Swiss KOF dropped to 96.5, gloomy economic prospects at beginning of the year

    Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 96.5 in January, down from 104.1, missed expectation of 101.5, and back below long-term average of 100. KOF said, “after reaching an interim pandemic high in September, COVID-​19 is now weighing more heavily on the economy again. The pandemic is causing gloomy economic prospects at the beginning of the year.”

    “Responsible for the decline are in particular the indicator bundles for accommodation and food service activities as well as other services,” KOF added. “But the outlook for manufacturing, financial and insurance services and private consumer demand is also less favourable than before. The outlook for construction is stable and foreign demand could provide a stronger impulse.”

    Full release here.

    France GDP dropped -1.3% qoq in Q4 on lockdown and curfews

      France GDP contracted -1.3% qoq in Q4, better than expectation of -3.9% qoq. GDP was -5% below its level a year ago. Insee said that “the loss of activity this quarter was marked by the lockdown in effect from the end of October to mid-December and by the curfews put in place during the months of October and December”. Over the full 2020, GDP dropped -8.3%.

      Looking at some details, household consumption dropped -5.4%. Gross fixed capital formation grew 2.4%. Total domestic demand dropped -2.7%. Exports 4.8%, more than imports’s 1.3%. Foreign trade made a positive contribution to GDP growth, added 0.9%. Change in inventories also made a positive contribution by 0.4%.

      Full release here.

      Japan industrial production dropped -1.6% mom in Dec, but rebound expected in Jan

        Japan industrial production dropped -1.6% mom in December, below expectation of -1.5% mom. Though, on the bright side, manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expected output to rebound 8.9% in January and decline 0.3% in February. The government also maintained that industrial production was picking up.

        Also from Japan, unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.9% in December, better than expectation of a tick up to 3.0%. Tokyo CPI core improved to -0.4% yoy in January, up from -0.9% yoy, above expectation of -0.6% yoy.

        BoJ Opinions: Downward pressure strong but moderate improving trend maintained

          In the Summary of Opinions at BoJ’s January 20-21 meeting, it’s noted, “the impact of the reinstatement of the state of emergency for 11 prefectures… should be monitored carefully given that private consumption in these prefectures accounts for nearly 60 percent of Japan’s.” While downward pressure is “likely to be strong for the time being”, the economy is expected to “maintain its moderate improving trend”.

          BoJ also noted, “this year, it is necessary to closely monitor the broad impact of political developments overseas, such as the change of government in the United States and the replacement of the Chancellor of Germany, on economic activities and financial conditions at home and abroad.”

          On monetary policy, one member said, “in terms of yield curve control and purchases of assets such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), it is crucial for the Bank to conduct them more flexibly in a prioritized manner while maintaining the current policy framework.”

          Full Summary of Opinions here.

          US initial jobless claims dropped to 847k, continuing claims down to 4.77m

            US initial jobless claims dropped -67k to 847k in the week ending January 23, below expectation of 875k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 16.3k to 868k.

            Continuing claims dropped -203k to 4771 in the week ending January 16. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -106.8k to 4998k.

            Full release here.

            US GDP grew 4% annualized in Q4, missed expectations

              According to advance estimate, US GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.0% in Q4, below expectation of 4.2%. BEA said: “The increase in real GDP reflected increases in exports, nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by decreases in state and local government spending and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased”.

              Full release here.

              Eurozone economic sentiment dropped to 91.5, led by retail trade

                Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped to 91.5 in January, down from 92.4, above expectation of 88.7. The ESI’s decrease was driven by sliding confidence in retail trade and smaller losses in services and consumer confidence. Amongst the largest euro-area economies, the ESI dropped in France (-2.6) and Germany (-2.3), while it improved in Spain (+2.4), the Netherlands (+0.6) and Italy (+0.4)

                Look at some details, services confidence dropped from -17.1 to -17.8. Consumer confidence dropped from -13.8 to -15.5. Retail trade confidence dropped sharply from -12.9 to -18.9. Construction confidence improved slightly from -8.0 to -7.7. Employment Expectations Indicator dropped from 90.4 to 88.8.

                Full release here.

                ECB Rehn: Eurozone inflation outlook is too low for my taste

                  ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said an a Bloomberg TV interview, that Eurozone’s inflation outlook is “too low for my taste, and more importantly, too low for our aim”.

                  But, “I would not enter into a speculation on one or another instrument in our monetary toolbox. I would just say we are indeed ready to use and adjust all our instruments as appropriate,” he said.

                  “We are closely monitoring developments in the exchange rate, especially regarding the inflation outlook,” he added.

                  GBP/AUD accelerates up on risk selloff, pressing 1.7923 near term resistance

                    GBP/AUD’s rebound from 1.7412 accelerated this week on the back of steep risk pull back, and resilience in Sterling. The cross hits as high as 1.7944 so far and stays firm.

                    Immediate focus is now on 1.7923 resistance. Decisive break there will argue that fall from 1.8523 has completed. Rise from 1.7412 could indeed be correcting whole down trend from 2.0840 to 1.7412. In this case, stronger rally would be seen through 1.8523 to 38.2% retracement of 2.0840 to 1.7412 at 1.8721 in short to medium term.

                    However, rejection by 1.7923 will retain near term bearishness. Break of 1.7700 support will bring retest of 1.7412 low.

                    Gold down mildly but holding on to 1832 support

                      Gold weakened mildly following Dollar’s strength but still stays above 1832.40 support. Outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1810.07 is seen as a corrective move, even though another rise cannot be ruled out. Firm break of 1832.40 will bring retest of 1810.07. Break will resume whole fall from 1959.10.

                      The decline from 1959.16 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 2075.18. Deeper fall is expected through 1764.31 before completing the pattern.

                      Dollar index in head and shoulder bottom, but still capped by 91.01 resistance

                        While Dollar rose broadly overnight, Dollar Index was still kept below 91.01 resistance, as well ass 55 day EMA (now at 90.93). Similarly, EUR/USD is holding above 1.2058 support while USD/JPY is still kept below 104.59 resistance.

                        The condition of near term reversal is building further up, considering the head and shoulder bottom pattern. Still firm break of 91.01 is needed to confirm the start of a near term rally (be it a corrective rise or the start of an up trend). In that case, DXY would tentatively be looking at 94.74 resistance as a target to test. Rejection by 91.01 will bring another fall through 89.20 before bottoming.

                        New Zealand exports dropped -2.7% yoy in Dec, imports rose 4.2% yoy

                          New Zealand goods exports dropped -2.7% yoy or NZD 149m to NZD 5.3B in December. Imports rose 4.2% yoy or NZD 213m to NZD 5.3B. Monthly trade surplus came in at NZD 17m, well below expectation of NZD 800m.

                          Exports to China was down NZD -97m, up to USA, EU, Australia and Japan. Imports from China was up NZD 273m, from AU was up NZD 81m, but down from EU, USA and Japan.

                          Full release here.

                          FOMC provided reality check, DOW and TNX tumbled but no change in up trend yet

                            US stocks markets suffered the steepest decline since October after Fed give investors a reality check on the state of the economy. FOMC kept monetary policy unchanged, and reiterated: “The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook.”

                            Chair Jerome Powell admitted, “the risks are in the near term, frankly”. The economy was still a long way from a full recovery while “the whole focus on (stimulus) exit is premature.” Though, “several developments point to an improved outlook for later this year”, with vaccine rollouts.

                            More on Fed:

                            DOW dropped -633.87 pts, or -2.05%, to close at 30303.17 overnight. While the pull back was deep, DOW is still staying above 55 day EMA (now as 30098.59) for now. More importantly, 29881.82 near term support remains intact, keeping outlook bullish. DOW could indeed rebound from the current level and stage another rally to extend the up trend from 18213.65.

                            10-year yield also extended near term correction, closed down -0.026 at 1.014. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out, TNX is also close to a key support. 55 day EMA (now at 0.9629), which is close to channel support, should provide the floor.

                            US oil inventories dropped -9.9m barrels, WTI extending sideway consolidation

                              US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -9.9 million barrels in the week ending January 22. At 476.7 millions, oil inventories are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories rose 2.5 million barrels. Distillate dropped -0.8 millions barrels. Propane/propylene inventories dropped -2.2 million barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped -11.7m barrels.

                              WTI crude oil stays in sideway consolidation from 53.92 and outlook remains bullish with 49.42 resistance turned support intact. The up trend from March’s spike low is expected to resume sooner or later, through 53.92.

                              Germany slashed 2021 growth forecast to 3% on second lockdown

                                German government slashed 2021 growth forecast to 3%, sharply down from last autumn’s projection of 4.4%, due to the second round of coronavirus lockdown.

                                Economy Minister Peter Altmaier emphasized, “we are currently seeing a flattening of the number of infections, which is giving hope… We must therefore not gamble away what has been achieved,.”

                                He also noted that the recovery picture is “divided”, “while industry currently continues to be robust, the service sector is badly affected.”

                                US durable goods orders rose 0.2% mom in Dec, ex-transport orders rose 0.7% mom

                                  US durable goods orders rose 0.2% mom to USD 245.3B in December, well below expectation of 1.0% mom rise. Ex-transport orders rose 0.7% mom, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 0.5% mom. Machinery rose 2.4% mom.

                                  Full release here.

                                  EUR/GBP downside breakout, extending the pattern from 0.9499

                                    Following the upside breakout in GBP/USD and GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP is breaking out to the downside. Fall from 0.9229 is resuming and intraday bias is back on the downside. Immediate focus is 100% projection of 0.9291 to 0.8861 from 0.9229 at 0.8799. Firm break there will indicate downside acceleration for 0.8670 support, as part of the corrective pattern from 0.9499. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8917 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

                                    ECB Knot: There is still room to cut rates

                                      ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said today that “there is still room to cut rates… But of course that would have to be seen in conjunction with our overall monetary stance which is determined by a multiplicity of tools.”

                                      He was “cautiously optimistic” about recovery in 2021. But relatively lower production in the Eurozone would limit inflation. “It has to be seen how that will play out, before we can start talking about normalizing interest rates.”

                                      Knot added that ECB would monitor the strength of Euro closely. “If it were to become too dominant, in terms of threatening to derail our inflation objective, then of course we would have the tools available to counter that.”

                                      BoJ Kuroda: Frequency and size of ET purchases fallen sharply recently

                                        BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank’s ETF buying is not distorting the Tokyo stock market. “We are buying ETFs as part of a comprehensive monetary easing framework. We have no plans now to end the framework or our ETF purchases,” he said.

                                        “The frequency of our ETF buying has fallen sharply recently, as well as the size of each purchase,” Kuroda said. “We’re buying flexibly looking at market developments.”

                                        Germany Gfk consumer confidence dropped to -15.6, facing challenges in Q1

                                          Germany Gfk consumer confidence for February dropped to -15.6, down from -7.5, well below expectation of -7.8. In January, economic expectations dropped from 4.4 to 1.3. Income expectations dropped from 3.6 to -2.9. Propensity to buy dropped sharply from 36.6 to 0.0.

                                          Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at GfK: “Consumer sentiment is facing difficult challenges in the first quarter of this year. If it is to recover sustainably, infection rates will need to decrease more than they have to date so that the measures can be relaxed significantly. This means that we will need to wait a while before we see the recovery that many had been hoping for this year.”

                                          Full release here.