ECB de Cos: Increase in long term nominal rates may have negative impacts

    ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said today, “the increases in long-term nominal interest rates have not been accompanied by increases of the same magnitude in long-term inflation expectations. This may have a negative impact on economic activity and thus inflation.” “These developments underline the importance of avoiding premature increases in nominal interest rates,” he added.

    Instead, “in a setting where inflation expectations are well below our aim, a decrease in real interest rates would have made a greater contribution to the recovery and helped achieve this aim,” he said. “The need to maintain very accommodative financing conditions is justified because we are a long way from achieving our inflation aim.”

     

    US ADP employment grew only 117k, sluggish recovery across the board

      US ADP private employment grew only 117k in February, below expectation of 168k. BY company size, small businesses added 32k jobs, medium businesses added 57k, large businesses added 28k. By sector, goods-producing jobs contracted -14k. Service-providing jobs grew 131.

      “The labor market continues to post a sluggish recovery across the board,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “We’re seeing large-sized companies increasingly feeling the effects of COVID-19, while job growth in the goods producing sector pauses. With the pandemic still in the driver’s seat, the service sector remains well below its pre-pandemic levels; however, this sector is one that will likely benefit the most over time with reopenings and increased consumer confidence.”

      Full release here.

      Eurozone PPI at 1.4% mom, 0.0% yoy in Jan

        Eurozone PPI came in at 1.4% mom, 0.0% yoy in January, versus expectation of 1.0% mom, -0.4% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 3.5% mom in the energy sector, by 1.2% mom for intermediate goods, by 0.4% mom for capital goods and for durable consumer goods and by 0.1% mom for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.8% mom.

        EU PPI came in at 1.4% mom, 0.0% yoy. For the month, the industrial producer prices increased in all Member States for which data are available. The highest increases were recorded in Ireland (+10.0% mom), Spain (+3.4% mom) and Denmark (+3.3% mom).

        Full release here.

        UK PMI services finalized at 49.5, composite at 49.6

          UK PMI Services was finalized at 49.5 in February, up sharply from January’s 39.5. Markit said business activity was almost stable in the second month of lockdown. There was slowest drop in staffing numbers since the pandemic began. Also, optimism continued to rise in response to vaccine roll out. PMI Composite was finalized at 49.6, up from January’s 41.2.

          Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “UK service sector activity was relatively stable in February and so it appears that the third national lockdown has seen limited spillovers to parts of the economy beyond the scope of government mandated closures… Tighter restrictions on international travel meant that export sales remained an area of weakness for the service economy… Higher fuel bills and shipping costs pushed up operating expenses in February. Service providers have mostly absorbed pressure on margins from rising input costs over the past 12 months, but their latest increase in average charges was the fastest since the start of the pandemic”.

          Full release here.

          Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 48.8, on course for a double-dip recession

            Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 45.7 in February, up slightly from January’s 45.4. PMI Composite was finalized at 48.8, up from January’s 47.8. Looking at some member states, Italy PMI Composite rose to 7-month high at 51.4. Germany came in at 51.1.. France dropped to 3-month low at 47.0. Spain and Ireland were also in contraction, at 45.1 and 42.7 respectively.

            Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “A fourth successive monthly drop in business activity puts the eurozone economy on course for a double-dip recession… it’s becoming clear that many virus-fighting measures will need to be in place for some time to come, in part due to the slow vaccine roll-out. This could extend the drag on the economy from the pandemic into the second half of the year and subdue the pace of recovery.

            “A key question will be the extent to which these containment measures will limit the supply of goods and services at a time of recovering demand, as this will in turn determine pricing power in coming months and affect how long the current bout of sharply rising prices will persist.”

            Full release here.

            China Caixin PMI services dropped to 51.5, recovery further weakened

              China Caixin PMI Services dropped to 51.5 in February, down from 52.0, slightly below expectation of 51.6. Markit noted that services activity growth eased to ten-month low. There was softer increase in total new work amid renewed drop in export sales. Nevertheless, confidence regarding the 12-month business outlook remained robust. PMI Composite dropped to 51.7, down from 52.2.

              Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “To sum up, the momentum of manufacturing and services recovery further weakened. Overseas demand was sluggish and the job market was under higher pressure. Inflationary pressure continued to grow. Despite these headwinds, manufacturers and service providers were still optimistic. The confidence mainly came from the experience in fighting the pandemic over the past year, as well as the expectation that winter Covid-19 flare-ups were coming to an end. Also, companies were confident in the future outlook for their new products.

              Full release here.

              Australia GDP grew 3.1% qoq in Q4, strong terms of trade

                Australia GDP grew 3.1% qoq in Q4, above expectation of 2.5% qoq. Growth slowed slightly from Q3’s 3.4% qoq. Over the year, GDP dropped -1.1% yoy. Terms of trade rose 4.7% qoq off the back of higher export prices, particularly for iron ore. Terms of trade contributed to a 4.2% increase in nominal GDP, strongest rise since Q3 1983.

                Head of National Accounts at the ABS, Michael Smedes said: “Despite the two consecutive quarters of strong growth, economic activity remained 1.1 per cent lower than recorded in the 2019 December quarter.” This is the first time in the over sixty year history of the National Accounts that GDP has grown by more than 3.0 per cent in two consecutive quarters.

                Full release here.

                BoJ Kataoka: It’s hard now to foresee inflation powerfully heading towards 2%

                  Goushi Kataoka, the most dovish BoJ board member, said “it’s hard now to foresee inflation powerfully heading towards our 2% target.”

                  “in order to prevent Japan’s economy from falling into deflation, further policy coordination of both fiscal and monetary policy is needed,” he added. “It was necessary for the BOJ to strengthen its policy commitment by relating the forward guidance for policy rates to price targets.”

                  Fed Daly: Recent rise in inflation compensation is encouraging

                    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in a speech that “a swell of market and academic commentary has started to emerge about a quick snapback, an undesirable pickup in inflation, and the need for the Federal Reserve to withdraw accommodation more quickly than expected”.

                    But that was only “reaction to a memory of high and rising inflation, an inexorable link between unemployment, wages and prices, and a Federal Reserve that once fell behind the policy curve”. She added, “the world today is different”.

                    She viewed “recent rise in inflation compensation to roughly 2 percent as encouraging and in line with our stated goals. It suggests that our commitment to flexible average inflation targeting has already gained substantial credibility.”

                    “Today, the costs are tilted the other way. Running inflation too low for too long can pull down inflation expectations, reduce policy space, and leave millions of Americans on the sidelines along the way.”

                    Full speech here.

                    Fed Brainard: Transitory inflation more probable than a durable shift above target

                      Fed Governor Lael Brainard said in a speech, “increasing vaccinations, along with enacted and expected fiscal measures and accommodative monetary policy, point to a strong modal outlook for 2021, although considerable uncertainty remains”.

                      “Inflation is likely to temporarily rise above 2 percent,” she added. “Transitory inflationary pressures are possible if there is a surge of demand that outstrips supply in certain sectors when the economy opens up fully”. But, “a burst of transitory inflation seems more probable than a durable shift above target in the inflation trend and an unmooring of inflation expectations to the upside”

                      “Today the economy remains far from our goals in terms of both employment and inflation, and it will take some time to achieve substantial further progress,” she said. “We will need to be patient to achieve the outcomes set out in our guidance”.

                      Full speech here.

                      OPEC: Positive global economic developments and resilient demand in Asia are encouraging

                        OPEC quoted Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo in a series a tweets, noting that “the headwinds of uncertainty that shocked the market last year continue to abate.”

                        “The outlook for the global oil market continues to be positive. Positive global economic developments and resilient demand in Asia are encouraging”.

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                        ECB Panetta: Steepening in nominal GDP-weighted yield curve is unwelcome, must be resisted

                          ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said in a speech that “the end of the pandemic emergency is in sight and an incipient recovery is on the horizon”. As such, “it might be tempting to conclude that there is less need for monetary policy support.” But he warned that “this temptation must be resisted”. And 2021 is “still a pandemic year”, as the economic consequences will not end soon.

                          “We will still face two prominent gaps that we need to close: the output gap and the inflation gap,” he added. “At present, the risks of providing too little policy support still far outweigh the risks of providing too much.”

                          Monetary policy is now in the “third phase” that ECB needs to “preserve accommodative financing conditions to support the recovery and the convergence of inflation to our aim”.

                          “The steepening in the nominal GDP-weighted yield curve we have been seeing is unwelcome and must be resisted,” he warned.

                          Full speech here.

                          Canada GDP grew 0.1% mom in Dec, advanced information points to 0.5% mom rise in Jan

                            Canada GDP grew 0.1% mom in December, matched expectations, following 0.8% mom rise in November. That’s the eighth consecutive monthly increase. Still total economic activity was about -3% below February’s pre-pandemic level. Goods-producing industries were up 0.6% mom while services-producing industries edged down -0.1% mom. 12 of 20 industrial sectors grew in the month.

                            At the same time, advanced information indicates an approximate 0.5% mom increase in real GDP in January. The wholesale trade, manufacturing and construction sectors led the increase while retail trade declined.

                            Full release here.

                            Eurozone CPI unchanged at 0.9% yoy in Feb, core CPI slowed to 1.1% yoy

                              Eurozone CPI was unchanged at 0.9% yoy in February, below expectation of 1.0% yoy. CPI core slowed to 1.1% yoy, down from 1.4% yoy, matched expectations.

                              Looking at the main components, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in February (1.4%, compared with 1.5% in January), followed by services (1.2%, compared with 1.4% in January), non-energy industrial goods (1.0%, compared with 1.5% in January) and energy (-1.7%, compared with -4.2% in January).

                              Full release here.

                              ECB de Guindos open to recalibration on negative impact of rising yields

                                Euro drops against dollar and Yen again today, after ECB official reinforces the message that they’re ready to act to counter the impact of rising treasury yields.

                                Vice-President Luis de Guindos told Portuguese newspaper Público, “We will have to see whether this increase in nominal yields will have a negative impact on financing conditions.”

                                “If we reach the conclusion that it will, then we are totally open to recalibrating our programme, including the envelope of our Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme if necessary,” he added. “We have room for manoeuvre, and we have ammunition.”

                                Gold resumes correction, 1700 looks vulnerable

                                  Gold’s recovery was rejected by 1760.46 support and resistance and decline resumed quickly by breaking through 1717.01 temporary low. 1700 handle is now looking vulnerable. The corrective pattern from 2075.18 is extending with fall from 1959.16 as the third leg. Current fall might now target 50% retracement of 1160.17 to 2075.18 at 1617.67.

                                  Break of 1759.72 minor resistance is now needed to be the third sign of short term bottoming. Further break of 1815.83 resistance is needed to confirm. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in gold as the correction in favor in extend lower.

                                  RBA stands pat, recovery stronger than earlier expected

                                    RBA left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Cash rate and 3-year yield target are held at 0.10%. Parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program are kept unchanged too. The central bank also keep the pledge to “maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions until its goals are achieved”. The conditions for raising cash rate is not expected to be met “until 2024 at the earliest”.

                                    The bond purchases were “brought forward this week to assist with the smooth functioning of the market”. A cumulative AUD 74B of government bonds has been purchased under the initial AUD 100B program. A further AUD 100B will be purchases after the current program completes. And RBA is “prepared to do more if that is necessary”.

                                    Globally, RBA noted that longer-term bond yields increased “considerably over the past month”. That “partly reflects a lift in expected inflation over the medium term to rates that are closer to central banks’ targets”. The movement in yields have been associated with volatility in other asset prices including foreign exchange rates, Australian Dollar “remains in the upper end of the range of recent years”.

                                    Australian economic recovery is “well under way” and has been “stronger than was earlier expected”. GDP is expected to grow3.5% over both 2021 and 2022. Also GDP is expected to return to its end-2019 level “by the middle of this year”. But wage and prices pressures “subdued” and are expected to “remain so for some years”. CPI is expected to be at 1.25% over 2021 and 1.50% over 2022. CPI inflation is expected to “rise temporarily because of the reversal of some COVID-19-related price reductions.”

                                    Full statement here.

                                    Japan unemployment at unchanged at 2.9%, job availability ratio improved

                                      Japan unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.9% in January, slightly better than expectation of 3.0%. Job availability ratio rose to 1.10, up from 1.05. The data suggested that new job offers are rebounding, leading to resumption of recovery later in the quarter. “We can’t deny that the impact of the pandemic was felt but concerns that the state of emergency would worsen (the jobless rate) did not materialize,” an official of the internal affairs ministry said.

                                      Capital spending dropped -4.8% in Q4, much worse than expectation of -2.0%. That’s the third straight quarter of decline, after the sharp -10.6% contraction in Q3. The data argued there might be downward revision in the 12.7% annualized Q4 GDP growth.

                                      Also released, monetary base rose 19.6% yoy in February, versus expectation of 20.1% yoy rise.

                                      RBNZ Hawkesby: We are in no hurry to remove stimulus

                                        RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby said today that the central bank is in no rush to remove monetary stimulus. “Markets are keen to get ahead of central banks but there will inevitably be false starts,” he said. “And that is why we are seeing some of the volatility in bond markets at the moment.”

                                        “Our approach is to continually remind markets that we are going to be patient, and we are in no hurry to remove stimulus,” he emphasized. The comment was consistent with the central bank’s message last week, about keeping easy monetary policy for a prolonged period of time.

                                        While New Zealand has reopened earlier than many other countries, “there are pockets, regions and sectors that are still struggling”, Hawkesby said.

                                        ECB Lagarde: The coronavirus is a double economic shock

                                          ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech, “the coronavirus is a double economic shock”. Its effect “hit activity extremely hard” but it has also “accelerated structural changes that will transform our lifestyles and our economies.”

                                          “According to some estimates, the pandemic has brought forward the digital transition in Europe by seven years,” she added. 20% of work hours will move “permanently from office to home”, leading to “new patterns of demand and new ways of living”.

                                          She noted that “the pandemic is still weighing heavily on our economies” and “we are not out of the woods yet”. But “with the tremendous progress made on vaccine technology, we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel”.

                                          Still, “I can assure you that the ECB will continue to play its part, as we have done since the first days of the crisis,” she concluded.

                                          Full speech here.