Fed Michelle Bowman has made her hawkish stance clear on the pressing issue of inflation that continues to grip the US economy. In a speech today, Bowman emphasized the persistence of inflationary pressures, signaling the need for a more restrictive monetary policy to anchor inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.

“Inflation continues to be too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the Committee to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time to return inflation to our 2 percent goal in a timely way,” Bowman stated.

Bowman pointed to the latest inflation reading based on the PCE index, noting a rise in overall inflation driven, in part, by escalating oil prices. “I see a continued risk that high energy prices could reverse some of the progress we have seen on inflation in recent months,” she warned.

Also, Bowman cited the Summary of Economic Projections released during the September FOMC meeting, where “the median participant expects inflation to stay above 2 percent at least until the end of 2025.” This expectation of prolonged inflationary pressures aligns with Bowman’s perspective that “further policy tightening” will be instrumental in steering inflation back towards target.

Full speech of Fed Bowman here.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard said the economic outlook is “solid” as supported by consumer spending. However, business spending has been “lackluster” with soft sentiment. And, lower inflation expectations could be entrenched if Fed allows inflation to run below target for too long. And, that would make it even hard for Fed to cushion the next downturn.

She expressed her support for a rate cut as “taking into account the downside risks at a time when inflation is on the soft side would argue for softening the expected path of monetary policy according to basic principles of risk management.”

Though, she added, “of course, my judgment about the actual path of policy will continue to be influenced by the evolution of the data and the risks.”

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren warned that “the economy remains fragile”. He’s concerned that a second wave of coronavirus infections this fall and winter is “likely” which could cause some states to “impose new restrictions on mobility and face-to-face interactions”. Additionally, additional fiscal support “seems unlikely to materialize any time soon”.

“It would have been fine if the pandemic lasted three months, but the pandemic isn’t lasting three months,” Rosengren said. “It’s lasting much longer than that and so there’s definitely a need for more targeted spending.”