UK claimant counts rose 10.1k in Mar, unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% in Apr

    UK Claimant Count rose 0.4% mom, or 10.1k to 2.7million in march. The level was still 114.3%, or 1.4m, above March 2020. Though, it has been relatively stable since May 2020.

    Unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% in the three months to February, down from 5.0%, better than expectation of a rise to 5.2%. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 4.4% 3moy versus expectation of 4.2%. Average earnings including bonus rose 4.5% 3moy, below expectation of 4.8%.

    Full release here.

    RBA: Household and businesses adjustment to fiscal support tapering an important near term issue

      In the minutes of April 6 meeting, RBA said economic recovery was “expected to continue”, with “above-trend” growth forecast in 2021 and 2022. But an important near-term issue was “how households and businesses would adjust to the tapering of several fiscal support measures”. There might be a “temporary pause” in the pace of labor market improvements.

      It also reiterated that “wage and price pressures had remained subdued and were expected to remain so for several years”. It would “take some time” to reduce the spare capacity to generate wage growth that’s consistent with the inflation target. Annual CPI was expected to rise “temporarily” to around 3% in the middle of the year on “reversal of some pandemic-related price reductions”. But underlying terms inflation was expected to “remain below 2 per cent over both 2021 and 2022.”

      Overall, RBA maintained target for cash rate and 3 year AGS yield at 0.10%, as well ass the settings for Term Funding Facility and government bonds purchases. The board does not expect the conditions for raising interest rates to be met “until 2024 at the earliest”.

      Full minutes here.

      BoJ Kuroda: We’re not at a stage to debate ETF exit

        BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that it’s too early to consider exit from ETF purchases. “When we are to unload our ETF holdings, we will set guidelines on how to do this at a policy-setting meeting,” Kuroda told parliament. “But we’re not at a stage now to debate an exit.”

        Separately, it’s reported that BoJ is considering to downgrade inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year. The central bank expected core consumer prices to be at 0.5% this fiscal year. But cuts in mobile phone charges could push core inflation by around -0.2%. BoJ will release updated quarterly forecasts at its policy meeting on April 26-27.

        Bundesbank: Germany economic output decreased in Q1

          In the monthly report, Bundesbank said Germany economic output decreased in Q1. Stricter and longer-lasting restrictions increased the losses in many service sectors.

          Industrial production fell in February as “supply bottlenecks for preliminary products must have played an important role in the decline.” Automotive industry was “particularly hard hit”. However, there was no renewed demand problem, as incoming orders “rose significantly again” in February, and have now “recovered considerably from the slump in the previous year”.

          Full release here.

          BoE and Treasury to create a Central Bank Digital Currency Taskforce

            BoE and UK Treasury announced to jointly create a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Taskforce today, to “coordinate the exploration of a potential UK CBDC”. The Taskforce will be co-chaired by BoE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe, and Treasury’s Director General of Financial Services, Katharine Braddick.

            BoE also noted there was not decision yet on whether to introduce a CBDC. But it will “engage widely with stakeholders on the benefits, risks and practicalities of doing so”.

            Additionally, a CBDC Engagement Forum is created to “engage senior stakeholders and gather strategic input on all non-technology aspects of CBDC.” A CBDC Technology Forum  is created to “engage stakeholders and gather input on all technology aspects of CBDC from a diverse cross-section of expertise and perspectives.”

            Full release here.

            EUR/USD breaks 1.2 handle as Dollar selloff resumes

              EUR/USD’s rally resumes in early European session and it finally takes out 1.2 handle with some power. The solid support from 55 day EMA affirms near term bullishness. The development is also inline with out view that correction from 1.2348 has completed with three waves down to 1.1703. We’d now expect further rally back to 1.2242/2348 resistance zone.

              Japan exports surged 16.1% yoy in March, imports rose 5.7% yoy

                Japan’s exports rose 16.1% yoy in March to JPY 7378B, as led by exports of autos, plastics and non-ferrous metals. That’s the first double-digit annual growth in more than three years. Though, the growth rate was skewed by the low base effect due to the pandemic. Exports to China was up 37.2% yoy, to US up 4.9% yoy, to EU up 12.8% yoy. Imports rose 5.7% yoy to 6714B. Trade surplus came in at JPY 663.7B.

                In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 4.3% mom to JPY 6524B. Imports dropped -0.7% mom to 6226B. Trade balance turned to JPY 298B surplus.

                Bitcoin completing terminal triangle, setting up for medium term correction

                  Bitcoin was in heavy selloff during the weekend, together with other crypto currencies. There’s unconfirmed news that the US Treasury is going to tighten up regulations to crackdown money laundering with digital assets. The selloff was also seen as hangover of Coinbase listing on NASDAQ last week. Some believed it’s related to the blackout in China’s Xinjiang region, which caused almost half of Bitcoin network to go offline in 48 hours.

                  Technically, the decline wasn’t much a surprise to us. We have been seen price actions from 20283 as developing in to a five-wave terminal triangle. The break through 60726 to 64828 was a bit stronger than expected. But that’s kept by upper trend line of the triangle nonetheless.

                  Immediate focus is now on 55555 support, which is close to lower trend line of the triangle. Firm break there should confirm the start of a larger correction, to the whole up trend from 4000 (Mar 2020). The eventual depth of the correction would depend on the strength of the interim rebound. But we’d tentatively put 38.2% retracement of 4000 to 64828 at 41591 as target. That’s also close enough to top of prior range of 20283/41964.

                  Eurozone CPI finalized at 1.3% yoy in March, EU at 1.7% yoy

                    Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.3% yoy in March, up from February’s 0.9% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+0.57%), followed by energy (+0.43%), food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.24%) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.09%).

                    EU CPI was finalized at 1.7% yoy, up from February’s 1.3% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-2.0%), Portugal, Malta, Ireland and Slovenia (all 0.1%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Poland (4.4%), Hungary (3.9%), Romania and Luxembourg (both 2.5%). Compared with February, annual inflation fell in three Member States, remained stable in three and rose in twenty one.

                    Full release here.

                    Eurozone exports dropped -5.5 yoy in Feb, imports dropped -2.7% yoy

                      In February, Eurozone exports of goods to the rest of the world dropped -5.5% yoy to EUR 178.6B. Imports from the rest of the world dropped -2.7% yoy to EUR 161.0B. Trade surplus came in at EUR 17.7B, down from EUR 23.4B a year ago. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 1.7% yoy to EUR 164.8B.

                      In seasonally adjusted terms, Eurozone exports dropped -2.5% mom. Imports rose 3.4% mom. Trade surplus narrowed to EUR 18.4B, below expectation of EUR 25.4B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose from EUR 5.4B to EUR 168.4B.

                      Full release here.

                      New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing rose to 63.6 on strong production and new orders

                        New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index jumped 9.4 pts to 63.6 in March, highest since the survey began in 2002. Looking at some details, production jumped from 58.4 to 66.8. Employment jumped from 50.2 to 53.5. New orders rose from 58.0 to 72.5.

                        BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said “The two major sub-index values of Production (66.8) and New Orders (72.5) were the main drivers of the March result, with the latter experiencing its first post 70-point value.  This does indicate a swift shift in demand over a relatively short time, which may indicate a move towards previously shelved projects and business ventures that have now been given the green light”.

                        Full release here.

                        China GDP grew record 18.3% yoy in Q1, March data strong

                          China’s GDP grew a record 18.3% yoy in Q1, but missed expectation of 18.8% yoy slightly. The data was distorted by the low base as the economy was choked by the outbreak of coronavirus in Wuhan last year, which quickly spread to the world, and it’s still spreading. Nevertheless, the annual growth was still the strongest since record began in 1992.

                          March economic data was solid too. Retail sales rose 34.2% yoy versus expectation of 27.2%. Industrial production rose 14.1% yoy, missed expectation of 15.6% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 25.6% ytd yoy, above expectation of 25.3%. Overall, the economy is on track to beat the government’s annual target of 6% GDP growth.

                          BoJ Kuroda: It’s still possible to achieve 2% inflation target

                            BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated to the parliament today that there is no need to change the 2% inflation target. He expected inflation to be negative for now due to the impacts of the pandemic. But consumer prices will “rebound thereafter, gradually accelerate the pace of increase.” “It will take time, but it’s still possible to achieve our 2% inflation target,” he said.

                            Kuroda also said he hoped to deepen the debate with global central bankers on the role of monetary policy in addressing climate change. “There are many factors we need to take into account, such as how this will affect distribution of resources,” he said. “We hope to deepen debate in international meetings. I’m not saying we won’t think about possibilities at all.”

                            Fed Mester not concerned with inflation moving too high

                              Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in a speech that, “while the economy is still far from our policy goals of maximum employment and price stability, progress is being made and the economic outlook is brightening”.

                              “Sizable support from fiscal and monetary policy, vaccination deployment, and the resiliency shown by households and businesses, all point to a pickup in activity in the second half of this year and for continued progress, albeit uneven progress, as some sectors recover faster than others,” she added.

                              In the Q&A session, Mester said she expects the US economy to grow by 6% or more this year. Unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5% or even lower by year-end. She noted that uptick inflation expectations is due to improvements in economic outlook. “I’m not too concerned about inflation moving too high at this point,” she said.

                              Gold in strong bullish run, targets 1828 fibonacci level next

                                Gold’s strong rally today should now have 1755.29 resistance taken out firmly, completing a double bottom reversal pattern (1676.54, 1677.69). The development is also the first sign that whole correction from 2075.18 has completed with three waves down to 1676.65, after hitting channel support.

                                Further rise is now expected back to 38.2% retracement of 2075.18 to 1676.65 at 1828.88. Sustained break there will further affirm this bullish case, and target channel resistance (now at 1886) for confirmation. Rejection by 1828.88, however, will retain bearishness for another decline. But after all, for now, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1723.53 support holds, in case of retreat.

                                US Empire State manufacturing rose to 26.3, Philly Fed manufacturing rose to 50.2

                                  US Empire State Manufacturing general business conditions rose to 26.3 in April, up from 17.4, well above expectation of 18.2. That’s also a multi-year high, well past the levels prior to the pandemic. 39% of respondents reported that conditions improved, while 12% reported that conditions worsened.

                                  Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing current index rose from 44.5 to 50.2 in April, highest in nearly 50 years. Nearly 59 percent of the firms reported increases in current activity this month; only 8 percent reported decreases.

                                  US retail sales rose 9.8% mom in March, ex-auto sales up 8.4% mom

                                    US retail sales rose 9.8% mom to USD 619.6B in March, well above expectation of 5.5% mom. That’s the best figure since Mary 2020. Ex-auto sales rose 8.4% mom, above expectation of 4.8% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 9.7% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales rose 8.2% mom.

                                    Full release here.

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped to 576k lowest since March 2020

                                      US initial jobless claims dropped -193k to 576k in the week ending April 10, well below expectation of 700k. That’s also the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -47k to 683k, lowest since March 14, 2020 too.

                                      Continuing claims rose 4k to 3731k in the week ending April 3. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -98k to 3763k, lowest since March 28, 2020.

                                      Full release here.

                                       

                                      BoJ downgrades assessment of Hokkaido and Tohoku regions

                                        In BoJ’s Regional Economic Report, assessments for two regions, Hokkaido and Tohoku, were downgraded. Hokkaido’s economy has “remained in a severe situation” and has been “more or less flat. Tohoku’s economy has “picked up as a trend” but impact of resurgence of coronavirus appears to be “growing recently”. Assessments of Hokuriku, Kanto-Koshinetsu, Tokai, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku and Kyushu-Okinawa were left unchanged.

                                        Overall, BoJ said, “many regions — while noting that their economy had remained in a severe situation due to the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), primarily in consumption of services — reported that, on the whole, it had been on a pick-up trend or had started to pick up.”

                                        Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at the quarterly meeting of regional branch managers, “the pace of the recovery will be modest as caution over the pandemic remains.” Also, “services consumption will remain under pressure for the time being due to a resurgence in COVID-19 infections since last autumn.”

                                        Full report here.

                                        Australia employment grew 70.7k in Mar, hours worked back at pre-pandemic level

                                          Australia employment grew 70.7k in March, double of expectation of 35.0k. However, growth was mainly driven by part-time jobs, which increased 91.5k to 4.20m. Full-time jobs contracted by -20.8k to 8.87m. Unemployment rate dropped to 5.6%, down from 5.8%, better than expectation of 5.7%. participation rate rose 0.2% to 66.3%, a record high. Monthly hours worked rose 2.2% mom or 38m hours, back to pre-pandemic levels.

                                          Full release here.