RBA stands pat, no rate hike expected until 2024 earliest

    RBA left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected. Cash rate target and 3-year AGB yield target are both kept at 0.10%. Parameters of asset purchases are kept unchanged too. It maintained the pledge to keep “highly supportive monetary conditions” to support return to full employment and inflation consistent with target. Also, the conditions for rate hike are unlikely to be matched “until 2024 at the earliest.

    The central bank said economic recovery is “stronger than earlier expected and is forecast to continue”. The central scenario is for GDP to grow 4.75% this year and 3.50% next. Progress in reducing unemployment “has been faster than expected”. Further decline is unemployment rate to 5% by year end is expected. Inflation and wage pressures are “subdued”.

    At the July meeting, RBA will consider whether to move the target bond for the 3-year yield target to November 2024 bond. It will also decide then whether to extend the government bond purchase program after September.

    Full statement here.

    China Caixin PMI manufacturing rose to 52.0, recovery kept momentum

      China Caixin PMI Manufacturing rose to 52.0 in May, up from 51.9, above expectation of 51.7. Caixin said that total new business rose solidly, supported by stronger export sales. Production growth softened slightly due to supply chain strain. Staffing levels were broadly stable as companies faced steep rise in costs.

      Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “To sum up, manufacturing expanded in May as the post-epidemic economic recovery kept its momentum. Both domestic and overseas demand were strong and supply recovered steadily. The job market remained stable. Manufacturers stayed confident about the business outlook as the gauge for future output expectations was higher than the long-term average. Inflation was still a crucial concern as prices continued rising.”

      Full release here.

      Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 53.0, sustained improvement

        Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 53.0 in May, down from April’s 53.6. That signaled a softer but still moderate improvement in the health of the sector. There were further expansions in output and new orders, and second successive rise in employment levels. Positive sentiment remained elevated.

        Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “May data marked a sustained improvement in the health of the Japanese manufacturing sector, as the latest Manufacturing PMI painted a different picture to 12 months ago. A continued recovery from pandemic-related disruption has now extended to four months…. Japanese goods producers remained optimistic in the year ahead outlook for activity. Firms were hopeful that the pandemic would subside and induce a broad recovery in demand across the sector. IHS Markit estimates that industrial production will rise by 8.8% in 2021.”

        Full release here.

        Australia AiG manufacturing rose to 61.8, rapid pace of expansion maintained

          Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing rose 0.1 pt to 61.8 in May. That’s the eighth consecutive month of recovery for the MI, and the highest result since March 2018. It’s also the fourth highest reading on record. Six of seven activity indicators expanded, while only the exports active index indicated a contraction.

          Ai Group Chief Executive Innes Willox said: “Australia’s manufacturing sector maintained its rapid pace of expansion in May fuelled by strong demand from the construction sector, a pick-up in business investment and healthy demand from households…While the new Victorian lockdown will dampen enthusiasm somewhat, these conditions are likely to be setting the stage for a lift in investment by manufacturers.”

          Full release here.

          Also from Australia, current account surplus widened to AUD 18.3B in Q1, above expectation of AUD 17.8B. Company gross operating profits dropped -0.3% qoq in Q1, versus expectation of 3.6% qoq rise. Building permits dropped -8.6% mom in April, versus expectation of -10.1% mom. From New Zealand, building permits rose 4..8% mom in April.

          ECB Visco: Large and persistent rises in interest rates are not justified

            ECB Governing council member Ignazio Visco said that “uncertainty over the timing and the strength of the recovery require that financial conditions remain supportive for a long time.”

            “Large and persistent rises in interest rates are not justified by the current economic prospects and will be countered,” he emphasized. ECB was ready to make “full use of its already defined bond-buying programme.”

            OECD raises global growth forecast to 5.8% this year, but this is no ordinary recovery

              In the new economic outlook report, OECD raised global economic growth forecast to 5.8% this year, a “sharp upwards revision” from December’s projection of 4.2%. It said that “vaccines rollout in many of the advanced economies has been driving the improvement, as has the massive fiscal stimulus by the United States”. Growth is projected to slow to 4.4% next year.

              The organization warned that this is “no ordinary recovery” and is likely to “remain uneven and dependent on the effectiveness of vaccination programmes and public health policies.” Some countries like Korea and US are ” reaching pre-pandemic per capita income levels after about 18 months”. But, “much of Europe is expected to take nearly 3 years to recover”. Mexico and South Africa would take between 3 and 5 years.

              Full report here.

              New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to 1.8, economy struggling to keep up with demand

                New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to 1.8 in May, up from April’s -2.0, but well below preliminary reading of 7.0. Own activity outlook rose to 27.1, up from April’s 22.2, but below preliminary reading of 32.3.

                Looking at some more details, export intentions rose from 9.1 to 12.2. Investment intentions rose from 17.1 to 18.9. Cost expectations rose from 76.1 to 81.3. Employment intentions rose from 16.4 to 20.5. Pricing intentions rose from 55.8 to 57.4.

                ANZ said: “The New Zealand economy is struggling to keep up with demand, and cost and inflation pressures continue to build. Firms are having trouble sourcing inputs to production. We wouldn’t read too much into the drop in activity indicators in the second half of the month just yet, as it may have been influenced by Budget uncertainty. We won’t have to wait long to get a fresh read, with the preliminary June data due to be released on 9 June.”

                Full release here.

                China PMI manufacturing edged lower to 51.0, PMI non-manufacturing rose to 55.2

                  China official PMI manufacturing dropped slightly to 51.0 in May, down from 51.1, below expectation of 51.1. Looking at some details, production rose 0.5 to 52.7. New orders dropped to 51.3, while raw material inventory dropped to 47.7. New export orders also dropped to 48.2.

                  PMI non-manufacturing rose to 55.2, up from 54.9, above expectation of 52.7.

                  Japan industrial production rose 2.5% mom, retail sales rose 12% yoy

                    Japan industrial production grew 2.5% mom in April, below expectation of 4.1% mom. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expected output to contract -1.7% in May, followed by a 5.0% rebound in June.

                    Retail sales rose 12.0% yoy, below expectation of 15.4% yoy. Over the month, sales dropped -4.5% mom on a seasonally adjusted basis.

                    US PCE rose to 3.6% yoy, core PCE jumped to 3.1% yoy

                      US personal income dropped -13.1% mom, or USD 3.21T in April, slightly better than expectation of -14.0% mom. Personal spending rose 0.5% mom, or USD 80.3B, below expectation of 0.6% mom.

                      Headline PCE price index accelerated to 3.6% yoy, up from 2.4% yoy, above expectation of 2.2% yoy. Core PCE price index also jumped to 3.1% yoy, up from 1.9% yoy, above expectation of 3.0% yoy.

                      Full release here.

                      Eurozone economic sentiment rose to 114.5, close to Dec 2017 peak

                        Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose strongly to 114.5 in May, up from 110.5, above expectation of 112.1. The index scored markedly above its long-term average and pre-pandemic level. It was close to December 2017 peak. Employment Expectations Indicator rose 2.9 pts to 110.1.

                        Eurozone industry confidence rose from 10.9 to 11.5. Services confidence rose from 2.2 to 11.3. Consumer confidence rose from -8.1 to -5.1. Retail trade confidence rose from -3.0 to 0.4. Construction confidence rose from 3.0 to 4.9.

                        EU ESI rose 4 pts to 113.9. The ESI is well above its long-term average, and rose markedly in all of the six largest EU economies, mostly so in Italy (+11.0), followed by Poland (+5.1), France (+5.0), the Netherlands (+3.2), Germany (+2.8) and Spain (+2.3).

                        Full release here.

                        Swiss KOF rose to 143.2, very positive economic outlook for mid 2021

                          Swiss KOF economic barometer rose to 143.2 in May, up from 136.4. KOF said, “the outlook for the Swiss economy for the middle of 2021 can be regarded as very positive, provided that the containment of the virus continues to progress.”

                          KOF added: “The sharp increase is driven by bundles of indicators from the manufacturing sector and foreign demand. An additional positive signal is sent by indicators for accommodation and food service activities followed by indicators for the other services sector. By contrast, slight negative impulses are sent by private consumption.”

                          Full release here.

                          France household consumption dropped -8.3% mom in Apr

                            France household consumption expenditure dropped -8.3% mom in April. The decline was mainly due to manufactured goods purchases (–18.9%), during the third lockdown. Energy expenditure dropped slightly by -0.6%. Food consumption dropped -0.2%. Spending was -9.5% below its average level in Q4, 2019.

                            Also released, CPI came in at 0.3% mom, 1.8% yoy in May, matched expectations. GDP dropped slightly by -0.1% qoq in Q1. It stood -4.7% below prepandemic level in Q4 2019.

                            ECB Schnabel: Rising yields a natural development at a turning point

                              ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said, “rising yields are a natural development at a turning point in the recovery – investors become more optimistic, inflation expectations rise and, as a result, nominal yields go up.” “This is precisely what we would expect and what we want to see,” she said. Also, “financing conditions remain favorable.”

                              “We always have to be willing to reduce or increase asset purchases in line with our promise to keep euro area financing conditions favorable,” she added. “The recovery still depends on continued policy support. A premature withdrawal of either fiscal or monetary support would be a great mistake,”

                              “It’s likely that when the PEPP ends, we will not have reached our (inflation target),” Schnabel said. “In that case, we will continue to run a highly accommodative monetary policy also after the PEPP.”

                              BoJ’s asset holdings reached 1.3 times of nominal GDP in fiscal 2020

                                According to BoJ’s data, total assets held surged to JPY 715T in fiscal 2020, on the central bank’s massive purchases. It was 1.3 times the nominal GDP of Japan, at JPY 536T in the same fiscal year.

                                Of the assets, JGBs totaled JPY 532T, up 9.5% from a year earlier. Loans to financial institutions jumped 2.3 times to JPY 126T. ETS rose 20.7% to JPY 36T.

                                Separately, it’s reported that BoJ would extend the pandemic relief program by another six months, at its June 17-18 meeting.

                                Released from Japan, unemployment rate edged higher to 2.8% in April, up from 2.5%, above expectation of 2.7%. Tokyo CPI core dropped -2.0% yoy in May, unchanged from April’s reading.

                                Fed Kaplan: Wise to talk about moderating QE sooner rather than later

                                  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told CNBC, “sooner rather than later I think it would be wise to start talking about moderating some of these purchases that we put in place during the crisis.”

                                  “I think maybe the efficacy of these versus the side effects, I think that balance is changing as we’re emerging from the crisis and making progress,” he said.

                                  “Coming out of this pandemic, I think we’ve got some paradigm shifts,” he said. “There’s no textbook for this. You don’t want to be so preemptive that you choke off the recovery. On the other hand, you don’t want to be so late that you’re behind the curve.”

                                  US durable goods orders dropped -1.3% in Apr, first decline in a year

                                    US durable goods orders dropped -1.3% mom to USD 246.2B in April, worse than expectation of 0.8% mom rise. That’s the first contraction since eleven consecutive monthly growth. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 1.0% mom, above expectation of 0.7% mom. Ex-defense orders were virtually unchanged. Transportation equipment dropped -6.7m to USD 68.9B.

                                    Full release here.

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped to 404k, lowest since Mar 2020

                                      US initial jobless claims dropped -38k to 406k in the week ending May 22, better than expectation of 430k. That’s also the lowest level since March 14, 2020 (at 256k). Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -46k to 459k, lowest since March 14, 2020 too.

                                      Continuing claims dropped -96k to 3642k in the week ending May 15. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -2.75k to 3675k.

                                      Full release here.

                                       

                                      US GDP grew 6.4% annualized in Q1, unrevised

                                        According to second estimate, US GDP grew 6.4% annualized in Q1, unrevised. Upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment were offset by downward revisions to exports and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up.

                                        Full release here.

                                        BoE Vlieghe: Probably take until Q1 to see when a rate hike is appropriate

                                          BoE policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe said in a speech that, his central scenario for the economy sees “somewhat more slack” that the MPC’s central projection. He worried that “the transition out of furlough does involve a modest rise in the unemployment rate”. But even in that case, “the first rise in Bank Rate is likely to become appropriate only well into next year, with some modest further tightening thereafter.”

                                          On the upside, “the transition out of furlough happen more smoothly” with unemployment at or at little below current levels by year end, and with associated signs of upward inflation and wage pressure beyond the temporary and base effect. Then, “a somewhat earlier rise in Bank Rate would be appropriate”.

                                          Still, “It would probably take until the first quarter of next year to have a clear view of the post-furlough unemployment and wage dynamics, so a rise in Bank Rate could be appropriate soon after, along a slightly steeper path than in my central case.”

                                          Full speech here.