US ISM manufacturing rose to 60.8, prices rose to 86

    US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 60.8 in February, up from 58.7, above expectation of 58.9. This equals the highest reading since February 2018, which was then the highest since May 2004.

    Looking at some details, new orders rose 3.7 to 64.8. Production rose 2.5 to 63.2. Employment rose 1.8 to 54.4. ISM said: “The Manufacturing PMI continued to indicate strong sector expansion and U.S. economic growth in February. Four of the five subindexes that directly factor into the PMI were in growth territory and at a higher level compared to January.”

    Prices jumped 3.9 to 86.0, highest since May 2008. ISM said, “Aluminum, copper, chemicals, all varieties of steel, soy, petroleum-based products including plastics, transportation costs, electrical and electronic components, corrugate, and wood and lumber products all continued to record price increases.”

    Full release here.

    BIS: Central banks have to work out the implications of rising bond yields

      The Bank for International Settlements said, with the release of its quarterly review, that “prospects of a more robust economic recovery buoyed risky asset prices, with signs of exuberance reflected in the behaviour of retail investors.” And, “sovereign yield curves steepened as investors priced in higher inflation and fiscal support.” Also, “sentiment towards emerging market assets remained favourable, in particular in East Asia.”

      “The recent market jitters confirm that the back-up in bond yields and reflation trade are casting the financial market outlook in a completely new light,” said Claudio Borio, Head of the BIS’ Monetary and Economic Department. “People just saw low rates for as far as the eye could see, whereas now they have started having doubts about how long these conditions would last.”

      Central banks “will have to work out what the implications of that (rising bond yields) for their objectives and respond accordingly,” Borio added.

      Full release here.

      UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 55.1 in Feb, stretched supply chains and rising costs

        UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 55.1 in February, up from January’s 54.1. Markit noted growth was subdued by stretched supply chains and rising costs. But business optimism rose to near six-and-a-half year high.

        Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit: “The UK manufacturing sector was again hit by supply chain issues, COVID-19 restrictions, stalling exports, input shortages and rising cost pressures in February. Look past the headline PMI and the survey reveals near-stagnant production, widespread shipping and port delays and confusion following the end of the Brexit transition period.

        “In fact the biggest contributor to the headline PMI reading was a near-record lengthening of supplier delivery times. However, while normally a positive sign of an increasingly busy economy, the recent lengthening was far from welcome, more often than not linked to problems resulting from Brexit and COVID related. The resultant shortages for a vast array of components and raw materials, as rising demand chased restricted supply, led to a further acceleration in input cost inflation to a four-year high.

        “With current constraints likely to continue for the foreseeable future, pressure on prices and output volumes may remain a feature during the coming months. That said, improved domestic demand as lockdown restrictions ease and a further rise in manufacturers’ optimism are reasons to hope brighter times are on the horizon, and have already supported a modest rebound in staffing levels since the turn of the year.”

        Full release here.

        Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 57.9, fastest cost inflation in a decade

          Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 57.9 in February, up from January’s 54.8. Markit said output and new orders were up sharply as export trade strengthens. But acute lengthening of delivery times drove fastest cost inflation in nearly a decade.

          Looking at some member states, Germany PMI manufacturing hit 37-month high at 60.7. The Netherlands rose to 29-month high at 59.6. Austria rose to 36-month high at 58.9. Italy rose to 37-month high at 56.9. France rose to 37-month high at 56.1. However, Greece dropped to 2-month low at 49.4.

          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Manufacturing is appearing as an increasingly bright spot in the eurozone’s economy so far this year. The PMI has reached a three-year high to run at a level that has rarely been exceeded in more than two-decades of survey history – notably during the dot-com bubble, the initial rebound from the global financial crisis and in 2017-18…

          “The growth spurt has brought its own problems, however, with demand for inputs not yet being met by supply. Shipping delays and shortages of materials are being widely reported, and led to near record supply chain delays. Prices paid for inputs are consequently rising at the fastest rate for nearly a decade, hinting at further increases in consumer price inflation in coming months, at least until supply and demand come back into balance.”

          Full release here.

          GBP/CHF rally takes a breather after hitting 55M EMA, some near term consolidations first

            GBP/CHF was the top mover last month, closed up 3.56% or 450 pips. Though, notable resistance was seen from 100% projection of 1.1102 to 1.2259 from 1.1683 at 1.2840, and more importantly from 55 month EMA (now at 1.2794), that limited upside. A short term top is likely formed at 1.2893 as GBP/CHF turned into a near term corrective pattern.

            Some time would be needed to GBP/CHF to digest the prior strong upmove, and build the base for another rally. But for now, we’d expect strong support from 1.2259 resistance turned support to contain downside, even in case of deeper pull back. Another break of 1.2893 could push GBP/CHF through 55 month EMA, which carries long term bullish implication. The cross could then target 1.3854 key resistance to confirm long term bullish trend reversal.

            Gold rebounds from 38.2% retracement support, some upside prospects

              Gold’s strong rebound form 1717.01 tentative suggests stabilization, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 1160.17 to 2075.18 at 1725.64. Attention is now on 1760.46 support turned resistance. Firm break there will add to the case of short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 1815.83 resistance for confirmation.

              Overall, Gold is still seen as extending the corrective pattern from 2075.18. Firm break of 1815.83 will suggest that it has completed and turn near term outlook bullish for 1959.16 first. However, another decline through 1717.01 will likely extend the correction to 50% retracement at 1,617.67 before completion.

              China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.9, inflationary pressure continued to grow

                China Caixin PMI Manufacturing dropped to 50.9 in February down from 51.5, missed expectation of 51.5. That’s also the worst reading since last May. Output expanded modestly amid notably softer rise in new work. Pandemic weighed on exports sales and supplier performance. Though, business confidence improved on hopes of global economic recovery in months ahead.

                Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “To sum up, the momentum of the manufacturing recovery further weakened as the supply and demand both rose at a slower clip, adding pressure on employment. The prices of raw materials continued to increase and inflationary pressure continued to grow. Despite the headwinds mentioned above, manufacturers became more optimistic about the outlook for their businesses.”

                Full release here.

                Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 51.4. Feb, sharp rises in raw materials prices

                  Japan PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.4 in February, up from 49.8. That’s the strongest reading since December 2018, as manufacturers gradually recovered from the impact of the pandemic. Markit also noted that output and new orders expanded modestly. Input prices rose at fastest pace for two years. Positive sentiments reached strongest since July 2017.

                  Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Concern has been building throughout the Japanese manufacturing sector regarding ongoing supply chain disruption, which has induced sharp rises in the prices of raw materials. Cost burdens faced by firms rose at the sharpest pace in two years… Japanese manufacturers continued to report a positive outlook beyond the immediate future… in line with the IHS Markit forecast for industrial production to grow 7.4% in 2021, although this is from a low base.”

                  Full release here.

                  Australia AiG manufacturing rose to 58.8 in Feb, input prices surged

                    Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index rose to 58.8 in February, up from 55.3, hitting the strongest level since March 2018. Input prices jumped above its long-run average (67.4 pts), by 9.7 pts to 74.1, highest since October 2019. Selling prices only rose slightly by 0.4 pts to 51.2.

                    Looking at other details, production rose 8.9 pts to 65.8. New orders rose 5.3 pts to 59.9. Employment rose 2.7 pts to 57.8. Average wages rose 1.8 to 58.2. But supplier deliveries dropped -2.6 to 53.2. Exports also dropped -7.3 to 54.1.

                    Ai Group Chief Executive Innes Willox said: “Australia’s manufacturers lifted production and employment in February as sales recovered a large share of the ground lost in 2020. Growth was distributed broadly across manufacturing… Manufacturers are generally positive about the outlook for the next few months with new orders coming in at a greater pace as restrictions on activity and cross-border travel are hopefully wound back.

                     

                    Full release here.

                    US personal income rose 10% in Jan, spending rose 2.4%

                      US personal income rose 10% mom, or USD 1954.7B in January, matched expectations. Spending rose 2.4% mom or USD 340.9B, well above expectation of 0.7% mom.

                      Headline PCE price index rose 0.3% mom, matched expectation. Core PCE rose 0.3% mom, above expectation of 0.1% mom. Annually, PCE price index accelerated to 1.5% yoy, up from 1.3% yoy, above expectation of 1.1% yoy. Core PCE price index rose to 1.5% yoy, up from 1.4% yoy, above expectation of 1.4% yoy.

                      Full release here.

                      BoE Haldane: Greater present risk of allowing inflationary tiger out of the bag

                        BoE chief economist Andy Haldane said in a speech that “inflation is the tiger whose tail central banks control”. The tiger has been “stirred” by “extraordinary events and policy actions of the past 12 months” due to the Covid crisis.

                        “If risks from the virus or elsewhere prove more persistent than expected, disinflationary forces could return”, he said.

                        “But, for me, there is a tangible risk inflation proves more difficult to tame, requiring monetary policymakers to act more assertively than is currently priced into financial markets,” he added. “People are right to caution about the risks of central banks acting too conservatively by tightening policy prematurely. But, for me, the greater risk at present is of central bank complacency allowing the inflationary (big) cat out of the bag.”.

                        Full speech here.

                        ECB Schnabel: May need to step up policy support in response to rising real long-term rates

                          ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel said a a speech that “changes in nominal rates have to be monitored closely and interpreted in the light of their driving forces”. “A rise in nominal yields that reflects an increase in inflation expectations is a welcome sign”. Even gradual increase in real yields may not be a concern ” if they reflect improving growth prospects”.

                          However, “a rise in real long-term rates at the early stages of the recovery, even if reflecting improved growth prospects, may withdraw vital policy support too early and too abruptly given the still fragile state of the economy”.

                          In the latter case, Schnabel warned, “policy will then have to step up its level of support.”

                          Full speech here.

                          Swiss KOF rose to 102.7 in Feb, GDP grew 0.3% in Q4

                            Swiss KOF Economic Barometer rose to 102.7 in February, up from 96.5, above expectation of 97.0. It’s now slightly above long-term average of 100. The downward trend since September has “come to an end, at least for the time being”. For the next few months, the barometer now “signals somewhat more lively economic activity”.

                            Also released, GDP growth slowed to 0.3% qoq in Q3, sharply lower than Q4’s 7.6% qoq. “Major losses were recorded in the services directly affected by the tightening of the containment measures. Other industries continued to recover. On the whole, the second wave of the coronavirus until the end of 2020 had much less of an impact on the economy than the first wave did last spring.”

                            Bitcoin breaks 45k as correction starts third leg, heading to 40k cluster level

                              Bitcoin’s correction has turned out to be deeper than originally expected. The relatively weak recovery from 45000 was limited at 52116. Subsequent fall is now seen as the third leg of the correction from 57529. Deeper fall is in favor towards 100% projection of 52579 to 45000 from 52115 at 39586. Such projection level is close to 61.8% retracement of 29283 to 57529 at 40072. As it’s seen as correcting the rise from 29283 to 57529 only, we’d be expecting strong support from around 40k, which is close to the above mentioned levels, to contain downside to complete the correction.

                              However, just to pencil in the idea first, if bitcoin correcting the medium term up trend from 4000, it might indeed have a take on 38.2% retracement of 4000 to 57529 at 37080, which is close to 55 day EMA (now at 36878), before completing the correction.

                              Gold extends medium term correction with another fall, heading to 1725 fib level

                                Gold’s development invalidated our original bullish view. Instead, correction from 2075.18 is still in progress and is indeed resuming now. Break of 1760.46 temporary low turns bias to the downside. Gold should now target 38.2% retracement of 1160.17 to 2075.18 at 1725.64. Break there will target 50% retracement at 1,617.67.

                                On the upside, break of 1815.83 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

                                ECB Lane: It’s crystal clear we’re not engaged in yield curve control

                                  ECB chief economist Philip Lane told Spanish newspaper Expansión in an interview, “at this stage, an excessive tightening in yields would be inconsistent with fighting the pandemic shock to the inflation path. That’s what we said, and that’s what we will be continuing to keep an eye on day by day.

                                  However, “at the same time, it is crystal clear that we are not engaged in yield curve control, in the sense that we want to keep a particular yield constant,” he added. “With the purchase programme we are trying to move the curve in a certain direction and with enough force to support inflation dynamics”.

                                  Full interview here.

                                  BoJ Kuroda: No intention of pushing 10-year yield up above 0% target

                                    BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today that “it’s important now to keep the entire yield curve stably low as the economy suffers the damage from COVID-19”. Also, “the BOJ has no intention of pushing up (10-year bond yields) above its target of around 0%.”

                                    On monetary policy, Kuroda said “it may take time but the BOJ must achieve 2% inflation by helping expand the positive output gap, prop up inflation expectations with a commitment to expand base money until inflation stably above 2%… By stressing BOJ’s commitment to hit 2% inflation, it hopes to push up inflation expectations and lower real interest rates.

                                    BoJ will also include the study on whey inflation has not sufficiently picked up in the upcoming March review. “The BOJ will examine the effects and side-effects of our asset purchases in hope of making them more effective and sustainable,” Kuroda reiterated. “We’re already buying ETFs flexibly because doing so is possible even under current guidelines.”

                                    S&P 500 and DOW not looking bad despite pull back, NASDAQ vulnerable though

                                      While US stocks suffered steep selloff overnight, the outlook isn’t generally that bad yet. S&P 500 is still holding well inside rising channel, and above 55 day EMA. The trend defining support of 3694.12 is indeed still a bit far away. So, outlook is staying bullish, in a way that rise from 3233.94 is still not under threat yet, not to mention the up trend from 2191.86. Though, bearish divergence condition in daily MACD is a warning.

                                      NASDAQ is looking a little bit more vulnerable as it has already tested corresponding trend defining support of 12985.05. Firm break there will open up the case of deeper pull back towards 12074.06 resistance turned support. That could be an early warning of deeper correction in other indices.

                                      But at the same time, let’s not forget that DOW just made a new record high earlier this week. It’s holding well above 55 day EMA, as well as 29837.30 support. The bearish divergence condition in daily MACD is not enough to indicate major topping yet. So overall, it’s still early to declare the arrival of medium-term scale correction in US stocks. Let’s wait and see.

                                      10-yr yield breaks 1.5 after awful debt auctions, heading to 2%?

                                        The fast acceleration in US yield was a major shocker to the markets overnight. Fed officials are generally unconcerned with recent rally. They even sounded upbeat about the development in the bond markets. But some analysts pointed to the poor demand in the “awful” bond auctions overnight. Now that 10-year yield is back above 1.5%, we might be looking at next level around 2%, if the the rally persists.

                                        Kansas City Fed President Esther George said, “much of this increase likely reflects growing optimism in the strength of the recovery and could be viewed as an encouraging sign of increasing growth expectations.”

                                        Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said, “yields have definitely moved at the longer end, but right now I am not worried about that. We will keep an eye out. … I am not expecting that we will need to respond at this point in terms of our policy.”

                                        St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said, “I think the rise in yields is probably a good sign so far because it does reflect better outlook for U.S. economic growth and inflation expectations which are closer to the committee’s inflation target,”

                                        However, some analysts noted that the sharp rally in yield was a result of the “tepid”, awful”, and “brutal” debt auction. The USD 62B of 7-year notes auction showed poor demand, with bid-to-cover ratio of 2.04, the lowest on record.

                                        10-year yield closed up 0.129 at 1.518 overnight. 1.429 support turned resistance was taken out already and the rally is still in acceleration mode. We might now be looking at the next level at 1.971 resistance, 55 month EMA at 1.997, or even 61.8% retracement of 3.248 to 0.398 at 2.159.

                                        US Q4 GDP growth revised up to 4.1% annualized

                                          US Q4 GDP growth was revised up to 4.1% annualized, according to the second estimate. That compared to Q3’s 33.4% annualized growth.

                                          The increase in real GDP reflected increases in exports, non-residential fixed investment, PCE, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by decreases in state and local government spending and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

                                          Full release here.