Gold losing some momentum after hitting 1950, still in rally

    Gold edged higher to 1955.14 earlier today and appears to be losing some upside momentum. Nevertheless, there is no clear sign of topping yet. Current rise from 1764.31 is still on track to take on 1965.65 resistance next. Firm break there will pave the way to retest 2075.18 high. The momentum after taking out 1965.65 could reveal the chance of resuming larger up trend.

    Though, rejection by 1965.50, followed by break of 1934.12 minor support, would prompt a corrective pull back. Gold might correct towards 1906.74 resistance turned support in this case, before staging another rise.

    China Caixin PMI services dropped to 56.3, recovery to continue for several months

      China Caixin PMI Services dropped to 56.3 in December, down from 57.8, missed expectation of 58.1. Markit said that business activity and new orders both increased at softest rates for three months. Though, optimism towards the year ahead edged up to highest since April 2011. The sharp rise in costs drove steepest increase in output charges for nearly 13 years.

      PMI Composite dropped to 55.8, from a more than 10-year high of 57.5. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “Looking ahead, we expect the post-epidemic economic recovery to continue for several months, and macroeconomic indicators will be stronger over the next six months due to the low bases in the first half of 2020. Entrepreneurs were confident about further improvement to the economy in the upcoming year.

      “Meanwhile, we need to pay attention to the mounting pressure on costs brought by the increase in raw material prices and its adverse impact on employment, which is particularly important to figuring out how to exit the stimulus policies implemented during the epidemic.”

      Full release here.

      Fed Evans: 3% inflation would not be so bad

        In an online meeting of the American Economic Association, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that “if we got 3% inflation that would not be so bad,” if it’s not accelerating out of control. Also, with structurally low interest rates pulling down on inflation, “it is very difficult to imagine out of control inflation, even with the large debt that fiscal authorities have been running up.”

        In the prepared remarks, Evans also said financial stability objectives are ” best addressed through supervision and regulation rather than through monetary policy tools”.

        “The reality that the effective lower bound is no longer an unusual occurrence prompted the FOMC to embark on a comprehensive review of its monetary policy framework and make changes in our monetary policy strategy”, he added.

        “Perhaps it is time for financial institutions and their supervisors to do the same—that is, review their business models and make their supervisory and regulatory strategies as robust and resilient as possible—in this low nominal interest rate environment.”

        Full remarks here.

        US ISM manufacturing rose to 60.7, highest since Aug 2018

          US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 60.7 in December, up from 57.5, above expectation of 56.5. That’s also the higest reading since August 2018. Looking at some details, new orders rose 2.8 to 67.9. Production rose 4.0 to 64.8. Employment also rose 3.1 to 51.5, back above 50. Prices surged 12.2 to 77.6.

          ISM said: “The manufacturing economy continued its recovery in December. Survey Committee members reported that their companies and suppliers continue to operate in reconfigured factories, but absenteeism, short-term shutdowns to sanitize facilities and difficulties in returning and hiring workers are causing strains that are limiting manufacturing growth potential. However, panel sentiment remains optimistic (three positive comments for every cautious comment), an improvement compared to November.”

          Full release here.

          EUR/CHF to gyrate lower despite positive German data

            Economic data from Germany are generally positive. Retail sales rose 1.9% mom in November, versus expectation of -2.2% mom contraction. Destatis added that retail turnover in 202 is expected to be between 3.9% and 4.3% higher than in 2019.

            Unemployment dropped -37k in December, versus expectation of 10k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%, versus expectation of 6.2%.

            Euro has little reactions to the data. EUR/CHF’s choppy decline from 1.0890 is still in progress for 1.0737 support. Break will suggest completion of whole rise from 1.0658 and bring deeper fall back to this support. This will remain the favor case for now, as long as 1.0830 minor resistance holds.

            GBP/AUD heading back to 1.7423 low as recovery completed

              GBP/AUD’s breach of 1.7587 minor support today suggests that recovery from 1.7423 has completed at 1.7923. The cross is staying well below falling 55 day EMA, keeping outlook bearish. Deeper fall could now be seen to retest 1.7423 low first. Break will resume whole down trend from 2.0854 for 38.2% projection of 2.0854 to 1.7493 from 1.8526 at 1.7242.

              If that happens, underlying strength in the Aussie would be further affirmed in AUD/USD breaks through 0.7741 temporary top.

              Swiss CPI dropped to -0.8% yoy in Dec, on holiday packages, petroleum and air transport

                Swiss CPI dropped -0.1% mom in December, below expectation of 0.0% mom. The monthly decrease can be explained by several factors including falling prices for international package holidays. Medicines also recorded a price decrease, as did fruiting vegetables. In contrast, prices for heating oil and air transport increased.

                Annually, CPI dropped further to -0.8% yoy, below expectation of -0.7% yoy. This decrease is due in particular to lower prices for international package holidays, petroleum products and for air transport. In contrast, prices for housing rentals and new cars increased. Prices for domestic products remained stable on average, those for imported products decreased by 2.9%.

                Full release here.

                CAD/JPY’s recovery might have completed at 81.18

                  CAD/JPY’s mild decline this week, with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, argues that corrective recovery from 80.12 might have completed at 81.18 already. Focus will be on 80.12 support for the next few days. Break there will resume whole fall from 82.10 to 79.22 support first. Also, such development, if happens, will bring CAD/JPY firmly back below 55 day EMA. That could prompt deeper selling back to the bottom of prior range at 77.91. Nevertheless, above 81.18 would extend the recovery to retest 82.10 high instead.

                  GBP/JPY dips as UK announced toughest nationwide coronavirus lockdown

                    UK announced the toughest nationwide coronavirus lockdown since March, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that weeks ahead will be “the hardest yet”. The lockdown will last for at least seven weeks into mid-February. All non-essential shops and schools are closed while people are told to stay at home. The UK was entering “the last phase of the struggle”, Johnson said, adding: “With every jab that goes into our arms, we are tilting the odds against Covid and in favour of the British people.”

                    Sterling is clearly one of the weakest for this week so far, but downside is limited at this point. A focus would be on GBP/JPY. The choppy rebound from 133.03 is more corrective looking than not, considering both the structure and MACD momentum. Yet, break of 139.44 support is needed to indicate short term topping first. Further break of 136.96 support would suggest that the pattern from 142.71 is extending with a third leg through 133.03 support. But before that, another rise would be mildly in favor for a take on 142.71 resistance.

                    Fed Evans: It takes a long time to reach 2% average inflation target

                      In a speech, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said if Fed tries to “fine-tune a very modest inflation overshoot of only a tenth or two, we run a very large risk of failing to achieve our 2 percent averaging goal within any reasonable amount of time”.

                      For him, “getting inflation moving up with momentum and delivering rates around 2-1/2 percent is important for achieving on our inflation objective in as timely a manner as possible.”

                      Bottom line is, it will “take a long time” for average inflation to reach 2%. “To meet our objectives and manage risks, the Fed’s policy stance will have to be accommodative for quite a while. Economic agents should be prepared for a period of very low interest rates and an expansion of our balance sheet as we work to achieve both our dual mandate objectives.”

                      Full speech here.

                      Fed Bostic hopeful for asset holding recalibration this year, as progress made

                        Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in a Reuters interview he’s “hopeful” that moving into 2021, “signals for weakness start to dissipate and the conversation turns consistently and robustly to sort of steady and broad-based growth.”

                        “If we determine things have strengthened appreciably, that we have made significant progress, then we will think about the next appropriate action,” he added.

                        That is, if enough progress were made, Fed could start to bring its asset holdings back to a level “more inline” with the pre-pandemic levels. “I am hopeful that in fairly short order we can start to recalibrate.”

                        Fed Mester: Prospects are good for a much more favorable 2021

                          In a speech, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said “prospects are good for a much more favorable 2021” with vaccines distribution underway and further fiscal relief. Though, “the next few months will be challenging ones” with increasing new cases of coronavirus, which are “putting strains on our healthcare system and limiting economic activity. ”

                          She added that “so far the recovery has generally been stronger than anticipated”. This suggests that “we may have been underestimating the economy’s resilience and underlying momentum, as well as the ability of households and businesses to adapt to this unprecedented environment.” Recovery is expected to continue, but uneven over the year.

                          The post-vaccination phase of recovery is expected to “continue over the next few years, with growth above trend, declines in the unemployment rate, and gradually rising inflation”.

                          Overall, “monetary policy will need to remain highly accommodative for quite some time because achieving our monetary policy goals is likely to be a journey and not a sprint… The FOMC is, and will remain, fully committed to using our policy tools to achieve our goals, in support of a broad-based and sustainable recovery.”

                          Full speech here.

                          DOW down -540 pts, Dollar trying to rebound

                            Dollar is rebounding in US session as stocks suffer steep pull back. DOW is currently down -540 pts or -1.75% at the time of writing. For now, however, near term bullishness in stocks is not threatened yet. As long as 29755.53 support in DOW holds, near term up trend is expected to resume sooner rather than later. However, firm break of this support should bring deer pull back, and probably trigger stronger rebound in the greenback.

                            Sterling drops broadly on rapidly escalating coronavirus case numbers

                              UK Prime Minister Boris is set to make a TV address later tonight. His spokesman noted: “The spread of the new variant of Covid-19 has led to rapidly escalating case numbers across the country. The prime minister is clear that further steps must now be taken to arrest this rise and to protect the NHS and save lives. He will set those out this evening.”

                              The news trigger broad based selloff in the Pound. Still for now, GBP/USD is holding well above 1.3428 near term support. GBP/JPY is well above 139.44 support. GBP/CHF is also just slightly lower, relatively to recent range. of 1.1683/1.2203. There is no clear threat to overnight mild bullishness Sterling yet.

                              Gold in upside acceleration, on track to 1965 resistance

                                Gold is now in upside acceleration, as seen in 4 hour MACD, as rise from 1764.31 resumed. Further rally is expected as long as 1856.98 support holds, even in case of retreat. Next target is 1965.50 resistance.

                                Also, we’re holding on to the bullish view that correction from 2075.18 has completed at 1764.31 already. Firm break of 1965.50 will pave the way to retest 2075.18 high. Momentum after taking out 1965.50 will reveal the likelihood of up trend resumption. In the bullish case, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1451.16 to 2075.18 from 1764.31 at 2149.95.

                                USD/JPY and USD/CAD downside breakout as dollar selling intensifies

                                  Both USD/JPY and USD/CAD broke out to the downside in European session, as Dollar selloff intensifies. Break of 102.87 support in USD/JPY confirms resumption of whole down trend from 111.71. Outlook will now stay bearish as long as 103.89 resistance holds. Such down trend should now extend to retest 101.18 low.

                                  USD/CAD’s break of 1.2688 also confirm resumption of the down trend from 1.4667. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2957 resistance holds. Next near term downside target is 100% projection of 1.3172 to 1.2688 from 1.2957 at 1.2473.

                                  UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 57.5, boost from last-minute Brexit preparations

                                    UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 57.5 in December, up from November’s 55.6. That’s also a 37-month high. Markit said there were near-record increases in input stocks and purchasing activity. However, strong demand and transport issues stretched supply chains.

                                    Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit: “The Manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level in over three years in December, mainly reflecting a boost from last-minute preparations before the end of the Brexit transition period. Customers, especially those based in the EU, brought forward purchases, boosting sales temporarily. It seems likely that this boost will reverse in the opening months of 2021, making for a weak start to the year. Note also that the December PMI data were collected prior to the border closures, which will have led to further logistics and production disruptions for many companies.”

                                    Full release here.

                                     

                                    Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 55.2, solid performance a crucial support to the economy

                                      Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 55.2 in December, up from November’s 53.8. That’s also the highest reading since May 2018. Markit said there were stronger rises in output and new orders signalled. But supply side shortages led to delivery delays and price rises.

                                      Looking at some member states, Germany PMI Manufacturing rose to 34-month high at 58.3. The Netherlands rose to 27-month high at 58.2. Ireland rose to 5-month high at 57.2. Italy rose to 52.8, France rose to 51.1, Spain rose to 51.0. But Greece stayed in contraction at 46.9, despite a 2-month high.

                                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                                      “The solid performance of manufacturing amid the tightening of COVID-19 restrictions in the closing months of 2020 represents a major contrast to the lockdowns earlier in the year, with factories acting as a crucial support to the economy as the service sector is hit by tough social distancing measures…

                                      The economy consequently looks set to be hit by the pandemic in the fourth quarter far less than the unprecedented decline in the second quarter thanks to the resilience of manufacturing, and an improvement in business expectations for 12 months ahead to the highest for almost three years suggests that momentum can be sustained in 2021. Rising virus case numbers are nevertheless likely to mean trading conditions remain challenging in the near-term and therefore constrain growth.”

                                      AUD/CAD turns into consolidation ahead of 0.9870 projection target

                                        AUD/CAD trades mildly softer today, partly because the Canadian Dollar is lifted by oil prices. More importantly, buying lost momentum, as seen in 4 hour MACD, just ahead of 38.2% projection of 0.8066 to 0.9696 from 0.9247 at 0.9870. A short term top is possibly in place at 0.9857.

                                        Some consolidations would likely follow first. Considering that USD/CAD is on the verge of breaking through 1.2688 low, there is prospect of a deeper pull back in AUD/CAD too. Though, downside should be contained by 0.9617 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Break of 0.9870 will target 61.8% projection at 1.0254.

                                        WTI crude oil to surge through 50, target channel resistance

                                          WTI crude oil resumes up trend today and hits as high as 49.74 so far. Oil price is lifted by news that OPEC+ is going to cap output at current levels in February. The pandemic is likely to continue to limit economic recovery for the near term, with current resurgence in cases.

                                          Mohammad Barkindo, Secretary General of OPEC, said on Sunday that there are plenty of downside risks in crude demand in the first half, as “we are only beginning to emerge from a year of deep investment cuts, huge job losses and the worst crude oil demand destruction on record.”

                                          For the near term, 50 psychological level should at least be breached based on current momentum. The immediate test lies in channel resistance at 51.25, which may limit upside. Though, sustained break there will confirm upside acceleration. That would open up the case for further rally to 65.43 medium term resistance next.