UK PMI services finalized at 47.6, composite at 49.0

    UK PMI Services was finalized at 47.6 in November, down from October’s 51.4. It’s the first contraction reading in five months. PMI Composite was finalized at 49.0, down from October’s 52.1, first contraction since June amid national lockdowns. Markit also noted the fastest drop in employment for three months. Though, year-ahead business optimism hit nine-month high.

    Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “New lockdown measures and tighter pandemic restrictions unsurprisingly tipped UK private sector output back into decline during November…. Hopes that the pandemic will be brought under control from an effective vaccine resulted in a sharp improvement in business optimism during November. Across the UK private sector as a whole, confidence about the year ahead outlook reached its highest since March 2015. That said, survey respondents also cited rising business uncertainty in the short-term, largely due to ongoing restrictions on trade, which contributed to another round of job cuts and efforts to rein in discretionary spending during November.”

    Full release here.

    Eurozone PMI services finalized at 41.7, composite at 45.3

      Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 41.7 in November, down from October’s 46.9. PMI Composite was finalized at 45.3, down from prior month’s 50.0. Looking at some members states, Germany PMI Composite dropped to 51.7, Ireland dropped to 47.7, Italy dropped to 42.7, Spain dropped to 41.7, France dropped to 40.6.

      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “The eurozone economy slipped back into a downturn in November as governments stepped up the fight against COVID-19, with business activity hit once again by new restrictions to fight off second waves of virus infections… However, this is a decline of far smaller magnitude than seen in the spring… The fourth quarter will nevertheless likely see the eurozone economy take another major step backwards, with especially steep downturns suffered in France, Spain and Italy.”

      Full release here.

      China PMI services rose to 57.8, second highest in a decade

        China Caixin PMI Services rose to 57.8 in November, up from 56.7, above expectation of 56.5. It’s also the second quickest expansion rate since April 2010. Employment growth was strongest since October 2010 while input costs rose at sharpest pace for over a decade. PMI Composite rose from 55.7 to 57.5, best reading since March 2010.

        Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “We expect the economic recovery in the post-epidemic era to continue for several months. At the same time, deciding how to gradually withdraw the easing policies launched during the epidemic will require careful planning as uncertainties still exist inside and outside China.”

        Full release here.

        Australia exports rose 5% mom in Oct, imports rose 1% mom

          In October, Australia’s exports of goods and services rose 5% mom to AUD 35.72B. Imports of goods and services rose 1% mom to AUD 28.26B. Trade surplus came in at AUD 7.46B, above expectation of AUD 5.83B.

          AiG Performance of Construction Index rose 2.6 pts to 55.3 in November, a second consecutive month of positive conditions, and the strongest monthly result since April 2018.

          Group Head of Policy, Peter Burn, said: “The Australian construction sector grew more strongly in November with both activity and employment decisively stronger in the month. House building was the cornerstone of the lift in performance with support from commercial and engineering construction. Apartment building remains in the contractionary state it has been in for more than two years and, with question marks over population growth and falling new orders, this sector is the major dampener on the otherwise encouraging outlook for the broader construction sector.

          BoJ Suzuki: Desirable for the yield curve for super-long-term JGBs to become steeper

            BoJ board member Hitoshi Suzuki said in a speech that the Japanese economy “remained in a severe situation”. Business fixed investment has been on a “declining trend” on deterioration in corporate profits and over uncertainties. Such down trend is “likely to continue for the time being”. Weakness can also be seen in employment.

            On monetary policy, Suzuki said it’s “desirable for the yield curve for super-long-term JGBs to become steeper at a moderate pace with the Bank keeping 10-year JGB yields at around 0 percent, in that financial institutions can improve profits on their investment and the Bank can achieve financial system stability while monetary easing is prolonged.”

            Full speech here.

            ECB Lane: Biggest challenge is making adjust to a mixed reality

              ECB Chief Economic Philip Lane said in an interview that “the fact that it looks like the vaccines are on their way confirms our baseline scenario and makes it less likely that we will have more severe scenarios.” But “trick” is the Europe is “in the middle of the second wave” of the pandemic and it’s going to be a “mixed reality”. The biggest challenge is “making that adjustment: to realize and to benefit later in 2021 from as widespread vaccination as possible but, in the meantime, to reconcile the need to control the virus with the importance of supporting the economy.”

              On monetary policy, Lane said, “if we can keep financing conditions where they are these days, at a low level, that supports the economic recovery and offsetting the pandemic shock to inflation. And in that world – we know and we’ve been saying that –,for example, fiscal policy can be very powerful. In a world with low interest rates, the multiplier effect of fiscal policy can be quite high, compared with normal conditions.”

              Full interview here.

              US ADP employment grew 307k, pace continues to slow

                US ADP employment grew 307k in November, well below expectation of 500k. By company size, small businesses added 110k jobs, medium businesses 139k, large businesses 58k. By sector, goods-producing jobs grew 31k, service-providing jobs grew 276k.

                “While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Job growth remained positive across all industries and sizes.”

                Full release here.

                Eurozone PPI at 0.4% mom, -2.0% yoy in Oct

                  Eurozone PPI came in at 0.4% mom, -2.0% yoy in October, versus expectation of 0.1% mom, -2.3% yoy. Industrial producer prices increased by 1.4% mom in the energy sector and by 0.1% mom for intermediate goods, capital goods and non-durable consumer goods, while prices remained stable for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.1% mom.

                  EU PPI came in at 0.3% mom, -2.0% yoy. The highest increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Belgium (3.7% mom), Ireland (2.1% mom) and Croatia (1.1% mom), while the largest decreases were observed in Denmark (-2.4% mom), Cyprus (-0.5% mom), Spain and Latvia (both -0.4% mom).

                  Full release here.

                  Eurozone unemployment dropped to 8.4% in Oct EU unchanged at 7.6%

                    Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to 8.4% in October, down from 8.5%, matched expectations. There were 13.825m unemployed in Eurozone, down -86k for the month.

                    EU unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6% in October, 16.236m were unemployment, down -91k comparing to September.

                    Full release here.

                    RBNZ Orr: Actual use of negative rates depends on economic context at the time

                      RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said in a speech that “monetary policy has been effective to date in supporting both inflation and employment as intended – at least at the aggregate level.”

                      New monetary policy tools will become “increasingly mainstream” in environment of low global inflation and low neutral interest rate.. But “price stability and contributing to maximum employment remain the targets for monetary policy,” after all.

                      Orr also reiterated that RBNZ “focused on being operationally ready to implement a negative OCR if necessary”. But, “its actual use will always depend on the economic context at the time, and its relative efficacy.”

                      Full speech here.

                      RBA Lowe: Australian economy has now turned the corner

                        In the remarks to a House committee, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said Australia has “now turned the corner” after an extremely difficult year, and economy recovery is “underway”. “The economic news has, on balance, been better than we were expecting. RBA is expected GDP growth to be “solidly positive” in both Q3 and Q4, followed by 5% growth over 2021 and 4% over 2022.

                        “Recent medical breakthroughs give us some hope that things will work out better than this,” Lowe added. “If so, confidence would lift and there would be a further easing of restrictions. The result would be an upside surprise to growth and jobs, especially given the significant policy stimulus that is already in place, the generally strong balance sheets and the substantial government incentives for businesses to employ people and invest.”

                        On monetary policy, Lowe said the movement in market prices in response to the package announced in November was “broadly as we expected”. The board will “continue to review the details of this package” and policymakers are “prepared to do more, if that is required”. But he reiterated that negative interest rate is “extraordinarily unlikely, with any benefits being outweighed by the costs”

                        Full remarks here.

                        Australia GDP grew 3.3% qoq in Q3, technically out of recession

                          Australia GDP grew 3.3% qoq in Q3, above expectation of 2.5% qoq. Household spending drove the rebound by rising 7.9%. Final consumption expenditure rose 5.9%. Total gross fixed capital formation dropped -0.1%. Exports dropped -3.2% while imports rose 6.5%.

                          Head of National Accounts at the ABS, Michael Smedes said: “Following the record 7.0 per cent decline in the June quarter, Australia experienced a partial recovery in the September quarter. As a result, economic activity fell 3.8 per cent through the year to September quarter.”

                          Full release here.

                          Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said, “facing a once-in-a-century pandemic that has caused the greatest economic shock since the Great Depression, Australia has performed better on the health and economic fronts than nearly any other country in the world.”

                          “Technically, Australia’s recession may be over, but Australia’s economic recovery is not,” he said. “There is a lot of ground to make up and many Australian households and many Australian businesses are doing it tough – very tough.”

                          BoJ Amamiya: Will extend the duration of COVID-response measures if needed

                            BoJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said the current “powerful easing” is exerting an “intended effect” on the economy. Private consumption was gradually picking up, and likely to continue recovery. However, he expected corporate finance to remain under stress as “economic improvement to be moderate”.

                            “The BOJ will closely watch the impact of COVID-19 for the time being and take additional easing steps without hesitation as needed,” he added. “Will extend the duration of COVID-response measures beyond March deadline as needed, with an eye on pandemic impact on economy.”

                            Fed Daly assuming a slow grinding recovery persists

                              San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she’s assuming “a slow grinding recovery persists until we have the virus fully behind us. And that’s “predicated on a vaccine that is widely available and distributed.”

                              At the same time, monetary policy is “in a good place”. “It is not the time to stimulate the economy aggressively and get people out in the economy because that would be unsafe,” she added.

                              “We are thinking hard about what does the economy need and … when can we shift gears mentally… from building a bridge to actually trying to stimulate the economy into a strong recovery,” she said. “And we are not there yet.”

                              Fed Powell: Difficult to assess economic implications of coronavirus vaccines

                                In the testimony before a Senate Committee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned “the rise in new COVID-19 cases, both here and abroad, is concerning and could prove challenging for the next few months.” And, “a full economic recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities.

                                New on vaccine is “very positive for the medium term”. But “significant challenges and uncertainties remain, including timing, production and distribution, and efficacy across different groups”. Hence, remains “difficult” to assess the timing and scope of respective economic implications.

                                Full remarks here.

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                                US ISM manufacturing dropped to 57.5, employment dropped to 48.4

                                  US ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 57.5 in November, down from 59.3, matched expectations. The second stayed in expansion for the seventh month a in row, after a contraction in April.

                                  New orders dropped -2.8 to 65.1. Production dropped -2.2 to 60.8. Employment dropped -4.8 to 48.4, back below 50. Prices dropped -0.1 to 65.4.

                                  ISM said: “The manufacturing economy continued its recovery in November. Survey Committee members reported that their companies and suppliers continue to operate in reconfigured factories, but absenteeism, short-term shutdowns to sanitize facilities and difficulties in returning and hiring workers are causing strains that will likely limit future manufacturing growth potential. Panel sentiment, however, is optimistic (2.5 positive comments for every cautious comment), an improvement compared to October.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Canada GDP grew 0.8% mom in Sep, still -5% below pre-pandemic level

                                    Canada GDP grew 0.8% mom in September, slightly below expectation of 0.9% mom. That’s, nonetheless, still the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Overall total economic activity was also still -5% below February’s pre-pandemic level. Both goods-producing (0.7%) and services-producing (0.8%) industries were up as 16 of 20 industrial sectors posted increases in September.

                                    Looking ahead, preliminary information indicates just around 0.2% increase in real GDP for October.

                                    Full release here.

                                    OECD forecast global growth at 4.2% in 2021, 3.7% in 2022

                                      The OECD said in its latest Economic Outlook report that the global economy will grow 4.2% in 2021, after contracting -4.2% this year. Growth is then expected to slow to 3.7% in 2022.

                                      • US GDP is expected to contract -11.2% in 2020, rise 4.2% in 2021, then 4.1% in 2022.
                                      • Eurozone GDP is expected to contract -7.5% in 2020, rise 4.6% in 2021 and then 3.3% in 2022.
                                      • China’s GDP is expected to grow 1.8% in 2020, surge to 8.0% in 2021, and then slow to 4.9% in 2022.

                                      OECD added: “The recovery would be stronger if vaccines are rolled out fast, boosting confidence and lowering uncertainty. Delays to vaccination deployment, difficulties controlling new virus outbreaks and failure to learn lessons from the first wave would weaken the outlook.”

                                      “We’re not out of the woods. We’re still in the midst of a pandemic crisis, which means that policy still has a lot to do,” said OECD chief economist Laurence Boone.

                                      Full report here.

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                                      ECB Schnabel: It’s appropriate to preserve financing conditions rather than ease much further

                                        Regarding the upcoming policy recalibration, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said it’s “appropriate to focus on preserving” the financing conditions, “rather than easing much further”. She emphasized, “if it’s necessary to do something that doesn’t meet market expectations, we have to do that nevertheless.”

                                        “I indeed hope this will be the last big push (on monetary stimulus”, but we can never know what’s going to happen,” she said. “There is a positive scenario where we get a swift recovery and the scarring is relatively limited. But there is also the risk of the crisis being more protracted.”

                                        She’s open to extending the PEPP window by 12 months to June 2021. On the topic of further rate cut, “there is no technical reason why this could not be lowered,” she said. “The question is whether this is considered appropriate.”

                                        Eurozone CPI unchanged at -0.3% yoy, core CPI at 0.2% yoy

                                          Eurozone CPI was unchanged at -0.3% yoy in November, versus expectation of 0.2% yoy. Core CPI was unchanged at 0.2% yoy. Looking at the main components, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in November (1.9%, compared with 2.0% in October), followed by services (0.6%, compared with 0.4% in October), non-energy industrial goods (-0.3%, compared with -0.1% in October) and energy (-8.4%, compared with -8.2% in October).

                                          Full release here.