Fed Evans: We have to be patient and bolder on inflation

    Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, “we are going to have to go months and months into the higher inflation experience before I’m going to even have an opinion on whether or not this is sustainable or not, and that’s going to be uncomfortable.”

    “We really have to be patient and be willing to be bolder than most conservative central bankers would choose to be if we are going to actually get inflation expectations to move up in a sustainable fashion,” he added.

    Fed Brainard: Our policy guidance is premised on outcomes, not outlook

      Fed Governor Lael Brainard told CNBC that “our monetary policy forward guidance is premised on outcomes not the outlook” Hence, “it is going to be some time before both employment and inflation have achieved the kinds of outcomes that are in that forward guidance.”

      She acknowledged that the latest economic forecast is “considerably better outcomes both on growth as well as on employment and inflation.” But she reiterated, “that’s an outlook. We’re going to have to actually see that in the data. When you look at the data, we are still far from our maximum employment goal.”

      Brainard also said it’s “really important to recognize” the rise in inflation is “transitory”. “And following those transitory pressures associated with reopening, it’s more likely that the entrenched dynamics that we’ve seen for well over a decade will take over.”

      Fed minutes: Some time until substantial further progress made

        Minutes of March 16-17 FOMC meeting reiterated the assessment that it will take “some time” until “substantial further progress” is made towards Fed’s targets. The asset purchases will continue “at least at the current pace” until then. Also, if there would be any changes in the QE program, they would be communicated to the public “well in advance of time”.

        “Participants noted that it would likely be some time until substantial further progress toward the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals would be realized and that, consistent with the Committee’s outcome-based guidance, asset purchases would continue at least at the current pace until then,” the minutes said.

        Additionally, “a number of participants highlighted the importance of the Committee clearly communicating its assessment of progress toward its longer-run goals well in advance of the time when it could be judged substantial enough to warrant a change in the pace of asset purchases.”

        “The timing of such communications would depend on the evolution of the economy and the pace of progress toward the Committee’s goals.”

        Full minutes here.

        US oil inventories dropped -3.5m barrels, WTI staying in range

          US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -3.5m barrels in the week ending April 2, versus expectation of -2.0m. At 498.3m barrels, oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories rose 4.0m barrels. Distillate inventories rose 1.5m barrels. Propane/propylene inventories rose 0.3m barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories rose 2.3m barrels.

          WTI is staying in sideway pattern from 57.31 and outlook is unchanged. With 62.22 resistance intact, the correction from 67.83 could still extend lower. Break of 57.31 will target 38.2% retracement of 33.50 to 67.83 at 54.71. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 62.22 will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 67.83. high.

          Fed Evans: Policy likely on hold for some time

            Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he’s “optimistic that the economy is poised for strong growth later this year.” By the end of next year, Fed’s goal of ful employment would be “within sight”.

            However, “some even higher rates of inflation are needed to get inflation to average 2 percent and to solidify inflation expectations about that number,” he said. “So, I see the need for continued accommodative monetary policy to reach our goals.”

            The conditions for tapering asset purchases, “will not be met for a while,” he added. “Policy is likely on hold for some time.”

            US trade deficit widened to USD 71.1B in Feb, as exports and imports fell

              US goods and services export dropped -0.7% mom to USD 258.3B in February. Goods and services exports dropped -2.6% mom to USD 187.3B. Trade deficit widened to USD 71.1B, from January’s USD 67.8B, larger than expectation of USD 70.2B.

              Trade deficit with China rose USD 3.1B to USD 30.3B. Deficit with Canada rose USD 2.2B to USD 4.0B. Deficit with Mexico dropped USD -5.1B to USD 6.8B.

              Full release here.

              Fed Kaplan: We’re not out of the woods yet

                Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said in a WSJ interview, “there’s reason to be optimistic about the future.” But he emphasized that “we’re not out of the woods yet”. And, “reducing stimulus when the pandemic abates and more economic progress is made will help keep the recovery going

                “When we’re in the middle of a crisis, we should be aggressively using our tools, so I agree with what we’re doing now in terms of asset purchases and stance of policy generally,” Kaplan said

                UK PMI services finalized at 56.3, composite at 56.4,

                  UK PMI Services was finalized at 56.3 in March, up sharply from February’s 49.5. That’s also the first expansionary reading above 50 since October 2020. PMI Composite was finalized at 56.4, up from prior month’s 49.6, best reading for six months.

                  Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “Around two-thirds of the survey panel forecast an increase in output during the year ahead, which reflected signs of pent up demand and a boost to growth projections from the successful UK vaccine rollout…. There were further signs that strong cost pressures have spilled over from manufacturers to the service economy, especially for imported items.”

                  Full release here.

                  ECB Knot: There is very good reason to expect robust recovery in H2

                    ECB Governing Council member, Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot, said “there is very good reason to expect a robust recovery in the second half of the year.” And, “if the economy develops according to our baseline, we will see better inflation and growth from the second half onwards.”

                    “In that case, it would be equally clear to me that from the third quarter onwards we can begin to gradually phase out pandemic emergency purchases and end them as foreseen in March 2022,” he added.

                    Knot was also comfortable with higher nominal rates, if they are “entirely due to higher inflation expectations”. “To the extent that higher nominal yields are driven by better inflation and growth prospects, to me that’s entirely benign.”

                     

                    Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 53.2, increasingly adapted to life with the virus

                      Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 49.6 in March up from February’s 45.7. PMI Composite was finalized at 53.2, up from prior month’s 48.8, highest level since last July. Looking at some member states, Germany PMI Composite was finalized at 57.3, a 37-month high. Ireland PMI Composite rose to 8-month high at 54.5, Italy rose to 8-month high at 51.9, Spain rose to 8-month high at 50.1, France rose to 7-month high at 50.0.

                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “The survey therefore indicates that the economy has weathered recent lockdowns far better than many had expected, thanks to resurgent manufacturing growth and signs that social distancing and mobility restrictions are having far less of an impact on service sector businesses than seen this time last year. This resilience suggests not only that companies and their customers are looking ahead to better times, but have also increasingly adapted to life with the virus.”

                      Full release here.

                      Euro turning around, a look at EUR/CAD, EUR/GBP and EUR/USD

                        Euro seems to building up the technical conditions for a broad-based, sustainable rebound. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/CAD had reversed most of the losses of last two weeks, after rather brief downside breakouts. Attention would now be on whether these pairs could break through some near term resistance levels to confirm the turnaround.

                        Loss of downside momentum is clear in the bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD in EUR/CAD. It could have made a short term bottom at 1.4723, just ahead of 161.8% projection of 1.5798 to 1.5313 from 1.5783 at 1.4707. Firm break of 1.4792 resistance should indicate that EUR/CAD is possibly the whole fall from 1.5978. There is prospect of stronger rebound towards 1.5313 support turned resistance in this case.

                        Similarly, loss of downside momentum is clear in EUR/GBP too, as seen in daily and 4 hour MACD. A shot term bottom might be formed at 0.8470, just ahead of 100% projection of 0.9499 to 0.8670 from 0.9291 at 0.8462. Break of 0.8644 resistance should bring stronger rebound towards 0.8861 support turned resistance.

                        As for EUR/USD, a short term bottom was formed at 1.1703, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Break of 1.1988 resistance will add to the case that whole correction from 1.2348 has completed. Further rally would then be seen to 1.2242 resistance for confirmation.

                        Australia AiG construction rose to 61.8, record high

                          Australia AiG Performance of Construction rose 4.4 pts to 61.8 in Mar ch, hitting a record high. Also, the indexes for new orders, employment and supplier deliveries all hit record highs.

                          HIA Economist, Angela Lillicrap, said: “Activity is being driven to new heights by a combination of the HomeBuilder program, record low interest rates and shifts in population away from apartments and capital cities towards detached housing and regional areas. The record volume of work will see home building absorb workers from across the economy in 2021 and into 2022. The outlook for multi-units, unfortunately, will remain poor in the absence of overseas migrants, students and tourists.”

                          Full release here.

                          ECB Wunsch: Our fiscal response was more efficient

                            ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said monetary stimulus is “never a piece of cake”. He added, “I can’t promise that when we can start discussing an exit — and I hope we can within a reasonable time frame — that it’s going to be completely smooth.”

                            Wunsch also said EU’s combination of national and combined fiscal measures has been “appropriate”. Fiscal support is “much more focused than in the U.S. We’ve taken timely, temporary and targeted measures,” he said. “We have automatic stabilizers in Europe that they don’t have in the U.S. So in a way our fiscal response was more efficient.”

                            IMF raises 2021 global growth forecast, a way out of crisis increasingly visible

                              In the World Economic Outlook update, IMF upgraded growth forecast for advanced economy and the whole world in 2021. In a blog post, Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, said, “even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible.”

                              “Economies also continue to adapt to new ways of working despite reduced mobility, leading to a stronger-than-anticipated rebound across regions,” she added. “Additional fiscal support in large economies, particularly the United States, has further improved the outlook.”

                              Global output growth forecast is raised by 0.5% to 6.0% in 2021, and by 0.2% to 4.4% in 2022. US growth is upgraded by 0.8% to 5.1% in 2021, and by 0.5% to 3.6% in 2022. Eurozone growth was raised slightly by 0.2% to 4.4% in 2021, and by 0.2% to 3.8% in 2022. Japan growth was raised by 0.2% to 3.3% in 2021, and by 0.1% to 2.5% in 2022. UK growth was raised by 0.8% to 5.3% in 2021, and by 0.1% to 5.1% in 2022. Canada growth was raised by 1.4% to 5.0% in 2021, and 0.6 to 4.7% in 2022. China growth was raised by 0.3% to 8.4% in 2021, left unchanged at 5.6% in 2022.

                              Full report here.

                              Eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 8.3% in Feb, EU at 7.5%

                                Eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3% in February, worse than expectation of 8.1%. But January’s figure was revised up from 8.1% to 8.3%. EU unemployment rate was also unchanged at 7.5% in February.

                                In the EU, estimated 15.693 million men and women were unemployment, up 34k from January. 13.571m people were unemployed in Eurozone, up 48.k from prior month.

                                Full release here.

                                Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose to 13.1, expectations building on accelerated vaccination

                                  Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose to 13.1 in April, up from 5, well above expectation of 6.7. That’s also the highest level since August 2018. Current situation index rose from -19.3 to -6.5, highest since February 2020. Expectations index rose from 32.5 to 34.8, an all-time high.

                                  Sentix said: “Investors are building their expectations on accelerated vaccination success across the EU. The economic recovery process is supported by a massive expansion of fiscal policy. Investors even expect the fiscal impulse to expand. Since at the same time there are no signs of a significant departure from the expansive monetary policy of the central banks, the applied inflationary pressure remains high. Significant inflationary risks are in place for the coming months.”

                                  Germany overall investor confidence index rose from 11.9 to 20.0, highest since August 2018. Current situation index rose from -9.5 to 4.5, highest since January 2020. Expectations index rose from 35.8 to 36.8.

                                  USA overall index rose from 25.5 to 38.6, new record and 12th increase in a row. Current situation index rose from 9.0 to 30.0, highest since February 2020. Expectations index rose from 43.3 to 47.5, a record high.

                                  Global overall index rose to 20.5 to 26.8, highest since February 2018. Current situation index rose from 5.5 to 16.3, highest since May 2019. Expectations index rose from 36.5 to 37.7, record high.

                                  Full release here.

                                  RBA stands pat, recovery well under way but price pressures subdued

                                    RBA kept monetary policy settings unchanged as widely expected, including cash rate and 3-year yield target at 0.10%. Also, parameters of the Term Funding Facility and asset purchases are maintained.

                                    The central bank reiterated that recovery in Australia is “well under way and is stronger than had been expected”. Recovery is “expected to continue, with above-trend growth this year and next”. But wage and price pressures are “subdued” and are expected to “remain so for some time”. Underlying inflation is expected to “remain below 2 per cent over the next few years”.

                                    It also kept the pledge to ” maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions until its goals are achieved”. Conditions for a rate hike is not expected to be met “until 2024 at the earliest”.

                                    Full statement here.

                                    S&P 500, DOW hit new record as up trend continue

                                      US stocks surged sharply overnight, with S&P 500 and DOW closing at new record highs. S&P 500 rose 1.44% or 58.04 to 4077.91. It’s now close to 61.8% projection of 2191.86 to 3588.11 from 3233.94 at 4096.82. Based on current momentum, this projection is more likely to be taken out decisively than not. In that case, sustained trading above 4096.82 will confirm strong underlying medium term momentum, and pave the way to 100% projection at 4630.19. In any case, for now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 3853.50 support holds.

                                      DOW has already taken out equivalent level, 61.8% projection of 18213.65 to 29199.35 from 26143.77 at 32932.93. S&P 500’s reaction to 4096.82 would help double confirm DOW’s medium term upside momentum. We’re looking at 100% projection at 37129.47 as next target. In any case, DOW will stay bullish as long as 32071.41 support holds.

                                      China Caixin PMI services rose to 54.3, economy continued to recover

                                        China Caixin PMI Services rose to 54.3 in March, up from 51.5, above expectation of 51.7. Markit noted that business activity and sales both rose at quicker rates. Employment returned to growth. Business confidence also hit highest for over a decade amid hopes of post pandemic recovery. PMI composite also picked up to 53.1, from February’s 51.7.

                                        Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “To sum up, the economy continued to recover from the epidemic…. The recovery in manufacturing slowed for the fourth straight month, whereas for services, it expanded at a much faster pace… More attention still needs to be paid to inflation going forward. Input costs and output prices in the services and manufacturing sectors have been rising for several months, reflecting growing inflationary pressure. This has restricted the room for future policy changes and is not conducive to a sustained economic recovery in the post-epidemic period.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Fed Mester: We’ll see a very strong second half of the year

                                          Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in a CNBC interview that “we’ll see a very strong second half of the year”. However, ” we are still far from our policy goals,” referring Fed’s dual mandate.

                                          The March non-farm payrolls report was a “great” one. But Mester added, “we need more of them coming our way.” “I think we need to be very deliberately patient in our approach to monetary policy.”

                                          Mester was not concerned with this year’s rise in treasury yields. “I think the higher bond yields are quite understandable in the context of the improvement in the economic outlook. The increase has been an orderly increase,” she said. “So I’m not concerned at this point with the rise in yields. I don’t think there’s anything for the Fed to react to.”