearly tilted to the downside”. The assessment “largely reflected the recent resurgence in COVID-19 infections, the associated intensification of containment measures and the high uncertainty surrounding the timeline of the pandemic and the implications for economic and financial conditions.”

          “Given the sharper slowdown in growth momentum and the weakening of underlying inflation dynamics compared with what had previously been expected, as well as the deterioration in the balance of risks, it would be warranted to recalibrate the monetary policy instruments in December.”

          However, it’s noted that more than half of the PEPP envelope was still available in case of “renewed market turbulence”. “By the time of the December meeting, updated staff projections would be available and a clearer picture of the dynamics of the pandemic and prospects of a vaccine might have emerged, together with more information on the fiscal policy responses in the euro area.”

          Full accounts here.

          BoE Bailey: It’s right to smooth the pandemic economic over a number of years to come

            BoE Governor Andrew Bailey supported Chancellor of Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s latest spending plans. He told BBC Radio, “it is absolutely sensible that public resources, resources of the state, are being used to cushion the huge impact of this absolutely unprecedented shock.” “We are smoothing the impact over a number of years to come, and that is the right thing to do,” he added.

            Sunak admitted that borrowing and debt are at “record peacetime highs”. Also, the UK government is “on a path where that continues to be at a very elevated level, so that’s not a sustainable position,” “Once we get through this and we have more certainty about the economic outlook, we’ll need to look at how we can make sure we have a strong set of public finances,” he added.

            German Gfk consumer sentiment dropped to -6.7, significantly dampened by partial lockdown

              Germany Gfk Consumer Sentiment for December dropped to -6.7, down from -3.2, as sentiment was “significantly dampened by the partial lockdown”. November’s economic expectations dropped from 7.1 to -0.2, lowest since May. Income expectations dropped from 9.8 to 4.6. Propensity to buy also dropped from 37.0 to 30.5.

              “Though stores will remain open, the renewed shutdown of the hotel, restaurant and events industry – as well as the already struggling tourism industry – has had a serious impact on the consumer climate,” explains Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at GfK. “As a result, any hope we still had in early summer of a rapid recovery is now lost. Growing uncertainty has once again led to an increase in propensity to save, another factor which has contributed to the decline in the consumer climate.”

              Full release here.

              Australia total private capital expenditure dropped -3% in Q3

                Australia total new capital expenditure dropped -3.0% in Q3 to AUD 25.85B, hitting the lowest level since 2007. Buildings and structures expenditure dropped -3.7% to AUD 13.76B. Equipment, plant and machinery expenditure dropped -2.2% to AUD 12.09B.

                Full release here.

                New Zealand trade deficit at NZD 501m as imports and exports plunged

                  New Zealand goods exports dropped -4.4% yoy to NZD 4.8B in October. Exports to China, Australian Japan declined, and rose to US and EU. Imports dropped -13.0% yoy to NZD 503B. Imports from all major partners declined, including China, EU, Australia, USA and Japan. Monthly trade deficit came in at NZD -501m, in line with expectations.

                  Annual trade surplus reached a 28-year high of NZD 2.2B in the year ended October. “This is the largest annual surplus since the July 1992 year, driven mainly by much lower imports after the global COVID-19 pandemic hit, while New Zealand’s exports have held up,” international trade manager Alasdair Allen said.

                  Full release here.

                  Fed discussed updating guidance on asset purchases

                    Minutes of November FOMC minutes noted that the asset purchases will continue “over coming months”. At the same time, “most participants judged that the Committee should update this guidance at some point and implement qualitative outcome-based guidance that links the horizon over which the Committee anticipates it would be conducting asset purchases to economic conditions. ”

                    However, “a few participants were hesitant to make changes in the near term to the guidance for asset purchases and pointed to considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook and the appropriate use of balance sheet policies given that uncertainty.”

                    On adjusting the asset purchases to provide more accommodation if needed, it could be done by increasing the pace of purchases or by shifting its Treasury purchases to those with a longer maturity without increasing the size of its purchases.” Or alternative, more accommodation could be done “by conducting purchases of the same pace and composition over a longer horizon.”

                    Full minutes here.

                    US GDP grew 33.1% annualized in Q3

                      US GDP grew 33.1% annualized in Q3, according to the second estimate, comparing to Q2’s -31.4% annualized contraction. With the second estimate, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and exports were offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up.

                      Full release here.

                      US durable goods orders rose 1.3%, six straight months of increase

                        US durable goods orders rose 1.3% mom to USD 240.8B in October. That’s the six consecutive months of increase. Ex-transport orders rose 1.3% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 0.2% mom. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, rose 1.2% mom.

                        Full release here.

                        US initial jobless claims rose to 778k, continuing claims dropped to 6.1m

                          US initial jobless claims rose 30k to 778k in the week ending November 21. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 5k to 748.5k. Continuing claims dropped -229k to 6071k in the week ending November 14. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -438k to 6165k.

                          Full release here.

                          EU von der Leyen: Well prepared for a no-deal Brexit scenario

                            European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said there were “genuine progress” in post-Brexit negotiations with the UK. She emphasized that “the next days are going to be decisive,” on whether a deal could be clinched.

                            “With very little time ahead of us, we will do all in our power to reach an agreement. We are ready to be creative. But we are not ready to put into question the integrity of our single market,” she added.

                            “We need to establish robust mechanisms, ensuring that competition is – and remains – free and fair over time. In the discussions about state aid, we still have serious issues, for instance when it comes to enforcement,” said von der Leyen.

                            She also reiterated, “the European Union is well prepared for a no-deal-scenario, but of course we prefer to have an agreement.”

                            ECB Mersch: Recalibration could be rectification or more targeted and focused

                              ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch said in an interview that the second coronavirus lockdown in European has been “much less growth-damaging and much more targeted “. Still there is an “increase in fragmentation”, with divergence between services and manufacturing sectors. Some countries are more exposed to the pandemic consequences.

                              Overall, it’s “difficult to maintain positive growth going into the fourth quarter”. Germany might achieve it but others not. But it’s “premature to conclude that will last into next year with consecutive quarters of negative growth.

                              On ECB’s policies, Mersch said recalibration could be rectification, “simply an extension “on the time axis” or “of the volume or the intensity”. A second approach is “more targeted, or more focused, or on the contrary consider now untested instruments, a theoretical possibility in an all encompassing discussion.”

                              Full interview here.

                              RBNZ Orr: Financial system not been tested as severely as it could have been

                                RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the New Zealand economy has been “relatively resilient” to the economic shock from the pandemic so far. The financial system “has not been tested as severely as it could have been”. However, he warned, “businesses domestically and internationally face ongoing challenges as fiscal support measures unwind, which will lead to an increase in loan impairments for banks.”

                                On the topic of house prices, Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said, “high leverage in the housing sector poses risks if house prices fall sharply or unemployment rises, reducing the ability to service loans”. Hence, RBNZ “intends to re-impose LVR restrictions to guard against continued growth in high-risk lending and ensure that banks remain resilient to a future housing market downturn.”

                                Fed Williams: Bond purchases serving their purposes really well right now

                                  New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday that the asset purchases are “serving their purposes really well right now”. The purchases are providing support for smooth market conditions, as well as holding down longer-term yields. The program could be adjusted if needed, but he gave no indication for the need of imminent change. .

                                  On negative interest rates, Williams said they are “a possible option but I think have less benefits relative to costs. Forward guidance and asset purchases would continued to be the “primary tools for policy”.

                                  Separately, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said “there’s light at the end of the tunnel” with vaccine developments. “In terms of being able to see the end of the crisis, that’s very much a realistic view at this point.”

                                  DOW broke 30k as investors welcome Yellen as US treasury secretary

                                    US stocks broke out of range overnight to extend recent record run, with DOW closing at all time high at 30046.24, up 1.54%. Investors cheered the news that former Fed Chair Janet Yellen was picked by Joe Biden as the next Treasury Secretary. Yellen’s position on loose fiscal policy was clear, as she support continuation of extraordinary fiscal support, beyond necessary. Also, as Fed’s interest will stay low for many years to come, the government can afford to have more debt.

                                    With the current rally resumption, DOW is now close to 38.2% projection of 18213.65 to 29119.35 at 26143.77 at 30340.30. Sustained break there will be seen as a vote of confidence on the sustainability of the up trend, and pave the way to 61.8% projection at 32932.93 next. However, rejection by this projection level, would turn focus back to 55 day EMA (now at 28333.92) instead.

                                    US consumer confidence dropped to 96.1, not foreseeing strength in economy next year

                                      US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to 96.1 in November, down from 101.4, missed expectation of 98.3. Present Situation Index dropped from 106.2 to 105.9. Expectations Index dropped notably from 98.2 to 89.5.

                                      “Consumer confidence declined in November, after remaining virtually flat in October,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions held steady, though consumers noted a moderation in business conditions, suggesting growth has slowed in Q4. Heading into 2021, consumers do not foresee the economy, nor the labor market, gaining strength. In addition, the resurgence of COVID-19 is further increasing uncertainty and exacerbating concerns about the outlook.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      BoE Haskel: there will be long-term scarring effects even if vaccine comes

                                        BoE policymaker Jonathan Haskel said recent vaccine development offered some light at the end of the tunnel for the UK. However, even if the vaccine comes, there will be “long-term scarring” effects. Such effects are hard to scale for now.

                                        Haskel also said the central is not running out of policy tools. It still have plenty that can be down in terms of firepower.

                                        Germany Ifo business climate dropped to 90.7 expectations plunged on return of pandemic uncertainty

                                          Germany Ifo Business Climate dropped to 90.7 in November, down from 92.7, missed expectation of 90.8. Current Assessment index dropped slightly to 90.0, down from 90.3, above expectation of 97.4. Expectations index plunged sharply to 91.5, down from 95.0, missed expectation of 93.8.

                                          Ifo said: “The drop was due above all to companies’ considerably more pessimistic expectations. Their assessments of the current situation were also a little worse. Business uncertainty has risen. The second wave of coronavirus has interrupted Germany’s economic recovery.”

                                          Full release here.