US CPI surged to 4.2% yoy, core CPI at 3.0% yoy

    US CPI rose 0.8% mom in April, well above expectation of 0.2% mom. CPI core rose 0.9% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.2% yoy, up from 2.6% yoy, above expectation of 3.6% yoy, higest level since September 2008. CPI core accelerated to 3.0% yoy, up from 1.6% yoy, above expectation of 2.3% yoy. The’s well above Fed’s target of 2%.

    Full release here.

    EU upgrades 2021, 2022 growth forecast, shadow of COVID-19 beginning to lift

      In the Spring 2021 Economic forecast of European Commission, Eurozone GDP forecast was upgraded up to 4.3% in 2021 (from 3.8), and 4.4% in 2022 (from 3.8%). Eurozone inflation is projected to jumped to 1.7% in 2021, but fall back to 1.3% in 2022. Eurozone unemployment rate is projected to rise to 8.4% in 2021, then fall back to 7.8% in 2022. EU GDP projection was upgraded to 4.2% in 2021 (from 3.7%), and 4.4% in 2022 (from 3.9%).

      Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People said: “While we are not yet out of the woods, Europe’s economic prospects are looking a lot brighter. As vaccination rates rise, restrictions ease and people’s lives slowly return to normal, we have upgraded forecasts for the EU and euro area economies for this year and next. The Recovery and Resilience Facility will help the recovery and will be a real game changer in 2022, when it will ramp up public investments to the highest level in over a decade. Much hard work still lies ahead, and many risks will hang over us as long as the pandemic does. Until we reach solid ground, we will continue to do all it takes to protect people and keep businesses afloat.”

      Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy said: “The shadow of COVID-19 is beginning to lift from Europe’s economy. After a weak start to the year, we project strong growth in both 2021 and 2022. Unprecedented fiscal support has been – and remains – essential in helping Europe’s workers and companies to weather the storm. The corresponding increase in deficits and debt is set to peak this year before beginning to decline. The impact of NextGenerationEU will begin to be felt this year and next, but we have much hard work ahead – in Brussels and national capitals – to make the most of this historic opportunity. And of course, maintaining the now strong pace of vaccinations in the EU will be crucial – for the health of our citizens as well as our economies. So let’s all roll up our sleeves.”

      Full release here.

      Eurozone industrial production rose only 0.1% mom in Mar, EU up 0.6% mom

        Eurozone industrial production rose only 0.1% mom in March, well below expectation of 0.6% mom. Production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 1.9%, energy by 1.2% and intermediate goods by 0.6%, while production of capital goods fell by -1.0% and durable consumer goods by -1.2%

        EU industrial production rose 0.6% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases were registered in Denmark (+4.9%), Lithuania (+4.5%) and Bulgaria (+3.7%). The largest decreases were observed in Luxembourg (-4.4%), Belgium (-4.0%) and Finland (-2.1%).

        Full release here.

        Uk GDP grew 2.1% mom in March, still -5.9% below pre-pandemic level

          UK GDP grew 2.1% mom in March, well above expectation of 1.3% mom. That’s the fastest monthly growth since August 2020. For the month, service sector grew 1.9% mom, production grew 1.8% mom, construction rose 5.8% mom. Still GDP is -5.9% below the pre-pandemic level since in February 2020, and -1.1% below the initial recovery peak in October 2020.

          For Q1, GDP contracted -1.5% qoq, versus expectation of -1.6% qoq. Household expenditure dropped -3.9% qoq. GFCF dropped -2.3% qoq. GDP per head dropped -1.6% qoq.

          Full GDP release here.

          Also released, industrial production rose 1.8% mom, 3.6% yoy in March versus expectation of 1.0% mom, 2.8% yoy. Manufacturing production rose 2.1% mom, 4.8% yoy, versus expectation of 1.0% mom, 3.8% yoy. Goods trade deficit narrowed to GBP -11.7B, smaller than expectation of GBP -14.5B.

          NASDAQ could build a base after late rebound

            While US stocks tumbled sharply initially overnight, the late rebound in NASDAQ was rather impressive. It drew support from just above 61.8% retracement of 12397.05 to 14211.57 at 13090.19 and rebounded, closing down just -0.09%. There is prospect of building a base at current levels.

            Overall, current fall from 14211.57 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 14175.11. Sustained break of 55 H EMA (now at 13607.86) will argue that the leg has completed and bring retest of 14211.57 high. Though, another fall through 13090.19 will bring deeper fall to 12397.05 key support.

             

            Fed Harker: Recovery is still a work in progress

              Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said in a speech, “we’ll keep the federal funds rate very low and continue making more than $100 billion in monthly Treasury bond and mortgage-backed securities purchases. While the economic situation is improving, recovery is still a work in progress, and there’s no reason to withdraw support yet.

              “With so much fiscal support and monetary accommodation, there is some upside risk to increased inflation, and we will continue to monitor that closely. But for now, I’m forecasting 2.3 percent headline inflation for 2021 with core inflation at 2 percent,” he added.

              Later he added, inflation is “not only a number”, but also “the rate of change”. He said 3% is probably the maximum inflation he would like to see. But he’d be more comfortable with inflation at around 2.5%. “We don’t want inflation to run out of control,” he said.

              Fed Bullard: It’s too early to talk taper here

                St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC, “I think it’s too early to talk taper here”. And, “we’re going to let the chair open that discussion when he thinks it’s appropriate.”

                “We’re not quite out of the pandemic yet,” he added. “Once we get out of the pandemic, then I think it will be time to look at whether monetary policy can change.”

                “I don’t think you really want to change policy while you’re still in the pandemic tunnel. Even though you can sort of see the end of the tunnel, we’re not there yet, and we’ve got to push hard till we get all the way to the end,” he said.

                Fed Brainard: Weak job data underscores the value of patience

                  Fed Governor Lael Brainard said that the weak April NFP report “reminds us that realized outcomes can diverge from forward projections and underscores the value of patience”. Also, “to the extent that supply chain congestion and other reopening frictions are transitory, they are unlikely to generate persistently higher inflation on their own.”

                  “Remaining patient through the transitory surge associated with reopening will help ensure that the underlying economic momentum that will be needed to reach our goals as some current tailwinds shift to headwinds is not curtailed by a premature tightening of financial conditions,” she said.

                  ECB Knot expects more than 4% growth over the full year

                    ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said yesterday, “we can take comfort that the euro area in the coming months will take the exact same trajectory, services will also pick up, we expect more than 4% growth over the full year.” Further, he added, “I would argue that there is still significant upside risk actually, and that has to do with pent-up demand.”

                    “Traditionally we have been very conservative within the ECB, assuming in our baseline projections that the savings rate would just return to its pre-corona level, that there would be no pent-up demand taking place,” Knot said. “I personally think that’s a bit of an overly conservative assumption.”

                    Nevertheless, inflation is still too low and ECB would need to provide abundant support even if the PEPP purchases end in 2022. “The only thing we are talking about is rotation from emergency support to other forms of unconventional support,” he said, “we will still have the old asset purchase programme, we will still have the negative interest rates in place and most importantly, the targeted longer-term refinancing operations to the banks.”

                    Fed Mester: No back to normal until a broader vaccination rate

                      Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that while April job report was “disappointing”, “outlook is still bright”. She said, “no doubt we are in a recovery but will see some ups and downs.”

                      She wanted to see “see more strength in labor market and expecting that this year.” But, “until we get a broader vaccination rate, we won’t be back to normal.”

                      On inflation, she noted that readings will be “elevated” for the next few months “because of math”. “Inflation will end the year above 2% but next year, as supply constraints ease, will come back down.”

                      Nikkei down -900pts, but not out yet

                        The steep -909.75 pts, or -3.08% decline in Nikkei earlier today looks rather scary. Yet, overall outlook isn’t that bearish yet. The index is still holding in the triangle pattern from 30714.52 high. It’s kept inside medium term raising channel, holding well above 38.2% retracement of 22948.47 to 30714.52 at 27747.88. Hence, the long term up trend remains intact.

                        At this moment, deeper pull back cannot be ruled out based on global market development. We’d believe that 27747.88 fibonacci support is the key to level to defend. Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as it holds. But a firm break there would argue that a medium term correction is already underway.

                        German ZEW jumped to 84.4, highest in two decades

                          Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped to 84.4 in May, up from 70.7, well above expectation of 71.0. That’s the highest level since in two decades since 2000. Germany Current Situation index improved to -40.1, from -48.8, above expectation of -42.6. Eurozone Economic Sentiment rose to 84.0, up from 66.3, above expectation of 71.2. Eurozone Current Situation rose 14.1 pts to -51.4.

                          “The slowing down of the third COVID-19 wave has made financial market experts even more optimistic. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in the May survey has reached its highest level in more than 20 years. The assessment of the economic situation has also improved noticeably. The experts expect a significant economic upswing in the coming six months. The economic outlook for the euro area and the United States has improved considerably as well,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach on current expectations.

                          Full release here.

                          ECB Villeroy: Any suggestion of reduction in PEPP is purely speculative

                            ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau the PEPP asset purchase program will continue until at least March 2022. “Any suggestion of a reduction in our purchases before then – what is sometimes called by the technical term tapering or phasing-out – is purely speculative”, he said.

                            He added that even if the central was to ease back on the program, broader monetary policy stance would remain accommodative.

                            BoJ members emphasized the importance of vaccination pace

                              In the Summary of Opinions of BoJ’s April 26-27 meeting, board members noted that risks to economic activity are “skewed to the downside” due to the impact of COVID-19, including the “current spread of variants” and “recent reinstatement of state of emergency”. Also uncertainties remain high, such as “progress with vaccinations”.

                              One member warned, “if vaccinations do not proceed smoothly in Japan in contrast to the progress abroad, it is concerning that the country might be left behind even in terms of economic growth.”

                              One member also noted, “in order to bring Japan’s economy back onto a growth path early, it is important to have an acceleration in the pace of vaccinations while mitigating deterioration in consumer sentiment and volatile movements in financial markets.”

                              Another member also said, “reflecting differences in progress with vaccinations and policy responses, varied and uneven developments have been seen across regions and industries, which can be characterized as K-shaped recovery”. The member added, “there is some possibility that the recovery will stall and policy responses will be terminated prematurely. There also are political and geopolitical risks to a certain extent.

                              Full Summary of Opinions here.

                              ECB Schnabel: German inflation may well exceed 3% this year

                                ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said that German inflation “may well exceed 3%” this year. Be she emphasized that “our monetary policy strategy is medium-term and that means that we look through all these short-term fluctuations”.

                                Separately, chief economist Philip Lane said yesterday that at June meeting, “we can increase or decrease our purchases depending on what is necessary to keep financing conditions favorable.”

                                Fed Daly: Not yet time to start thinking about relaxing accommodations

                                  San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said yesterday that with a job report like Friday’s NFP and the volatility, then, “we’re on a good path but we’re a long way from home”. “And when you’re a long way from home” she added, “it’s not yet time to start thinking about, thinking about, talking about relaxing the accommodations we’ve given.”

                                  She also noted that “bottlenecks” like shipping costs and lumber shortages would “cause inflation to pop in the next several months”. Inflation might rise above 2% level, but that’s going to be transitory in my judgment,” Daly said.

                                  Fed Evans looking for continued strong job growth for rest of the year

                                    Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told CNBC today that “hopefully it is a one month kind of thing associated with restarting the economy,” referring to the huge NFP data miss last week. He added, “I am looking for continued strong employment growth the rest of the year”.

                                    “Fed will have to watch carefully how wages impact inflation over time,” he said. “Inflation rates of 2.5% don’t bother me if they are leading the US to average 2% over time.”

                                    He also noted, it’s “going to take quite some time for Fed to see enough data to shift policy.”

                                    Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose to 21.0, but there are increasing signs of being overstimulated

                                      Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose sharply to 21.0 in May, up from 13.1, well above expectation of 14.0. That’s also the highest level since March 2018. Current situation index turned positive from -6.5 to 6.3, highest since May 2019. Expectations index rose from 34.8 to 36.8, hitting another record high.

                                      Sentix said: ‘This is very unusual and underlines that the very expansive monetary and fiscal policy that has been in place for a year has not failed to have an effect on the real economy.” Though it also warned, “there are increasing signs that the economy is being overstimulated. This is evident in individual sectors that report shortages of materials. However, the strong global economy is having an even stronger impact on commodity prices and thus on inflation.”

                                      Germany overall index rose from 20.0 to 26.1, highest since March 2018. Current situation index rose form 4.5 to 15.3, highest since May 2019. Expectations rose from 36.8 to 37.5, record high.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Bitcoin extending rebound, but near term upside potential limited

                                        Bitcoin retreated to 52960 last week but set a base there. Rebound from 47112 resumes today and is now heading back to 60k handle or above. Still, we’d continue to view current rise as the second leg of the medium term corrective pattern from 64848 high only. Hence, bitcoin should start to feel heavy as it approaches this resistance, which shouldn’t be taken out decisively.

                                        We’d expecting another falling leg and break of 52960 will target 47112 support and below. The corrective pattern might complete only after testing 38.2% retracement of 4000 to 64828 at 41591, which is close to the top of prior range of 20283/41964.

                                        ECB Lane: We can increase or decrease our asset purchases after June

                                          In an interview by Le Monde, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that “from now on, the economy will be growing quickly, but from a subdued level”. Eurozone will only get back to its 2019 GDP level “around this time next year”. Unemployment rate will only fall back to 2019 levels “in 2023”. Hence, “it’s a long journey”, which still requires “sustained” fiscal and monetary efforts.

                                          Lane also said that despite the increases in some Eurozone bond yields, they “remain relatively low and anchored”. He reiterated ECB’s commitment to “maintain favorable financing conditions”. The “significantly” higher level of asset purchases announced in March will continue over the coming weeks. The pace of purchases will be reviewed at the June meeting. He added, “we can increase or decrease our purchases depending on what is necessary to keep financing conditions favorable.”

                                          Full interview here.