Wed, Oct 09, 2024 @ 02:18 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 310

Live Comments

Latest

Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose to 21.0, but there are increasing signs of being overstimulated

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose sharply to 21.0 in May, up from 13.1, well above expectation of 14.0. That’s also the highest level since March 2018. Current situation index turned positive from -6.5 to 6.3, highest since May 2019. Expectations index rose from 34.8 to 36.8, hitting another record high.

    Sentix said: ‘This is very unusual and underlines that the very expansive monetary and fiscal policy that has been in place for a year has not failed to have an effect on the real economy.” Though it also warned, “there are increasing signs that the economy is being overstimulated. This is evident in individual sectors that report shortages of materials. However, the strong global economy is having an even stronger impact on commodity prices and thus on inflation.”

    Germany overall index rose from 20.0 to 26.1, highest since March 2018. Current situation index rose form 4.5 to 15.3, highest since May 2019. Expectations rose from 36.8 to 37.5, record high.

    Full release here.

    Bitcoin extending rebound, but near term upside potential limited

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      Bitcoin retreated to 52960 last week but set a base there. Rebound from 47112 resumes today and is now heading back to 60k handle or above. Still, we’d continue to view current rise as the second leg of the medium term corrective pattern from 64848 high only. Hence, bitcoin should start to feel heavy as it approaches this resistance, which shouldn’t be taken out decisively.

      We’d expecting another falling leg and break of 52960 will target 47112 support and below. The corrective pattern might complete only after testing 38.2% retracement of 4000 to 64828 at 41591, which is close to the top of prior range of 20283/41964.

      ECB Lane: We can increase or decrease our asset purchases after June

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        In an interview by Le Monde, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that “from now on, the economy will be growing quickly, but from a subdued level”. Eurozone will only get back to its 2019 GDP level “around this time next year”. Unemployment rate will only fall back to 2019 levels “in 2023”. Hence, “it’s a long journey”, which still requires “sustained” fiscal and monetary efforts.

        Lane also said that despite the increases in some Eurozone bond yields, they “remain relatively low and anchored”. He reiterated ECB’s commitment to “maintain favorable financing conditions”. The “significantly” higher level of asset purchases announced in March will continue over the coming weeks. The pace of purchases will be reviewed at the June meeting. He added, “we can increase or decrease our purchases depending on what is necessary to keep financing conditions favorable.”

        Full interview here.

        CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY preparing to extend up trend

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          Yen opened the week generally lower, and selloff could accelerate further, in particular against commodity currencies. CAD/JPY is still leading the way and is now eyeing 90 handle. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 88.28 resistance turned support holds. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 77.91 to 88.28 from 85.40 at 91.80, which is close to 2019 high at 91.62.

          After some jitters, NZD/JPY also breach 79.19 resistance today, and look set to resume medium term up trend. Sustained trading above 79.19 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 68.86 to 79.19 from 75.61 at 81.99. This bullish case will remain in favor as long as 77.68 support holds, in case of retreat.

          Similarly, AUD/JPY also breaches 85.43 resistance today, suggesting that the medium term up trend is ready to resume. Sustained trading above 85.43 will bring further rise to 61.8% projection of 73.13 to 84.53 from 83.04 at 90.64 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 83.91 support holds.

          Australia NAB business confidence and condition rose to new records

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            Australia NAB business confidence jumped from 17 to 26 in April, a new survey high. Business conditions rose from 24 to 32, also a record high. The condition sub-component were also at record high. Trading condition rose from 35 to 40. Profitability rose from 25 to 33. Employment condition also rose from 15 to 22.

            NAB said: “The April survey result is simply stunning – with many variables reaching survey highs. Conditions reset last month’s high, driven by further gains across trading conditions, profitability and employment. Confidence has also set a new high – pointing to ongoing strength in conditions in the near term.

            “It looks like we have moved past the rebound phase of the recovery and are now seeing healthy growth in most of the economy. After lagging in the rebound phase, the services sectors are now showing strength. Retail continues to see healthy conditions but does have slightly softer confidence than the other industries suggesting less improvement from the already high level in conditions”.

            Full release here.

            Australia retail sales rose 1.3% mom in march, Victoria and WA led

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              Australia retail sales rose 1.3% mom in March, slightly below the preliminary results of 1.4% mom. Comparing with March 2020, sales rose 2.2% yoy. Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys said: “Victoria (3.5 per cent) and Western Australia (5.5 per cent) led rises at the state and territory level, following falls in February associated with local coronavirus lockdowns. Queensland (-0.5 per cent), which saw a short lockdown at the end of March, partially offset these increases.”

              Overall, retail sales volume dropped -0.5% in March quarter. James said: “The quarterly volume fall was driven by households spending patterns gradually returning to those seen before COVID-19. Food retailing (-2.7 per cent) led the falls while household goods also fell (-1.6 per cent). The falls were partially offset by a rise in cafes, restaurants and takeaways (5.8 per cent), as eating out increased, while functions and events continued to return.”

              Full release here.

              Canada employment dropped -207k, unemployment rate rose to 8.1%

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                Canada employment dropped -207k, or -1.1% in April, larger than expectation of -160.5k decline. Full times jobs dropped -129k, or -0.8%. Part-time jobs dropped -78k, or -2.3%. Unemployment rate jumped sharply by 0.6% to 8.1%, above expectation of 7.8%.

                Full release here.

                US NFP grew just 266k, well below expectation

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  US non-farm payroll employment grew just 266k in April, well below expectation of 950k. Prior month’s figure was also revised down from 916k to 770k. Total non-farm employment was still down -8.2m, or -5.4%, comparing to pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Unemployment rate edged up to 6.1%, above expectation of 5.7%. Labor force participation rate rose 0.2% to 61.7%. Wage growth, however, was strong, with average hourly erarnings up 0.7% mom, versus expectation of 0.1% mom.

                  Full release here.

                  German industrial production rose 2.5% in March, France industrial output up 0.8% mom

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    Germany industrial production rose 2.5% mom in March, versus expectation of 2.0% mom. Compared with February 2020, the month before the pandemic, production was still -4.3% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms. Exports rose 6.5% mom while exports rose 1.2% mom. Trade surplus came in at EUR 14.3B.

                    France industrial output rose 0.8% mom in March, below expectation of 2.0% mom. manufacturing output rose 0.4% mom. Compared to pre-pandemic February 2020, industrial output remained -5.9% down, manufacturing -6.8% down. France trade deficit came in at ER -6.1B, larger than expectation of -5.4B.

                    ECB Kazaks: The size of PEPP package is not an absolute truth

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said that “flexibility is at the very core of PEPP”, referring to the central bank’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program. “If financial conditions remain favorable, in June we can decide to buy less.”

                      He added that there is not reason to believe that PEPP program will extend beyond the March 2022. ECB might even complete the program without using up the entire envelop of EUR 1.85T, depending on economic developments. “The size of the package is not an absolute truth,” he said. “If the economy performs nicely, it’s quite likely that we will not need to spend everything.”

                      Still,he emphasized that it’s “premature” to talk about stimulus exit due to high uncertainty. “If the inflation outlook remains like the current forecast when PEPP ends, I think we would certainly discuss increasing APP,” Kazaks said.” Monetary policy will remain very accommodative. If necessary we can also devise new instruments.”

                      DOW hits new record as focus turns to non-farm payrolls

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        US non-farm payroll report will be a main focus today. Markets are expecting strong 950k growth in April, with unemployment rate down from 6.0% to 5.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.1% mom. Looking at related data, ISM manufacturing dropped from 59.6 to 55.1, but stayed well in expansion. ISM services employment rose from 57.2 to 58.8. ADP employment showed 742k growth. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped to 560k. Overall, it’s just a matter of how strong the job market rebound had been.

                        DOW outperformed other major US indices and surged 0.93% to new record high at 34548.53 overnight. The strong close suggests that up trend is maintaining solid momentum. We’d expect current rise to target 100% projection of 18213.65 to 29199.35 from 26143.77 at 37129.47 next. In any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 33687.01 support holds.

                        China exports rose 32.3% yoy in Apr, imports up 43.1% yoy, surplus swelled to USD 42.9B

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          In USD term, in April, China’s total trade rose 37.0% yoy to USD 485B. Exports rose 32.3% yoy to USD 264B. Imports rose 43.1% yoy to USD 221B. Trade surplus came in at USD 42.9B, up from March’s 13.8B, well above expectation of USD 28.0B.

                          Year to date in April, total trade rose 38.2% yoy to USD 1789B. Exports rose 44.0% yoy to 974B. Imports rose 31.9% yoy to 816B. Trade surplus came in at USD 158B.

                          • YTD with EU, total trade rose 38.2% yoy to USD 250B. Exports rose 46.6% to USD 150B. Imports rose 35.7% to USD 100B.
                          • YTD with US, total trade rose 61.8% yoy to USD 222B. Exports rose 60.8% yoy to USD 161B. Imports rose 64.7% yoy to USD 60B.
                          • YTD with Australia, total trade rose 32.0% yoy to USD 68.1B. Exports rose 40.9% yoy to USD 19.3B. Imports rose 28.7% yoy to USD 48.8B.

                          China Caixin PMI services rose to 56.3, composite rose to 54.7

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            China Caixin PMI Services rose to 56.3 in April, up from 54.3, above expectation of 54.2. There was steeper increase in activity amid strongest upturn in sales for five months. Quicker rise in employment helped easing capacity pressures. Optimism towards the year ahead remained historically sharp. PMI Composite rose to 54.7, up from 53.1.

                            Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “To sum up, the post-epidemic manufacturing and services recovery accelerated as both supply and demand expanded. Business confidence was high amid strong overseas demand and improved employment. Services recovered faster than manufacturing. Inflation will be a focus in the future. Inflationary pressure was evident as input costs and output prices in manufacturing and services have continued to increase for several months.”

                            Full release here.

                            RBA discussed upside and downside scenarios in SoMP

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              In the Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA reiterated that it’s “committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target”. The conditions for raising the cast rate is unlikely to be met “until 2024 at the earliest”.

                              RBA also discussed both an upside and a downside scenario. In the upside scenario, stronger household consumption and reduced uncertainty about the outlook would “underpin faster growth in business investment and employment” and “puts additional downward pressure on the unemployment rate”. Unemployment would fall below 4%, and inflation back within target range by mid-2023.

                              On the other hand, in the downside scenario, household prefer to continue strengthening their balance sheets. Lower consumption growth would weigh on business income, and prompting delay in investment, as well as slower employment growth. Unemployment rate will remain at around 5.25-5.50%, while underlying inflation will remain below 2%.

                              Full SoMP here.

                              Gold breaks 1800 as rally resumes, 1828 fibonacci level next

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Gold’s rally from 1677.69 finally resume today by breaking through 1797.71 resistance. Further rise should now be seen to 38.2% retracement of 2075.18 to 1676.65 at 1828.88 first. Break there will target medium term channel resistance at 1865.65 next.

                                We’re favoring the case that correction from 2075.18 has completed with three waves down to 1676.65 already. Sustained break of the channel resistance will add more credence to this view. Stronger rise should then be seen to 1959.16 structural resistance for confirmation. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1756.01 support holds.

                                BoE press conference live stream

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -
                                  YouTube

                                  By loading the video, you agree to YouTube’s privacy policy.
                                  Learn more

                                  Load video

                                   

                                  US initial jobless claims dropped to 498k, lowest since March 14, 2020

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped -92k to 498k in the week ending May 1, below expectation of 540k. That’s also the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -61k to 560k, lowest since March 13, 2020 too.

                                    Continuing claims rose 37k to 3690k in the week end April 24. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -6.8k to 3676k, lowest since March 28, 2020.

                                    Full release here.

                                    BoE stands pat, but Haldane voted to cut asset purchases

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      BoE kept monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Bank rate is held at 0.10% on unanimous vote. Asset purchase target was kept at GBP 895B in total. Chief economist Andy Haldane surprisingly dissented, “preferring to continue with the existing programme of UK government bond purchases but to reduce the target for the stock of these purchases from £875 billion to £825 billion.”

                                      The MPC will “continue to monitor the situation closely” and taken whatever action is necessary”. Also, “the Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.”

                                      The central bank said economic activity is expected to “rise sharply” in Q2 and GDP would recovery to pre-Covid level “over the remainder of this year”, in absence of most restrictions.

                                      In the economic projections conditioned on constant interest rate at 0.10%, 2021 GDP growth growth is upgrade to 7.25% (from 5.0%). But 2022 projection was lowed to 5.75% (down from 7.25%). Growth is expected to slow back to 1.25% in 2023.

                                      CPI inflation forecast was raised to 2.50% in 2021 (from 2%), lowered to 2% in 2022 (from 2.25%), and kept unchanged at 2.0% (2023).

                                      Full statement here.

                                      Full monetary policy report here.

                                      Uk PMI services finalized at 61.0, surge of pent up demand started to flow through

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        UK PMI Services was finalized at 61.0 in April, up from March’s 56.3. That’s also the highest reading since October 2013. Job created accelerated to five-and-a half year high. Input cost inflation also intensified. PMI Composite was finalized at 60.7, up from March’s 56.4, a seven-and-a-half year high.

                                        Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “April data illustrates that a surge of pent up demand has started to flow through the UK economy following the loosening of pandemic restrictions, which lifted private sector growth to its highest since October 2013. The roadmap for reopening leisure, hospitality and other customer-facing activities resulted in a sharp increase in forward bookings and new project starts across the service sector. If the rebound in order books continues along its recent trajectory during the rest of the second quarter, then service sector output growth looks very likely to surpass the survey-record high seen back in April 1997.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        GBP/CHF building a base, some BoE previews

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          BoE is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged today. Bank rate will be held at 0.10%. Government bond purchase target will be kept at GBP 876B, corporate debts target at GBP 20B. Focuses will be on new economic projections, as well as any hints on tapering.

                                          GDP growth forecast for 2021 could be upgraded from February’s 5% to 6-8%. Unemployment rate could be seen as peaking at just above 6% in Q2, comparing to 7.8% as estimated in February.

                                          BoE could hold their cards to chest on tapering, and wait for more information regarding reopening of the economy and developments. There could be some form of communications at June meeting, while tapering might begin in August. Still, the BoE would still use up the entire target of GBP 875B to purchase government bonds.

                                          Some previews here:

                                          GBP/CHF’s pull back from 1.3070 has been clearly losing downside momentum in the past two weeks, as seen in 4 hour MACD. But there is no clear sign of a sustainable rebound yet. It could still take some more time to form a base.

                                          Nevertheless, we’d continue to expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1683 to 1.3070 at 1.2540 to complete the correction. Break of 1.2814 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.3070. Break there will resume larger up trend from 1.1102, for 1.3310 resistance.

                                          Load more

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.